AHC: Somaliland internationally recognised

Since 1991, the north-western third of Somalia has been the de facto independent but unrecognised 'Republic of Somaliland', which in stark contrast to the rest of Somalia, is somewhat stable and pirate-free, but is not recognised by any other country (but has informal ties to several nations, including Ethiopia, Djibouti and the UK).

So what POD would be required to make this aspiring nation an official member of the international community? Is it even possible? If not, what is it's logical future, with the rest of Somalia being what it is at the moment?

Somaliland needs to become a lot more like Qatar and the UAE.

What, full of oil and gas? Could you possibly expand on that a little as I'm not really quite sure what you mean. Thanks.

Lots of oil?

Western nations recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia after they secede from Georgia, following the fall of the USSR, thus establishing a precedent. Somaliland comes next, followed by Kosovo.

Orville_third said:

Western nations recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia after they secede from Georgia, following the fall of the USSR, thus establishing a precedent. Somaliland comes next, followed by Kosovo.

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I think it would be better to have the West and Russia agree to recognize South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Kosovo at the same time sort of a trade dealio

Somaliland only requires one of two things to become independent: recognition by a permanent member of the Security Council or a UN-recognised referendum on Somaliland independence.

My understanding is that the refusal of other governments to recognize Somaliland is based on a kind of domino-theory idea about borders and separatism in postcolonial Africa. Since basically all borders in modern Africa were drawn by Europeans in the 19th century, none of them have much relationship to the realities of distribution of tribal/national populations on the ground; they are, in that way, hardly justifiable. So, if Somalia (which is actually pretty homogenous) can be broken up, the thinking goes, so can any other African country. Obviously, other African governments don't really like this line of thinking, so they oppose recognizing Somaliland because it would set a precedent that would be used against many of them. I suppose Western governments go along with this idea on the theory that supporting the maintenance of existing borders (however flawed) helps preserve order (which is probably wrong).

With a post-1900 POD, I'm not really sure this problem can be gotten around.

Desmond Hume said:

My understanding is that the refusal of other governments to recognize Somaliland is based on a kind of domino-theory idea about borders and separatism in postcolonial Africa. Since basically all borders in modern Africa were drawn by Europeans in the 19th century, none of them have much relationship to the realities of distribution of tribal/national populations on the ground; they are, in that way, hardly justifiable. So, if Somalia (which is actually pretty homogenous) can be broken up, the thinking goes, so can any other African country. Obviously, other African governments don't really like this line of thinking, so they oppose recognizing Somaliland because it would set a precedent that would be used against many of them. I suppose Western governments go along with this idea on the theory that supporting the maintenance of existing borders (however flawed) helps preserve order (which is probably wrong).

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*cough*South Sudan*cough*

Incognito said:

*cough*South Sudan*cough*

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True, but isn't South Sudan a rather extreme exception? It only gained independence after something like 50 years of war, and from a regime that is somewhat more than typically awful and doesn't have a lot of friends internationally.

There's also the case of Eritrea, of course, but in its case and in South Sudan's case the governments of the countries they were seceding from decided to let them do so. So I guess the international community is willing to recognize secessions in Africa when the governments involved are willing to accept a change in their borders; but when there is a government like the Somali transitional government that insists on the integrity of its borders, the international community goes along with that, no matter how utterly incapable the "legitimate" government is of enforcing its claims.

British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland never unite. Then they could be 2 separate states, Somaliland and Somalia.

The best point of departure would have been 1961.
there was an attempted military coup in Somaliland where the soldiers wanted secession.
The soldiers who were mostly Sandhurst educated ,were upset after southern officers with less experience and qualifications were promoted over them.
The public at the time was pro-unity and did not support it, and the coup failed.

This attempt happened before the referendum of 1961, where there was massive vote rigging and corruption, and where relations started souring and Somalilanders started feeling like they were hoodwinked.
There was the Wanlaweyn incident during the referendrum, where the small village of Wanlaweyn in the south with less than 2000 people, less than half of that voting age, brought in more votes than Toghdeer the second most populated region in Somaliland with more than 250,000 people.

There were demonstrations and people for the first time started suggesting secession, this was mere months after the coup attempt.

My guess is that if the coup attempt happened it would have mass public support and would be successfull, and it may have led to a civil war and a negotiated secession as the UK and US would have stepped in.
In 1961 the UK was rebuffed by the somali government and it started leaning towards the soviets and signed a treaty with the the same year.

I think Desmond Hume is right. It is the domino theory that is holding other countries back from recognizing Somaliland. All Governments are reluctant to upset the status quo as long as it doesn't hurt their interests. African countries are especially worried about the change of borders of any nation as they themselves are vulnerable. South Sudan was recognized as it was after a prolonged civil war and the parent state had agreed to the separation of the South. Somaliland also could be recognized if Somalia accept their separation or the superpowers support their independence.

Desmond Hume said:

True, but isn't South Sudan a rather extreme exception? It only gained independence after something like 50 years of war, and from a regime that is somewhat more than typically awful and doesn't have a lot of friends internationally.

There's also the case of Eritrea, of course, but in its case and in South Sudan's case the governments of the countries they were seceding from decided to let them do so. So I guess the international community is willing to recognize secessions in Africa when the governments involved are willing to accept a change in their borders; but when there is a government like the Somali transitional government that insists on the integrity of its borders, the international community goes along with that, no matter how utterly incapable the "legitimate" government is of enforcing its claims.

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Right - this is actually the case in international law throughout the world, not just Africa. In general, secession is not recognized unless the governing being seceded from recognizes or permits it. This is why Kosovo was considered something of a risky precedent under international law, since Serbia never consented to its independence.

How about Mogadishu falling to the Islamic Courts, leaving Puntland as the main claimant to the Somali government on that side?

Moqadishu did fall to the courts, and so did nearly all of the south apart from
border towns manned by Ethiopian troops.
They reached Puntlands border as well and this was red line for Ethiopia as Puntland was a client, all of Ethiopias clients were defeated by the courts.
The situation was so dire that Puntlands leadership were playing both sides to survive. Sending a delegation to the courts promising to join them.( Several Puntland clans opened their own courts were allied to the courts)
Puntland also send a delegation to the Ethiopians begging for an intervention.

Somaliland remained aloof and confident in its millitary superiorty, having more men under arms and heavier equipment like T-55's and APC's/IFV's.
The problem was that Burco, Somalilands second city was the spiritual home of Somalias islamists, and was already under shariah law, and 2/3 of Somalilands
armed forces and the most heavily armed clans have islamist sympathies,
so it would not have come to a war, but a quick victory for the courts as large parts of the country joined willingly.



We all know what happened the courts rhetoric spooked the US, and they gave the green light for the Ethiopian invasion, and an estimated $200-$400 million alloted for food aid, that was spent on Chinese and North Korean weapons.

The courts were defeated and a fringe faction, that was suppressed by the courts called alshabab came to the fore.

Now the courts with their traditional islam and anarchistic loose organization were ideal for somalis, and most somalis took to them like fish to water.
But alshabab are so creepy, they freakout most somalis who see them us unnatural and foriegn.
These are the guys that Ayman alzawahiri, tried to stop from joining alqaeda, and then later after they joined, he publicly admonished them for being too extreme, and told them be more gentle.
No kidding videos are available on Youtube.

Thank you Ethiopia, and Thanks to the lowly bureaucrat in the US state department that authorized this.

SlideAway said:

Right - this is actually the case in international law throughout the world, not just Africa. In general, secession is not recognized unless the governing being seceded from recognizes or permits it. This is why Kosovo was considered something of a risky precedent under international law, since Serbia never consented to its independence.

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And thanks to the World Court, it is now a precedent.

Didn't the US just recognize the government of Somalia again after twenty years?