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Old January 16th, 2013, 08:27 PM
slydessertfox slydessertfox is online now
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WI: The Germans win the battle of Stalingrad?

So how would the war turn out if the Germans win the battle of Stalingrad (or better yet, they just bypass the city and go straight for the oilfields in the Caucasus)? How major of a blow to the Soviets would a complete German victory at Stalingrad be, and how would that play for the rest of the eastern front?

Also, what would it mean for the north african front?
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Old January 16th, 2013, 08:54 PM
Cymraeg Cymraeg is offline
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Originally Posted by slydessertfox View Post
So how would the war turn out if the Germans win the battle of Stalingrad (or better yet, they just bypass the city and go straight for the oilfields in the Caucasus)? How major of a blow to the Soviets would a complete German victory at Stalingrad be, and how would that play for the rest of the eastern front?

Also, what would it mean for the north african front?
That would require sane strategical thought from the Bohemian Corporal.
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Old January 16th, 2013, 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by slydessertfox View Post
So how would the war turn out if the Germans win the battle of Stalingrad (or better yet, they just bypass the city and go straight for the oilfields in the Caucasus)? How major of a blow to the Soviets would a complete German victory at Stalingrad be, and how would that play for the rest of the eastern front?

Also, what would it mean for the north african front?
1. Oil fields of the Caucasus - there were no army groups in front of there, so they probably can take it, yes. It's a major impact short term. Can they hold it? Huge question. Also depends on how far into the mountains they want to go, if they actually want to cross the Caucasus to get Baku it won't be pretty.

2. Complete victory - the Soviets abandoning the city, or actually capturing the defending army?

Either way, once they cross the Volga they are very vulnerable to a counterattack from the North. The Soviets were massing considerable reserves, which were mostly used to add men to the city fight meatgrinder while the trans-Volga counteroffensives were readied. Here they could be used differently.

3. North Africa? Why would it have any appreciable effect?
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Old January 16th, 2013, 09:57 PM
lionhead lionhead is offline
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Whatever the Germans would be doing they will have to rely on the weak Hungarian and Romanian division to cover their flanks, because the strong mobile Nazi troops where spearheading the advance into the Caucasus. The Soviets will eventually enmass their offensive and whether or not an entire German army has been destroyed at Stalingrad, they will break the Axis advance into the Caucasus. It migth take longer and will certainly cause even more casualties, but they will break them.
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Old January 16th, 2013, 10:01 PM
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Whatever the Germans would be doing they will have to rely on the weak Hungarian and Romanian division to cover their flanks, because the strong mobile Nazi troops where spearheading the advance into the Caucasus. The Soviets will eventually enmass their offensive and whether or not an entire German army has been destroyed at Stalingrad, they will break the Axis advance into the Caucasus. It migth take longer and will certainly cause even more casualties, but they will break them.
Depends on how much they commit and who is guarding the flanks, it could be that the entire force could be bagged if the Soviets are quick about it.
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Old January 16th, 2013, 10:11 PM
M79 M79 is offline
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When does the city fall?

If it falls early (August-September), then German forces can probably take the Caucasus and its oil fields along with Astrakhan and mark the southern objectives of Barbarossa. Germany gets *a lot* more oil and the USSR loses an opportunity to avoid having to cross the Volga. It might delay the war a few months (probably 6-8 tops) but otherwise unless the Soviets will regroup and retake. It also gives Germany over 200 Soviet factories that had been evacuated which could be harvested for machine tools or destroyed outright.

If it falls later (October-November) then minimal effect other than to delay the USSR by a month or two. Germany gets a little more oil and might destroy the refining capacity to keep it out of Soviet hands, otherwise much of the area will be destroyed just for denial.

Barring some serious reogranization or a German miracle the war *might* reach winter 1945 but not much else.
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Old January 16th, 2013, 11:41 PM
slydessertfox slydessertfox is online now
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Originally Posted by M79 View Post
When does the city fall?

If it falls early (August-September),.
This would be a good time.


Also, what if we add to the equation that under whatever circumstance, Hitler dies around this time, or is overthrown in some coup, or just loses power in some way. Would this also help the Germans' position?
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Old January 16th, 2013, 11:58 PM
Mosshadow Mosshadow is offline
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Didn't CalBear's "Anglo-American-Nazi War" TL use this as the POD? Try reading that, its great
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  #9  
Old January 16th, 2013, 11:58 PM
jc1987 jc1987 is offline
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The Russians if I am not mistaken, generally practice scorched Earth techniques. Would it have been possible for the Germans to have threatened the Caucasus enough to have scarred the Russians into burning their own oil fields?
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Old January 17th, 2013, 04:33 AM
phx1138 phx1138 is offline
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Originally Posted by M79
German forces can probably take the Caucasus and its oil fields along with Astrakhan...Germany gets *a lot* more oil
Does she? IIRC, the Sovs were busily destroying the facilities, & by the time the Germans got there, even with a much more rapid advance, there would have been no production coming out for the immediate term, nor even the readily forseeable future.
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Old January 17th, 2013, 04:57 AM
snerfuplz snerfuplz is offline
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The Russians if I am not mistaken, generally practice scorched Earth techniques. Would it have been possible for the Germans to have threatened the Caucasus enough to have scarred the Russians into burning their own oil fields?
Naw they wouldn't burn the oil fields just destroy the refineries and roads. The Germans would not be able to use the oil or at least not very much of it especially with a coming counter attack
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Old January 17th, 2013, 05:04 AM
jmc247 jmc247 is offline
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So how would the war turn out if the Germans win the battle of Stalingrad (or better yet, they just bypass the city and go straight for the oilfields in the Caucasus)? How major of a blow to the Soviets would a complete German victory at Stalingrad be, and how would that play for the rest of the eastern front?

Also, what would it mean for the north african front?
Lets say this happens and the Western Allies order Operation Sledgehammer to try to keep Russia in the war... the long term effects on the overall war certainly would be rather large.

Many English troops from North Africa would have to be used and Torch would be canceled.
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Old January 17th, 2013, 10:56 AM
slydessertfox slydessertfox is online now
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Originally Posted by jmc247 View Post
Lets say this happens and the Western Allies order Operation Sledgehammer to try to keep Russia in the war... the long term effects on the overall war certainly would be rather large.

Many English troops from North Africa would have to be used and Torch would be canceled.
After a quick look at the wiki article, it seems like the invasion would be a disaster.
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Old January 17th, 2013, 08:17 PM
lionhead lionhead is offline
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Originally Posted by jmc247 View Post
Lets say this happens and the Western Allies order Operation Sledgehammer to try to keep Russia in the war... the long term effects on the overall war certainly would be rather large.

Many English troops from North Africa would have to be used and Torch would be canceled.
Operation Sledghammer was planned for Fall 1942. If Stalingrad needs to be evaded or won then by that time its Winter 1942 so they would have already cancelled the plans. The Dieppe Raid made sure of that.
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Old January 17th, 2013, 08:45 PM
MUC MUC is offline
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How much dependent were the Soviets from the Caucasus oilfields? Do they have an alternate sufficient source of oil / stockpiles?
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Old January 17th, 2013, 09:16 PM
deathscompanion1 deathscompanion1 is offline
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They die in the snow.

The Russians have a hard few years but eventually push the Germans back.
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Old January 17th, 2013, 09:23 PM
RGB RGB is offline
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How much dependent were the Soviets from the Caucasus oilfields? Do they have an alternate sufficient source of oil / stockpiles?
Baku was a major source if not THE major source. The rest of Caucasus was also important.

Nobody has so far explained me how the Germans will reach Baku.
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  #18  
Old January 17th, 2013, 09:52 PM
Catspoke Catspoke is offline
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One can come up with a time line thats somewhat plausable where Stalingrad falls.

Take one of the better Luftwaffe General Wever lives scenerios. JU88 produced as a level bomber earlier, No ME210, a limited run of DO19 prototypes as FW200 replacements etc..

What you have is by late 41, early 42 a Luftwaffe that because of these PODs has an increase in reserves is able to keep up its strength through the attritional fighting, a more effective Luftwaffe in the Typhoon and Soviet counter attack stages of 41, with these butterflies the Germans avoid the Demanysk airlift so the Luftwaffe suffers further less losses.

So June 1942 arrives and you have a German offensive supported by much a larger Luftwaffe, with incremental increases in ground forces from having more Luftwaffe support over the fall and winter 41. Stalingrad is taken on the rush in early August 1942.

German drive in the Caucasus is reinforced and the Germans are able to take Grozny and cut the railway south from Asktrahan. Maybe the German could find a way over the mountains and get through to Tupase or Sochi or someplace further down on the Black Sea.

Its an awful long way to Baku though (most Soviet oil came from Baku), lots of difficult terrain, supply difficulties are immense, better air supply can help in some places, but the Soviets are also not tied down at Stalingrad, can use the Caspian as a supply route, had some intrinsic supply capability in the Caucasus as well as access to Allied Lend Lease from Persia.

Likely the intevitable Soviet counter attack comes just the same as OTL, the Germans don't have to have everything in Stalingrad and so don't suffer the complete OTL disaster, the Soviets can pick on the their Allies just the same, so the German have to pull back to the 1942 start lie eventually just the same as OTL (with less losses OTL).

Any German victory POD needs a collapse of the Soviet state/ system. There were times that was close perhaps, October 41, July 42, maybe a little better German performance at these critical times makes the Soviet system dysfunctional enough due to low morale, famine on the home front, other shortages, people not obeying orders, Stalin shot by more created enemies, etc... Things breaking down enough that a negotiated 1918 style peace with Germany is possible.

Without that its hard to see a German victory against the intevitable Soviet preponderance in resources+Lend Lease.

Last edited by Catspoke; January 17th, 2013 at 09:57 PM..
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Old January 17th, 2013, 10:23 PM
Henriksson Henriksson is offline
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Originally Posted by snerfuplz View Post
Naw they wouldn't burn the oil fields just destroy the refineries and roads. The Germans would not be able to use the oil or at least not very much of it especially with a coming counter attack
Not burn them, but definitely sabotage them so that not a single barrel of oil would come to German use before war's end.

Quote:
No one could have imagined that the Germans could pose such a threat to the Soviets’ main oil regions – Grozny and Baku. Few remember now that the oil industry lived through two evacuation waves: The first in November-December 1941 and the second in July-August 1942. This means that equipment, pipelines, and oil refining installations were dismantled and shipped from Krasnodar and Grozny to Baku. Then they were hastily brought back and, no sooner were they re-installed than two months later, they were sent back to Baku, and from there to the country’s heartland of the Volga region and Central Asia. Nikolai Konstantinovich especially distinguished himself during the second evacuation, when he led a special team to plug the wells and demolish installations and structures that were not evacuated. The enemy was unable to extract a single drop of oil from the holes cemented shut using Baibakov’s methods. After the war the holes were redrilled, producing oil once again. Stalin, impressed by how well Baibakov performed these tasks, awarded Baibakov the Order of Lenin, and in 1944 appointed him a People’s Commissar of Oil Industry.
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Last edited by Henriksson; January 17th, 2013 at 10:30 PM..
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  #20  
Old January 17th, 2013, 10:56 PM
snerfuplz snerfuplz is offline
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Not burn them, but definitely sabotage them so that not a single barrel of oil would come to German use before war's end.
Fascinating read thanks for the post
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