I've been doing some reading on the HRE lately, and the following thoughts are coming out of it.
Note, this is all for post-Investiture Controversy PODs. Focusing on the Staufen because they're the dynasty that OTL could have made it - a What If the Welfs Do is different.
Henry VI seems to have been in a fairly good position when he died. Not finished, by any means, but Lombardy is at least not actively in arms, Sicily is being tamed, and Germany isn't actively causing trouble either - nor is the Pope.
So IF the Staufen can focus on securing their holdings, in a way that doesn't draw them into continuous conflict with the Papacy (more on that below) they should probably be able to establish a formidable power base. Especially if Henry's attempt to make the emperorship hereditary works - it almost did OTL.
However, this is not the same as "all of the Empire is completely subject to the Emperor." It's more like a stronger version of the OTL Habsburgs - less internal fighting and more ability for the Emperor to lean on other parts of the empire than his own lands to get men and money, but ultimately the imperial position depends on the strength of the Imperial position within/without the Empire - which is to say, the amount the Emperor can get done depends on the imperial and imperial family lands rather than that whole state.
Until (unless?) some analogue to Richelieu comes along, which might be enough to shake up some things - but that's only workable if the imperial position is strong enough that the inevitable protests find themselves facing a stronger force than themselves.
It's not about a good Emperor. It's about having good organization. And that depends on the Emperor's subordinates more than him personally.
Conflict with the Papacy to a greater or lesser extent is pretty much inevitable. At best, the interests of the imperial position do not mix well with papal wishes of autocracy. However, there is no reason that conflict inevitably is an all consuming process for the Emperors - it will take time and it will take attention, but it is not a storm that cannot be weathered.
But if the Staufen or such emperors spend too much time threatening the papal position in Italy - and focusing on Italy as Frederick II did OTL most definitely counts - the Papacy is going to see this as a threat. Not just a competition that some popes will be more concerned about than others, but something where Imperial success is directly contrary to Papal concerns - up in Germany a strong Emperor can only indirectly threaten the Church, but in Italy, the more powerful the Imperial party is, the more likely the Pope is to be his puppet, or at least lapdog.
Which brings us back to the problem of consolidating power in Germany. The Staufen have a fairly significant demense. But it's not enough.
All in all, it's going to take some very delicate work to balance between imperial interests and effective relations with the Pope.
Trying to hold on to Sicily while trying to master Germany and northern Italy is probably not feasible. It's not outright impossible - but time spent dwelling on (and in) Sicily is time where German concerns are going to be "just make sure the princes stay quiet" and the Italian-Papal problem will fester.
On the other hand, just getting rid of Sicily won't do.
So all in all, what does this mean for AH writing? Well, it means that the Staufen are going to have to compromise somewhere. It means that the imperial position is going to be immensely difficult to convert into full dominion, but effective sovereignty is not impossible. It means that the Emperors are going to need something - the cities, perhaps? - to play against the German princes. And lastly, some dynastic luck - along the lines of the Capetian Miracle - would be extremely helpful in ensuring that the position stays with the Staufen so that they can keep things together - but this probably should be tied with the Erbreichsplan.
Thoughts, comments, additions?
Note, this is all for post-Investiture Controversy PODs. Focusing on the Staufen because they're the dynasty that OTL could have made it - a What If the Welfs Do is different.
Henry VI seems to have been in a fairly good position when he died. Not finished, by any means, but Lombardy is at least not actively in arms, Sicily is being tamed, and Germany isn't actively causing trouble either - nor is the Pope.
So IF the Staufen can focus on securing their holdings, in a way that doesn't draw them into continuous conflict with the Papacy (more on that below) they should probably be able to establish a formidable power base. Especially if Henry's attempt to make the emperorship hereditary works - it almost did OTL.
However, this is not the same as "all of the Empire is completely subject to the Emperor." It's more like a stronger version of the OTL Habsburgs - less internal fighting and more ability for the Emperor to lean on other parts of the empire than his own lands to get men and money, but ultimately the imperial position depends on the strength of the Imperial position within/without the Empire - which is to say, the amount the Emperor can get done depends on the imperial and imperial family lands rather than that whole state.
Until (unless?) some analogue to Richelieu comes along, which might be enough to shake up some things - but that's only workable if the imperial position is strong enough that the inevitable protests find themselves facing a stronger force than themselves.
It's not about a good Emperor. It's about having good organization. And that depends on the Emperor's subordinates more than him personally.
Conflict with the Papacy to a greater or lesser extent is pretty much inevitable. At best, the interests of the imperial position do not mix well with papal wishes of autocracy. However, there is no reason that conflict inevitably is an all consuming process for the Emperors - it will take time and it will take attention, but it is not a storm that cannot be weathered.
But if the Staufen or such emperors spend too much time threatening the papal position in Italy - and focusing on Italy as Frederick II did OTL most definitely counts - the Papacy is going to see this as a threat. Not just a competition that some popes will be more concerned about than others, but something where Imperial success is directly contrary to Papal concerns - up in Germany a strong Emperor can only indirectly threaten the Church, but in Italy, the more powerful the Imperial party is, the more likely the Pope is to be his puppet, or at least lapdog.
Which brings us back to the problem of consolidating power in Germany. The Staufen have a fairly significant demense. But it's not enough.
All in all, it's going to take some very delicate work to balance between imperial interests and effective relations with the Pope.
Trying to hold on to Sicily while trying to master Germany and northern Italy is probably not feasible. It's not outright impossible - but time spent dwelling on (and in) Sicily is time where German concerns are going to be "just make sure the princes stay quiet" and the Italian-Papal problem will fester.
On the other hand, just getting rid of Sicily won't do.
So all in all, what does this mean for AH writing? Well, it means that the Staufen are going to have to compromise somewhere. It means that the imperial position is going to be immensely difficult to convert into full dominion, but effective sovereignty is not impossible. It means that the Emperors are going to need something - the cities, perhaps? - to play against the German princes. And lastly, some dynastic luck - along the lines of the Capetian Miracle - would be extremely helpful in ensuring that the position stays with the Staufen so that they can keep things together - but this probably should be tied with the Erbreichsplan.
Thoughts, comments, additions?
