Do you think the world would be a better place had the CP won WW1?

Might sound like a simple question, but of course that depends heavily of what sort of conflict WW1 ended up being, and how the CP won it. It's not the same if they win an early knock-out victory against Russia alone in 1914 as if they finally wear down an Entente-sans-USA in 1918.

So what are your takes, ladies and gentlemen? What is better and what is worse than OTL, and overall, what outcome would you have prefered?

I'll go first;

The pros of a CP WW1 victory;

Avoids Nazis, Holocaust and WW2 (two first rather problable but the last by no means certain)

No or significantly less ethnic cleansing of Central Europe, preserving that quaint admixture of nationalities that was the hallmark of the AH Empire - even if the Empire itself did not survive.

All the "imprisioned nationalities of Russia" remain free, rather than revert under Soviet rule after WW1 and WW2 respectively.

If the war was short and much less destructive, that's a pro in and of itself. I have a very hard time seeing of the Entente could have won quickly though, so that would presuppose a CP victory.

Cons;

If there still is a WW2, the Germans are more likely to win, which more likely than not is a bad thing. I'm no Germanophobe, but I'm not thrilled by the idea of absolute Kaiserreich domination of Europe.

Like all empires it will eventually fall. There will be a World war 2 because scores will still have to be settled and it's human nature.

I agree much with Yogis analysis. It depends much on whether the Reichstag parties are in the postion to reform the Empire more liberal and democratic.

Cons:

Renewed political oppression in the Austro-Hungarian Empire; probably within Germany too, certainly against anti-war elements and in defence of the Prussian systems.

Kaiserreich economic and cultural domination of continental Europe for at least half a century; probably not a pleasant end when it eventually comes.

Expansive German Empire across Central Africa, with conditions strongly resembling Leopold II's Congo.

Entrenchment of the British empire for decades longer than in OTL. Violent suppression of anti-imperial movements at home and in the colonies.

Likely rise of fascism in France in the wake of defeat and subjugation by Germany; possible rise of fascism in Britain following humiliation of defeat and in light of the need to suppress internal dissent.

General turn against international trade which duly leads to less international co-operation than OTL (Europe is heavily restricted under German direction, Britain pursues Imperial Preference, America has fewer trading options so also goes down the route of isolation). The economic and diplomatic developments of OTL are retarded by several decades.

Possible Cold War between British and German Empires, with proxy wars in the far East and the recurring potential to go hot and turn into WWII.

Gregg said:

Cons:

Renewed political oppression in the Austro-Hungarian Empire; probably within Germany too, certainly against anti-war elements and in defence of the Prussian systems.

Kaiserreich economic and cultural domination of continental Europe for at least half a century; probably not a pleasant end when it eventually comes.

Expansive German Empire across Central Africa, with conditions strongly resembling Leopold II's Congo.

Entrenchment of the British empire for decades longer than in OTL. Violent suppression of anti-imperial movements at home and in the colonies.

Likely rise of fascism in France in the wake of defeat and subjugation by Germany; possible rise of fascism in Britain following humiliation of defeat and in light of the need to suppress internal dissent.

General turn against international trade which duly leads to less international co-operation than OTL (Europe is heavily restricted under German direction, Britain pursues Imperial Preference, America has fewer trading options so also goes down the route of isolation). The economic and diplomatic developments of OTL are retarded by several decades.

Possible Cold War between British and German Empires, with proxy wars in the far East and the recurring potential to go hot and turn into WWII.

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I don't know about that, I've never heard of anything that bad happening in Tanganika or German Southwest Africa.

Probably better since OTL was so bad. We probably got the 98 percentile worst result. But then again, we could end up with a worse outcome. Few saw in 1919 how a unemployed landscape painter would change the world. Now to reasons why better,

1) Likely shorter if no USA entry is POD. Also better for USA.

2) Germany is larger country than France. Germany may be strong enough to enforce TTL ToV.

3) Might avoid communism. By early 1916, it would be hard for things to end well for Russia, but even many bad results are much better than RCW and Stalin.

I think it massively depends on how the CP wins WW1.

If Britain stays neutral whether because it ignores the invasion of Belgium or Germany goes for an East first strategy and the war ends in 1915 then you would have a very different and much nicer world than if continual allied cockups manage to fritter away their big advantage and "lose"* in 1918/9**.

Assuming a Britain stays out because Germany goes east first then I suspect you'd have the best of all possible worlds.

Russia knocked out in 1915 means the collapse of the Tsarist regime but no Soviet union. Without the additional radicalisation the first Revolution sticks and you end up with a democratic liberal regime in charge.

Eastern Europe is freed from the Tsar and placed under German Dukes/Kings. Not perfect but a hell of a lot better than the alternatives.

France is probably forced to make peace after battering itself to death in Alsace-Lorraine and probably only makes some minor colonial and border concessions. The cause of Revanche is discredited and France is going to be a worse place than OTL but on the other hand they'll be more Frenchmen around.

Germany is better off because a.) it won meaning the crazies stay isolated on the political fringes and b.) no silent dictatorship post 1916, starvation etc. While post war Germany is going to be less democratic than Weimar the Social Democrats are inevitably going to get elected sooner or later and Wilhelm can't live for ever. Politically a slightly more repressive version of inter-war Britain holds some clues.

Belgium kept neutral and safe by British threats of intervention is much better off having not been invaded and looted and retains it's territorial integrity.

Britain is a million men and billions of pounds richer. The City remains the worlds financial capital and Ireland peacefully moves towards Home Rule. Some kind of Imperial Preference is probable and the pre-war trend of gradual reform continues, though with a much smaller government without the impetus of the War.

All in all a much better world.

*which is not the same a negotiated peace.

**Germany couldn't last beyond 1919 thanks to the British blockade, even with Brest Litovsk.

Abhakhazia said:

I don't know about that, I've never heard of anything that bad happening in Tanganika or German Southwest Africa.

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Really? The slavery (at a time when the British and French colonial powers in Africa at least paid the native labour a pittance)? The mass slaughter of the Herero and Nama (with survivors stripping the flesh from their families' skulls so they could be sent back to Germany for anthropolgical study)? The latter was actually a working model for the holocaust, replete with concentration camps, slaughter by medical authority, and the rhetoric of racial annihilation.

Abhakhazia said:

I don't know about that, I've never heard of anything that bad happening in Tanganika or German Southwest Africa.

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Herero and Namaqua Genocide

In my humble opinion, the answer is rather a matter of taste, or to put it a bit more bitter, prejudice. Many predictions are possible, and only the most extreme or illogical ones can be outright denied.

What I am personally convinced of: a continuation (and inevitable evolution) of the Habsburg monarchy is probably the best-case scenario for all of Franz Josef's nations, at least until 1995.
And: any outcome of the war which ends with Germany becoming a more constitutional (but still a) monarchy has the potential to do a lot more good than harm.

IMHO, the best case scenario would be a peace by attrition by late 1917 or in 1918, caused by continued US-neutrality (this sentence is not an accusation). A peace won by tired compromise.

Survival is the victory, glory is scarce, but there is also little humiliation. The positive tendencies during the 1920s, the beginnings of European (and especially Franco-Allemand) understanding, the slight rise of pacifism, would be strengthened by such an end to war, and lots of the evils of the 1920s/30s would be avoided.

Hörnla said:

IMHO, the best case scenario would be a peace by attrition by late 1917 or in 1918, caused by continued US-neutrality (this sentence is not an accusation). A peace won by tired compromise.

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The problem is such a result is highly unlikely. While Germany knocking Russia out of the war was a major success and France had problems the Allies simply had a much greater capacity to continue the war. The British blockade and Hindenburg and Ludendorff's mismanagement of the German economy meant that by the summer of 1919 Germany would be forced to surrender because of starvation and industrial collapse.

Abhakhazia said:

I don't know about that, I've never heard of anything that bad happening in Tanganika or German Southwest Africa.

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except for the genocide of the herero people?

How about a USA joining the CP? Perhaps Britain continues attacking US Shipping to CP nations and Germany stops(i.e. Wilheilm grows a brain and Britain gets a doseage of the idiot drug)?

IT also depends when the CP wins.

If the war in the west ends early (1914-early 1915) with German troops in Paris dictating peace to France and other entente powers seeking a negotiated settlement with the central powers, the German Empire will still retain the structure of a semi-democratic constitutional monarchy that might still continue to evolve into an even more democratic state. Austria-Hungary will have exacted all the revenge they feel they need on Serbia and reasserted hegemony on other parts of the Balkans, perhaps setting the stage for a liberalizing trend with respect to Czechs and some of the other minorities. Italy will have not even entered the war, probably eliminating the sort of nationalist revanchism that led to the rise of Fascism, and Russia might be more stable. The Ottomans would likely still retain hegemony over much of the Arab world. I think this would be better in many ways for the world than what happened in OTL. Only France will be a wild card, but an early defeat would at least have come at far less human cost.

If the war ended in 1918-1919 with Russia already beaten and communist, a successful German offensive and French (and to a lesser British) economic and morale collapse, the result might be just as bad as OTL, but in a different way. Germany would be a trimphant military dictatorship with neither the Kaiser nor the Reischtag having any real counterbalancing power. Russia would still collpase into Civil War, with Germany probably gobbling up everything it could and employing very draconioan tactics to pacify the local populations. Austria Hungary would also be on the verge of a collapse that might not be avoidable. Ditto the Ottoman Empire/Turkey. Whatever formal peace settlement that occurred would be far more punitive regarding France, Italy, and the Balkans, than what Versailles imposed on Germany. There would also be the matter of unconquered allied powers (Britain, Japan and the USA)that would be unwilling (for various reasons) to accept Germany reclaiming its overseas territories - something Germany would probably demand. About the only positive thing would be that Germany, at least, would not be that eager to start another major war and something as thorough and efficient as the Nazi holocaust against European jews and others would probably be avoided.

We`ve already had several of these threads before, and it always comes down to points of view. It rarely ended without someone getting kicked.

As for my opinion, I think one thing weighs more heavily in favour of a CP victory world being a better place than anything else: the extremely low chance of a WWII happening it provides. A victorious Central Powers scenario more often than not leaves its potential enemies too weak to challenge its power; France without Briey-Longwy loses approx 90% of its iron ore supply, and Brest-Litovsk cripples any industrialization plans for whoever is in charge of Russia. Then there is Britain, who, despite probably not being directly hurt in any way by its defeat, is too busy with the globe-spanning Empire to want a revanche.

Now, CP-victory Europe won`t be perfect to say the lest, but no WWII and no Hitler IMO outweighs anything the Kaiser`s rule would do to Europe and the world.

Gregg said:

Expansive German Empire across Central Africa, with conditions strongly resembling Leopold II's Congo.

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Only if somehow the HSF can sink the Royal Navy. Even in a victory scenario, Germany will probably end up losing some of its colonies, not gaining more.

Thoresby said:

The problem is such a result is highly unlikely. While Germany knocking Russia out of the war was a major success and France had problems the Allies simply had a much greater capacity to continue the war. The British blockade and Hindenburg and Ludendorff's mismanagement of the German economy meant that by the summer of 1919 Germany would be forced to surrender because of starvation and industrial collapse.

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That is if an Entente without American economic support doesn`t run out of money by late 1917.

I reckon they would gain more colonies. France would fall apart in a late CP victory. And the British just wouldn't bother fighting.

Dirk_Pitt said:

How about a USA joining the CP? Perhaps Britain continues attacking US Shipping to CP nations and Germany stops(i.e. Wilheilm grows a brain and Britain gets a doseage of the idiot drug)?

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Outright CP membership is unlikely, if only because it would be so unnecessary.

North America is a source of so much important stuff - oil, horses, grain and other foodstuffs, and much else besides - that simply cutting off trade (which could have happened anyway for financial reasons) would have been more than enough. Not to mention that without US loans, Britain would soon have found itself unable to bankroll France and other continental allies. No need to lose any American lives.

As to "better or worse" I suppose it depends on the pov. The Anglo-Saxon peoples benefit from no US casualties - and possibly a lot fewer British ones. If Hitler and Stalin are butterflied away (not guaranteed but highly probable) then Jews and Ukrainians ar likely to benefit. OTOH, not so great for France, Poland and various others.

Africa is probably a wash. It will be a ****hole, but when has it ever been anything else? Ditto, I imagine, for the Balkans. Expect nothing there and you won't be disappointed.

A CP victory over France in 1914, before BEF could really get into the swing of it, might ensure that Germany and Britain can work together again IF somebody can get Der Kaizer to take it down a notch or two. His way of rubbng the British the wring way was not conducive to anything.

It would be key to invite France into som sort of political "Primodial EU".

But it does not solve anything in the Balkans. AH felt that a show-down with Russia had to come and a "fizzle" in the East will justy postpone another war.

Whether Germany would have pursued a showdown later with Russia is a good question. If so, it could be an early WWII in the East only.

Slav nationalism woulod still be a problem, especially for AH.

So, if a CP victory also could mean that AH is disolved in a more democratic fashion, the outlook might be a lot better.

I do also support that a CP victory might have meant no WWII and that was rather bad for all.

Ivan