Best outcome for the Chinese
- Thread starter Tony
- Start date
Er, what PoDs?
In a general sense, and assuming (because of forum) no pre-1900 PoDs (so no "Genghis Khan isn't born" or "Ming fall later" things), it seems like the fall of the Qing could work out enormously better for China. I suppose it's too late to have the Qing reform and avoid the whole thing altogether, but it seems like there ought to be plausible PoDs which avoid the country falling apart and going through thirty-odd years of fighting before reuniting. That would save millions of lives, which is obviously much better for everyone involved, and it seems like it would aid useful foreign and domestic investment, which would also help.
A more united China might be a less attractive target for the Japanese as well (read: even the junior officers might not be able to convince themselves of their ability to win that one), so you might avoid the Second Sino-Japanese War and all the derivative suffering (not just among the Chinese themselves, but eg. in reducing the likelihood of Japan launching their end of World War II).
Something which allows a more stable and at least somewhat more capitalist China seems like it would be the optimal outcome possible during the 20th century (assuming no ASB scenarios).
In a general sense, and assuming (because of forum) no pre-1900 PoDs (so no "Genghis Khan isn't born" or "Ming fall later" things), it seems like the fall of the Qing could work out enormously better for China. I suppose it's too late to have the Qing reform and avoid the whole thing altogether, but it seems like there ought to be plausible PoDs which avoid the country falling apart and going through thirty-odd years of fighting before reuniting. That would save millions of lives, which is obviously much better for everyone involved, and it seems like it would aid useful foreign and domestic investment, which would also help.
A more united China might be a less attractive target for the Japanese as well (read: even the junior officers might not be able to convince themselves of their ability to win that one), so you might avoid the Second Sino-Japanese War and all the derivative suffering (not just among the Chinese themselves, but eg. in reducing the likelihood of Japan launching their end of World War II).
Something which allows a more stable and at least somewhat more capitalist China seems like it would be the optimal outcome possible during the 20th century (assuming no ASB scenarios).
Poll posted. Partly agree with you, but unification itself may not mean THAT much. Just look at China under Mao
Unified, but even worse than in the warlord years.Poll posted. Partly agree with you, but unification itself may not mean THAT much. Just look at China under Mao
Even with a Mao-like dictator in power, being unified may be better than being disunified from a strictly utilitarian point of view--much depends on whether this hypothetical dictator can avoid the Second Sino-Japanese War and what his exact policies are within China itself.
In any case, I voted for "Yuan Shikai doesn't lose his nerve in 1898". Besides earlier PoDs usually being "better" (more powerful, because of effect propagation), this seems like it would both allow a relatively united China and hopefully avoid the dictator issue you bring up. I somewhat doubt that the late Qing emperors were, even without certain toxic influences, powerful enough to impose a modern-style dictatorship (or, for that matter, willing to), but they would likely represent a power base large enough to prevent other elements of government (the Army, a Prime Minister analogue) from doing so.
Ideally, of course, Yuan would bite a bullet while fighting down Cixi's coup. Take out two birds with one stone
OneYearCaligula
Banned
I went with the standard "Nationalist Victory" choice. It seems the most obvious.
1898 - the sooner one gets rid of Cixi the better.
Whether Guangxu can actually reform China successfully - who knows?
Whether Guangxu can actually reform China successfully - who knows?
Simple - no Yuan Shikai, or at least keep Yuan as far away from power as possible. I don't know where that would fit in, however.
I went with the standard Nationalist victory but with US support/intervention because hopefully the US will have positive effects on their democratization process.
Which is why you have Yuan Shikai participate in taking Cixi out of power, then die in an accident
It's perfect.
Why not have the RoC succeed through Yuan's death via assassination in 1913? We could have Song become President and not be assassinated himself as an alternative PoD. Anything that avoids Imperial China under Yuan and the Warlord Era is best for China, the earlier that happens the better. Japanese opportunism would be stopped, the massive internecine strife would be circumvented and hopefully China could become a later model of Japan. But I guess a Meiji style event is hoping for too much in China, given cultural, historical and governmental barriers.
I think a nationalist vidtory in the civil war would make the most sense. Come to think of it, a student victory in Tinanammen could work, as well.
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Guangxu getting the support needed to put Cixi in her place might solve some of the problems, but I don't think that the Qing Dynasty could really be rejuvenated by that point. China was bound to get shaken up a lot by the 1880s.
I'm not really sure what other options are really the best, so I just voted for "Son Nakayama doesn't die in 1925". This would have given the KMT more unity, and prevented both the CCP's sharp descent in radicalism and the incompetent Jiang dictatorship. There would still be warlords to deal with, but without the CCP/KMT civil war, they could've been brought into the fold (as IOTL happened in the 30s and 40s anyway) and in a few years the country would've been able to do better against a Japanese incursion.
Erasing the Xi'an incident does something sort of similar but there is still the CCP and Mao to deal with and China is still in no shape to repel the Japanese.
US intervention in the civil war after WW2, even if it gets the KMT to win (unlikely), isn't that great because the 1945-49 KMT was a festering mess of vast but under-equipped armies and corrupt officers. It was probably militarily a lost cause by 1947, and I'm not sure of the opportunities for creating a healthy government.
Any of the PoDs involving Mao's death or removal from power are a good thing.
Falun Gong not being cracked down upon IMO would also rank relatively high but I didn't vote for it since it's a bit too recent and therefore not as interesting in the wider historical sense. Its legal spread could've helped in a variety of ways not immediately obvious. Ironically the CCP itself would've benefited, as the group had no political element until after Jiang Zemin banned them.
I'm not really sure what other options are really the best, so I just voted for "Son Nakayama doesn't die in 1925". This would have given the KMT more unity, and prevented both the CCP's sharp descent in radicalism and the incompetent Jiang dictatorship. There would still be warlords to deal with, but without the CCP/KMT civil war, they could've been brought into the fold (as IOTL happened in the 30s and 40s anyway) and in a few years the country would've been able to do better against a Japanese incursion.
Erasing the Xi'an incident does something sort of similar but there is still the CCP and Mao to deal with and China is still in no shape to repel the Japanese.
US intervention in the civil war after WW2, even if it gets the KMT to win (unlikely), isn't that great because the 1945-49 KMT was a festering mess of vast but under-equipped armies and corrupt officers. It was probably militarily a lost cause by 1947, and I'm not sure of the opportunities for creating a healthy government.
Any of the PoDs involving Mao's death or removal from power are a good thing.
Falun Gong not being cracked down upon IMO would also rank relatively high but I didn't vote for it since it's a bit too recent and therefore not as interesting in the wider historical sense. Its legal spread could've helped in a variety of ways not immediately obvious. Ironically the CCP itself would've benefited, as the group had no political element until after Jiang Zemin banned them.
Post-1898 I think the Qing are pretty much a lost cause so you're going to have to look to the republicans or the KMT. Song Jiaoren not being assassinated, just read about him in The Economist the other week, does look like a very good point of departure. He seems to be the best chance for a fairly democratic, for the time period, China and to head off Yuan Shikai and his shenanigans. Since that's bound to lead to conflict, the assassin that killed Song was linked to Yuan's party and it's often believed he could well of been behind it, I'd expect to see Yuan forced out after a while. And considering that Song's political alliance was made up of a large number of folks that were conservatives could perhaps see the Emperor brought back as a figurehead in a new constitutional monarchy as a sop to them.
It's just a shame that the point of departure is so late as it rules out one of my favourite one of the Empress Dowager Cixi either dying or being successfully sidelined. This allows the reform minded Prince Gong to continue advocating the Self-Strengthening Movement institutional reforms, and assuming that the Tongzhi Emperor still dies in 1875 then his son Zaicheng should by convention of become Emperor rather than the Guangxu Emperor Cixi managed to foist on people. China's had enough kickings to make people realise they need to reform but enough of a breathing space before the Japanese turn up in a couple of decades, and by then things could go very differently.
It's just a shame that the point of departure is so late as it rules out one of my favourite one of the Empress Dowager Cixi either dying or being successfully sidelined. This allows the reform minded Prince Gong to continue advocating the Self-Strengthening Movement institutional reforms, and assuming that the Tongzhi Emperor still dies in 1875 then his son Zaicheng should by convention of become Emperor rather than the Guangxu Emperor Cixi managed to foist on people. China's had enough kickings to make people realise they need to reform but enough of a breathing space before the Japanese turn up in a couple of decades, and by then things could go very differently.
If you're going for his full Japanese name, it's actually "Nakayama Shou".
After hearing your reason for voting for him, I think you are likely right. I might want to change my vote. Ideological unity slash unity of purpose would probably do more to help China than anything else, even with no change in actual leadership.
OneYearCaligula
Banned
Some of those lesser-discussed PODs might make intresting timelines. The Lin Biao one seems really intresting.