WI: No Great Trek & South Africa under a reactionary Britain?

What if there were no Great Trek? What would subsequent South African history look like without a Great Trek?

The scenario this is for is a UK where the sugar barons remained powerful, the monarchs are a long string of the more reactionary male Hanoverians, the PMs are equally reactionary Ultra-Tories and Orange Lodgers, and the abolition of slavery is delayed by decades. Given this state of affairs, the UK is headed for a revolution and South Africa may find itself alone without colonial backing.

What else lies in South Africa's future given these circumstances?

If revolution breaks out in Britain, They will ask for Dutch protection or go independent.

This requires a POD in the early 18thC at the latest in order to ensure several generations of stereotypical upper-class moustache twirling villains at the top of British public life, and with 100 years of butterflies to take account of there's no guarantee (or even much likelihood) south Africa will become British anyway. It depends on Britain winning the wars of the French revolution, which in turn depends on Britain losing the wars of the American revolution (or at least the war still bankrupting France), and so on.

RPW@Cy said:

This requires a POD in the early 18thC at the latest in order to ensure several generations of stereotypical upper-class moustache twirling villains at the top of British public life, and with 100 years of butterflies to take account of there's no guarantee (or even much likelihood) south Africa will become British anyway. It depends on Britain winning the wars of the French revolution, which in turn depends on Britain losing the wars of the American revolution (or at least the war still bankrupting France), and so on.

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That seems a bit extreme. Late 18th century PODs could delay abolitionism as a political force and Britain keeping French possessions in the Caribbean after the Napoleonic Wars would give Britain more economic interests reliant on slavery. I don't mean Austro-Hungarian levels of conservatism, just Kings like Ernest Augustus and PMs like Lord Lyndhurst.

Anyone have thoughts about South Africa, handwaving the role of the UK?