WI: Communist North Japan and capitalist South Japan

VidaLaVida

In the twilight of World War II, Operation Downfall is put into effect, either because the United States doesn't use the atomic bomb, or Japan refuses to surrender even after the bombs are dropped (as in Robert Conroy's 1945). The war in Japan drags on long enough for the Soviet Union to get involved, which, shortly after taking Manchuria, crosses over into Hokkaido and thrusts southward just as American forces are pushing north from Kyushu.

Finally, the Japanese surrender. And what a mess we have: not only is there a horrifying death toll from the land invasion of Japan, and not only is the country in ruins, but now, just as in Germany, the former Axis power is divided. While Germany is now split between a communist East and capitalist West, Japan is divided similarily, with the American-invaded Okinawa, Kyushu, Shikoku, and southern half of Honshu becoming capitalist South Japan, and the Soviet-invaded Hokkaido and northern half of Honshu becoming communist North Japan. Most likely, Tokyo becomes the Berlin of East Asia, and is the split capital of both countries. (though if you have any different ideas as to the specific division of Japan, feel free to share them).

So what in the hell happens from here? What is communist North Japanese society like? What is life like in South Japan? Can either of these two Japans be rebuilt into something stable (I'm thinking especially of the fact that South Japan is now cut off from Hokkaido, which is the agricultural breadbasket of Japan. OTL unified Japan already imports a lot of food and resources as it is...)? How about cultural effects, in terms of the legacy of World War II?

And what are the geopolitical effects on the Cold War? What are the effects on the situation in Korea? How does this situation influence events in China, Vietnam, etc.? Will Japan be reunited by 2013, like Germany, or remain split, like Korea?
 
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deathscompanion1

Banned
VidaLaVida said:
In the twilight of World War II, Operation Downfall is put into effect, either because the United States doesn't use the atomic bomb, or Japan refuses to surrender even after the bombs are dropped (as in Robert Conroy's 1945). The war in Japan drags on long enough for the Soviet Union to get involved, which, shortly after taking Manchuria, crosses over into Hokkaido and thrusts southward just as American forces are pushing north from Kyushu.

Finally, the Japanese surrender. And what a mess we have: not only is there a horrifying death toll from the land invasion of Japan, and not only is the country in ruins, but now, just as in Germany, the former Axis power is divided. While Germany is now split between a communist East and capitalist West, Japan is divided similarily, with the American-invaded Okinawa, Kyushu, Shikoku, and southern half of Honshu becoming capitalist South Japan, and the Soviet-invaded Hokkaido and northern half of Honshu becoming communist North Japan. Most likely, Tokyo becomes the Berlin of East Asia, and is the split capital of both countries. (though if you have any different ideas as to the specific division of Japan, feel free to share them).

So what in the hell happens from here? What is communist North Japanese society like? What is life like in South Japan? Can either of these two Japans be rebuilt into something stable (I'm thinking especially of the fact that South Japan is now cut off from Hokkaido, which is the agricultural breadbasket of Japan. OTL unified Japan already imports a lot of food and resources as it is...)? How about cultural effects, in terms of the legacy of World War II?



And what are the geopolitical effects on the Cold War? What are the effects on the situation in Korea? How does this situation influence events in China, Vietnam, etc.? Will Japan be reunited by 2012, like Germany, or remain split, like Korea?
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Japan would have starved into submission with or without nukes so Downfall is unlikely.
 

Danth

is korea split also?

most likly i see northern honshu returning to japan fairly quickly by getting involved in the korean war or affter the sino soviet split.

the northern island remains as an Edo republic until 1990 when unification happens or it remains independent as a north korea until it falls in the 2000's
 

LostCosmonaut

Due to the high proportion of Japanese agriculture in Hokkaido, there might be a greater humanitarian crisis in southern Japan due to lack of food shortly after the war is over. This would depend a lot on how much the Soviets are willing to assist.
 
LHB

LHB

This is all assuming the Soviets have the means to invade Japan in the first place. The Soviet Pacific Fleet definitely did not have the lift capacity or experience in amphibious warfare for any large-scale operations. If the US is blockading Japan and starving it into submission then there is no opening for the Soviets to get in.

Remember: the biggest reason an East Germany even happened was because of Red Army bayonets. If the Soviets can't get into Japan in the first place there's no way they can split it into a Communist North and Capitalist South.
 
Chris Triangle

Chris Triangle

LHB said:
This is all assuming the Soviets have the means to invade Japan in the first place. The Soviet Pacific Fleet definitely did not have the lift capacity or experience in amphibious warfare for any large-scale operations. If the US is blockading Japan and starving it into submission then there is no opening for the Soviets to get in.

Remember: the biggest reason an East Germany even happened was because of Red Army bayonets. If the Soviets can't get into Japan in the first place there's no way they can split it into a Communist North and Capitalist South.
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They could always agree to withdraw like they did from Vienna.... Perhaps in exchange for some kind of neutrality agreement. For example, they might get the US to agree to let them operate a naval base somewhere in Hokkaido or perhaps they could get the US to agree not to put any military forces in Northern Japan.
 

der Kriegsherr

LHB said:
This is all assuming the Soviets have the means to invade Japan in the first place. The Soviet Pacific Fleet definitely did not have the lift capacity or experience in amphibious warfare for any large-scale operations. .
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This a thousand times.

Transporting tens (or hundreds) of thousands of troops over a body of water isn't exactly easy: In fact, it's pretty difficult and dangerous, as well as gives the defender a massive advantage. Another thing required: Practice and lots of it.
 

Magnum

der Kriegsherr said:
This a thousand times.

Transporting tens (or hundreds) of thousands of troops over a body of water isn't exactly easy: In fact, it's pretty difficult and dangerous, as well as gives the defender a massive advantage. Another thing required: Practice and lots of it.
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Except that they did execute, successfully, quite a number of amphibious operations against the Japanese: 3 in Koreea, 1 in Sakhalin and on 8 separate islands in the Kurile arhipelago.

They had a sizeable fleet
two cruisers, one destroyer leader, ten destroyers, two torpedo boats, 19 patrol boats, 78 submarines, ten minelayers, 52 minesweepers, 49 "MO" anti-submarine boats, 204 motor torpedo boats and 1459 war planes.
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and a further 3700 aircraft with the army, which would have been available since land operations in Manchuria and Koreea were almost over.

They had the PROVEN capability of supplying units across large distances via air transport, paratroopers and other crack assault units that were way better than anything the Japanese had in the area, and, once established on one or more beachheads, tanks and doctrine to which the Japanese had virtually no counter.

Whats more, Tokyo had massed most of its forces to the south, to face the expected American invasion. I doubt they could have transferred any significant amount in time, and, even assuming they could, they would not have done it, since it would have decreased their already slim chances of winning the "DECISIVE BATTLE" against the Americans.

This is of course all assuming they fight on after having lost Manchuria, Koreea and their last hope of mediation.
 

Genmotty

That's not going to be enough to get enough Red Army Soldiers across to pacify the millions of native Japanese who were in some instances given sharpened sticks and told to fight to the death.

Any invasion of Imperial Japan would have been a total bloodshed. There wouldn't be that much of a population left to split.
 
iori

iori

To be honest I don't see the People's Republic of Japan being anymore than Hokkaido itself and maybe roughly the area of Aomori Prefecture.
 

Tyr

The nuclear bomb was not dropped to end WW2, the Japanese were on the verge of surrendering anyway, it was dropped to disuade the soviets from launching straight into WW3.


And Hokkaido isn't Japan's breadbasket, that's kanto. Hokkaido was mainly a natural resource and lumber place. Hokkaido farming wise is where Japan's dairy industry is mainly based.
Japan didn't have much of a breadbasket in WW2 and the period before however, the Japanese diet has traditionally been very firmly rice based; Hokkaido isn't much good for growing rice. Wheat based dishes were minor luxuries in pre-war Japan, not daily food.
Japan's shift towards a wheat based diet only came after WW2 when the American occupation force relieved food shortages by dumping cheap American grain on Japan. Even today though rice remains the staple.
 
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ComradeHuxley

Donor
037771 said:
Another possibility - albeit a crazy one - would be a North Japanese-North Korean accord, resulting in some sort of symbiotic trade relationship. The DPRK, in contrast to its status today, was an industrial success-story among the Communist bloc from the late 1950s to the early 1970s, and yet possessed very little arable land. Hokkaido meanwhile was known as the breadbasket of Japan, and although quite a lot would stand in the way of Sino-Korean rapprochment (the imperialism thing springs to mind,) it wouldn't be ASB for some sort of mutual trading relationship to slowly develop. Whether that would last beyond the collapse of much of the rest of the Communist bloc - assuming that happens - is however, unknowable.
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Even if it wasn't the breadbasket the idea is far from crazy. In fact if one believes, B.R. Myers "The Cleanest Race" North Korea's supremacist propaganda can be traced to imperial Japan, which sought to convince Koreans that they were part of the "world's purest race."

Here is an interesting video about the book and topic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXPksdShNK0

I could easily see both nations keep their "special" relationship post war.
 

Tizoc

I recall a proposed division of Japan into occupation zones, with Soviets having Hokkaido and Tohoku - so that's the most probable shape of N. Japan.

Another point - from discussion here it's as if China ending up communist was a foregone thing, even with Kuomintang having bigger military until Huai-Hai (late 1948). It isn't impossible TTL to end with communist N. Japan and Kuomintang-held S. China.

Also, in situation that allows Soviets to land in Hokkaido they'd most likely had enough time to overrun whole Korea - so TTL Korea would be undivided and communist, methinks.
 
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