OTL, after the February Revolution, the Provisional Government of Russia decided to continue participating in WWI, with disastrous results.
What if, instead, they had made peace with Germany in say, April or May? The collapse of the Russian army hasn't occurred yet, so its still a credible fighting force, and Germany has not advanced nearly as deeply into Russian territory as it had when the OTL Brest-Litovsk treaty was negotiated, so I think Russia can probably get a much better deal, in relative terms. I expect the terms of the treaty will be something like:
-Independent Finland, under a German prince. Might, or might not, get Vipurii/Vyborg and some of Karelia
-Some form of Baltic Duchy
-An independent Polish Kingdom
-Kars is returned to the Ottomans
-Guarantees not to interfere with German, Austrian, or Ottoman interests in the Balkans or Mideast
-Fairly stiff reparitions, and generous trade concessions to CP countries
I think this will probably hurt Kerensky's popularity, but not as much as continuing (and loosing) the war ultimately did. With the war having ended, the Communists have lost what was, OTL, their biggest stick to hit the Kerensky government with, and, more importantly, the army is still mostly intact and can be redeployed around Russian cities to keep order and restore the provisional government's authority. (And yes, the army would likely be loyal to Kerensky, if only because the communists are worse). If TTL has a Communist uprising, its probably going to go like the Sparticist Uprising did-quickly put down by the army.
Beyond that, how might the rest of WWI go? Germany can now transfer troops from the east to the west about a year earlier than it could OTL, and it can buy supplies from Russia, including grain, which will mitigate the damage from the British blockade to at least some extent. I think its highly possible we might see a "Fall Offensive" in 1917 on the Western Front, which could knock the French out of the war before large numbers of Americans arrive.
What if, instead, they had made peace with Germany in say, April or May? The collapse of the Russian army hasn't occurred yet, so its still a credible fighting force, and Germany has not advanced nearly as deeply into Russian territory as it had when the OTL Brest-Litovsk treaty was negotiated, so I think Russia can probably get a much better deal, in relative terms. I expect the terms of the treaty will be something like:
-Independent Finland, under a German prince. Might, or might not, get Vipurii/Vyborg and some of Karelia
-Some form of Baltic Duchy
-An independent Polish Kingdom
-Kars is returned to the Ottomans
-Guarantees not to interfere with German, Austrian, or Ottoman interests in the Balkans or Mideast
-Fairly stiff reparitions, and generous trade concessions to CP countries
I think this will probably hurt Kerensky's popularity, but not as much as continuing (and loosing) the war ultimately did. With the war having ended, the Communists have lost what was, OTL, their biggest stick to hit the Kerensky government with, and, more importantly, the army is still mostly intact and can be redeployed around Russian cities to keep order and restore the provisional government's authority. (And yes, the army would likely be loyal to Kerensky, if only because the communists are worse). If TTL has a Communist uprising, its probably going to go like the Sparticist Uprising did-quickly put down by the army.
Beyond that, how might the rest of WWI go? Germany can now transfer troops from the east to the west about a year earlier than it could OTL, and it can buy supplies from Russia, including grain, which will mitigate the damage from the British blockade to at least some extent. I think its highly possible we might see a "Fall Offensive" in 1917 on the Western Front, which could knock the French out of the war before large numbers of Americans arrive.
