Challenge: The November Uprising in Poland Succeeds

Reading about the Polish November Uprising on wiki...I've gathered that this board seems to have a thing with Wikipedia and Poland, but all the same, from that article, the uprising doesn't seem like something doomed from the start-if we believe wiki's numbers for troop strength, the Russians outnumbered the Poles but not crushingly so, and and at any rate, the Poles managed to hold the Russians off for almost a year, and their army was able to escape the Russians, retreat west, and surrender to Prussia.

So, what would it take for the Poles to win, and what sort of state (monarchy, republic?) the uprising create? Would it be limited to Congress Poland, or might the rebels be able to grab some of Poland's more eastward territories?

The problems with Polish uprisings is that any success against one of the powers which had partitioned Poland might cause quick reaction from other two - and Poles had no chance at all to deal with combined forces of Russia, Austria (later Austria-Hungary) and Prussia. All of those countires had no interest whatsoever in reborn independent Poland. The similar situation was in Hungary in 1848-1849 - when Hungarians seemed to close to success, Russia intervened.
Besides, during November Uprising Poles had only a limited part of their country (Congress Poland) as a source of recruits and supplies while Russia had a whole empire. Poles might inflict some quite heave defeats on Russia, but eventually they had to loose. OTOH, some bigger victories might have given them a slightly better position in potential peace talks - if there had been any.

A more united leadership, more important victories and international support. Maybe the uprising in Poland can trigger others uprising across the Russian Empire (and maybe even in Prussia or Austria?) causing something like 1848. In the end, I guess that a Congress Poland serving as a buffer state would be the most suitable option.

My tl has the russian ottoman war lasting longer, so the Polish rebellion does much better, although they dont end up completely inddependent.