WI:François Achille Bazaine died before the Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter SPJ
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wolf_brother
Banned
What? Bazaine learned all the wrong lessons from the Seven Weeks War and the Mexican Intervention going in to the FPW. Plus he was far too cautious. Mars-la-Tour and Gravelotte should have been French victories, and Metz was an unmitigated disaster purely by choice. I'm not saying without Bazaine France will do better, but she'd be hard pressed to do worse.
How could the war end sooner with a Prussian victory if the French held them back longer? Or are you writing two different situations?
How did it border on treason? Now I still don't know all the effects he had on the FPW but I do understand that he was the last general to surrender to the Prussians and that it was his idea to fight a defensive war against the Prussians at the start of the FPW. Then after the French lost they sadly took a bad outlook on defensive stratagies which caused them to plan an offensive strategy during WW1 which also worked against them. Are there any good TL's out there that involve someone else in Basaine's place that we could look at for inspiration and help us imagine some of the short and long term effects of a France without him?
Well, according to what I read in Wavro's The Franco-Prussian War: The German conquest of France, during the initial battles the guy shut himself up into Metz and spent the entire war ignoring every oportunity to deal a defeat on Prussians or at let attempt to do so, until it became impossible to do anything other than sit in Metz. He ignored both suggestions of his subordinates (the aforementioned Bourbaki f.e. and the others) and the situation developing around him.
Borderline treasonous since, once he surrendered he was implicated in plotting with Prussians to establish a military dictatorship.
Borderline treasonous since, once he surrendered he was implicated in plotting with Prussians to establish a military dictatorship.
wolf_brother
Banned
Let's also not forgot the odd circumstances that removed Bourbaki from France in the middle of the war. By the time he returned Bazaine had surrendered; and of course if Metz had held out just a bit longer the Prussians wouldn't have taken Orléans, which would have changed the entire campaign drastically.
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wolf_brother
Banned
I think simply killing off Bazaine is, well, lazy alternate history, so instead let's say that Regnier, after being unable to get an audience with Empress Eugénie, is unable to get his IOTL audience with the Prime Imperial, and thus never receiving a signed photograph of Napoléon III to use as credentials to get through the Prussian lines or to get to Bazaine, and therefore Bourbaki never leaves. However the old Marshal is still who is his; he rejects the Government of National Defense and what it stands for, and he believes that the war was lost before it began. However ITTL with Bourbaki still in Metz when Bazaine proposes to surrender Bourbaki refuses, and stages a mutiny inside the fortress which sees Bazaine arrested.
Therefor the siege holds on for another few weeks, which has some fairly drastic consequences. In the immediate period this means that Prince Friedrich Karl's Second Army never moves south, giving the Armée de la Loire time to regroup and organize after Coulmiers. As well the French Northern Army under Forre isn't forced to fall back as, with Metz still standing, for the moment, the French front isn't in a such an unstable position. So essentially the French still have the majority of their forces in the war; bloodied, but still fighting.
At the same time that Metz does fall in late November, the Loire Army begins moving north to break the siege of Paris, and while the Prussians begin to move out from Metz attempting to head off Chanzy the North Army commences a withdrawal just ahead of the Prussian advance, harassing and slowing down the Prussian forces, giving Chanzy the time he needs to reach the city. von Blumenthal knows he can't besiege Paris and hold off the Army of the Lorie at the same time, and, regretfully, detaches from the city, falling back to meet up with the approaching forces; Forre is smashed between the two of them, but his sacrifice allows the French to retake their capital and begin to reorganize. In Paris Chanzy, working with Trochu, d'Aurelle, Crouzat, and others, sets out to prepare their defenses.
Meanwhile, the Prussians, now united outside of Paris, are beginning to fracture as dissenting opinions rise up. von Moltke, as in IOTL, is worried that insufficient supplies are reaching the Prussian front as winter sets in, and is also concerned about the spread of disease among the German armies. von Blumenthal, who had commanded the siege, is also concerned that the Prussians now have insufficient forces to take the city, and advise attempting to draw the French out and defeat them in the field. Other German commands feel likewise; Frederick Francis II and von Werder being two other prominent voices calling for a change in strategy. However Bismarck, supported by King Wilhelm and the Crown Prince Frederick, as well as the Prussian Prince Friedrich Karl and Saxon Crown Prince Albert, call for an immediate investment in the city. They believe that holding back would only give the French further hope for a victory, especially as the Government of National Defense has already summoned every available French unit across the continent to the defense of Paris, even summoning units stationed in Algeria & Rome. Waiting would also allow the French inside Paris time to consolidate their position, and possibly allow Gambetta, who is in the unoccupied south, to raise a further fighting force. As well it could potentially allow the French to even turn diplomatic opinion in their favor and bring a third party (e.g. Austria) into the conflict. Bismarck in particular is also concerned about the affect a long, drawn out war, would have on the small and fragile Prussian economy, as well as Berlin's control over the newly-constituted North German Confederation. They call for an immediate artillery assault on the city followed up by a direct attack. Regretfully, Moltke gives the order.
The (Second) Battle of Paris is the largest single battle in European history since the Battle of the Nations, and pits some 650,000 French forces against some 575,000 Prussian and allied German forces. The French are behind significant defenses (which happen to be their capital), and have have better rifles (in terms of range), but are under-supplied, and half their forces are irregular and volunteer units. The Germans have superior rifles (in terms of rate of fire) and artillery, but are attacking a fortress city that can potentially hold out for several months, and if the Prussians don't take it immediately they'll soon find themselves under-supplied, deep in hostile territory at the end of a long supply train. For both sides this is the make-or-break moment.
Therefor the siege holds on for another few weeks, which has some fairly drastic consequences. In the immediate period this means that Prince Friedrich Karl's Second Army never moves south, giving the Armée de la Loire time to regroup and organize after Coulmiers. As well the French Northern Army under Forre isn't forced to fall back as, with Metz still standing, for the moment, the French front isn't in a such an unstable position. So essentially the French still have the majority of their forces in the war; bloodied, but still fighting.
At the same time that Metz does fall in late November, the Loire Army begins moving north to break the siege of Paris, and while the Prussians begin to move out from Metz attempting to head off Chanzy the North Army commences a withdrawal just ahead of the Prussian advance, harassing and slowing down the Prussian forces, giving Chanzy the time he needs to reach the city. von Blumenthal knows he can't besiege Paris and hold off the Army of the Lorie at the same time, and, regretfully, detaches from the city, falling back to meet up with the approaching forces; Forre is smashed between the two of them, but his sacrifice allows the French to retake their capital and begin to reorganize. In Paris Chanzy, working with Trochu, d'Aurelle, Crouzat, and others, sets out to prepare their defenses.
Meanwhile, the Prussians, now united outside of Paris, are beginning to fracture as dissenting opinions rise up. von Moltke, as in IOTL, is worried that insufficient supplies are reaching the Prussian front as winter sets in, and is also concerned about the spread of disease among the German armies. von Blumenthal, who had commanded the siege, is also concerned that the Prussians now have insufficient forces to take the city, and advise attempting to draw the French out and defeat them in the field. Other German commands feel likewise; Frederick Francis II and von Werder being two other prominent voices calling for a change in strategy. However Bismarck, supported by King Wilhelm and the Crown Prince Frederick, as well as the Prussian Prince Friedrich Karl and Saxon Crown Prince Albert, call for an immediate investment in the city. They believe that holding back would only give the French further hope for a victory, especially as the Government of National Defense has already summoned every available French unit across the continent to the defense of Paris, even summoning units stationed in Algeria & Rome. Waiting would also allow the French inside Paris time to consolidate their position, and possibly allow Gambetta, who is in the unoccupied south, to raise a further fighting force. As well it could potentially allow the French to even turn diplomatic opinion in their favor and bring a third party (e.g. Austria) into the conflict. Bismarck in particular is also concerned about the affect a long, drawn out war, would have on the small and fragile Prussian economy, as well as Berlin's control over the newly-constituted North German Confederation. They call for an immediate artillery assault on the city followed up by a direct attack. Regretfully, Moltke gives the order.
The (Second) Battle of Paris is the largest single battle in European history since the Battle of the Nations, and pits some 650,000 French forces against some 575,000 Prussian and allied German forces. The French are behind significant defenses (which happen to be their capital), and have have better rifles (in terms of range), but are under-supplied, and half their forces are irregular and volunteer units. The Germans have superior rifles (in terms of rate of fire) and artillery, but are attacking a fortress city that can potentially hold out for several months, and if the Prussians don't take it immediately they'll soon find themselves under-supplied, deep in hostile territory at the end of a long supply train. For both sides this is the make-or-break moment.
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If Bourbaki takes over and does ok, then the mathematicians who published under his name, as a synonym for idiot, would have to choose a new name.
I feel like this thought has crossed your mind before wolf brother. That response was impressive and interesting.
wolf_brother
Banned
So, I feel like taking this idea and just running it straight into the ground. French military doctrine at the time was dominated by Frossard, whose pet theory was that it was always better to take up a 'strong position,' even if it might suffering loses in the short-term, or, conversely, missing an opportunity to strike, for a long-term gain. There's really no stronger position than Paris, so the French will hold up in the city and won't move out even after being shelled.
On the other side von Moltke also believed in the superiority of the defensive in modern warfare, and wouldn't commit his forces wholesale to an assault but would instead attempt to once again encircle the French; because of Prussian politics he can't re-engage the siege and simply wait out the the French, which would be the smart thing to do, but he can attempt to throw as wide an attack as possible to minimize his loses and prevent Chanzy from concentrating his forces.
So basically we're looking at a battle based more so than others on luck and timing. If Chanzy finds a weakness in Moltke's lines he'll smash through with the majority of his best troops and come upon the Prussian's rear and flanks, leaving only enough in the city itself to hold out a few days. If Moltke is able to keep his forces coherent yet spread wide he'll be able to deal the French a defeat by a thousand cuts.
If the Prussians win this is essentially game-over and the rest of the war and immediate history likely goes near-to IOTL, though without a French Commune (as most of the able-bodied and vengeful citizens died fighting the Prussian assault).
If the French win the Prussians have been given a right-bloody nose, but the French are still in a bad shape, militarily, and politically. We're likely looking out a long, drawn-out, bloody affair that looks more like certain theaters of the American Civil War or the Western Front of WWI than anything, and which likely result in a white peace after both sides exhaust themselves. The political ramifications, for both sides, in such a scenario would be tremendous - a lot will depend on the particulars and details of the intermediate period between the battle and the end of the war, but, in general, neither side has the capacity, militarily, economically, or politically for such a brawl, and worse yet having fought such a war, only to gain nothing but the bodies of the dead in the hundreds of thousands, will certainly upset the order of both societies.
On the other side von Moltke also believed in the superiority of the defensive in modern warfare, and wouldn't commit his forces wholesale to an assault but would instead attempt to once again encircle the French; because of Prussian politics he can't re-engage the siege and simply wait out the the French, which would be the smart thing to do, but he can attempt to throw as wide an attack as possible to minimize his loses and prevent Chanzy from concentrating his forces.
So basically we're looking at a battle based more so than others on luck and timing. If Chanzy finds a weakness in Moltke's lines he'll smash through with the majority of his best troops and come upon the Prussian's rear and flanks, leaving only enough in the city itself to hold out a few days. If Moltke is able to keep his forces coherent yet spread wide he'll be able to deal the French a defeat by a thousand cuts.
If the Prussians win this is essentially game-over and the rest of the war and immediate history likely goes near-to IOTL, though without a French Commune (as most of the able-bodied and vengeful citizens died fighting the Prussian assault).
If the French win the Prussians have been given a right-bloody nose, but the French are still in a bad shape, militarily, and politically. We're likely looking out a long, drawn-out, bloody affair that looks more like certain theaters of the American Civil War or the Western Front of WWI than anything, and which likely result in a white peace after both sides exhaust themselves. The political ramifications, for both sides, in such a scenario would be tremendous - a lot will depend on the particulars and details of the intermediate period between the battle and the end of the war, but, in general, neither side has the capacity, militarily, economically, or politically for such a brawl, and worse yet having fought such a war, only to gain nothing but the bodies of the dead in the hundreds of thousands, will certainly upset the order of both societies.
That's what I was thinking too. This sounds like it would make an amazing timeline.
Not sure. What allowed Prussia to unite Germany was the prestige of a quick victory. Here, i'm not even sure the southern German states would stay in the war if it is too long.
Also wolf_brother, you NEED to do a TL !
Given that he was tried and condemned to death (commuted to 20 years in prison by Mac Mahon) for his military incompetence, I would say the judge in fact thought it was treason.