Argentinian Paraguay

Uruguay seems rather easy to add to Argentina in an ATL, but what about Paraguay?

What do you think is the most plausible POD?

Black Sept said:

Uruguay seems rather easy to add to Argentina in an ATL, but what about Paraguay?

What do you think is the most plausible POD?

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Well, Paraguay was part of the Vicceroyalty of Rio de la Plata.

I can think of two Pods:

1) In 1811, an year after the may revolution, the Assembly that governs what would later be *Argentina sends an army led by Belgrano to Paraguay to make the loyalist province pledje alliagnce to the revolutionnary government (This happened IOTL). IOTL, this campaign failed, but eventually set in motion a series of events that led Paraguay to have its own revolution... but a revolution that would make it independent both from Spain AND Buenos Aires. So, just have Belgrano succeed and have Paraguay accept the rule of the revolutionary government in Buenos Aires, as Cordoba did (by force).

Or, alternatively, have Belgrano be defeated as IOTL (which is more likely, given the state of his forces) but have the following Paraguay's revolution being led by somebody other than Gaspar Francia. That is, by somebody who things that Paraguay needs access to the sea and, thus, that an understanding with Buenos Aires, who controls this access, is essential for its own survival. Have them send representatives to the Constitutional Assembly of 1813, have Uruguayan deputees sent there been accepted, and have a federal or confederal Constitution been sanctioned.

2) The other option would be to have Brazil and Argentina agree to split Paraguay in two at the begining of the war of Triple Alliance in 1865, and have them do so after 1870. This would be condenmed internationally and compared to the partition of poland. And there would be Paraguayan guerillas for years. But it could, theoretically, have been done.

I certainly like the first option better. In fact it always seemed kind of weird to me the way Latin American countries fragmented themselves, whether in Central America, Gran Colombia or in the Southern Cone. I mean the culture was the same, i don't think there was a separate 'Paraguayan' identity back then, it sort of looks like the existence of many countries depended just on the personality of a local ruler like Gaspar de Francia.

Admiral Brown said:

And there would be Paraguayan guerillas for years.

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The way the male population of Paraguay was so thouroughly annihilated makes me think that the few that remained wouldn't continue the stubborn effort of the now (finally) dead Solano.

Black Sept said:

I certainly like the first option better. In fact it always seemed kind of weird to me the way Latin American countries fragmented themselves, whether in Central America, Gran Colombia or in the Southern Cone. I mean the culture was the same, i don't think there was a separate 'Paraguayan' identity back then, it sort of looks like the existence of many countries depended just on the personality of a local ruler like Gaspar de Francia.

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The reason the Latin American countries fragmented themselves was because of the often violent argument of how their countries should be run, either a Unitary State or a Federal State. In the case of Gran Colombia, their were regional economic and commercial disputes between the various departments within the country. In the case of Central America, it was a liberal project that was not supported by the conservatives and the populace who were loyal to the Roman Catholic Church. Plus since the FRCA's infrastructure was highly deficient, it was not possible to try and convince the majority otherwise.

But back to Argentina, the first PoD is probably the better idea of the two, though those are not the only other PoD's, another idea would be to find a way to keep Juan Manuel de Rosas in power. He did intend on expanding Argentina's borders to encompass the entire former Viceroyalty of the Rio de La Plata, which included Paraguay. Perhaps if he was more successful in maintaining the loyalty of his soldiers and generals he might have had a somewhat better chance at it. Though it will still be quite an uphill battle what with the only nation preventing them is the more powerful and possibly more stable Empire of Brazil.

Black Sept said:

Uruguay seems rather easy to add to Argentina in an ATL, but what about Paraguay?

What do you think is the most plausible POD?

Click to expand...

Actually, it's easier to imagine an Paraguayan Argentina than Argentine Paraguayan. All you have to do is to put some reason in Francisco Solano López' head in late 1864. Instead of invading Brazil and then Argentina, make him invade Argentina only and crown himself Emperor of the Plata (his true goal).

But that's not what you asked, then let's try to answer your questions. I believe that the best moment would be around th 1830s when Brazil was too weak to intervene.

We couldn't think of 1870 because the idea of an annexation of Paraguay by Brazil was never thought by any Brazilian politician. And certainly Brazil would not allow Argentina to annex Paraguay. In fact, I hardly doubt Mitre or Sarmiento ever considered that possiblity.