Dividing the Portuguese colonial empire

Whilst reading some things I've come to learn that the Germans and British, prior to their falling out, both had a plan to divide the Portuguese colonial empire.

Now since the bulk of what remained by 1900 was in Africa, this makes me wonder, how would it have been divided in a logical way? (although Europeans in Africa were strangers to logic on many occassions).

I imagine Portugal would go bankrupt and default on loans or something of the like, and the British and Germans, instead of ruining the economy for reparations, would instead take the colonies, somewhat akin to what happened in Decades of Darkness. If that is the case, who gets what?

Portuguese Guinea, Mozambique, Angola, East Timor, Goa, who would they go to?

Personally I think Germany would get Angola and Guinea and northern Mozambique (if they're lucky), and the British would take the remainder due to proximity to their already established colonial territories and extensive trade links (Goa incorporated into the Raj, the South Africans already ran Angola through economic influence, maybe with more Africans in the Empire Rhodesia could become a Dominion?)

What do you fellows think the repercussions of such a thing would be? Greater Anglo-German relations, or just a one time lucky chance thing? How would the other Great Powers react? What would happen to Portugal internally, maybe another coup?

I think Britain would get the lion's share, frankly. I imagine they'd do a lot of diplomatic swindling in order to serve all their interests; remember, Cape to Cairo is a prominent idea in British colonial mindset in this period, if not the railroad then for contiguousness. Britain will want Mozambique, but they'll also want Tanganyika, so there may be more territorial exchanges than just a carve-up of Portugal's colonies.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I think Britain would get the lion's share, frankly. I imagine they'd do a lot of diplomatic swindling in order to serve all their interests; remember, Cape to Cairo is a prominent idea in British colonial mindset in this period, if not the railroad then for contiguousness. Britain will want Mozambique, but they'll also want Tanganyika, so there may be more territorial exchanges than just a carve-up of Portugal's colonies.

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Imperial Germany isn't going to give up their model colony (after the government took charge, that is) without something big in return.

PariahNihil said:

Imperial Germany isn't going to give up their model colony (after the government took charge, that is) without something big in return.

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No, but Portugal is Britain's oldest ally, and without British support the Germans aren't getting anything at all. Portugal isn't going to sell willingly, and in this case it's either the Germans try to get everything and invoke the British wrath, or they come to the table with the British before a single move is made.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

No, but Portugal is Britain's oldest ally, and without British support the Germans aren't getting anything at all. Portugal isn't going to sell willingly, and in this case it's either the Germans try to get everything and invoke the British wrath, or they come to the table with the British before a single move is made.

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The Portuguese can't really argue, and the British wouldn't want to take on ALL of the territory. Angola, so far as I know, would need more developing than Tanganyika already was for Germany to be alright with losing it and gaining Angola.

Ariosto said:

The treaty as outlined is the same (the grand majority of Angola and Northern Mozambique to Germany, the British get the rest) but Germany is required to also allow the construction of a railway through their territory.
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That sounds perfect. How do you think the other Great Powers would react? I doubt France would be happy with a German Cabinda bordering its Congo, and with Kamerun to the north, if the Agadir Crises occur then maybe the war could start earlier (if it starts at all) because the French wouldn't want to appear weaker in the region and the British would back the Germans.

Ariosto said:

The treaty as outlined is the same (the grand majority of Angola and Northern Mozambique to Germany, the British get the rest) but Germany is required to also allow the construction of a railway through their territory.

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Interesting. Have you been able to find the text of both agreements and, if so, would you be kind enough to point me in the right direction? I've been through the university stacks here a couple of times and basically came up empty.

The sheer audacity of the Anglo-German agreements concerning Portugal's empire has intrigued me ever since I first read about them. From the beginning the UK and Germany negotiated in secret pledging to keep all other European powers away from the prospective spoils. In the first agreement from the late 1890s, the UK and Germany agreed to block any "rescue packages" Portugal might be able to negotiate with other powers to avoid a default. In the second agreement in 1913 the UK and Germany agreed to force Portugal to default by extending loans they knew she could not repay.

It's a breathtaking example of realpolitik.

The plan is know. Germany gets coastal and highland Angola which is probably added to SWA. It is better land really, so GrossSudWestAfriak is still the model colony. The Germans also get northern Mozambique. Seems like rest went UK, but Germans might get something minor. Originally the UK/Germany were waiting for bankruptcy, but eventually they planned to trigger it. Seems like they had bought up almost all the debt by the time the Great War started. And since the event was to have taken place after WW1 started, it means no WW1 with all the butterflies that entails. The UK/Germany had gone a long way towards resolving naval issues since the huge expense had worn down both sides desire to build ships. We see a German Navy of about 55% to 60% of the capital ship tonnage of the UK. Since the Germans were well below this level for the non-capital portion of their navy, other ships are not really an issue.

As to the colonies specifically, WW1 was the point we start transitioning from 350 years of European colonialism to the Age of America. Without WW1, much to all of the colonial area still exist. It is important to remember that WW1 was a demographic disaster for the Europeans. Without WW1, there are several hundred million more people of European descent outside of Europe. GrossSWA is German speaking and probably white majority (at least mixed race majority). German East Africa is a harder call, but it will speak German and probably be as White as South Africa is today. And you will see similar items elsewhere. Algeria is French majority. Libya is Italian majority. Tunisia goes European majority. Canada and Australia are whiter than today.

PariahNihil said:

That sounds perfect. How do you think the other Great Powers would react? I doubt France would be happy with a German Cabinda bordering its Congo, and with Kamerun to the north, if the Agadir Crises occur then maybe the war could start earlier (if it starts at all) because the French wouldn't want to appear weaker in the region and the British would back the Germans.

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I don't think the react much. It would have been after WW1 should have started, so I don't think there is really that much anyone would/could do. The USA does not care much. Germany and the UK have the two strongest navies in the world. I can't see France launching a preemptive war, but to be fair, WW1 was a quite odd beast.

Now if you want to move it up in time before the war, the treaty would also see either a formal or informal understanding reached on the naval race and other issues, and would likely prevent the forming of the cordial Entente. Also, don't see a war over the issue. As we go back in time, Russia is closer to the horrible year of 1905 and France is not ready for a war.

Realistically speaking I think Angola and Mozambique would be split something like the below, with the political situations staying the same, that is Cabinda remaining a seperate Protectorate while Northern Angola would remain a colony.

Iori said:

Realistically speaking I think Angola and Mozambique would be split something like the below, with the political situations staying the same, that is Cabinda remaining a seperate Protectorate while Northern Angola would remain a colony.

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Close on Mozambique. Move the the line to the river bank near the coast, and it looks right from memory. Angola you have wrong. The line run north/south. Germany gets the coast and the high mountains. The UK gets the desert. Basically UK gets eastern 1/3 of Angola.

BlondieBC said:

Close on Mozambique. Move the the line to the river bank near the coast, and it looks right from memory. Angola you have wrong. The line run north/south. Germany gets the coast and the high mountains. The UK gets the desert. Basically UK gets eastern 1/3 of Angola.

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I'm going on what I think they'd divide them like in a vacuum, not based on pre-existing written agreements.

Angola and Mozambique are obviously yummy. Goa is perfectly integrable in the Raj and I can see Macau work as a kind of suburb of Hong Kong.
But why would Britain or Germany want a bite of any of the islands or Portuguese Guinea?

PariahNihil said:

What would happen to Portugal internally, maybe another coup?

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Internal chaos followed by an authoritarian nationalist regime. You know, the same that happened IOTL.
No Colonial War in the long run though.

miguelrj said:

Angola and Mozambique are obviously yummy. Goa is perfectly integrable in the Raj and I can see Macau work as a kind of suburb of Hong Kong. But why would Britain or Germany want a bite of any of the islands or Portuguese Guinea?

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As I wrote earlier, I've never been able to find the actual text of either the 1898 or 1913 agreements so I've never been able to determine just how the UK and Germany actually planned on dividing up Portugal's empire or how much of the empire would be involved.

The closest I came was in a book covering Holstein and his behind the scenes conduct of Wilhelmine foreign policy. Germany wanted more consideration on colonial issues from the UK but, this being the era of "Splendid Isolation", it only brought the Salisbury government to the table by threatening cooperation with France and Russia in colonial issues. Salisbury himself undertook the bulk of the negotiations on the UK side and the territories discussed seem to have only been in Africa.

Germany was supposed to get control of Angola's custom revenues (and thus de facto control of that colony) in return for acquiescing to similar British control of the Delagoa Bay region. Both powers also agreed to prevent any third power intervention in Angola, Mozambique, and Timor.

The part of the agreement dealing with third party intervention in Africa and Timor suggests that the UK and Germany hadn't yet drawn lines on maps. They'd staked out the territories they'd split with each other but, apart from specific agreements concerning customs revenues in Angola and Delagoa Bay, the detailed wrangling over just where the borders would be drawn would wait for Portugal's actual default. Timor was apparently added to the list so that the UK could offer Germany it in return for more in Africa. Holstein seems to have thought this because there's a quote from him to the effect that Germany would be happy with "half" of Angola and Mozambique as long as she also got all of Timor.

I have never been able to find anything written about Goa, Macau, the Azores, or any of Portugal's other colonial possessions. We could assume that in the case of a Portuguese default the UK as a creditor might make private deals with Portugal concerning Goa and Macau, but I've never been able to find anything mentioning that as part of any Anglo-German or other agreement.

As I wrote before, the agreements are fascinating on several levels. First, due to fears that the UK would be able to grab all of Portugal's African territories, Germany was successfully able to force itself into the issue. Next, the UK seems to have negotiated fairly with Germany to screw over Portugal. Finally, both governments had very different perspectives on what sort of future agreements this agreement between them might presage. After the negotiations UK made yet another vague, back door, "officially unofficial" suggestion regarding a defensive alliance between the two powers which Wilhelmine Germany thanks to it's institutional paranoia brushed off. On it's part Germany assumed the agreement now meant UK would be more inclined to back Germany on other colonial issues, an assumption which was quickly disproved over Samoa.

While both sides might have been disappointed that the 1898 agreement didn't lead to more cooperation, that didn't stop them from negotiating on the same issue again in 1913.

Flubber said:

I have never been able to find anything written about Goa, Macau, the Azores, or any of Portugal's other colonial possessions.

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The Azores, like Madeira, were and are integral territories of the Portuguese state, not colonies, so the only way they'd give them up is if they were forced to as a result of being badly beaten in a war in Europe.

Iori said:

The Azores, like Madeira, were and are integral territories of the Portuguese state, not colonies, so the only way they'd give them up is if they were forced to as a result of being badly beaten in a war in Europe.

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Were they such in 1898 or did that arrangement occur afterward?

Flubber said:

Were they such in 1898 or did that arrangement occur afterward?

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They were for centuries; both were originally uninhabited and were populated by the Portuguese themselves in the 15th-16th century.

Flubber said:

(snip -- some details of the agreement)

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Interesting indeed. I didn't even consider the Germans could be interested in Timor BTW...

Flubber said:

Were they such in 1898 or did that arrangement occur afterward?

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Yeap. All Constitutions lumped the Azores and Madeira with the mainland and didn't consider them as colonial/overseas possessions. Being white-only and so close to the mainland they de facto enjoyed that status before constitutional times.

EDIT: ninja'd by Iori