UrbanRedneck
Banned
We talk on here sometimes about what if Japan had tried to hold out but what of the opposite? What if they had surrendered in say 1944?
WI: Japan surrenders early?
- Thread starter UrbanRedneck
- Start date
Don't think it's too likely, but conceivable.
IMO, you'd need to improve the performance of the Pac Flt Sub Force, by
IMO, you'd need to improve the performance of the Pac Flt Sub Force, by
- pulling all boats back to Pearl
- fixing the Mark 6 problems sooner
- avoiding the prewar compromise of the maru code
- all of the above.
Any nonsub event likely to speed things up?
Just for exploring the options, not as a serious disagreement.
Japan's position is tailor-made to be torpedoed by commerce destroyers (whether underwater or not).
Not sure how likely this is but...
Better American torpedoes (Sub, yes, but also aircraft and surface).
Coral Sea: Lexington survives, Shokaku doesn't.
Midway: Hornet's planes don't get lost, 1st Air Fleet destroyed without serious U.S. loss (Yorktown survives).
Savo Island: USN/RAN use radar to ambush Japanese.
And continue from there: everything goes the USN's way, nothing goes right for the IJN. Destruction of IJN earlier results in USN launching weekly carrier raids on the Home Islands, battleship bombardments, it's clearly hopeless earlier.
(I can't imagine all of this happening without a time traveler showing up in 1936 in FDR's office with a copy of The Complete Works of Samuel Eliot Morrison)
After the Battle of the Phillipine Sea, Saipan, the ramping up of shipping losses. Anybody leading in Japan should have know the game was up. (By that point Japan could have probably been defeated (starved out) by a submarine campaign and strategic bombing alone, with the occasional carrier sweep and Battleship bombardment of Japan).
Perhaps a relaxing of the unconditional surrender doctrine, use a "deck of cards" list of war ciminals (so everbody knows who will face trial and who wont) and a clear understanding of what an occupation of Japan might be like (easy in OTL) and how soon she could return to the company of nations (pretty soon OTL).
This might be enough to trigger a coup by a peace party after June 44.
Perhaps a relaxing of the unconditional surrender doctrine, use a "deck of cards" list of war ciminals (so everbody knows who will face trial and who wont) and a clear understanding of what an occupation of Japan might be like (easy in OTL) and how soon she could return to the company of nations (pretty soon OTL).
This might be enough to trigger a coup by a peace party after June 44.
NothingNow
Banned
Only problem is that by March 1942, there weren't many useful bases remaining for the USN to operate commerce raiders from (with Dutch Harbor, Pago Pago and Pearl being the closest locations to important theaters,) and the cruisers they did have on hand were either too valuable to deploy as raiders, or not really suited for the lengthy patrols they'd necessarily be undertaking.
Really, if Malaya and the Dutch East Indies can be retained, you've probably shortened the Pacific war by at least a year.
Aside from that, getting the USN Pacific Fleet (including any floating Standard-Type BBs and the North Carolina-class) into a series of knock-down drag out fights with the IJN's Combined Fleet in the first half of 1942, to burn through the competent parts of the IJN before they can be replaced.
A Raid in force on Truk would be a good option. Expensive as hell as it's better protected than Pearl and they'd see it coming, but it'd seriously cripple the IJN in the Pacific if successful, and it'd make rolling up the South Pacific Mandate much easier.
Alternatively, keeping three or four Submarines on station (with decent torpedoes) in the Vicinity of Truk at all times would seriously inhibit IJN movements.
Also, just having a couple Catalinas checking up on French Frigate Shoals once a week would do wonders.
Breaking Japan earlier than Germany is going to have huge effect on the talks in Yalta. USA has shown USSR how easy it can break a country whit its industrial power and air force. FDR might feel like saying NO more to Stalin than before. After all there are now more resources and men to throw on Germany and less need to give USSR lend-lease aid to finish Germany off.
There might be no military targets to drop the BOMB on so the premier and rush for the BOMB might get delayed to the 60is. The nuclear technology is there but whit out an early nuclear race there might be a totally different cold war (US feeling a bit cockier whit a secret weapon up its sleeve through the 50is). UK and France not knowing/needing to put resources to develop the BOMB could use it on other things (net gain for rebuilding Europe) and USSR spies in UK not getting any plans would seriously delay development there. When the race for the BOMB starts in the 60is some more countries might go for it and get it because the civilian technology being higher and all but unless the cold war goes hot US should have the lead in numbers of weapons anyway well into the 80is as everyone else have done less weapon design research.
The reconstruction of Japan's colonial possessions whiteout Soviet is going to change Korea, Taiwan and China beyond recognition. Less dead and injured in Japan, China and among the Allies from less fighting would have immense effects too. There might be an earlier end to the Chinese civil war whit US support for the nationalists and less room and support for the communists. A occupation government for Manchuria and Taiwan respectively until a united Chinese government could be trusted take control might be in the cards, different general governors for Korea and Japan might be the way to stick it to MacArthur’s ego (give Japan to McArthur and Korea to someone he dislikes).
The question of how and when Japan surrenders in 44 is needed to be answered to know how it affects the European theater. If significant air and fleet (marine) resources could be shifted to Italy before December 44 North Italy might be done for earlier and used to pummel a road into Austria and north Yugoslavia by mid-45 securing these parts from USSR. Best case US occupied Austria, free democratic Czechoslovakia (might opt for Neutrality later thou) and a US USSR split Yugoslavia (would be fun to make a TL about a split Yugoslavia whit western Croatia and Soviet Serbia and the strangeness of both of them claiming to be the true Yugoslavian state).
There might be no military targets to drop the BOMB on so the premier and rush for the BOMB might get delayed to the 60is. The nuclear technology is there but whit out an early nuclear race there might be a totally different cold war (US feeling a bit cockier whit a secret weapon up its sleeve through the 50is). UK and France not knowing/needing to put resources to develop the BOMB could use it on other things (net gain for rebuilding Europe) and USSR spies in UK not getting any plans would seriously delay development there. When the race for the BOMB starts in the 60is some more countries might go for it and get it because the civilian technology being higher and all but unless the cold war goes hot US should have the lead in numbers of weapons anyway well into the 80is as everyone else have done less weapon design research.
The reconstruction of Japan's colonial possessions whiteout Soviet is going to change Korea, Taiwan and China beyond recognition. Less dead and injured in Japan, China and among the Allies from less fighting would have immense effects too. There might be an earlier end to the Chinese civil war whit US support for the nationalists and less room and support for the communists. A occupation government for Manchuria and Taiwan respectively until a united Chinese government could be trusted take control might be in the cards, different general governors for Korea and Japan might be the way to stick it to MacArthur’s ego (give Japan to McArthur and Korea to someone he dislikes).
The question of how and when Japan surrenders in 44 is needed to be answered to know how it affects the European theater. If significant air and fleet (marine) resources could be shifted to Italy before December 44 North Italy might be done for earlier and used to pummel a road into Austria and north Yugoslavia by mid-45 securing these parts from USSR. Best case US occupied Austria, free democratic Czechoslovakia (might opt for Neutrality later thou) and a US USSR split Yugoslavia (would be fun to make a TL about a split Yugoslavia whit western Croatia and Soviet Serbia and the strangeness of both of them claiming to be the true Yugoslavian state).
Would a negotiated surrender (only way I could see them surrendering earlier) Japan give up Taiwan and Korea?
Yes, you had the Cairo Declaration, but if given an earlier peace offer would they pass it up? Also, would the U.S. so no to the chance to Occupy Manchuria? Yes, again it supposed to be returned to China according to the Cairo Declaration. However, a more successful U.S. might look more toward it's own interests.
Japan's doctrine seemed to be fixated on winning the "one decisive" battle, since that is how it went in the Russian-Japanese war (in there mind). A POD in 1943 (as long as it is pre-Cairo) victory might of been seen as that "decisive battle," which means Japan would try to negotiate an early exit from the war. However, would the Allies negotiate is the real question?
Yes, you had the Cairo Declaration, but if given an earlier peace offer would they pass it up? Also, would the U.S. so no to the chance to Occupy Manchuria? Yes, again it supposed to be returned to China according to the Cairo Declaration. However, a more successful U.S. might look more toward it's own interests.
Japan's doctrine seemed to be fixated on winning the "one decisive" battle, since that is how it went in the Russian-Japanese war (in there mind). A POD in 1943 (as long as it is pre-Cairo) victory might of been seen as that "decisive battle," which means Japan would try to negotiate an early exit from the war. However, would the Allies negotiate is the real question?
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Given that OTL the japanese almost were kept from surrendering after two abombs were dropped on them, and the Soviets had declared war, its really, really hard to see them surrendering in 44.
Aside Coral Sea going better for Nimitz, not too many. Nimitz not ordering the Makin Raid, so the Gilberts are less well-defended would work. MacArthur falling down a flight of stairs would, of course, be good, too.Elfwine said:
No Doolittle mission?
I also neglected to mention changing priority on tankers to #1 for the Sub Force, & redeploying only to Luzon Strait & around Home Waters.
Offhand, IDK when it was done, but improving facilities at Midway would be good, too, because it'd improve the turnaround time for subs.
How do you see achieving that? Since the U.S. was pretty much doing everything possible already...Catspoke said:
IMO, this would be good. It does require Japan being willing...Catspoke said:
Since the first was impossible, the second is, too. More to the point, Kimmel wouldn't have had the CVs to make trying it a good call anyhow.
Bad, bad decision.NothingNow said:
Task forces are damned hard targets, & IJN bases are heavily defended. You want you boats off Bungo & Kii Suido, Tsushima, the Yellow Sea, & Luzon/Formosa Straits.If you want to immobilize IJN, kill tankers.
Or mine the IJN harbor approaches. And refresh as needed. (For that, you can use Narwhal, Nautilus, & Argonaut, which are really to big & old for front line duty anyhow.) Add DF & traffic analysis to monitor movements of IJN minesweepers--& shoot them as they arrive.Paul V McNutt
Banned
If somehow this were possible, then by early 1945, the US, UK Pacific vets are in Europe The US and UK take Warsaw and Prague. Poland and the Czech Republic are the frontline nations of NATO.This has a big effect on Yalta and the Chinese Civil War.
Surrender Early?
Yes, if doolittle type / carrier raid hits High command while in conference soon after Midway. Leaving stunned but unharmed Emperor. Even he would see the hand of god at that point. Especially if the only faction able to put forward a fubctioning government is the Peace faction.
Yes, if doolittle type / carrier raid hits High command while in conference soon after Midway. Leaving stunned but unharmed Emperor. Even he would see the hand of god at that point. Especially if the only faction able to put forward a fubctioning government is the Peace faction.
I can't see them surrending that early, but if they did - here are the major departures.
1) No Ichigo means Nationalist China survives with much greater prestige and people in central and southern China never lose their faith in the government.
2) No Soviet occupation of Manchuria or Korea. Manchuria retains the industrial base there instead of it being sized and sent to the Soviet Union.
3) The CCP does not get any substantial aid given to them from the Red Army.
4) With the Chinese ports opens again, China's economy is greatly improved from its bad condition in late 1944 and 1945 caused by economic isolation.
5) With the war in Europe still going on, the US is not going to be pressing Chiang too hard to play nice with Mao. It gives Chiang some time to really put the screws on Mao. It's possible that Mao loses influence in the CCP to a faction willing to work with the KMT, and the CCP is incorporated back into it under Zhou Enlai. This is very debateable, but it is a possibility.
6) Indochina becomes de facto independent since there are no available French troops to be sent there for some time. Probably the same for the Dutch East Indies. The British are probably able to reoccupy Malaya and Singapore though.
7) FDR has no need to ask for Soviet help in Asia, so he may be willing to work with Churchill on getting better guarantees with Stalin at Yalta.
8) Depending on how early in 1944 Japan surrenders, it may mean additional forces available to be transferred to Europe. That may mean a different area of occupation for the Red Army. Probably not too much change, but a landing in Greece or a breakthrough in Italy could mean one or two countries are saved from Communism.
1) No Ichigo means Nationalist China survives with much greater prestige and people in central and southern China never lose their faith in the government.
2) No Soviet occupation of Manchuria or Korea. Manchuria retains the industrial base there instead of it being sized and sent to the Soviet Union.
3) The CCP does not get any substantial aid given to them from the Red Army.
4) With the Chinese ports opens again, China's economy is greatly improved from its bad condition in late 1944 and 1945 caused by economic isolation.
5) With the war in Europe still going on, the US is not going to be pressing Chiang too hard to play nice with Mao. It gives Chiang some time to really put the screws on Mao. It's possible that Mao loses influence in the CCP to a faction willing to work with the KMT, and the CCP is incorporated back into it under Zhou Enlai. This is very debateable, but it is a possibility.
6) Indochina becomes de facto independent since there are no available French troops to be sent there for some time. Probably the same for the Dutch East Indies. The British are probably able to reoccupy Malaya and Singapore though.
7) FDR has no need to ask for Soviet help in Asia, so he may be willing to work with Churchill on getting better guarantees with Stalin at Yalta.
8) Depending on how early in 1944 Japan surrenders, it may mean additional forces available to be transferred to Europe. That may mean a different area of occupation for the Red Army. Probably not too much change, but a landing in Greece or a breakthrough in Italy could mean one or two countries are saved from Communism.
NothingNow
Banned
Bad, bad decision.
If you want to immobilize IJN, kill tankers.
Truk is pretty much the IJN's major operational base in the South Pacific (and a major fleet base period,) and the IJN has pretty bad ASW assets.
UrbanRedneck
Banned
Those are all great options and would butterfly away both the Korean and Vietnam wars. Also no red China.
The bonus here is, the forces that will be freed up will be the ones who are best at forcing landings on contested shores, and the forces best suited to supporting them. This gives the US additional diplomatic power not only with the allies, but also with neutral parties too (eg Franco's Spain).
I'd been thinking about this for the Anti FAT scenario I'd been mulling over for a while. My idea was to have Hirohito die, have Prince_Mikasa wind up on the throne...and essentially against the war as well as looking for a way out. This is a man who condemned Japanese atrocities in China; he's a great choice for someone to try to improve Japan in this period.
If Douglas MacArthur gets killed in the Phillipines and the United States decides to push directly for Japan, the timetable for encircling Japan itself may well get moved up considerably, upping the pressure on Japan as well.
To most reasonable men, Japan would be beaten in this alt-1944. Former PM Fumimaro_Konoe advised Hirohito to seek a negotiated peace before the country was threatened by a communist overthrow; my thinking is that you get Mikasa on the Throne, Konoe as PM. Isoroku Yamamoto is placed in charge of the Navy; Tomoyuki Yamashita, is placed in charge of the Army. Both Yamamoto and Yamashita are highly intelligent, reasonable people who warned against the war and tried to run it in a reasonable way, and would probably agree that surrender is necessary.
So, with the situation essentially hopeless in 1944, Emperor Mikasa and his Cabinet decide to surrender to the United States and United Kingdom. There is an insurrection like OTL, but its likewise crushed. VJ Day, 1944.
There's nothing there really worth it. Subs are much better deployed against merchantment. Carriers & other heavies are strongly escorted & fast, making them damn hard to attack, especially near major bases, where there's good enemy air cover. Nimitz is much better advised IMO to mine the approaches, refresh as needed, & shoot the minesweepers. (IJN minesweeping was a joke.NothingNow said:
)To track them, I'd be using traffic analysis & a watch on the movement cypher. (I presume Hypo had broken it & could keep current, or reasonably current.)
I presume, here, you've forgotten the Sub Force & Midway...?NothingNow said: