AHC: Make Ireland a heavily militarized country

With any POD after 1920, make the modern-day Republic of Ireland a heavily militarized country. By militarized, I mean the following:

* Well-armed and trained and fairly sizable land, air, and naval forces.

* Conscription.

* Large military budget.

* A highly effective foreign intelligence service.

Have fun!
 
Last edited:
Given that Ireland today, if I recall correctly, still has not significantly surpassed its pre-Gorta Mór population, I'm having a difficult time believing it could become sustain a significant military state, especially with the UK being right there and probably uneager to have a heavily militarized country sitting right next to it.

Especially seeing as any Irish military state would almost by necessity probably have to be based around hatred of the UK.

Further, while I can see Ireland going Fascist easily enough, I can't see it as being an Axis power. Ireland's total population (Republic, that is) in 1936 was about 3 million people. The UK's population was about 48 million. I'm not even sure the UK would notice that the Irish had joined the Axis - 1945 would roll around and some British middle class family would be looking to go on a country trip to the Republic for holiday and then be told at the ferry station that didn't they know there's a war going on?

Oh dear, I can see the angrily-worded letter now.

"To whom it may concern,

"This previous Sunday I, my wife, and my two children hopped on the ferry bound for Dublin in order to begin our holidays, our first since the Blitz, I might add. We were quite looking forward to it. However, on reaching Dublin we were informed that Ireland was in fact in a state of war with England as a member of the Axis Powers, and that we would have to turn around and go home, or else we would be shot.

"This situation is frankly an intolerable state of affairs, and someone should do something about it.

"Signed,

- John Doe."

Then the letter would be sent off, lost for awhile, before finally reaching someone in 1946, who would then bring it to Parliament. They'd rifle through their documents, realize they'd completely forgotten about Ireland declaring war on the UK, and proceed to curbstomp. Note that this is post-war United Kingdom doing the cubstomping.

USA: Want some help?
UK: Thanks, but no, I think we can handle this one on our own.
USA: Okay, call us if you need us.
 
Last edited:
Given that Ireland today, if I recall correctly, still has not significantly surpassed its pre-Gorta Mór population, I'm having a difficult time believing it could become sustain a significant military state, especially with the UK being right there and probably uneager to have a heavily militarized country sitting right next to it.

Especially seeing as any Irish military state would almost by necessity probably have to be based around hatred of the UK.

First off, I doubt that the UK would go to war against Ireland unless provoked. They would not be stupid enough to do it over a military buildup.

First off, Ireland doesn't have to sustain a significant military force according to world standards. But it has to be a lot more than the current state of the Irish military. Perhaps a highly mechanized army with significant artillery and armor capabilities and a few tens of thousands of well-armed and trained troops, a small but effective air force with fighter jets, and a navy with a force of well-armed warships and one or a few submarines. As well as defensive plans designed to bleed an invader white via fierce military defenses and a guerrilla campaign.

If it is based on hatred of the UK, they don't have to be able to defeat it, just provide a good deterrent.
 
First off, I doubt that the UK would go to war against Ireland unless provoked. They would not be stupid enough to do it over a military buildup.

Perhaps not, if for no other reason than with its population never being much more than 6% that of the UK - and that's just England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, mind, it's not counting dominions and colonies - then the UK would have no reason to every worry about Ireland.

But if Ireland was stupid enough to join the Axis as suggested by jotabe? The UK wouldn't even notice taking it out.

Which, of course, suggests that any militarized Ireland is going to probably go the way of Franco and keep out of the Axis.

First off, Ireland doesn't have to sustain a significant military force according to world standards. But it has to be a lot more than the current state of the Irish military. Perhaps a highly mechanized army with significant artillery and armor capabilities and a few tens of thousands of well-armed and trained troops, a small but effective air force with fighter jets, and a navy with a force of well-armed warships and one or a few submarines. As well as defensive plans designed to bleed an invader white via fierce military defenses and a guerrilla campaign.
Not seeing it. Where is Ireland getting the money for all this, first of all? Remember, you didn't ask for a better army, you asked for a heavily militarized Ireland.

Unless Ireland has some market or resource cornered that I'm not aware of*, I can't see how it could possibly pay for a heavy military without transforming into a DPRK-style setup. And could the UK really let such a thing exist just off its own shores in the modern world? Especially seeing as it's not like Ireland would have some kind of China-like protector state that it could run under the skirt of.

-------------------------
*[Insert alcohol joke here]. My parents are both Irish, I'm allowed to make these kinds of jokes. Like N-word privileges**
**[Insert The Commitments line here]
 
Last edited:
What about an Ireland that becomes an independent republic following a crushing British defeat in the Great War, and ends up aligned with Germany? It would need a strong military both to deter a British invasion and to repress secession in Ulster, which would become part of the Irish Republic. Over the course of the next decades, it could become a state with an ingrained military culture (it becomes an expectation that its politicians have military experience, say), and regardless of its relationship with Britain, maintain a well-armed and trained force as well as conscription.
 
What about an Ireland that becomes an independent republic following a crushing British defeat in the Great War, and ends up aligned with Germany? It would need a strong military both to deter a British invasion and to repress secession in Ulster, which would become part of the Irish Republic. Over the course of the next decades, it could become a state with an ingrained military culture (it becomes an expectation that its politicians have military experience, say), and regardless of its relationship with Britain, maintain a well-armed and trained force as well as conscription.

The requested POD is 1920 - the UK has already won the Great War by that point, unless I've missed my mark.

Protip: I have not.
 
The requested POD is 1920 - the UK has already won the Great War by that point, unless I've missed my mark.

Protip: I have not.

Ahh, missed that. Hmmmm... perhaps a socialist Britain, which undergoes substantial internal strife? Similarly to what I described below, an authoritarian Irish republic (under President Michael Collins?) could invade Ulster and annex it. It would definitely need an army to repress the Protestant resistance in the north, although if France came under an authoritarian, right-wing government, it could get all the support and arms it needs.
 
Ahh, missed that. Hmmmm... perhaps a socialist Britain, which undergoes substantial internal strife? Similarly to what I described below, an authoritarian Irish republic (under President Michael Collins?) could invade Ulster and annex it. It would definitely need an army to repress the Protestant resistance in the north, although if France came under an authoritarian, right-wing government, it could get all the support and arms it needs.

And would be inviting being stomped on hard by Britain.

Why would Ireland - assuming sane leadership - want to become highly militarized? It doesn't serve any national interests - it's best bet with the UK is to avoid confrontation, not to provoke it.
 
Ahh, missed that. Hmmmm... perhaps a socialist Britain, which undergoes substantial internal strife? Similarly to what I described below, an authoritarian Irish republic (under President Michael Collins?) could invade Ulster and annex it. It would definitely need an army to repress the Protestant resistance in the north, although if France came under an authoritarian, right-wing government, it could get all the support and arms it needs.

...mmmn....possibly. I think the only way you're going to get a significantly militarized Ireland that isn't slapped down by the UK at some point, is if you include the dissolution of the UK as part of the deal, with, say, Wales and Scotland favoring Ireland, while England...is considerably more concerned with Wales and Scotland than it is with Ireland. So, basically, it's irrelevant how militarized Ireland is, because the only reason for it to be so militarized - hatred of England - is irrelevant to England, because England has bigger fish to fry.

But I doubt that's very likely for various reasons (The UK ever really breaking up, that is - Scotland will be sovereign only after Puerto Rico becomes a US state). Point being that Ireland is only ever going to be a bit player in the British Isles, and one day it's going to have to learn to accept that fact.

Again, speaking as someone of direct Irish descent, who's been to Ireland...far too often.
 
Not seeing it. Where is Ireland getting the money for all this, first of all? Remember, you didn't ask for a better army, you asked for a heavily militarized Ireland.

Unless Ireland has some market or resource cornered that I'm not aware of*, I can't see how it could possibly pay for a heavy military without transforming into a DPRK-style setup. And could the UK really let such a thing exist just off its own shores in the modern world? Especially seeing as it's not like Ireland would have some kind of China-like protector state that it could run under the skirt of.

By militarized, I mean something like South Korea, Taiwan, or Israel. As in, conscription of the population, possibly an ingrained military culture, and a significant portion of the national resources devoted to creating an effective military force

Any Irish military is going to be puny, but it can be effective to a certain point.
 
By militarized, I mean something like South Korea, Taiwan, or Israel. As in, conscription of the population, possibly an ingrained military culture, and a significant portion of the national resources devoted to creating an effective military force

Any Irish military is going to be puny, but it can be effective to a certain point.

Effective to a certain point against whom? Not the United Kingdom, that's for sure, not unless the Irish somehow find a way to quintuple their population, at least.

See, here's the thing. Israel has a military-heavy society because of a very real fear that it could be invaded on all sides at any point: it's happened numerous times in its very short history. South Korea was birthed from a violent civil war, the fallout of the Cold War, and the fact that North Korea still claims South Korea and that North Korea is a horrible military-with-a-state that really would pounce on South Korea if they thought they had a chance. And, modern Taiwan was born from the ashes of the Chinese civil war and KMT forces that fled to the island.

But Ireland? Okay, it broke away from the United Kingdom, but it's not like the war was a particularly drawn-out affair that suggested the possibility of the UK pouncing on it in the future. I cannot conceive of a situation wherein it would be in its best interests to maintain an Israel-style military society. The UK is never going to want it back; the UK is never going to make overtures to that effect the way the PRC does to Taiwan or North Korea does to South Korea or half the Arab world does to Israel; and the Irish would be committing national suicide if they tried to seize Northern Ireland or ever seriously looked like they were going to make the attempt. And I cannot concieve of where they'd get the money or the population to pull it off, either.

Basically...what I'm saying here, is that a heavily militarized Ireland is, for all intents and purposes, ASB.
 
Last edited:
Effective to a certain point against whom? Not the United Kingdom, that's for sure, not unless the Irish somehow find a way to quintuple their population, at least.

See, here's the thing. Israel has a military-heavy society because of a very real fear that it could be invaded on all sides at any point: it's happened numerous times in its very short history. South Korea was birthed from a violent civil war, the fallout of the Cold War, and the fact that North Korea still claims South Korea and that North Korea is a horrible military-with-a-state that really would pounce on South Korea if they thought they had a chance. And, modern Taiwan was born from the ashes of the Chinese civil war and KMT forces that fled to the island.

But Ireland? Okay, it broke away from the United Kingdom, but it's not like the war was a particularly drawn-out affair that suggested the possibility of the UK pouncing on it in the future. I cannot conceive of a situation wherein it would not be in its best interests to maintain an Israel-style military society. The UK is never going to want it back; the UK is never going to make overtures to that effect the way the PRC does to Taiwan or North Korea does to South Korea or half the Arab world does to Israel; and the Irish would be committing national suicide if they tried to seize Northern Ireland or ever seriously looked like they were going to make the attempt. And I cannot concieve of where they'd get the money or the population to pull it off, either.

Basically...what I'm saying here, is that a heavily militarized Ireland is, for all intents and purposes, ASB.

Well, then perhaps the challenge is finding the way to create a hostile UK, which results in a sufficiently paranoid Ireland.

Perhaps the Irish War of Independence drags on past 1921 and gets more brutal, and Ireland becomes a waste of resources so the British just disgorge the area that is now the Republic and hold on to Northern Ireland. Ireland is still paranoid of the British, and so institutes military conscription and begins arming itself, etc.
 
Perhaps the Irish War of Independence drags on past 1921 and gets more brutal, and Ireland becomes a waste of resources so the British just disgorge the area that is now the Republic and hold on to Northern Ireland. Ireland is still paranoid of the British, and so institutes military conscription and begins arming itself, etc.

But why would the UK remain hostile? It's only reason for doing so would be if it seriously thought that the Republic was going to make an effort to take Northern Ireland, and if it seriously thought that this was going to happen...again, a heavily industrialized nation of 48 million people is not going to lose a prolonged conflict with an agrarian nation of 3 million people.

Besides which, the IRA was already facing arms and ammunition issues in 1921. To put it simply, I doubt that the IRA could have kept the war going through 1922, let alone been able to maintain the years-long slog that such a British withdrawal as you're suggesting would require.
 
Having Ireland involved in WW2 is probably the best chance, the end result being inclusion in NATO and a much larger militarization for Ireland. Now however, this does not mean a top notch military. At best, Ireland has a good to decent sized arsenal with about OTL's force.
 
Not seeing it. Where is Ireland getting the money for all this, first of all? Remember, you didn't ask for a better army, you asked for a heavily militarized Ireland.

Unless Ireland has some market or resource cornered that I'm not aware of*, I can't see how it could possibly pay for a heavy military without transforming into a DPRK-style setup. And could the UK really let such a thing exist just off its own shores in the modern world? Especially seeing as it's not like Ireland would have some kind of China-like protector state that it could run under the skirt of.

Yes, i can't get past of these problems.

My initial idea was having a successful coup by O'Duffy on 1932 or 33 (iirc there were 2 occasions that could have triggered it). This aligns Ireland with Italy (O'Duffy was an admirer of Mussolini), and later it would align them with Germany as part of the Anticomintern pact.. This could increase the degree of militarization through exchange of military advisors.

Ireland might or might not actually join the pact of steel. In the months previous to the beginning of the WWI, the Germans would see their location as a privileged airstrip to use against Britain, should they declare war on Germany after the invasion of Poland. They probably would try to have a permanent military presence in the isle.

During what would be the "sitzkrieg" IOTL, a preemptive attack from Britain on Ireland could be likely, given the presence of German forces, regardless of whether the Irish actually declared war on Britain or not.
Now, this could open up the game of the WWII in many ways, depending on whether the invasion can be repealed thanks to the German troops, or if Ireland becomes occupied by the English again.

The outcome of the WWII could be irrelevant at this point, the enmity between Ireland and UK would be too great. Under the likely assumption of an Allied victory similar to OTL, Ireland could regain their independence thanks to soviet-supplied communist independentist guerrilla/terrorism. With the enmity between Ireland and UK, Irish population would probably be sympathetic to any enemy of the English, so support for communism might be not too much of a stretch, even within the Irish church.
This would greatly militarize Ireland (with Soviet money).

On the collapse of the Soviet Union, we might need some serious butterfly nets, to keep the country militarized while not rich: let's use the emergence of Venezuela IOTL as economic sustain of many of the disenfranchised small communist countries, and Ireland doesn't need to go "full-dystopian", a-la North Korea. More like the Cuba of the Northern Atlantic.
 
There are a few different bits that might create a more militrised Ireland, though there will always be limits to that. Lets face it ROI against the UK is only going to end one way.

From 1920 onwards, first I don't think the Free State could force/hold Ulster if there was resistance in Ulster against it, the State and it's forces were just too young for something like that in my view.

From 22 on, there are options, there was a What If program a while back on RTE that Belfast sent me the link to, one of the episodes was about Collins. In it they talked about him looking at the continent for options for the new State rather than just the UK. One of the things they mentioned was him suggesting a delegation sent to look at the Swiss model of service, and if it could be used in Ireland. Have him survive or just have the delegation already sent and supported in the Cabinet (maybe as something for Collin's legacy) and that gets you a form of Conscription. Follow through into WW2 and perhaps a more international Ireland looks at the neutral nations getting rolled over and decides that's not going to happen to Ireland and so starts fully investing in it's defences.

In OTL we bought 200+ Bren Carriers and a couple of LV60's perhaps the tank order is expanded to create a permanent armoured battalion strength (post War buy enough Comets and spares to support this, following on maybe look at whatever is cheap and cheerful to support it). Perhaps Ireland's own main defence exporter Timoney gets more State support and orders (ie, modern purchases of either the Bushmaster, or the Taiwanese CM-32 both ha significant design work done in Ireland (the CM-32 prototypes were done here)

If the Navy avoids being shut down the first time perhaps it could have a couple of WW1 hulls still in service by WW2, maybe see some anti sub action to prove how important they were. If not post WW2 it avoids being shut down again and gets the full order of 6 Flowers (perhaps as well get a couple of Minesweepers as we had the RN in Cork for 2 years post war doing this), this means twice as many ships, crew, support facilities, which means that going forward the capabilities could be more (if in OTL the Navy has managed to go from 3-0-8 hulls then from 6-10/12 might be doable if originally stronger). Better yard management and you could have at least 3 Ethine's with on board helicopter operations. IN OTL by the Crash we were looking at a modified Absalon class for UN operations perhaps greater UN op's might drive a cheap Expeditionary investment prior to that.

For air operations, perhaps have the UK/NATO firmly state that they had enough duties without covering Irish airspace combined with some Russian intrusions might encourage more investment in post Vampire/Fourga units. Perhaps more effort is made to get a more full up trainer system like either the Hawk, or depending on the relationship with the UK and time something like the Alpha. Ireland is never going to be able to support much larger than armed trainers, but these would be more than we have. Better investment in helicopters (perhaps more investment for Air/Sea rescue leading to bigger variants)

But leaving aside large scale changes, like I said there are small bits that could change things across the century. Not sure it gets you what you want but it improves Ireland a good bit, a less censored coverage of WW2 might draw attention to Ireland's needs, and perhaps has the Defence Forces treated better post war (not shut down the Navy again for 1:mad:)

A better coverage/reporting/respect of the Irish forces and their actions in the Congo (the Siege of Jadotville), or coverage of the failure of the equipment they were deployed with, leading to more funding for the forces. Following on Ireland is in a better position to perform UN operations as we actually have the equipment perhaps?

A better ship building plan for the Navy (according to one of the managers there had been some interest in the Irish designs by the US Coastguard given our sea conditions, not sure if that's accurate), leading to a better operational capability and realisation of export potential, (ie if the Cork yard had better internal IR, they might have been able to complete the original Eithne's and been able to market a OPV/Research vessel design to nations).

If we hadn't had twits in Government during the boom, perhaps the Air Corps might have ended up with a dozen or so of Blackhawks instead of the AW 139's we have. (apparently the Blackhawk was considered "too military" for the Air Corps by the politicians:rolleyes::rolleyes::confused:). Or moved earlier on more P50 buys/start the P60 builds before the combination of the crash and the yard having other work delayed them until 2014.

Edit: and Apparently we do have a foreign intelligence service, don't know about anything more than that but it's in the budget (or knowing us it could be a slush fund but given the inability of the Government to keep things like that secret it's more likely an actual thing.
 
Last edited:
Having Ireland involved in WW2 is probably the best chance, the end result being inclusion in NATO and a much larger militarization for Ireland. Now however, this does not mean a top notch military. At best, Ireland has a good to decent sized arsenal with about OTL's force.

It would depend, if Ireland went for rationalisation of the Army for example to better support the Air Corps/Navy things might be different.

A while back I helped in a discussion about a 32 country Ireland still in the Commonwealth/NATO have a look at what I though might be a reasonable force/equipment level for that.

Obviously a post 1922 26 county Republic would be different but it might give some suggestions of what areas might be looked at, my suggested OOB is post 73

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=6507265#post6507265
 
Last edited:

Pangur

Donor
To make this happen I would agree that UK is the answer as it were. In truth I can't see any realistic way to make this happen however in the spirit of the board I would like to suggest two options

1: A socialist UK that was weaken enough for Germany to occupy it in ww2 (POD 1926) and then have the Irish be offered and accepted US military help. In this TL the liberation of Europe is launched from Ireland - 8th AF based there etc. Post ww2 the Irish are one of founding nations of NATO and keep a strong military force based on keeping the atlantic open. This TL would require no economic down turn in the 50`s which with a closer involvement with the US is not ASB IMHO

2: Have the Irish Gov make a deal with the US in 1940 for build up the defense forces in case the UK fails. The rest goes as above. POD for this, 1922 - Collins survives and far shorter civil war
 
Top