Japan Not in WWII

Max Rakus · Dec 10, 2012

What if Japan became isolationist in the 1920s and managed not to get in to world war 2? How soon would have the United States get in to world war 2? Would Nazi Germany have had any allies? Would have an atomic bomb even been dropped?
Would have Japan even trade with the US today in that ATL?

Rubicon · Dec 10, 2012

Max Rakus said:
What if Japan became isolationist in the 1920s ...

No, just no.
You'll need a PoD before 1900, impossible otherwise, and I usually think most things are.

To begin with Japan was dragged out of isolationism by their hair and once out if it, Japanese leaders realised it needed to industrialise and modernise fast or go down the route of China or India. Something Japan succeded at.

By 1900 isolationism was dead in Japan, utterly and irrevocably dead. Even a disasterous loss in the Russo-Japanese war, however unlikely, wouldn't revive this idea.

If you want to have Japan avoid a war with the USA, you need to unradicalise the Japanese army, and to some extent the entire japanese society, and bring the army under civilian control, something that's virtually to late by 1920.

amphibulous · Dec 10, 2012

Rubicon said:
If you want to have Japan avoid a war with the USA, you need to unradicalise the Japanese army, and to some extent the entire japanese society, and bring the army under civilian control, something that's virtually to late by 1920.

Alternatively they could just grow a brain. The US had ten times the industrial output of Japan; going to war was an act of exceptional stupidity.

amphibulous · Dec 10, 2012

Here's one way -

- The US doesn't manage to split up the Japanese-British relationship at the Washington Naval Conference - because the Americans are a bit less racist and hypocritical, the British push back a little more, and the Japanese less over-sensitive

- Japan still occupies Manchuria in 1931, but it's more careful about the tactics it uses, because it still has friends to lose. And these friends help out it PR wise. There's no Rape of Nanking, and the Japanese are much more cautious about how much of China they try to take. They do NOT try to eat the whole thing, which was just silly anyway. They make a point of encouraging US missionaries. The Japanese Zone has an elected government with very limited powers and is the best governed and safest part of China. There are splendid opportunities for big US investors, which means the press is soon very favorable to Japan.

- When France falls, the grab French Indochina - as a quasi British ally.

amphibulous · Dec 10, 2012

There's also this argument:

http://www.theamericancause.org/patwhydidjapan.htm

When France capitulated in June 1940, Japan moved into northern French Indochina. And though the United States had no interest there, we imposed an embargo on steel and scrap metal. After Hitler invaded Russia in June 1941, Japan moved into southern Indochina. FDR ordered all Japanese assets frozen.

But FDR did not want to cut off oil. As he told his Cabinet on July 18, an embargo meant war, for that would force oil-starved Japan to seize the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies. But a State Department lawyer named Dean Acheson drew up the sanctions in such a way as to block any Japanese purchases of U.S. oil. By the time FDR found out, in September, he could not back down.

If true, then with more careful US drafting, there is no war.

And (same source - but it is Pat Buchanan!)

Tokyo was now split between a War Party and a Peace Party, with the latter in power. Prime Minister Konoye called in Ambassador Joseph Grew and secretly offered to meet FDR in Juneau or anywhere in the Pacific. According to Grew, Konoye was willing to give up Indochina and China, except a buffer region in the north to protect her from Stalin, in return for the U.S. brokering a peace with China and opening up the oil pipeline. Konoye told Grew that Emperor Hirohito knew of his initiative and was ready to give the order for Japan's retreat.

And

Fearful of a "second Munich," America spurned the offer. Konoye fell from power and was replaced by Hideki Tojo. Still, war was not inevitable. U.S. diplomats prepared to offer Japan a "modus vivendi." If Japan withdrew from southern Indochina, the United States would partially lift the oil embargo. But Chiang Kai-shek became "hysterical," and his American adviser, one Owen Lattimore, intervened to abort the proposal

If all these things are true, then actually managing a war was a triumph of "negative diplomacy" on both sides and easily avoided with a little extra sense.

Max Rakus · Dec 10, 2012

Oh my god guys. Are you not gonna tell me when the US Enters WWII? Or if Nazi Germany will have any Allies?

Rubicon · Dec 10, 2012

amphibulous said:
Alternatively they could just grow a brain. The US had ten times the industrial output of Japan; going to war was an act of exceptional stupidity.

This is exactly way I hardly post anymore here. Your post, short as it may be, is filled with hindsight, hyperbole and misinformation I can only shake my head and sigh in frustration.

amphibulous said:
Alternatively they could just grow a brain.

Hyperbole.
I'm quite sure the Japanese leaders each had a functional brain.

amphibulous said:
The US had ten times the industrial output of Japan;

Misinformation.
Really? Ten times? Care to back that up with any numbers? What was the iron ore production compared between Japan and the USA? Steel production? Coal production? Electricity production? etc.

While I will agree that the industrial production of the USA was vastly greater then the Japanese, don't give numbers unless you are ready to back them up.

amphibulous said:
going to war was an act of exceptional stupidity.

Hindsight.
For the Japanese leaders at that point, it made perfect sense to go to war.

Cook · Dec 10, 2012

Max Rakus said:
Oh my god guys. Are you not gonna tell me when the US Enters WWII? Or if Nazi Germany will have any Allies?

Nazi Germany already had allies: Italy, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, and nominally Spain and Vichy France.

A poll taken in November 1941 had opposition to American involvement in the European war at 79%, so direct US involvement in the war without being attacked was very unlikely, particularly when Roosevelt’s policy was to provide assistance to the British and Russians so that America wouldn’t have to fight.

Coalition · Dec 10, 2012

amphibulous said:
Alternatively they could just grow a brain. The US had ten times the industrial output of Japan; going to war was an act of exceptional stupidity.

Let's break that down, with data from here. During the Depression America had:

Nearly twice the population of Japan.
Seventeen time's Japan's national income.
Five times more steel production.
Seven times more coal production.
Eighty (80) times the automobile production.

In terms of warship production, the United States built eight times as many carriers as Japan.

In terms of merchant ship production, in 1942, '43, '44, and '45 we built more tonnage in each of those years than Japan built total in WW2. In 1943 and 1944 we more than doubled Japan's total production.

In terms of air power, in 1943 and 1944 we built more airplanes in each of those years than Japan built it total in WW2. In 1943 the Zero ws no longer the top fighter plane, so the new construction was not just higher in volume, but also higher in capability. This is ignoring bomber production, where we built ~6 times as many bombers.

For Midway, assuming worst case scenario (we lose all the carriers, Japan loses none), we would have achieved parity with Japanese carriers by the end of 1943, and by 1945 we would have had almost twice as many.

To show the overall economy, look at the Manhattan Project. We did not even know if it would work, but $2B was still spent on it. The United States had such an economic advantage that it could waste money on superweapons that required compiling and developing theoretical ideas into practical items.

amphibulous · Dec 10, 2012

Rubicon said:
Originally Posted by amphibulous
Alternatively they could just grow a brain. The US had ten times the industrial output of Japan; going to war was an act of exceptional stupidity.

This is exactly way I hardly post anymore here. Your post, short as it may be, is filled with hindsight, hyperbole and misinformation I can only shake my head and sigh in frustration.

Ok: you believe that it took hindsight to know relative GDP was relevant..?

Hyperbole.
I'm quite sure the Japanese leaders each had a functional brain.

By your standards, this may be true.

Misinformation.
Really? Ten times? Care to back that up with any numbers?

The times is slang for "a lot" (hint: we use decimal numbers!) GDP was actually a factor four:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II

However, 1 to 10 is the commonly accepted ratio of **industrial power**

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=905

Really - one has to ask why you are making Mr Angry posts without knowing the very basics of the thread subject...

What was the iron ore production compared between Japan and the USA? Steel production? Coal production? Electricity production? etc.

Yes: every post should be textbook length! Or consist solely of whining...

Japan was dependent on imports; it was (and is) an island; it didn't have decent ASW capability - war was moronic. It didn't have the capability to train new pilots at a decent rate - again, war was moronic.

Hindsight.
For the Japanese leaders at that point, it made perfect sense to go to war.

Note how Mr Whiner complains that other people don't give enough sources and detail, but his "argument" consists solely of asserting the conclusion....

Kome · Dec 10, 2012

amphibulous said:
They do NOT try to eat the whole thing, which was just silly anyway.

Oh, you mean OTL?

amphibulous · Dec 10, 2012

Coalition said:
Let's break that down, with data from here. During the Depression America had:

Nearly twice the population of Japan.

Seventeen time's Japan's national income.

Five times more steel production.

Seven times more coal production.

Eighty (80) times the automobile production.

And the last was most relevant, because the auto production capability speaks most about how many mechanically complex weapon systems you'll be able to produce. Plus you have to add that attacking US food supply or industrial production significantly is impossible, but you can put Japan in awful state very quickly with a naval blockade, sub war, air dropped mines, etc.

The only excuse for war in Japan's position is an existential threat; that is not what the Japanese faced. And let's not forget that the Japanese signed the Tripartite Pact *before* the US threatened the embargo. This was guaranteed to alarm the USA. The Japanese government put themselves on a mutual escalation highway to war with a power certain to win - but they expected that power to be the one to blink. This does not meet my definition of having a functional brain! This isn't WW1, it's simply being stupid.

Cook · Dec 10, 2012

Rubicon said:
Hindsight.
For the Japanese leaders at that point, it made perfect sense to go to war.

It isn’t hindsight; Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the attack on Pearl Harbour, considered war on the United States to be little short of an act of national suicide. He had also vocally opposed Japan signing the Tripartite Pact. Yamamoto had firsthand experience with America, something Tojo and the other hardliners completely lacked. Yamamoto was extremely lucky not to have been assassinated by Tojo - most who disagreed with the hardliners were. By late 1941 the hardliners insisted that war with the United States was inevitable anyway, largly as a result of the blundering policies they’d enacted.

Alex1guy · Dec 10, 2012

Max Rakus said:
Oh my god guys. Are you not gonna tell me when the US Enters WWII? Or if Nazi Germany will have any Allies?

There are more than 2 countries in the Axis

Japan was just one member. Also, Japan going isolationist in the 20's or whatever would have far reaching effects in the Pacific and the dynamic of relations between the US, Britain and their Pacific sessions and is probably impossible. You need to be very specific on how and why Japan stays out of WWII otherwise you will not get a comprehensive answer, only conjecture and speculation.

Life In Black · Dec 10, 2012

Cook said:
It isn’t hindsight; Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the attack on Pearl Harbour, considered war on the United States to be little short of an act of national suicide. He had also vocally opposed Japan signing the Tripartite Pact. Yamamoto had firsthand experience with America, something Tojo and the other hardliners completely lacked. Yamamoto was extremely lucky not to have been assassinated by Tojo - most who disagreed with the hardliners were. By late 1941 the hardliners insisted that war with the United States was inevitable anyway, largly as a result of the blundering policies they’d enacted.

Exactly. Yamamoto was pretty level-headed all things considered, which is probably why the US took him out as soon as it could.

brokenman · Dec 10, 2012

Oil. Have them discover the Manchurian oil fields. Plus no metal and oil embargo from US. All they need to find is rubber, which they could acquire by occupying 'Vichy' Indochina as somebody said earlier.

M79 · Dec 10, 2012

Three part scenario for consideration:

1) Lots more officers go to the US for tours of duty or advanced degrees, letting them see exactly what they might face

2) Get China a little more organized, just enough that they might have some semblance of working together

3) Have Manchuria go awry with much of the military leadership either killed or disgraced during taking of the province. Make it the last major conquest until Indochina and have most of the officers display seppuku for their Emperor

By 1934 Japan is industrial and certainly more advanced than is first considered, but not the overbearing threat it will be in five years. Keep them out of China and possibly allied to Great Britain for extra points, maybe Japan and the US are on the same team against the Germans in 1943 in the Second War of Central Europe?

*Bonus for a WWII spin-off if China goes Axis and the Japanese have to fight them with Allied help (and technology), maybe they are allowed to claim turf on that premise alone!

Kome · Dec 11, 2012

Cook said:
It isn’t hindsight; Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the attack on Pearl Harbour, considered war on the United States to be little short of an act of national suicide. He had also vocally opposed Japan signing the Tripartite Pact. Yamamoto had firsthand experience with America, something Tojo and the other hardliners completely lacked. Yamamoto was extremely lucky not to have been assassinated by Tojo - most who disagreed with the hardliners were. By late 1941 the hardliners insisted that war with the United States was inevitable anyway, largly as a result of the blundering policies they’d enacted.

Tojo was actually considered a moderate in Japan, in foreign affairs at least. A proponent of fascism in regards to internal affairs, but before Pearl Harbour he was against war with China without just cause, and against war with the Allies u and was noted to be an opponent of expansionist wars. It was the whole reason he was made Prime Minister in the first place. He was seen as the person who would be able to resolve the embargo crisis peacefully, and was pretty disliked by other Japanese radicals.

Of course neither Japan nor America reached a satisfactory agreement which meant war.

As for Yamamoto though, it wasnt just luck. He was actually deployed out to sea on maneuvers semi-permanently to prevent him from being assassinated (ironic when you realized he was assassinated at sea anyways).

M79 said:
1) Lots more officers go to the US for tours of duty or advanced degrees, letting them see exactly what they might face

2) Get China a little more organized, just enough that they might have some semblance of working together

3) Have Manchuria go awry with much of the military leadership either killed or disgraced during taking of the province. Make it the last major conquest until Indochina and have most of the officers display seppuku for their Emperor

Point 1 actually had some rather odd effects OTL. Western trained offices would go back to the home islands and tell their colleagues about what they learned. And in a lot of cases their friends would pick up the completely wrong idea. If they couldnt beat the west then they should go and fight China and the Soviet Union instead. Or that if America was so strong, then they would obviously want to use their miltiary strength to subjugate Japan sooner or later (to be fair the west had spent the last centuries conquering most of the world and seemed to be continuing that).

MattII · Dec 11, 2012

Coalition said:
In terms of air power, in 1943 and 1944 we built more airplanes in each of those years than Japan built it total in WW2. In 1943 the Zero ws no longer the top fighter plane, so the new construction was not just higher in volume, but also higher in capability. This is ignoring bomber production, where we built ~6 times as many bombers.

And many of those were 4-engine jobs, which would be worth two medium bombers or 4 fighters just on that score.

The Oncoming Storm · Dec 11, 2012

brokenman said:
Oil. Have them discover the Manchurian oil fields. Plus no metal and oil embargo from US. All they need to find is rubber, which they could acquire by occupying 'Vichy' Indochina as somebody said earlier.

From what I understand those oilfields couldn't be exploited with 1940's drilling technology.