1932 Weimar elections without Hindenburg

The guy was 84 years old and in poor health. So, let's say, early on in the campaign, he has a stroke and dies. What next ?

Absent any other candidate, I'd say Hitler wins. In all probability, the majority of Hindenburg votes would go to Hitler and those that don't go to Duesterberg. The end result would be putting Nazi's at the helm a year ahead of the schedule, which could possibly lead to war in late 1938 or early 1939.

Shaby said:

Absent any other candidate, I'd say Hitler wins. In all probability, the majority of Hindenburg votes would go to Hitler and those that don't go to Duesterberg. The end result would be putting Nazi's at the helm a year ahead of the schedule, which could possibly lead to war in late 1938 or early 1939.

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But all the forces that supported Hindenburg OTL (conservaties, centre, moderate left) will still see the need to oppose Hitler. Will they do so in a united fashion, as was agreed upon in OTL with respect to Hindenburg ? If so, who do they nominate and what chances does he have ?

If a sane and healthy president is elected, I don't think the nazis have any shot at power other than the next presidental elections in 1939.

Magnum said:

But all the forces that supported Hindenburg OTL (conservaties, centre, moderate left) will still see the need to oppose Hitler. Will they do so in a united fashion, as was agreed upon in OTL with respect to Hindenburg ? If so, who do they nominate and what chances does he have ?

If a sane and healthy president is elected, I don't think the nazis have any shot at power other than the next presidental elections in 1939.

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The way I see it, they nominated Hindenburg, because no one else had enough prestige to stand a chance against Hitler and unite disparate forces you just mentioned. Hindenburg was a powerful symbol.

Even if they did nominate an alternative candidate, it would probably result in a second round of elections. The point is that the Germans were tired of elections. If a 'sane and healthy' president didn't offer mandate to the Nazi's, in all likelihood a new parliamentary elections would result. Again.

Magnum said:

But all the forces that supported Hindenburg OTL (conservaties, centre, moderate left) will still see the need to oppose Hitler. Will they do so in a united fashion, as was agreed upon in OTL with respect to Hindenburg ? If so, who do they nominate and what chances does he have ?

If a sane and healthy president is elected, I don't think the nazis have any shot at power other than the next presidental elections in 1939.

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Agree with all of this -- even if the Nazis do as well in the Parliamentary Elections as OTL, you'd either get the party breaking ranks with Hitler's demand to be appointed Chancellor, or you'd just keep getting elections until a non-crazy government became viable.

As to who the "Weimar Coalition" would run with, absent Hindenburg, I'd say this TL's likely right that Hugo Eckner would be the man.

Shaby said:

The way I see it, they nominated Hindenburg, because no one else had enough prestige to stand a chance against Hitler and unite disparate forces you just mentioned. Hindenburg was a powerful symbol.

Even if they did nominate an alternative candidate, it would probably result in a second round of elections. The point is that the Germans were tired of elections. If a 'sane and healthy' president didn't offer mandate to the Nazi's, in all likelihood a new parliamentary elections would result. Again.

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Even with Hindenburg it resulted in another round, as he only got 49% in round 1.

If the Germans were tired of elections, why were they turning up in so huge numbers ?

Also, lastly, in the november 1932 elections, the nazis lost 34 seats (~4% less of the total vote share), which might indicate that support for them was falling. On the other hand, Hugenberg's DNVP, having backed von Papen in opposition to Hitler in the political fighting that took place in parliament, gained 15 seats (2,43% upswing).

Come to think of it, the situation is so volatile it could probably go any number of ways.

I like the idea of someone like August Mackensen or Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck appearing as candidates with sufficient reputation to unite the traditional conservatives. Both men are reasonable candidates in my opinion since they had a political career in the 30s.

Bump. This was a really cool idea, no takers at all?