WW1 what if: No invasion of Belgium

Danth

What of the Germans never invaded Belgium...

Thoughts:

Gb doesn't enter the war
Ottoman empire doesn't enter the war
Germany and France reach a stalemate very quickly both on land and at sea
Russia falls to Germany latter than OTL as the ottomans keep the straights open
France and Germany continue to fight
In early 1919 a peace treaty is signed



What do you think of this treaty:

France accepts german hold on Alsace Lorraine
France gains Cameroon and togoland

Any thoughts what happens afterwards?
 

d32123

Banned
British would still find an excuse to enter the war. They wouldn't just let the French get beaten down by the Germans.
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

If Great Britain doesn't enter, then it's likely that there will be a defensive stance for Germany in the West, so I think regardless of supplies flowing through the straits (from who?), Russia will fall sooner, rather than later.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Turkey signed a military alliance with Germany on the 2nd of August, before the British and requisitioned their battleships, Belgium had been invaded and Britain had entered the war. Enver Pasha signed the alliance and entered the war in order to rebuild the Ottoman empire by acquiring the Turkic provinces of Caucasus and Central Asia from the Tsar.
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

Cook said:
Turkey signed a military alliance with Germany on the 2nd of August, before the British and requisitioned their battleships, Belgium had been invaded and Britain had entered the war. Enver Pasha signed the alliance and entered the war in order to rebuild the Ottoman empire by acquiring the Turkic provinces of Caucasus and Central Asia from the Tsar.
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Wait, Central Asia:eek:!?! That's...a level of nuttiness I hadn't chalked Enver Pasha quite up to.

Though I heard he died in Central Asia during a campaign or something, I'm not actually familiar with it myself.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Zmflavius said:
Wait, Central Asia:eek:!?! That's...a level of nuttiness I hadn't chalked Enver Pasha quite up to.

Though I heard he died in Central Asia during a campaign or something, I'm not actually familiar with it myself.
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I'm pretty sure he wasn't looking toward Central Asia in regards to actual, annexed territory. Pan-Turkism was never the force pan-Germanism was.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Nietzsche said:
I'm pretty sure he wasn't looking toward Central Asia in regards to actual, annexed territory.
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Apparently he was; Limon Von Sanders says that he burst out laughing when Enver told him his plans, and several members of the Turkish cabinet confirmed that was the case.
 

Sicarius

d32123 said:
British would still find an excuse to enter the war. They wouldn't just let the French get beaten down by the Germans.
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Belgium gave them a very clear reason to get in; it was no small thing, joining the war, and not just any flimsy pretext could sell the people on it.
 
Dorozhand

Dorozhand

Banned
I'd say that Germany will try to ram its forces through Alsace to quickly conquer the remaining portion of it, and then continue on into Champagne-Ardennes while firmly defending the line in Lorraine. It's forces will then get bogged down royally just east of Paris while the French concentrate their assaults on the southern flank.
The war in the west will be an endless game of the Germans moving forces towards Paris, the French attacking the German flank, the Germans shifting to counter, the French pushing the Germans from Paris, the Germans pushing back, ad infinitum.

In the east, Russia will get pummeled badly just like OTL. Some aid will come in through the Bosporus, but not much. The Ottomans may even join the CP at a later date when the Russians really start to show weakness.

The lack of Britain looming over the issue may prompt Italy to remain nuetral or even join the CP if France looks to be at the breaking point.

The ultimate result, though, will be a total German victory.
Without British aid, the French will hold their own for a while, but Russia will be crushed sooner or later, and when it does, Germany will grind through to Paris, the French army will mutiny, and the republic will sue for peace.

Germany annex Luxembourg and the rest of Alsace. Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Livonia, and Finland will become independent, A-H and Bulgaria will divide Serbia, and France will lose a lot of colonies to Germany.

Interesting side note: there might be a possibility that, without the Anglo-Japanese alliance in the way of anything, Japan will join the CP and declare war on Russia. That would be interesting indeed.
 
Michel Van

Michel Van

there are very interesting What If in this scenario

General Von Schlieffen plan
The plan envisaged a rapid German mobilization, disregard for the neutrality of Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands and an overwhelming sweep of the powerful German right wing southwest through Belgium and Northern France to Paris,
while maintaining only a defensive posture on the central and left wings, in Lorraine, the Vosges, and the Moselle.

The German ask politely the Belgium's Government and King Albert I, for moving the germans troops true Belgium, The Belgians refused.
but WI the Belgium Government cowardly accept the demand, knowing they could be invaded instead ?

Emperor Wilhelm II refused the "trespassing" of the Netherlands, but WI he refused also "trespassing" the Kingdom of Belgium ?
Sufficient reason for are Belgium King Family were relatives of German Emperor family.
or that Wilhelm II show same chivalrousness towards Belgium, like he do to the Netherlands ?

the outcome of No invasion of Belgium, would be interesting.
no Von Schlieffen plan, instead the German Army invade Luxembourg (long on the "do want" list of germans emperors)
and attack width front from Luxembourg to border of Switzerland.
that give the German Army a option to move to Lyon and cut off South france from Paris.
the British Empire entrance in War will be delay, because the Neutrality of Belgium and Netherlands are respect.
But there will find a excuse to declare war.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Michel Van said:
Sufficient reason for are Belgium King Family were relatives of German Emperor family.
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Hardly sufficient reason on its own; for Wilhelm, Tsar Nicholas II was Cousin Nicki, although in fact it was the Tsar’s wife Alexandra who was the Kaiser’s cousin. And Wilhelm and George V were also cousins. (As were George V and Nicholas II)

Of far more importance when considering the violation of neutral Belgium was concern for the potential reaction of the British; the Germans discounted the likelihood that the British would intervene, or that if they did, that they could do so with enough forces to make a difference.
 

Derek Jackson

Well there were divisions in otl at the highest level about Britain going to war. I think the UK would stay neutral.

If Germany were sensible (whidh I know approaches asb but stil They would ahve stood defenscive in the West whilst France bled appallingly trying to implement Plan 17

They take a little Russian territory and offer Peace terms basically not being to greedy but accepting Austrian domination of Serbia.

War over in less than 12 months
 

Glenn239

Danth said:
What of the Germans never invaded Belgium...

Thoughts:

Gb doesn't enter the war
Ottoman empire doesn't enter the war
Germany and France reach a stalemate very quickly both on land and at sea
Russia falls to Germany latter than OTL as the ottomans keep the straights open
France and Germany continue to fight
In early 1919 a peace treaty is signed
Click to expand...

1. If Germany does not invade Belgium than France must, or else watch helplessly as Germany and Austria dismembers Russia. When France invades Belgium, British interests become engaged and Britain must enter the war on the side of France.

2. If Britain somehow remains neutral, the Ottomans will take their dreadnoughts then 'pile on' Russia. As it becomes increasingly clear Russia is losing, other bordering nations (Japan, Rumania, perhaps even Sweden) will also join the feeding frenzy. Italy, seeing which way the wind is blowing, will declare war on France and Russia in order to gain something.

3. While a stalemate on land along the French border is guaranteed because Belgium is neutral, there is no possibility of a stalemate at sea. The German navy and expeditionary army forces will dismember the French Empire. I would also hazard a guess that the predatory Japanese Empire would use the opportunity to annex portions of the French Far Eastern Empire.

4. There is little chance of the Ottomans doing anything but finishing off the Russians as an ally of Germany. Contrary to what another poster stated, the Ottoman objective in 1914 was not territorial gain, it was to normalize the relations of the empire with the rest of the world. It was concluded only Germany was prepared to treat the Ottomans equally, therefore, it was with Germany that the Porte was determined to win or lose.

5. It is practically inconcievable that France would continue to fight as it became clear the war was lost, nor would Britain ever tolerate Germany continuing the war against France after Paris had signalled its intention to throw in the towel.

6. I doubt Britain could remain neutral in a Franco-German war for five years. Under the conditions of British neutrality, I can't see the war lasting past 1915, since by the end of 1914 Russia will be defeated and France will be looking to exit, and Britain will be anxious to mediate a settlement.
 

pompejus

Derek Jackson said:
Well there were divisions in otl at the highest level about Britain going to war. I think the UK would stay neutral.
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If the British remain neutral, they most certainly remain pro-French neutral. Supplying them with food, weapons, etc. The Germans can not accept that and will force the British to enter the war by targeting British supply ships bound for France.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
pompejus said:
If the British remain neutral, they most certainly remain pro-French neutral. Supplying them with food, weapons, etc. The Germans can not accept that and will force the British to enter the war by targeting British supply ships bound for France.
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Errr, says who? Why can't they accept that?
 
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