WI: Ngô Diệm ousted but Lives?

The view from the United States seems to have been that Diệm was a bumbler who was embarrassing the United States, alienating his own people through his abuse and governing through patronage, and consistently not winning the war despite his pledges. This is why, when there were reports of the ARVN generals speaking of coup (not unprecedented, since there were discussions of coups beforehand that never took place, and attempts before that took place and failed), the US pledged to them that it would still support South Vietnam whether or not the coup took place. It did take place.

However, the execution of Diệm and his brother came as a surprise to the United States, and was the worst case scenario as it was hoping he would simply be removed from the government and exiled, and not assassinated. The people involved in the coup had also promised Diệm, as the coup was underway, that if he surrendered they'd send him into exile. Instead, he fled his palace only to be caught up to later. He was given the same pledge and surrendered, but in custody both he and his brother were executed.

But what if, like many leaders before and since, Diệm had indeed gone into exile, whether by the generals keeping their word (which they may have if he surrendered at the palace and saved them that embarrassment) or he managing to somehow escape?

He likely flees along with at least some of the treasury and close family/supporters to South of France and lives out the rest of his years there. Probably doesn't change much and his time in active politics would be finished, as he would have no backers or international support. If he was living comfortably, then he might be content in giving interviews and maybe once Saigon falls (barring butterflies) being at best maybe a focal point for the catholic Vietnamese dispora, but I doubt it.

I frankly don't know enough about that detail to say, but would the area he went be France or are there any other possible places to flee to?

Emperor Norton I said:

However, the execution of Diệm and his brother came as a surprise to the United States, and was the worst case scenario as it was hoping he would simply be removed from the government and exiled, and not assassinated.

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Audio. Transcript. The Kennedy Adminstration knew what they were doing when they told the generals to remove the universally-loathed Diệm.

Emperor Norton I said:

The people involved in the coup had also promised Diệm, as the coup was underway, that if he surrendered they'd send him into exile. Instead, he fled his palace only to be caught up to later. He was given the same pledge and surrendered, but in custody both he and his brother were executed.

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Then clearly Diệm knew what the generals had in mind. And he didn't "surrender" so much as he was captured while going to Church that second time. Memoirs from the leader of the taskforce that apprehended Diệm confirm that he knew that they were planning on murdering the man.

Emperor Norton I said:

But what if, like many leaders before and since, Diệm had indeed gone into exile, whether by the generals keeping their word (which they may have if he surrendered at the palace and saved them that embarrassment) or he managing to somehow escape?

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Diệm was probably as hated (if not moreso) as the Shah of Iran by 1979. As Batista in 1958. The only people who continually supported him were far-right Catholics; he had managed to alienate the anti-communist community by his bumbling, and his persecution of Vietnam's Buddhist community caused a sectarian war within South Vietnam; his noxious sister-in-law did his regime no favors, nor did his drug-running brother. The South Vietnamese military--fractured as it always was--could all at least agree that this ghastly man had to die for his crimes.

Emperor Norton I said:

I frankly don't know enough about that detail to say, but would the area he went be France or are there any other possible places to flee to?

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Probably stick to the Rome-France track that Madame Nho ran OTL.

Wolfpaw said:

Audio. Transcript. The Kennedy Adminstration knew what they were doing when they told the generals to remove the universally-loathed Diệm.

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I don't know if you can interpret that as a statement of "we all decided to have the CIA go ahead and (order the) murder Diem" so much as "we're the ones who let the coup go ahead, and he got killed, so we did it" with the additional thought onto that being that the murder was not planned, but was a result of what the generals decided to go ahead and do, but because the US had allowed the coup to go forward and coups are unpredictable, and Diem was indeed killed, the administration was culpable and it was their fault. It's result versus intention. If you have a part in something, it doesn't matter if it turned out as intended, and the result, whatever it may be, is your culpability. Certainly Kennedy's reaction does not seem to be that of a man who expected and/or hoped Diem would be killed, nor ordered the killing, as he was surprised and shaken. McNamara, when recounting the incident in "Fog of War" of the news coming into the White House that Diem had been killed certainly made it seem like they were surprised that the generals had actually killed Diem (admittedly, there may be a haze of saving one's behind via history, though with Kennedy's reaction, I don't believe it to be the case here).

Then clearly Diệm knew what the generals had in mind. And he didn't "surrender" so much as he was captured while going to Church that second time. Memoirs from the leader of the taskforce that apprehended Diệm confirm that he knew that they were planning on murdering the man.

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Diem appears to certainly have had a heavy fear that they may have been intending to kill him given that he ran, which turned out to be the case. Whether he did know for sure from finding out some information from someone or whatever it may have been, I'd need to see the memoir (I'm not disputing you, I just haven't seen it). If you're a leader of a nation where military men are staging a coup and trying to get you to surrender yourself to them, you will most certainly fear for your safety and possibly, as with Diem and many other leaders, try to flee (most likely try to flee as it's better to be safe then sorry). As was a criticism within the Kennedy administration of the idea to permit the coup, coups are unpredictable and can result in a leader being killed.

Diệm was probably as hated (if not moreso) as the Shah of Iran by 1979. As Batista in 1958. The only people who continually supported him were far-right Catholics; he had managed to alienate the anti-communist community by his bumbling, and his persecution of Vietnam's Buddhist community caused a sectarian war within South Vietnam; his noxious sister-in-law did his regime no favors, nor did his drug-running brother. The South Vietnamese military--fractured as it always was--could all at least agree that this ghastly man had to die for his crimes.

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I most certainly agree on every point of Diem being hated and being a terrible, terrible man. But I wouldn't agree with the idea that he couldn't have gone into exile and lived in exile.

Let's say in this scenario the generals have an element of political nous about them. Rather than coming to power via an extra judicial killing (never a good look), they place Mr Diem, his brother and Madame Nhu on trial.

The litany of their crimes are read out, catalogued in full, and the judge offers them a choice death or exile abroad. They are allowed to take a percentage of their earnings lets say 15% leaving 70 % to be donated to the orphans of the war (insert great political point scoring here) and 15% to be absorbed in administrative costs.

If this is achieved the plotters strengthen their reputation as a rule of law government , while denigrating Diem's record - both good outcomes for them. Alternatively if you want this to happen Mr Diem has to leave power during the 1960 coup and not later.