Fear Not the Revolution, Habibi: A Middle East Timeline

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Part One: A Coup in Syria​


25 January 1969

Hafez al-Assad, Minister of Defense of the Syrian Arab Republic, checked his watch. It was 10:31. He had been waiting for a meeting with his ally and friend Mustafa Tlass, the Army Chief of Staff. Tlass, as per usual, was late.

“The idiot can barely lace his boots himself, of course he’s fucking late,” grumbled Hafez to himself. Hafez shifted in his leather armchair. While protocol normally demanded that meetings be held at the Ministry of Defense or the army’s headquarters, he preferred to meet in his home; as one of the most powerful men in Syria, he did as he pleased, protocol be damned. The only one who could make him stand at attention still, at least in public, was Jadid; the bastard had a stare that could melt glass, and having the Soviet ambassador in his pocket couldn’t hurt.

“Well, not for long,” murmured Hafez. He then chuckled to himself. He met at his home for another reason. The Ministry of Defense was undoubtedly bugged as far as Jadid and his Soviet patrons could manage, while his home was discreetly swept for the tiny microphones every other day. Any sensitive topics needed to be discussed away from prying eyes and ears.

Hafez checked his watch again. It was 10:34 now. Tlass was almost half an hour late. Hafez stretched and rose from his seat, feeling a small sense of regret. Maybe Tlass wasn’t the man for the job. Hafez wandered from his office, with its library of books, beaten leather armchairs and smell of tobacco. Entering his den, he was greeting with screaming.

Abbi!!” cried a pair of small voices. Hafez al-Assad felt the impact of his two sons, like hurtling shells, crash into his legs. Bending down, Hafez scooped them up, one in each arm. Pulling them tightly, he asked, “Bassel, Bashar, how are you?”

“Good!!” they screeched in unison. Putting his two sons down, Hafez looked at them. Already, Bashar was nearing his brother’s height, even though Bassel was more than a full two years older. Bassel made up for it in presence though. Bashar was as thin as a string bean with ears that stuck out. He was quite shy, except with his close family, where he was as rambunctious as anyone. Bassel, on the other hand, already had a fire in him; as much fire as a six year old could show, but fire nonetheless. He had been a difficult child as a boy, made doubly difficult as he was the Assads’ first.

“What are you doing today, my suns?” asked Hafez, standing up, careful to avoid the train set scattered the floor.

Ummu says we have to go to mosque with her, and then to grandmother’s house,” said Bassel, tugging at his tiny engineer’s hat. “I don’t want to go though, abbi. Can we spend the day with you?”

“I’m sorry, my suns. I have to meet with General Tlass. He and I have some very important things to discuss. I’ll tell you what though. If you go with your mother, and you finish all your homework, Bassel, I will take both of you and Bushra for ice cream.”

Bashar’s face lit up. He loved ice cream. “Yay abbi!! Thank you!! Will you come play with us now?”

“I’m sorry Bashar, I’m busy.” Hafez patted his two boys on the head, and, despite their loud protestations, sauntered down the stairs into the kitchen. He was a bit hungry. Grabbing some fresh hummus and pita, he nodded to Fatima, one of the house’s maids. Striding out of the kitchen, he heard several loud raps from the front door. Fatima scurried past him to open up. Hearing the great wooden door swing open, followed by yelling by a few loud, rough voices, Hafez hurried towards the entrance. He then stopped dead in his tracks. A young, bearded soldier was pointing a rifle barrel straight at his midsection. The man in charge of the group, a captain by the badge on his chest, turned to him, a wide smile on his face.

“General Hafez al-Assad. You are under arrest, in the name of the Syrian Arab Republic. Now, we can do this peacefully, and no one, not even you, will be hurt. Or, the paper tomorrow can read that the traitor Hafez al-Assad was shot while resisting arrest, along with his two young sons, who he used as human shields to protect himself. Now, what is it going to be?” The grinning captain twitched his head forward, and two soldiers moved to grab him.

Hafez squirmed in their beefy arms as they cuffed his hands. He turned to Fatima, who leaned against the wall with shock on her face. He said, quietly, “Tell Aniseh where I’ve gone, and tell no one else. She will know what to do.” A black bag was pulled over his head, and a punch delivered to the back of his skull. Then, Hafez saw darkness.



“In Syria, the alliance of military officers and their Ba’ath Party allies soon fell apart over disagreements over state policy and the division of the spoils of power. By the end of 1966, intra-Ba’ath politics in Syria settled into a contest between two powerful factions. The first faction, led by Salah Jadid, espoused an authoritarian socialist system domestically, a close alliance with the Soviet Union, and intense financial and military support for a Palestinian war of national liberation against Israel. Jadid had resigned his position as army chief of staff in 1965, moving on to direct the Ba’ath regional party bureaucracy from his position as assistant general secretary of the Syrian Ba'ath with the aid of many like-minded civilians. The second faction was led by Defence Minister Hafez al-Assad, who was more concerned with results than with doctrine in domestic affairs. Al-Assad, worried by the complete rout of Syrian forces by Israel in June 1967, pushed primarily for a pragmatic foreign policy, internal economic reforms and a degree of political liberalization, plus a non-confrontational attitude towards Israel.

Having almost been removed from his position following the Syrian defeat, Hafez al-Assad believed that if he were to bear responsibility for such matters, he should have corresponding authority within the military. Through subsequent control of military postings and promotions, he moved into an almost impregnable position. Almost. Hafez al-Assad, through rigorous selection of officers for loyalty to him as opposed to competence, had alienated members of the military establishment, mainly those who had been shunted aside in favour of his cronies. Salah Jadid exploited this to his advantage. On the 25 of January, 1969, Hafez al-Assad, along with army chief of staff General Mustafa Tlass and a dozen of his closest confederates, were arrested and taken to the notorious Mezzeh Prison in western Damascus…”


James J. Devlin. The Ba’ath Party in Syria: Ascent, Transformation and Decline. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2009. Print


***


This is a TL I have been contemplating writing for a long time. While I am not the most learned scholar on the modern Middle East, it it one of the areas of history I am most fascinated by. With today's events in the Arab Spring, the politics of the modern Middle East are something that might interest everyone.Please criticize as ruthlessly as you like, and point me in a better direction if you can. I hope you all like it!

PS: Updates will be quite infrequent; as a university student at the only school in Canada with substantial grade deflation, plus an undying wish to both go to law school and have a social life, this TL will unfortunately take the back seat at times.
 
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Yonatan

Banned
OK. I am officially intrigued. you dont get many Syrian TL's around here.

Cant wait to see TTL's 1970's...
 
Syria, yay! Subscribed.

And I know you know it's Hafez al-Assad.

Looking forward to Black September...
 
OK. I am officially intrigued. you dont get many Syrian TL's around here.

Cant wait to see TTL's 1970's...

I have some things planned, but I will have to do research, and let history take its course so to speak :p

Syria, yay! Subscribed.

And I know you know it's Hafez al-Assad.

Looking forward to Black September...

Oh I know. There is good in every person though, and from what I've read he was a committed family man and a good father. I thought it would be interesting to juxtapose who he was in OTL and who he might be in an ATL where he never gets a chance to be that monster.

Oh, and Black September is going to be interesting. Vewwwwy interesting.
 
Another quick update, possibly the last one before exams...

To most eyes, little differentiates the current Syrian regime, under President Salah Jadid from the procession of leaders that ruled Syria from independence in 1949. Yet, Jadid’s Syria features a striking mix of change and continuity. On one hand, since the rise and consolidation of the Ba’ath Party, the country has witness almost a complete overhaul of its economic and political order, along a distorted, quasi-Soviet model. The country’s elites have become far more homogenous than before, although paradoxically, entrance to the ranks of the elite has become more accessible to members of the general population. The country’s economy, through state dominance and central planning, has become far more egalitarian, with the Ba’ath Party’s goals of social justice paramount. Basic services like healthcare, education have become universally accessible, with Syria maintaining relatively high quality of life measurements

Despite this increasing egalitarianism, this has clearly not provided for the institutionalization of any sort of political liberalization, peaceful competition among different political formations for supreme power, or effective accountability of government to popular preferences or wishes. While more avenues for social advancement exist in the new Syria, the Party and the state all tightly control them all. As well, Syria has seen the institutionalization of state violence against the Syrian population to an extent that clearly differentiates in from any other predecessor regime. One only needs to remember “Efrin” to imagine the carnage inflicted on Syrians by their government.

Thus, how can the “New Order” of Salah Jadid and the Ba’ath Party be explained within the context of the modern Arab world? This paper will argue that, contrary to explanations of Syrian exceptionalism and historical determinism, it has been the conscious choices of the Syrian elite that has shaped the political system of the Arab world’s outlier, the Syrian Arab Republic…

Marcus Erdle. Salah Jadid’s “New Order”: A Case Study of Arab Authoritarian Socialism. Journal of Arab Studies. Vol. 46, No. 4 (1987). Print.
 
Aaaaand here is something very depressing

30 January 1969

Hafez was alive. His head throbbed, and being awake with a black bag on his head provided only marginally more vision than unconsciousness, but he was still breathing. Shifting in his chair, he felt his restraints; tight cords lashing his ankles and torso to the uncomfortable metal chair, and his hands cuffed behind his back, slowly wrenching his shoulders from their sockets.

He had been tortured, on and off, for several days. As soon as he had arrived, he had been stripped of his clothing and pushed into a cold room. Here, several brutish young men proceeded to force him to lie flat on his stomach, with his feet in the air. His exposed soles were then clinically lashed with an electric cable, while soldiers kicked him in the head repeatedly with steel-toed boots. As he was about to pass out, cold water was thrown on his feet and head, and he was told to stand and run in place. This went on for what seemed like forever. After fainting for a third time, he was hauled to his feet and marched to his cell. The tiny room had no room to lie down or fully stand, and was black once the door closed. The cell was ripe with mold, and stank of shit and vomit and fear. In other words, exactly where Hafez had sent many of those unfortunate enough to fall on his bad side without a powerful patron. [1]

Hafez trembled involuntarily. The previous day, the guards had subjected him to the “tire treatment”, forcing his head and legs through a tire, then beating the soles of his feet, his legs, his head and his genitals with leather cords. He had fainted from blood loss and had been placed in a slightly larger cell, with the mold scraped away, a bottle of water, and a blanket in order to recover for the next day’s treatment. At that point he had realized that they had something special in store for him; time spent in one of Mezzeh’s “paradise cells” was only for those who needed to be kept alive.

Footsteps. Hushed mutterings followed them; Hafez could make out the words of one of his torturers, the burly, bearded man who stood off to the side as the others beat him within an inch of his life. The other voice was oddly familiar, but no, it couldn’t be-

“Hafez, how nice to see you! You look well,” said Salah Jadid, the Assistant Secretary of the Syrian Regional Command of the Ba’ath Party, and the strongman of Syria.

The bag was ripped unceremoniously from Hafez’s head. Jadid’s sharp features grinned back at him, a mocking smile stretched across his face. “Are the accommodations to your liking? I know you designed them yourself.”

Hafez stared at Jadid, who leaned closer. “I’m sorry, my friend, can I-“ started Jadid, who was interrupted by a globule of spit that landed directly on his long, narrow nose. Wiping it off, Jadid’s grin faded.

“Do you really think that I couldn’t rape your wife and daughter, and slit your sons’ throats in front of you, then kill you, if I wanted? These men follow me, and me only. You really don’t know who you are anymore, do you, Hafez. Because right now, you aren’t anyone.” Jadid stood, and slapped Hafez in the face, his gloved hand leaving a bright red mark.

“Now, listen closely. You have two options. Your first option is to give me a complete list of your supporters, their standing orders in case of your arrest, and their hardware outlays. Then, you will go on state television and confess your traitorous nature to the nation, admitting to selling state secrets to Israel and the Americans. Then, you will be executed, as a traitor deserves. In exchange, I will promise you that your family and your brother’s family will be allowed to leave for exile in a country of their choice, without being harmed. Your second option is to refuse this generous offer. I think you know what is in store for you and your children if you take the second option.”

Hafez’s head spun. His parched throat had barely managed to work up the spittle to hit the bastard’s face. Now, he could hardly speak.

Jadid smiled horribly. "Think on it, my friend. Come, Amir, untie his hands, get him a drink of water and some bread, and bring him a pen and paper, if he wants."

The bounds came undone, and Hafez rubbed his wrists. Burying his head in his hands, General Hafez al-Assad did something he had not done since becoming a man. He cried.

***

[1] OOC: All of the torture described in this scene is based on a description of the torture suffered by Abdullah Almalki, a Syrian-Canadian who was detained by the Syrian regime based on false accusations of terrorism links by CSIS. He spoke at my school recounting his story.
 
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With the arrest of Hafez al-Assad, the Syrian regime entered a brief but intense period of turmoil. Several military units under the command of Assad loyalists, particularly large parts of the Air Force, mobilized to face the threat. Notably absent from this was the special internal security force, meant to protect the Ba’ath Party, which had been under the command of Assad’s brother Rifaat. This force had, in the hours following the arrest of Assad and General Tlass, been confined to their barracks. Jadid, in defence of his regime, mobilized civilian militias of the Ba’ath Party’s membership, along with loyalist army units, quckly seizing radio and television stations, newspapers, and major pieces of public infrastructure. Elite infantry forces, which had been a bastion of hostility towards Assad due to his neglect of them in favour of the Air Force, firmly supported Jadid. So did the PLO, which marshaled hundreds of fighters onto the street. Yet, despite Jadid’s clear advantage on the street, along with the disorganization of the opposition, it looked as though civil war could break out at any moment.

Then, a surprise.


James J. Devlin. The Ba’ath Party in Syria: Ascent, Transformation and Decline. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2009. Print


Yesterday, former Syrian Minister of Defence Hafez al-Assad confessed on Syrian state television and radio to “betraying his nation”. Al-Assad, along with Army Chief of Staff Mustafa Tlass and a number of other regime figures have been accused of selling state secrets to Israel, along with purposely sabotaging military operations during the recent Arab-Israeli War of June 1967. Syrian President Nureddin al-Atassi denounced al-Assad, calling for immediate trials for the accused men. He also called for the Syrian state to “cleanse the nation of Zionists, enemies, and traitors to the undying cause of Arab unity and progress”.
(AP) Associated Press—1 February 1969


“At the first couple meetings, no one knew what to make of what was happening in Syria, and honestly, none of us really cared. One more tinpot Arab despot in an army uniform was crushing his competition; after what we had seen in Syria before, this was old hat. The place seemed to go through a new government every week. One of our Mideast guys though, an Agency lifer, was real quiet. He had spent some time in the region, spoke a bit of Arabic, the works. He stayed quiet, but he seemed real worried. He wouldn’t tell me anything in the general meeting; we were all too…”

“Dismissive?”

“Yeah, that’s the word. Dismissive. We weren’t paying attention. This guy, he pulled me aside later. He told me that he had a bad feeling about this. I gave him a chance to make his case. Boy, did he convince me that Jadid was real trouble. Problem was, it wasn’t me who needed convincing.”
Former CIA case officer Howard Branton, interviewed in Blind Watchmen, a documentary by Albert Gore Jr.


“…You have got to be fucking kidding me.”
The first reaction of recently appointed National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, after receiving a classified briefing on the situation in Syria.
 
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I'm loving this TL. You now have a faithful fan, to join the ranks of me that will surely follow. :) Though, I'm not very knowledgeable of this region at this time. (I love the Crusades and Ottomans for example, but the Cold War? Nah) So excuse any ignorance. But will Arab Pan-Nationalism play a bigger role, perhaps In the form of communism, ITTL?
 
I'm loving this TL. You now have a faithful fan, to join the ranks of me that will surely follow. :) Though, I'm not very knowledgeable of this region at this time. (I love the Crusades and Ottomans for example, but the Cold War? Nah) So excuse any ignorance. But will Arab Pan-Nationalism play a bigger role, perhaps In the form of communism, ITTL?

Thanks, I'm trying to make this good. I have such great exemplars though. Something about standing on the shoulders of giants...

As for Pan-Arabism, we shall see. As of this moment, I'm actually saying no. Pan-Arabism as policy tended to be little more than a quest for Egyptian or Iraqi hegemony. Things could easily change though.
 
Given the history excerpts, I imagine Jadid is going to be causing some trouble in the future.

I've never seen a Syrian TL before, especially with this degree of detail. Keep up the good work.
 
February-May 1969

After Hafez al-Assad’s confession, tensions within the Syrian establishment began to dissipate, with Salah Jadid as the clear winner. Jadid quickly moved to consolidate control. He appointed his close allies, Abd al-Karim al-Jundi, head of the National Security Bureau, to the position of army chief of staff, and former Prime Minister Yousuf Zouayyen to defence minister, while Nureddin al-Atasi remained president. Jadid, who had previously remained only the assistant secretary of the Syrian Ba’ath Party, promoted himself to the office of prime minister, as well as the secretary-general of the Syrian Ba’ath Regional Command. Assad loyalists were rounded up and purged, with several hundred murders and disappearances from February to May 1969, as well as thousands of forced retirements and expulsions from Syria. Members of other political movements, such as Nasserists, were persecuted as well, although the Communist Party was conspicuously absent from these purges.

At the same time as repressing his domestic opponents in what became known as the “Months of Lead”, Jadid reached out on the international stage. His first move was towards Iraq. Under the rule of its own branch of the Ba’ath Party, the Iraqi government had previously been quite hostile to Jadid and the Syrian Ba'athists, who had expelled many members of the Syrian Ba’ath in 1966 following a coup d’état. These members had found asylum in Iraq, which continued to recognize Ba’ath Party founder Michel ‘Aflaq as legitimate leader of the National (pan-Arab) Ba’ath Party. Jadid sent Foreign Minister Ibrahim Makhous to negotiate with the President of Iraq, Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr. Makhous was coolly rebuffed by al-Bakr, and while he managed to gain tacit recognition of the legitimacy of Jadid’s rule in Syria, he achieved little else.


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Prime Minister Salah Jadid

His next move had more success. During the Months of Lead, Jadid relied heavily on his close alliance with the Palestinian Liberation Army (PLA), which provided paramilitaries and mobilization of public support. On 17 March, Jadid called for a conference of the Palestinian militant leadership to be held in Damascus under his auspices, to form a more united front. Jadid also announced the creation of a “Palestinian Brigade” of the Syrian military, which would both institutionalize the alliance between the Syrian regime and the Palestinians, as well as providing training and equipment to the Palestinians, especially otherwise conspicuous kit like heavy anti-aircraft weapons, tanks, artillery, and even fighter planes. This brought the PLA, especially Yasser Arafat’s Fatah faction, firmly onto the side of the Syrian regime.

With power now secure, Jadid made his next move. On 2 May 1969, Salah Jadid announced the end of a “transitional period” and the beginnings of a “New Order” in Syria…


James J. Devlin. The Ba’ath Party in Syria: Ascent, Transformation and Decline. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2009. Print


“Secretary of State William P. Rogers today expressed increasing concern with recent developments in Syria, following Syrian Prime Minister and strongman Salah Jadid’s announcement of the establishment of a “New Order” yesterday. The Soviet-leaning regime of Syria, according to Middle East experts, has recently undergone an extended period of internal turmoil following the stunning arrest of Syrian Defence Minister Hafez al-Assad on charges of treason. The Syrian government’s new policies include the formal abolition of all political parties aside from the ruling Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the confiscations of large tracts of private land, and the nationalization of a number of Syrian companies. Dan Bloom reports from Washington D.C…”
—Dan Rather, CBS News, 3 May 1969
 
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On 17 March, Jadid called for a conference of the Palestinian militant leadership to be held in Damascus under his auspices, to form a more united front. Jadid also announced the creation of a “Palestinian Brigade” of the Syrian military, which would both institutionalize the alliance between the Syrian regime and the Palestinians, as well as providing training and equipment to the Palestinians, especially otherwise conspicuous kit like heavy anti-aircraft weapons, tanks, artillery, and even fighter planes. This brought the PLA, especially Yasser Arafat’s Fatah faction, firmly onto the side of the Syrian regime.

Damn, that's going to set the cat among the pigeons. I could see this going several possible ways. If Black September happens, then this hardware might be enough for the Palestinians to take over Jordan, making it a Fatah state and a de facto Syrian puppet. This would mean no Palestinian militant presence in Lebanon - at least not yet - and might forestall the Lebanese civil war (unless, of course, Jadid decides to stir things up for reasons of his own).

Alternatively, if the Palestinians still lose Black September - possibly due to indirect Israeli involvement on the Hashemite side? - then they'll be able to consolidate even more power in southern Lebanon than in OTL. "Fatahland" was the OTL Palestinians' one experience as an occupying power, and they handled it about as well as Israel has done. I don't expect them to do any better in TTL, so if they do take over that region, I'd expect both a devolution into civil war in Lebanon and a substantially broader northern front in the next Arab-Israeli war.

The third possibility is that the Palestinians launch Black September, they overrun Amman, and Israel then intervenes directly on the Hashemite side, triggering the next regional war right then and there. (As a wild card, Israel could give some under-the-table help to the Palestinian side in return for concessions later, but the Palestinians would need Israeli help much less in TTL than in OTL, and I don't see Arafat making such a deal at that point.)

In any event, regardless of what happens in the immediate term, I'd expect that Fatah will become Jadid's Foreign Legion, and that it will be involved in any extraterritorial adventures that Jadid's Syria might undertake during the later 1970s.
 
Oh definitely. Watching events up north, I would definitely see Amman getting jittery.

They will, but (a) as Julius Vogel said, they don't have much time before things start popping, and (b) they'll worry that any premature move will bring Jadid down on them like a ton of bricks. I'm guessing that they'll dither in order to avoid triggering Syrian intervention, and that they may or may not still be dithering when they run out of time.

I wonder, though, if King Abdullah's jitters might drive him into Israel's arms, somewhat like what happened to the Lebanese Maronites in OTL a little later.
 
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