Indo Euriopean Manchuria+Korea
- Thread starter Berus
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Having reduced the strength of the serf institution earlier, a more powerful Russian Empire waged war until it occupied the Korean Peninsua and Manchuria. Having vassalised Eastern Europe, the rise of a National Socialist-type leader advocating the death of non-Slavs (making exceptions for Germans and such for the time being) unleashed plagues and all kinds of fiery death on its Asian subjects, until they had been reduced to minorities and it was able to settle the region with Russians.
Well, there were Indo-European tribes in the Tarim Basin in Northeast China, as well as a bit further east (Gansu region). There have been some suggestions that the Shang dynasty actually had an Indo-European ruling class as well, but this was pretty quickly subsumed into China (as with all foreign ruling classes) if this was the case.
I do not believe that language replacement across the area, provided the Aryan migrations happened differently, would have been impossible. After all, it happened in India. That said, it looks as though the actual genetic influence of the Aryan invasions in India was comparably minor when compared to the linguistic influence, and most of the "European" features in India came with an earlier migration (Dravidian?) which brought agriculture to the subcontinent.
For analogous reasons, once endemic agriculture developed in Northern China, I think the development of a genetically "European" people in the area was impossible. The most you could get is a Tocharian-speaking region were the people were at most 10%-20% European extraction.
I do not believe that language replacement across the area, provided the Aryan migrations happened differently, would have been impossible. After all, it happened in India. That said, it looks as though the actual genetic influence of the Aryan invasions in India was comparably minor when compared to the linguistic influence, and most of the "European" features in India came with an earlier migration (Dravidian?) which brought agriculture to the subcontinent.
For analogous reasons, once endemic agriculture developed in Northern China, I think the development of a genetically "European" people in the area was impossible. The most you could get is a Tocharian-speaking region were the people were at most 10%-20% European extraction.
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It's probably not going to happen.
The PoD is relatively early, but the tribes/groups would first have to subjugate the numerous Central Asian tribes, as I honestly don't see how they could go through Tibet and/or China Proper. Considering that there were several waves of Central Asians who actually migrated west to the border between Europe and Asia for centuries, successfully doing so from the other direction would be almost impossible. If they somehow managed to take a significant portion of Central Asia within a few centuries, they would have to eventually face Goguryeo, which had allied with or vassalized the tribes/states in Central and Northeast Asia, not to mention that it had repulsed the Sui and Tang for 70 years. Later incursions would require taking over both Balhae and Silla, and considering that a Silla-Tang alliance was unable to make any gains against Balhae, I honestly don't see how one, let alone two, would be successfully taken over by nomadic tribes before 900.
Attempting to head into Manchuria after 1000 might be possible if the tribes are disorganized, but taking Korea would be essentially ASB. The Khitan attempted to invade Goryeo three times in the late 10th-early 11th centuries with about 200,000 troops, but came nowhere close to overrunning the peninsula. Later, not only did Goryeo resist the Mongols for 40 years and seven expeditions, but the population actually decreased from 8-10 million to 5-6 million, suggesting that the invaders would give up long before the population was reduced to virtually nothing. You also have to realize that out of all of the states that surrendered to the Mongols, only Goryeo was allowed to retain its monarch, suggesting that even the conquerors were satisfied with leaving the state as a vassal, although it had actively resisted being taken over. After 1500, it would be a nightmare for the Russians to transport troops and supplies across Siberia due to logistics, which was the main reason why it suffered defeats against the Qing and Joseon, and forced them to maintain more definite borders until they were pushed further south around the mid-19th century.
The PoD is relatively early, but the tribes/groups would first have to subjugate the numerous Central Asian tribes, as I honestly don't see how they could go through Tibet and/or China Proper. Considering that there were several waves of Central Asians who actually migrated west to the border between Europe and Asia for centuries, successfully doing so from the other direction would be almost impossible. If they somehow managed to take a significant portion of Central Asia within a few centuries, they would have to eventually face Goguryeo, which had allied with or vassalized the tribes/states in Central and Northeast Asia, not to mention that it had repulsed the Sui and Tang for 70 years. Later incursions would require taking over both Balhae and Silla, and considering that a Silla-Tang alliance was unable to make any gains against Balhae, I honestly don't see how one, let alone two, would be successfully taken over by nomadic tribes before 900.
Attempting to head into Manchuria after 1000 might be possible if the tribes are disorganized, but taking Korea would be essentially ASB. The Khitan attempted to invade Goryeo three times in the late 10th-early 11th centuries with about 200,000 troops, but came nowhere close to overrunning the peninsula. Later, not only did Goryeo resist the Mongols for 40 years and seven expeditions, but the population actually decreased from 8-10 million to 5-6 million, suggesting that the invaders would give up long before the population was reduced to virtually nothing. You also have to realize that out of all of the states that surrendered to the Mongols, only Goryeo was allowed to retain its monarch, suggesting that even the conquerors were satisfied with leaving the state as a vassal, although it had actively resisted being taken over. After 1500, it would be a nightmare for the Russians to transport troops and supplies across Siberia due to logistics, which was the main reason why it suffered defeats against the Qing and Joseon, and forced them to maintain more definite borders until they were pushed further south around the mid-19th century.
My bad, I read it as AFTER 100 AD. OK, let me think, I'll contribute properly in a little while.
Map stored here, go look. Didn't want to mess up post by putting it here directly.
Good map to help out. Now, Wusun are an Iranian people fairly far east. Let's have a whack with them. They were nomads, perhaps there's a way they could have come to ascendance over the various other steppe people and eventually subjugated Korea, occupying it with their pale-skinned sons and daughters, grown in Korean wombs. This seems a decent option, I don't really see a POD this late in which simple migration could have replaced Koreans with Indo-Europeans. It would have to be an Indo-Iranian group, I can't really see the Slavs getting there, let alone anyone else.
Good map to help out. Now, Wusun are an Iranian people fairly far east. Let's have a whack with them. They were nomads, perhaps there's a way they could have come to ascendance over the various other steppe people and eventually subjugated Korea, occupying it with their pale-skinned sons and daughters, grown in Korean wombs. This seems a decent option, I don't really see a POD this late in which simple migration could have replaced Koreans with Indo-Europeans. It would have to be an Indo-Iranian group, I can't really see the Slavs getting there, let alone anyone else.
Considering that they were defeated early IOTL by the Xiongnu, and that the Xianbei took over Central Asia after the latter declined, I don't see how the Wusun could expand signficantly further east. Also, considering that the Xiongnu allied with Gojoseon, and that later Central Asian states, such as the Rouran, allied with Goguryeo, I honestly don't see why this group would attempt to attack Manchuria/Korea if they could just form a stable alliance against the state(s) in North China. Also, the Former/Later Yan, which were founded by Xianbei nomads, probably did not influence the Korean language at all, even though it sacked the capital, Hwando, at one point.
Fair play, I hadn't put a huge amount of thought into it. Any other candidates? I can't think of any myself.
I didn't see the 100 AD rule before. I think this is a bit too late.
The Xiongnu pushed the Yuezhi out of Gansu around 174 BC. This basically marks the beginning of the rise of East Eurasian groups to dominance in the steppes (as opposed to the earlier West Eurasian dominance), although it wasn't until later with groups like the Goturks that Central Asia proper was taken out of the West Eurasian sphere.
After this point, the best candidate would be the Tocaharians. Is it possible that they could stave off the Turkic invasions, and then migrate Eastward somehow and take over the region in question? Sure, after all, they did the same thing in India, where they became the Kushans. However, they'd pretty quickly lose ethnic cohesion as a foreign ruing class over such a well-established population base.
The Xiongnu pushed the Yuezhi out of Gansu around 174 BC. This basically marks the beginning of the rise of East Eurasian groups to dominance in the steppes (as opposed to the earlier West Eurasian dominance), although it wasn't until later with groups like the Goturks that Central Asia proper was taken out of the West Eurasian sphere.
After this point, the best candidate would be the Tocaharians. Is it possible that they could stave off the Turkic invasions, and then migrate Eastward somehow and take over the region in question? Sure, after all, they did the same thing in India, where they became the Kushans. However, they'd pretty quickly lose ethnic cohesion as a foreign ruing class over such a well-established population base.
That's exactly what I'm attempting to do in my TL (see sig).
Korean states dominated the Korean peninsula and Southern Manchuria from around 700/100 BC-926 AD, so that challenge itself was already fulfilled IOTL, given that Buyeo, Goguryeo, Baekje, Gaya, and Silla were closely related in terms of the culture, language, and ethnicity, based on the evidence from Chinese texts, along with the Samguk Sagi and Yusa. The biggest issue, however, is politically unifying all of the states, which never occurred as Goguryeo was content with leaving the southern states as vassals from around 396-551, and Silla never had the capability to take over most of Goguryeo's possessions, as it would have overextended itself. However, if Goguryeo completely absorbed the rest of the southern states due to butterflies, as I'm planning to do in my TL, then the dynasty that will succeed it will probably also retain most of Southern Manchuria east of the Liao River and south of the Songhua, along with the entire Korean peninsula.
Also, in terms of the OP, the various Korean states were heavily influenced by China for about 2,000 years, but even though Sino-Korean words make up about 30-60% of the Korean language today, the grammar still remains fundamentally different from Chinese. In other words, it will be virtually ASB for the core components of the Korean language to be drastically different from that of OTL unless the population was virtually eradicated, and that would be essentially impossible due to the fact that the various Korean states repelled invasions from 13 different states, essentially remaining independent for more than two thousand years.
Just by preventing the eruption of Baekdu you could keep the Koreans in control of Manchuria. The only other way would have a united Korean state that had a large enough population base outside of the Baekdu blast and fall out (the real issue) radius that they can still hold onto Manchuria.
By the way Democracy101 I liked your timeline, and your timeline by having Goguryeo unite all of the Korean kingdoms would definitely accomplish the later.
In this timeline you could even have the eruption of Baekdu bring down a Tocaharian run state, and have the Southern Korean kingdom (Silla like nation) move in to help thier northern brothers (who would most likely have been the underclass in a Tocaharian run state). The key is how to get the Koreans to beat the Khitans and/or hold them off in Manchuria.
Now if the goal is to keep the Tocaharian state around then again you need to keep Baekdu from erupting cause the fallout wipes out crops in inner Manchuria and will fall on all your major poplations centers not located on the Liaodong Peninsula. This is going cause too much destruction, so any tribe coming out of Mongolia (like the Khitans) are going to run you over.
By the way Democracy101 I liked your timeline, and your timeline by having Goguryeo unite all of the Korean kingdoms would definitely accomplish the later.
In this timeline you could even have the eruption of Baekdu bring down a Tocaharian run state, and have the Southern Korean kingdom (Silla like nation) move in to help thier northern brothers (who would most likely have been the underclass in a Tocaharian run state). The key is how to get the Koreans to beat the Khitans and/or hold them off in Manchuria.
Now if the goal is to keep the Tocaharian state around then again you need to keep Baekdu from erupting cause the fallout wipes out crops in inner Manchuria and will fall on all your major poplations centers not located on the Liaodong Peninsula. This is going cause too much destruction, so any tribe coming out of Mongolia (like the Khitans) are going to run you over.
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That's a reasonable PoD, but I think it would probably be stretching it if the mountain doesn't erupt within 50 years or so, as the buildup was probably significant for the incident to occur. A significant amount of the population, possibly around half, would be located south of what is now Pyongyang, so they could probably provide supplies for the displaced peoples. The coastal areas of Liaodong would also probably be generally unaffected, so that would also be a stable bulwark.
Thank you for the complement
The issue before that is getting the Tocaharians into Manchuria. The path would be blocked by numerous Xianbei/Khitan tribes from 300-1100, not to mention that the total Korean population would be around 10-15 million around 500-900, so the invaders would be heavily outnumbered. Assimilation into Korean culture would be more likely.
Well, I think that preventing the eruption from eventually occurring would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, as I stated above, and it would also probably be difficult for the Tocharians to keep control of the masses for more than two centuries, as ethnic strife would eventually occur.
There's a timeline around here somewhere where Alexander the Great is overthrown while in Afghanistan or India. He and his loyalists do this giant Volkswanderung across Asia, intermarrying with some horse tribes, and end up settling in Korea, where they kill off a lot of the native male population during the conquest.
Alexander dies in battle in Japan fighting pirates.
Alexander dies in battle in Japan fighting pirates.
Democracy101,
Though, you would lose Heaven Lake, it is not that hard to say the POD is Baekdu goes inert. Maybe there is some Earthquake after the previous major eruption that cause the crust to shift. This drains the Magma chamber.
I complete see and agree with you on the points about the Tocharians.
Though, you would lose Heaven Lake, it is not that hard to say the POD is Baekdu goes inert. Maybe there is some Earthquake after the previous major eruption that cause the crust to shift. This drains the Magma chamber.
I complete see and agree with you on the points about the Tocharians.
I haven't read this TL, so I don't know the details, but the scenario essentially looks ASB to me. Although the Xiongnu were first recorded in Chinese sources around 244 BC, its possible that a consolidated state, or several consolidated tribes, existed around 350-300 BC. Later, the Xiongnu eventually grew into a powerful empire which fought the Qin and Han continuously for more than two centuries. As a result, considering that Alexander never commanded more than 10,000 calvalry, and all of them would be dead or low on morale by the time he would come into contact with the Xiongnu, his army would almost certainly be decimated within a few weeks or months.
Even if he managed to hold out against the Central Asian tribes, it would be virtually impossible to cross the Pamir, Tarim Basin, and/or the Himalayas. These regions were some of the last to be settled in Asia due to their extremely inhospitable climates, and although Alexander managed to found Alexandria Eschate in the extreme northeast of his empire, he was forced to go further south, not east, because of the imposing geography. He would need to trek though thousands of miles of desert and/or mountains, and the tribes in the area would not take too kindly to a foreign army straggling by, so the soldiers would have to think about survival and holding out against various unknown hostile tribes before anything else. If anything else, Alexander's soldiers would desert him if he attempted to head further east.
The alternative would be settling down in Central Asia and gradually assimilating the natives around the area, although it's much more likely that the Macedonians would be assimilated instead due to their inferiority in numbers. However, even if Alexander dies when he is 400 or 500, this state would not make its way further west due to the Xiongnu, Xianbei, Turkic, Uighur, and Khitan tribes, who collectively dominated Central Asia for more than a thousand years. Even if he or his descendants manage to get past them somehow, he would have to confront either Goguryeo or Balhae, both of which dominated Southern Manchuria and the northern regions of the Korean Peninsula for more than 800 years from around 100-900. Considering that Goguryeo itself was also semi-nomadic, and its troops retreated east into the mountains after its capital was sacked twice, and reestablished itself soon afterward, the state from the west would find it virtually impossible to subjugate Manchuria, let alone Korea.
It looks like you know more about geological events than I do, so I'll take your word for it, although this just means that a unified "Korean" presence in Southern Manchuria would last, and that regardless of the eruption, even if the Tocharians somehow arrived in Manchuria, they would be unable to control it for more than two centuries.
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Democracy 101,
I cannot say I know more than you on geological events. Actually, I thought Baekdu was a Shield Volcano (I do not know why I thought that, it is kind of far from a plate boundary though). Anyway, it is a Stratovalcano, which is the same as Mount Vesuvius in Italy. So, you could just have more frequent smaller eruptions (like every 50 years instead of the roughly 100 year window it has now), this should prevent the massive eruption in the 10th century. As I said you will have no Heaven Lake cause it was formed because of the 10th century eruption. This also means Baekdu would be taller too.
I brought up Vesusvius cause it had a large eruption in 79 A.D., but only a bunch of smaller ones since then.
I cannot say I know more than you on geological events. Actually, I thought Baekdu was a Shield Volcano (I do not know why I thought that, it is kind of far from a plate boundary though). Anyway, it is a Stratovalcano, which is the same as Mount Vesuvius in Italy. So, you could just have more frequent smaller eruptions (like every 50 years instead of the roughly 100 year window it has now), this should prevent the massive eruption in the 10th century. As I said you will have no Heaven Lake cause it was formed because of the 10th century eruption. This also means Baekdu would be taller too.
I brought up Vesusvius cause it had a large eruption in 79 A.D., but only a bunch of smaller ones since then.
The volcano on Jeju Island (Mount Halla) is a shield volcano, so you probably just confused these two. Anyway, less destructive eruptions on a higher frequency would certainly mitigate the devastation, which would lead to a more stable political climate, although dynastic changes would probably be tied to an eruption or eruptions.
Thank you for providing the suggestions.