A quick poll

Is it possible?

  • Yes

    Votes: 38 19.4%
  • No

    Votes: 158 80.6%

  • Total voters
    196
I recently wrote an article for a Mexican magazine in which I provided an alternate history which included a successful German Invasion of Britian in 1940. I was pointed in the direction of this site and told to avoid alternatehistory.com. But instead I decided to join and read your views. I know there are numerous posts on this and even a list of posts on the subject. However ... I'm a curious chap and also a scientist and would love to put some statistics to this if possible. Any chance you could all take a simple poll on the subject of Operation Sea Lion, just a few seconds of your time to answer a couple of simple questions.

A simple yes or no ...

Is a successful conquest of Britain by Germany in September 1940 possible?

Given your answer to the above what is the main reason you would give? (just one reason, just one sentence, a few words, no detail needed)

Thanks
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
Possible? Yes. Plausible? No.

Too much has to go exactly Germanys' way beforehand, while too much has to go catastrophically wrong for Britain on the other.

Falkenburg
 
Yes, it is, with a different Germany and a different Britain (including a POD several decades back). With OTL Germany of 1940, let's just say that Operation Sealion involved invading Britain, which was still the naval power of the world, with river barges. That should be a good enough answer.
 
I recently wrote an article for a Mexican magazine in which I provided an alternate history which included a successful German Invasion of Britian in 1940. I was pointed in the direction of this site and told to avoid alternatehistory.com. But instead I decided to join and read your views. I know there are numerous posts on this and even a list of posts on the subject. However ... I'm a curious chap and also a scientist and would love to put some statistics to this if possible. Any chance you could all take a simple poll on the subject of Operation Sea Lion, just a few seconds of your time to answer a couple of simple questions.

A simple yes or no ...

Is a successful conquest of Britain by Germany in September 1940 possible?

Given your answer to the above what is the main reason you would give? (just one reason, just one sentence, a few words, no detail needed)

Thanks

If this is your exact question, then we eliminate the possibility of any changes before September 1940 and therefore no, it is definitely not possible. An attempt is maybe possible but a successful conquest that results in German control of Great Britain is not possible.

I am of the opinion that changes in the German and British Navies in around 1890-1910 are necessary to make a 1940 conquest possible, anyway. This is assuming that stupid, impossible changes, like the Royal Navy scuttling itself en masse on 1 September 1940, are indeed stupid and impossible.
 
Possible? Yes. Plausible? No.

Too much has to go exactly Germanys' way beforehand, while too much has to go catastrophically wrong for Britain on the other.

Falkenburg

Would be easier to collate the information if you provided one reason if possible such as the Royal Navy was too strong or Britain's land forces were too strong.

So far I get the impression that it was the strength of the RN that people think is the deciding factor but the poll shows people believe it was possible.
 
Would be easier to collate the information if you provided one reason if possible such as the Royal Navy was too strong or Britain's land forces were too strong.

So far I get the impression that it was the strength of the RN that people think is the deciding factor but the poll shows people believe it was possible.

The realtively small German Navy against the truly massive (even with the London Treaty) Royal Navy combined with the Navies of the other allies at the time.

This combined with the fact that Britain had prepared plans for it and even if the Germans managed against all odds to land a well supplied few troops, they'd be stuck where they landed with no way of actually occupying the territory outside of their literal beachhead on account of the aforementioned plans and the fact the British Army and Civil Defence forces would be to much for them to beat.
 
The realtively small German Navy against the truly massive (even with the London Treaty) Royal Navy combined with the Navies of the other allies at the time.

This combined with the fact that Britain had prepared plans for it and even if the Germans managed against all odds to land a well supplied few troops, they'd be stuck where they landed with no way of actually occupying the territory outside of their literal beachhead on account of the aforementioned plans and the fact the British Army and Civil Defence forces would be to much for them to beat.

Before anyone says 'lol brits are sooo much better than french at fighting then, you imperialist pig :rolleyes:', these plans included firing gas shells at the beaches. The Germans would have had a tough fight on their hands.

As for your poll, OP, I think a lot of people are voting 'possible' because they like to think that nothing is ever truly impossible. But with a point of divergence in 1940, Operation Sea Lion is never, ever going to succeed.
 
Could we just not link him to the thousand of other threads on the subject?
I have read hundreds of the thousands of threads already posted and all I want is an idea of how many people think it possible and a quick round up of the reasons people think it would fail or succeed. Not long drawn out thesis or argument ... just fact.
 
Discussions have led me to believe that the invasion of France could have easily fallen on its face. Considering any POD that would make an attempt a Sealion plausible would have to be before the end of the Phony War then the Germans might easily not even get a chance to launch it, ignoring whether or not it would succeed.
 
I have read hundreds of the thousands of threads already posted and all I want is an idea of how many people think it possible and a quick round up of the reasons people think it would fail or succeed. Not long drawn out thesis or argument ... just fact.

We're discussing alternate history. The whole basis of this subject is thesis and argument combined with fact.
 
Invasion is possible, conquest not so much.

If the Germans get incredibly lucky,then yes they could possibly invade. The problem then becomes resupply.

So the Germans somehow manages to get say 10 divisions across the channel (I think this was the target size of the invasion, but I am doing this from memory so these numbers are iffy). They then need a minimum of 500-800 Tons of supply per day per division to supply them. Each barge could hold on the order of 30-50 tons and would sink in any sea state above 2 (considered calm on the channel - it rarely gets this low for any length of time). The RN could cause sinking by running DDs past the barges at high speed without even shooting - their wakes would sink them. Also each barge takes 16-20 hours to make a round trip, with the RN trying to sink them every time they make the trip.

So give the Germans the benefit of the doubt and assume 33% losses every trip it only takes 5-6 trips and they don't have any barges as all, by the second or third day they are not bringing enough supplies to keep the troops on the ground in ammunition. At which point it doesn't matter how good the German troops are in comparison to the British home guard, the British still have ammunition they win.

The above is even without the British use of Gas or bringing the Home Fleet into the mix. Which would happen - the British would be using CR and BB not just DD against the invasion and the beaches. This is an invasion of their homeland they would pull out all the stops.
 
We're discussing alternate history. The whole basis of this subject is thesis and argument combined with fact.
The thesis must be based on fact though and despite many people mentioning poison gas on the beaches I can't find any evidence of clear plans for this to happen, certainly not poison gas shells as you mentioned before. The only thing I have found is an account of a conversation between Churchill and his chief of staff Ismay to consider the use of mustard gas delivered by bombers. There is a note to Ismay regarding the possible use of gas on the beaches of Normandy in '44 but this seems to be the only written record of such orders ... if anyone knows any different please point me in the right direction.
 
I have read hundreds of the thousands of threads already posted and all I want is an idea of how many people think it possible and a quick round up of the reasons people think it would fail or succeed. Not long drawn out thesis or argument ... just fact.

Let's go through a brief checklist then.

Unternehmen Seelöwe had:

No Overall Mission Commander
No Coordinated Planning Staff
No Sound Amphibious Doctrine
No Practical Experience
No Air Superiority
No Sea Control
No Purpose built landing craft
No Heavy lift capability

Of course anything is theoretically possible, the Flying Spaghetti Monster could appear over the British Isles in September and kinetically bombard the British into submission with giant meatballs but the burden of proof must lie upon those who make unfalsifiable claims, not on those who reject them and as such, until someone can come up with a reason which undoes the terminal weaknesses in a proposed German invasion it remains all but certain to have failed.
 
Last edited:
Assuming from the wording of your question that we're not allowed PODs before September 1940 then no.
 
I recently wrote an article for a Mexican magazine in which I provided an alternate history which included a successful German Invasion of Britian in 1940. I was pointed in the direction of this site and told to avoid alternatehistory.com. But instead I decided to join and read your views. I know there are numerous posts on this and even a list of posts on the subject. However ... I'm a curious chap and also a scientist and would love to put some statistics to this if possible. Any chance you could all take a simple poll on the subject of Operation Sea Lion, just a few seconds of your time to answer a couple of simple questions.

A simple yes or no ...

Is a successful conquest of Britain by Germany in September 1940 possible?

Given your answer to the above what is the main reason you would give? (just one reason, just one sentence, a few words, no detail needed)

Thanks

Under a sane(r) leader, yes.
Under Mr. Schicklgruber: NO!
 
Top