Paraguay after success in War of the Triple Alliance?
- Thread starter naraht
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One thing which comes to my mind is sea access. Depending on the scale of its victory, Paraguay could have tried to annex Rio Grande do Sul from Brazil or maybe Corrientes + Entre Rios, in addition to territorial gains in Brazilian Mato Grosso.
Territory in Mato Grosso is likely. But Rio Grande do Sul alone had the same population as Paraguay before the war. I can't see them being able to annex it.
I agree with Matto Grosso. IDK about the rest - it kind of depends on which type of victory Paraguay gets, or even what kind of war its fought.
Maybe they don't even keep Matto Grosso: let's say they defeat/capture the Brazilian ships early in the war. With all sides facing a long and expensive war of attrition (and the likehood of civil war restarting in Argentina), intelligence wins. Paraguay returns the Matto Grosso in exchange for warranties from Argentina about freely using the Parana River (already granted by the 1853 Constitution and ratified when Mitre rose to power in '62) and some concessions regarding Uruguay.
In that scenario, the war is inconclusive - probably all sides claim to have won it, and Paraguay remains mostly the same as it was before the war.
I don't buy the whole: Paraguay industrializes and becomes a South American Prussia - it didn't have the internal market to do so. *Maybe* Solano Lopez inverts as much as he can in heavy/armaments industries which don't do much for long term prosperity once the government can't no longer afford to sustain it. Down the line, anyway, Paraguay remains far more prosperous and populated, which helps the southern cone economy by the 20th century. Maybe the Brazilians military Matto Grosso and long set of fortifications are built across the Argentine-Paraguayan border.
Maybe they don't even keep Matto Grosso: let's say they defeat/capture the Brazilian ships early in the war. With all sides facing a long and expensive war of attrition (and the likehood of civil war restarting in Argentina), intelligence wins. Paraguay returns the Matto Grosso in exchange for warranties from Argentina about freely using the Parana River (already granted by the 1853 Constitution and ratified when Mitre rose to power in '62) and some concessions regarding Uruguay.
In that scenario, the war is inconclusive - probably all sides claim to have won it, and Paraguay remains mostly the same as it was before the war.
I don't buy the whole: Paraguay industrializes and becomes a South American Prussia - it didn't have the internal market to do so. *Maybe* Solano Lopez inverts as much as he can in heavy/armaments industries which don't do much for long term prosperity once the government can't no longer afford to sustain it. Down the line, anyway, Paraguay remains far more prosperous and populated, which helps the southern cone economy by the 20th century. Maybe the Brazilians military Matto Grosso and long set of fortifications are built across the Argentine-Paraguayan border.
Then again, Solano Lopez was never known for his intelligence. I don't know if this is correct, but in school we are taught that the main cause of the war was Paraguay's desire for a coastline. If they win in this scenario, both Brazil and Argentina must be badly hurt in order to be unable to continue the war effort, allowing Paraguay to dictate silly terms which will get them overextended and eventually in crisis too.
Paraguay needs to keep Brazil out of the war inorder to win. The territorial gains in Mato Grosso, are possible but it would have to be under a peace treaty to establish borders. There were undefined at this point, and a more successful Paraguay could persuade Brazil to give some concessions.
From Argentina, Formosa (already disputed), Missiones and Corrientes will likely end up in Paraguay's hands. But while the goal was sea access I can't really see Paraguay being able to take much of Entre Rios or anything further to really gain access. It would have to wriggle out economic consessions.
From Argentina, Formosa (already disputed), Missiones and Corrientes will likely end up in Paraguay's hands. But while the goal was sea access I can't really see Paraguay being able to take much of Entre Rios or anything further to really gain access. It would have to wriggle out economic consessions.
The thing is, the 1853 Argentine Constitution declared all internal rivers to be open for navigation for ships of all flags and that was ratified in 1860. So, in theory, Paraguay already had access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Paraná River. I don't know how that actually worked in the years before the war.
Paraguay needs Taiwan as well as Alsace-Lorraine. They've got too much style for the limited goals of others.Paraguayan Taiwan!?!
Here is a quick sketch of the scenario I proposed above. All the colored in areas is as large as I think Paraguay could get.
Essentially if it doesn't invade Uruguay, keeping both Uruguay and Brazil out of the war, it would keep its Argentine Formosa (yes it is a province there) and Mato Grosso claims. It would then gain a chunk to the west, and the provinces of Missiones and Corrientes to the east.
Brazil could the be persuaded to give some concessions on the rest of Paraguay's Mato Grosso claims in the northwest.
Ultimately Paraguay would have much better, claim and access to the Gran Chaco and likely end up with a bigger bite when it and Bolivia butt heads over it.
I think this is stretching it already. Paraguay can't really touch Uruguay without getting Brazil involved, and a growing Paraguay would be a bigger pain on Brazil. I think it would be best for it to court Uruguay as an ally from here on.
Pretty impressive, seemingly more than doubles Paraguayan land area. I suppose it's different in terms of population, but that's huge anyway. Could we see a Chile-Paraguay alliance to keep Bolivia and Argentina in check in the aftermath?
This is the Paraguayan claims IOTL. They probably would get the two areas bordering Brazil and the orange/green area bordering Argentina (Formosa). The border with Bolivia would probably be decided only much later, as IOTL. I'm not sure if they would be able to get Corrientes. The correntinos supported them before the war -as Lopez was seen as an enemy of the central government in Buenos Aires - but after the invasion of the Province the population quickly turned against the Paraguayans.
Miguel Lanius
Banned
This seems very realistic and far-away from the Paraguayan wank tale someone once told me about, Ética da Traição. I read it and indeed it was a paraguay wank, but it was intentional.
And a trans-continental railroad to link them both, don't forget it! And African colonies, gotta have African colonies to estabilish street creed!
A warm-water port on each side of the South American Cone, perhaps?
And a trans-continental railroad to link them both, don't forget it! And African colonies, gotta have African colonies to estabilish street creed!
Very likely, Chile and Paraguay's interest don't overlap. But they both have contested claims and issues with Argentina and Bolivia - if they act smartly they should be able to work something out. Paraguay should also really court Uruguay into an economic/military alliance.
And all along Brazil would be very nervous - likely building up its army just in case.
And settling territory, I think - for instance, Foz do Iguaçu was founded in 1889 as a military colony. I'd expect something like that earlier. Also, the first railroad between Mato Grosso and São Paulo was completed in 1910. Here, I'd say it gets built much earlier.
Or allying with both to keep the Argentines down... a Brazil allied with a stronger Paraguay and Uruguay means no border with Argentina, so there is one headache gone.