Plausability check: Peru-Bolivia-Chile Confederation

NuclearVacuum

I kinda thought of this idea from a previous post (https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=253528), and wanted to know of a potential union between Chile and the Peru-Bolivian Confederacy some point in the mid 19th century. I brought this idea up with a Chilean friend, who made mention that an idea may be possible had the Pipiolos won the (first) Chilean Civil War. From what I have read on my own, Ramon Freire (leader of the Pipiolos and former president) supported the Confederation, and was supportive of Santa Cruz.

Could a greater confederation be possible under these circumstances?
 

Lord Grattan

It's possible, but not likely. The economic and political threat posed by the Peru–Bolivian Confederation will still exist in Chile, not to mention the other political & economic forces that were at work undermining the confederation from within (especially among North-Peruvians land owners). There are also the issues of communication, defense and developing a cohesive national identity within this larger confederation which would need to be addressed.
 
juanml82

juanml82

Certainly not, but if I'm not mistaken by the timeframe (late 1820s?) there is little to nothing Argentina can do: by that time the country is exhausted by the war with Brazil and in civil war.
Still, I don't think such a confederation would be long lived - too many internal factors conspire against it. Of course, if it did, it has some massive mineral wealth buried deep down. Turning that into long term stability and prosperity for the majority is a challenge, though. Mining doesn't have the multiplying effect industries and, eventually, the service sector have and thus, tends to create an elite of rich businessmen happily keeping their country as a resource extraction place while most of the population remain poor.
 

wolf_brother

Banned
Rosas' Argentina fought to end the confederation IOTL during the War of the Confederation. With a much closer opponent he might even be able to bring some of his opponents in out of rebellion in the name of unity against a common foe.
 

NuclearVacuum

Well, if my parameters aren't going to work, what would there have to be for this to work. I guess this is turning into a challenge.
 
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EMT

Well, I don't think anyone's saying it's impossible, just difficult.

If you're willing to go far back, you could have the division of the original Viceroyalty of Peru(Spanish South America) go a different path and have Chile be treated as part of Peru, although the reason it got broken off was due to the Atacama desert, I believe.

If I recall right, the Spanish more or less destroyed whatever irrigation systems were in place in the coastal deserts of South America, so I suppose you could have some form of minor butterfly result in an Atacama desert that's more bearable for the Spanish to cross resulting in the region known as Chile being a part of 'Peru'.

Not sure what the butterflies on this could be, despite being Peruvian though.
 

NuclearVacuum

EMT said:
Well, I don't think anyone's saying it's impossible, just difficult.

If you're willing to go far back, you could have the division of the original Viceroyalty of Peru(Spanish South America) go a different path and have Chile be treated as part of Peru, although the reason it got broken off was due to the Atacama desert, I believe.

If I recall right, the Spanish more or less destroyed whatever irrigation systems were in place in the coastal deserts of South America, so I suppose you could have some form of minor butterfly result in an Atacama desert that's more bearable for the Spanish to cross resulting in the region known as Chile being a part of 'Peru'.

Not sure what the butterflies on this could be, despite being Peruvian though.
Click to expand...

Thank you for this. However, the POD I have in mind is about 1821.
 
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Falecius

EMT said:
Well, I don't think anyone's saying it's impossible, just difficult.

If you're willing to go far back, you could have the division of the original Viceroyalty of Peru(Spanish South America) go a different path and have Chile be treated as part of Peru, although the reason it got broken off was due to the Atacama desert, I believe.

If I recall right, the Spanish more or less destroyed whatever irrigation systems were in place in the coastal deserts of South America, so I suppose you could have some form of minor butterfly result in an Atacama desert that's more bearable for the Spanish to cross resulting in the region known as Chile being a part of 'Peru'.

Not sure what the butterflies on this could be, despite being Peruvian though.
Click to expand...

IIRC, Chile was actually under the viceroyalty of Peru, while Atacama and present day Bolivia were attached to Rio de La Plata.
 

EMT

Falecius said:
IIRC, Chile was actually under the viceroyalty of Peru, while Atacama and present day Bolivia were attached to Rio de La Plata.
Click to expand...


Well, Bolivia was transferred to Rio de La Plata rather late IIRC, close to the point when Spain lost control of the colonies. Like, 1780s at the earliest, I think.

Chile was its own captaincy general, but yeah, more or less under Peru. It was actually forcefully reintegrated fully, alongside Quito and most of Bolivia and Andean Argentina, when the independence wars broke out.

Maybe a POD that results in San Martin and Bolivar failing miserably outside of the Southern Cone east of the Andes and Colombia/Venezuela could result in what the OP's aiming for? That would more or less give you the Incan Empire, with a bit more land further south, which is basically Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus the remaining Andes mountains.

Hell, have them give up Ecuador and chunks of Argentina as concessions for peace, and you would have what you're aiming for, a united state that spans Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus-or-minus some other territories.
 

NuclearVacuum

EMT said:
Well, Bolivia was transferred to Rio de La Plata rather late IIRC, close to the point when Spain lost control of the colonies. Like, 1780s at the earliest, I think.

Chile was its own captaincy general, but yeah, more or less under Peru. It was actually forcefully reintegrated fully, alongside Quito and most of Bolivia and Andean Argentina, when the independence wars broke out.

Maybe a POD that results in San Martin and Bolivar failing miserably outside of the Southern Cone east of the Andes and Colombia/Venezuela could result in what the OP's aiming for? That would more or less give you the Incan Empire, with a bit more land further south, which is basically Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus the remaining Andes mountains.

Hell, have them give up Ecuador and chunks of Argentina as concessions for peace, and you would have what you're aiming for, a united state that spans Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus-or-minus some other territories.
Click to expand...

Just to see if I get it right. Bolivar is unable to liberate Peru and Ecuador, while San Martin is unable to liberate Chile and "Bolivia," allowing the regions to remain a united, loyalist state. Thank you, but this isn't what I am looking for either. If you could clarify. Also, because I had a typo, I actually meant to say the 1820s as the POD, so I am not too sure if this will work here.
 

Lord Grattan

NuclearVacuum said:
Just to see if I get it right. Bolivar is unable to liberate Peru and Ecuador, while San Martin is unable to liberate Chile and "Bolivia," allowing the regions to remain a united, loyalist state. Thank you, but this isn't what I am looking for either. If you could clarify. Also, because I had a typo, I actually meant to say the 1820s as the POD, so I am not too sure if this will work here.
Click to expand...

Please forgive my bluntness, but, you may need to focus on a different/earlier time period in order to find a POD that works. The internal "on the ground" factors in play in that region by the 1820's make such a confederation unlikely and a lasting confederation improbable. Now, if you wish to cast aside such words (unlikely and improbable) all that you need to do is find someone from OTL who sought to bring about such a confederation during the 1820's and have him succeed in the endeavor.
 
luis3007

luis3007

19th century is too late for any type of federation to remain viable.

The Bourboun reforms in the late 18th century made de jure a situation that was de facto since the 1600s: New Granada, New Mexico, Peru and La Plata Viceroyalties were independent from each other and only responded to the Spanish crown.

Before that both New Mexico and Peru were the main Viceroyalties and legaly controlled the others, but as I said this was a legal fiction not the facts on the ground.
 
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NuclearVacuum

EMT said:
Well, Bolivia was transferred to Rio de La Plata rather late IIRC, close to the point when Spain lost control of the colonies. Like, 1780s at the earliest, I think.

Chile was its own captaincy general, but yeah, more or less under Peru. It was actually forcefully reintegrated fully, alongside Quito and most of Bolivia and Andean Argentina, when the independence wars broke out.

Maybe a POD that results in San Martin and Bolivar failing miserably outside of the Southern Cone east of the Andes and Colombia/Venezuela could result in what the OP's aiming for? That would more or less give you the Incan Empire, with a bit more land further south, which is basically Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus the remaining Andes mountains.

Hell, have them give up Ecuador and chunks of Argentina as concessions for peace, and you would have what you're aiming for, a united state that spans Peru-Bolivia-Chile plus-or-minus some other territories.
Click to expand...

Sorry for bringing this up again, but I have been thinking that this idea might be interesting to look into as its own timeline. But before I go out of my way, could this idea be plausible?
 
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