Why did apartheid South Africa collapse so suddenly?

It just seems kind of strange. South Africa managed to survive international sanctions for decades, and maintain a relatively high standard of living for it's white population at that. How is it that they suddenly began buckling in the 1980s?

Was it even because of sanctions, or because F.W. de Klerk was a courageous leader who knew what had to be done and began systematically dismantling apartheid? If De Clerk hadn't begun demolishing it, would apartheid still be around?

By the 1980's, this system was pretty much collapsing. South Africa had very serious inflation problems. This can be chalked up to sanctions as much as to the fact that economically South Africa was starting to reach the end of its tether with regards to Apartheid. We have to remember that Apartheid was a highly economic system as opposed to a political one, the Bantustans and the pass system were a means of creating a stable, manageable supply of cheap black labor, the Bantustans themselves were almost universally unprofitable, and even the more affluent ones (notably the Bantustan that had Sun City, which was a sort of Apartheid-style Las Vegas) were entirely dependent upon Pretoria for economic survival and had little prospects on their own. As a result the blacks of the various homelands had little other choice than to leave the homelands and go to South Africa proper for work. Needless to say, when Pretoria starts to feel the economic pinch of years of an unsustainable system combined with almost complete economic isolation from the rest of the world, the system begins to fall apart.

Basically, De Klerk was the smart, moderate fellow who realized that Apartheid did not have the economic or political capability to keep going and that holding the majority black population back by force was only going to encourage an extremely bloody end to Apartheid.

He chose the smart route and negotiated with Mandela because Mandela was the sort of man who wasn't too extreme to be worked with. It is my opinion (though, I would really want to wait for Marius' call on this, since Marius is actually from South Africa) that despite its many flaws and the unresolved problems that sprang up afterward, that Apartheid ended about as well as it could have in South Africa. It was peaceful, and really, by the late 1980's around the time we are seeing De Klerk be in power, there was plenty of chance for things to turn very ugly very quickly.

Just how bad could it have ended?

Armored Diplomacy said:

Just how bad could it have ended?

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See the collapse of Yugoslavia.

Armored Diplomacy said:

Just how bad could it have ended?

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Large scale Zimbabwe?

Very very badly

Race war, in a nation we know had nuclear weapons, and a lot of white extremists who would have prefered going down swinging, the whites would have lost in the end, but for all it's problems, at least current SA doesn't have a half a dozen nuclear craters where it's major cities were*. Thank God DeClerk was capable of saying stop this madness, was able to make the whites accept change had to come and that in Mandela and the ANC of that period he found an opposition who were prepared to talk.

*As far as we know there were only ever six operational nukes with one more in production when the program ended, though of course they could have built more if things got really bad and civil war became a certainty.

Helios Ra said:

Large scale Zimbabwe?

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Worse. Outright liquidation of the white population, subjugation and probable expulsion of Asians and many Coloureds, internecine war over the spoils, and an eventual dictatorship that would make Mugabe look like Thomas Jefferson. Of course, all of that would follow the use of nuclear weapons by the White regime as its last gasp.

All of that of course is the absolute WORST case scenario. More likely is a partitioned state with white people, Asians and collaborators concentrated in a militarized rump state and the rest of the country under radicalized ANC rule. It would look quite a lot like Bosnia.

azander12 said:

Worse. Outright liquidation of the white population, subjugation and probable expulsion of Asians and many Coloureds, internecine war over the spoils, and an eventual dictatorship that would make Mugabe look like Thomas Jefferson. Of course, all of that would follow the use of nuclear weapons by the White regime as its last gasp.

All of that of course is the absolute WORST case scenario. More likely is a partitioned state with white people, Asians and collaborators concentrated in a militarized rump state and the rest of the country under radicalized ANC rule. It would look quite a lot like Bosnia.

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Is it me or the worst radicalisation would be not of the ANC, but that Zulu party? They seem more agressive, nationalistic.... I know jack on it, thought, I admit.

I remember watching a documentary of the South African *Nazi Movement in the last days of Apartheid. It showed footage of their thugs breaking through the entrance of the ANC offices in Jo'burg while white police stood by. Mandela threatened to muster ANC supporters as militia to protect themselves if the police didn't up their game.

Similarly there was the Nazi invasion cum drive-by of one of the Bantustans, which was run by a military strongman. The 'national' army promptly mobilised and showed what professional soldiers can do to red necks in pick-up trucks.

Both these incidents, though performed by radicals clearly shows the possibility of anarchy - an uncooperative police force, political militia, ready made tin pot dictatorships, a few nukes, it could be truly awful.

It's funny that you refer to the AWB men as rednecks.

That's what the Afrikaaners called English-speaking Whites..."roinecks".

I was there in the seventies.

One of the things that is not readily admitted to by those in the white community who lust after the so called good old days, was that civil disobedience amongst whites was growing. In particular, response to compulsory military call ups for active duty, were getting poorer and poorer. It should be remebered that SA had been fighting a low scale war since circ 1965; This had escalated, by the 80's, into a full scale confrontations between the Cuba/USSR/Angola/SWAPO/ANC axis on the one side, and SA on the other. The war involved the full spectrum, from MBT's to supersonic jets to submarines and littoral naval warfare.

The costs were really hammering the SA economy - sanctions didnt help, but in my opinion it was the cost of the war that really hurt. Also, after 1976, the internal security situation was parlous to say the least. Parts of the townships (Dormitory towns for blacks, generally situated out of the white cities) were ungovernable; The homelands or bantustan policy was failing and white emigration was skyrocketing.

So you have a demoralised or antagonistic white community, sanctions and a war to be fought and on top of it, internal unrest.

I dont believe that De Klerk was any more of a liberal than any of his predecessors; He was however, a realist and the writing was on the wall for the apartheid state. He did what was right for the country.

Apartheid could not, and in fact never could have, survived. If the decisions of 1990 had not been made, the result would have been very very ugly. For one thing, the regime fielded the most powerfull and technologically savvy field army in Africa, supported by a powerfull airforce and a large, and brutal, police force. (The police were militarised, and had their own armour and airwings) There was an advanced NBC program and an armed civilian population. There was also a very clear set of war plans. On the other side there was the makings of an internal insurrection, ill equipped, ill led and without clear war aims.(Kill the Boers does not constitute a war plan when put into action against the SADF)

Conventional wisdom has it that the whites would have lost - I am not so sure. I was part of this machine for many years, and there were some really tough people out there, both physically and mentally. And bear in mind that if the brown stuff had hit the rotating air impeller, all the factors regarding white disinclination to play would have dissapeared in a blink - survival would have been the only issue.

I believe that it would have been fought out to the point where all that was left was stones to throw at each other. International intervention against a demonstrated nuclear power - and they probably would have used them if the Cubans intervened(And one that would have shown itself to be clinically insane by the time an intervention could have started)? I dont think so ......

BTW I have never believed that there were only six nukes - those were proof of concepts and prototypes

nwanda said:

One of the things that is not readily admitted to by those in the white community who lust after the so called good old days, was that civil disobedience amongst whites was growing. In particular, response to compulsory military call ups for active duty, were getting poorer and poorer. It should be remebered that SA had been fighting a low scale war since circ 1965; This had escalated, by the 80's, into a full scale confrontations between the Cuba/USSR/Angola/SWAPO/ANC axis on the one side, and SA on the other. The war involved the full spectrum, from MBT's to supersonic jets to submarines and littoral naval warfare.

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Interesting you bring up the Border War as getting going in '65. While fighting was happening that early (helping the Portuguese, and SWAPO in Zambia), I'd always thought of it as not really getting going until '75 when things in Angola really got hot.

It started in 65 ish with the first incursions from SWAPO into Ovamboland; At first the SA Police were tasked to handle it, but as it slowly escalated the army got involved. But you are right, the faecal matter really started flying from the mid seventies. I think however that the critical issue was that a war mentality was developed and ruthlessly encouraged, by the regime. This just adds to the scenario I have in mind.

BTW the Rhodesian war was also on at that time, which didn't help

PS Also both Rhodesia and the then South West Africa demonstrated that the best way to fight insurgents is not to arm PC Plod with an SLR and send him off into the bush ....

"There are decades where weeks happen, and weeks where decades happen"

VI Lenin.



If you went to management textbooks, I think the current Buzz word is tipping point. Over time, other groups have other words. What happens is there tends to be discrete states that take the slow accumulation of events to finally flip. Much like water boiling. You can look at the fall of the Tsar. Or think about a job. You do years of good work and then one final event gets you promoted. Or years of substandard work, and one final small event pushes them into firing you. Or people put on weight over the years and receive negative comments about being fat, then one day one small event flips them, and they decide to lose weight. All these are just because how our brain works. I am sure there is some answer why we work like that in evolutionary biology, but I can't give it to you.

And mobs also work the same way. People slowly become less racist, then one month the civil rights act of 1964 passes. Exactly why did a President that was lukewarm on Civil rights death assassination cause it to pass? What was the final part the brought down the Soviet Union. What actually persuade the two KGB divisions not to storm Moscow and kill Yeltsin?

People in South Africa were moving out, hard to have a society based on a particular group without that group.


As HeavyWeaponsGuy pointed out a key factor was having Nelson Mandela available to negotiate in good faith.

Interesting bit that about whites refusing military service because that was also a factor in the final collapse of Rhodesia, by the late 1970's many young whites were choosing to emigrate rather than face years of military service. The population was completely war weary and obviously a similar feeling took hold in South Africa.

Another reason why white SA was able to last so long was that up until the mid 1970's it was effectively shielded by Rhodesia and the Portuguese in Angola and Mozambique. Once they fell it faced a direct military threat for the first time and it was drawn into open ended conflicts like The Border War and the other externals. These strained the economy to breaking point, not helped by sanctions and trying to keep the non whites in check.

As The Oncoming Storm says, the buffer states did help - sort of like throwing one person off of the sled, to the wolves, to save the others ....

The End Conscription Campaign in SA was possible one of the most effective ANC fronts of them all. I served part of my time assisting the SAAF police in tracking down draft dodgers - in the end it became allmost an impossible task.

Armored Diplomacy said:

Just how bad could it have ended?

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In two words:
Race. War.

nwanda said:

It started in 65 ish with the first incursions from SWAPO into Ovamboland; At first the SA Police were tasked to handle it, but as it slowly escalated the army got involved. But you are right, the faecal matter really started flying from the mid seventies. I think however that the critical issue was that a war mentality was developed and ruthlessly encouraged, by the regime. This just adds to the scenario I have in mind.

BTW the Rhodesian war was also on at that time, which didn't help

PS Also both Rhodesia and the then South West Africa demonstrated that the best way to fight insurgents is not to arm PC Plod with an SLR and send him off into the bush ....

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Interesting.
I know SA was watching what was going on in Rhodesia, but that their offical policy was very much hands-off...

I've always been curious why SA gold and diamonds are rarely brought up in the discussion about their situation. Economically they were indeed very much isolated due to the international situation, but West Africa demonstrated that diamonds and precious metals can go a very long way towards supporting ostricized regimes...
What was they story with SA's top-dollar mineral resources finding their way into the world market illegitimately?

The Oncoming Storm said:

Interesting bit that about whites refusing military service because that was also a factor in the final collapse of Rhodesia, by the late 1970's many young whites were choosing to emigrate rather than face years of military service. The population was completely war weary and obviously a similar feeling took hold in South Africa.

Another reason why white SA was able to last so long was that up until the mid 1970's it was effectively shielded by Rhodesia and the Portuguese in Angola and Mozambique. Once they fell it faced a direct military threat for the first time and it was drawn into open ended conflicts like The Border War and the other externals. These strained the economy to breaking point, not helped by sanctions and trying to keep the non whites in check.

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Speaking of which: my understanding is that Rhodesia was far more concerned with ZANU & Co operating out of Mozambique, and that Angola was much less of a concern (much smaller border area) although things were indeed nasty all over.
Meanwhile, SA was almost entirely embroiled in the Angola border area and that things with Moz were relatively calm: that even contraband oil was coming in through Beira.

As such, how was Ian Smith's regime "shielding" SA from a larger war? A larger war with whom? Even when Rhodesia fell, things with Mozambique nevery really got all that exciting...

nwanda said:

As The Oncoming Storm says, the buffer states did help - sort of like throwing one person off of the sled, to the wolves, to save the others ....

The End Conscription Campaign in SA was possible one of the most effective ANC fronts of them all. I served part of my time assisting the SAAF police in tracking down draft dodgers - in the end it became allmost an impossible task.

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That's also something that's confused me a bit.

Perhaps I'm totally wrong, but when ever I look at either Border War or Rhodi-war ORBAT's, I'm always taken by the surprisingly SMALL number of troops being committed to the fight.

And were draft dodgers that much of a deciding factor? After all, there WERE a very large number of (unrecognized) Black SA'ers who fought as well. Or were they the one's doing the dodging (assumed both though)?