Cross-posted from
this thread. wanted to give this its own thread to get some discussion going.
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(btw, most of this is from memory, referencing a JSTOR article called "'La République en danger'? The Pretenders, the Army and Déroulède, 1898-1899", by Maurice Larkin, from 1985.)
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Though it was a fairly stable republic (compared to Napoleon's Second Empire, or the Second republic) here are a few ways to collapse the Troisième République and replace it with another REACTION. For example, in the late 1890s, the state had to deal with both the affaire Dreyfus, and a political crisis after the death of president Félix Faure in Feb. 1899. During his funeral, reactionary / revanchist politician Paul Déroulède sought to instigate a coup against the Third Republic, centered around his political group, the Ligue des patriotes (League of Patriots, an organization which had become anti-republican, xenophic and antisemitic after its creation), which had supported General Boulanger's populist movement earlier in the decade...
Before the funeral of President Faure, Déroulède sought the support of two prominent generals - Gauderique Roget and Georges de Pellieux, who was the opponent of Alfred Dreyfus and Emile Zola in the affaire Dreyfus - in staging a military coup. The date was set for 23 feb 1899... but Pellieux lost his nerve at the last minute and bowed out, which led to Déroulède literally begging Gen. Roget to march on L'Elysee and instigate the coup. Roget remained loyal to the Republic, and the coup failed. Déroulède was arrested, and that was that.
There are a few interesting possible outcomes of these events. The first is the most obvious - Georges de Pellieux goes all in on the coup attempt, and Roget does not back down. The Republic falls, to be replaced with a more authoritarian state (yet still republican- Déroulède was opposed to the Orléanistes and the Bonapartes, though less the latter than the former) based on a more conservative state / watered-down 2nd Empire, with a weak parliament and a strong president elected by universal suffrage.
Another possibility is that, even if Pellieux backs out, Roget and Déroulède go ahead with the coup. It fails miserably, and upon arrest Roget claims that he was innocent the whole time and M. Déroulède made him do it... but the republic is still thrown into chaos, and both the Bonapartistes and the Orléanists rally in support of Victor Napoléon and Prince Philippe d’Orléans, respectively, to restore either a Third Empire or a ... second "July Monarchy"?... and if it comes to this, my money is on the Orléanistes, as the Bonapartisans ( ) were too timid after the fall of Napoléon III, so would probably cede the initiative to the bolder supporters of Prince Philippe. After all, this is all going to go down in a matter of hours: 23 Feb 1899, General Roget and Déroulède march on Parliament, throwing the government into disorder. By the 24th or 25th, someone is going to be sitting in l'Élysée, either as provisional President of the Republic, or provisional Chief of State of a restored monarchy.
And things go downhill from there...