A Virginia Independent of the Union and Confederacy

What would be the concequences of an independent Virginian Republic, beyond the obvious fact that the Northern Virginia wouldn't be the main front? I'm assuming that Virginia declares it's neutrality in the conflict.

Also Lee may or may not stay with Virginia. He wouldn't be crossing swords with them...

Also Virginia only has to stay independent for the duration of the war. Some time after the war Virginia can rejoin the Union. West Virgina can decide to secede from Virginia.

Someone eventually does a Polk (Polk "entered" Kentucky thus ending its self-declared neutrality).

Much greater emphasis on the naval part of the war, for one. New Orleans is joined by perhaps North Carolina or Savannah as points of attack to start the Anaconda Plan or its equivalent. (carleston would likely be seen as too tough and well defended.)

Teh capital remains in Montgomery.

Teh first AoTP commander stays in Washignton, D.C. with a token force playing "desk jockey" for all itnents and purposes, though he'll be called upon to defend D.C. and the area if someone should "pupll a Polk" as noted above.

Not only Missouri but Texas might see greater action, as the Union seeks some way into the heart of the south.

General George Thomas isn't seen as quite as much of a traitor to Virginia; Virginia officerswho go one way or the other are seen much more like Kentucky officers.

If Polk does what he did in OTL Kentucky becomes much more of a battleground.

Irvin McDowell knew his army was very inexperienced before First Bull Run OTL; perhaps he spends the time trying to prepare them and gaints some support for further corps command anyway later in the war. I wonder if he culd have been better with more able troops.

There was a proposal (as the sectional crisis mounted) to create a "Confederation of Border States" to be both independent of and prevent war between the slaveholders south of TN and the Unionists north of the Ohio. I don't know how much support this had, but the "Border States" did elect what amounted to their own candidate in '60.

So in this scenario, Virginia is basically like Kentucky in 1861, but more aligned to the Confederacy. Whereas Kentucky was likely to bolt to the Union when forced to decide, Virginia is likely to bolt to the Confederacy.

You will have volunteers leaving the state going to both sides, but more fort he Confederacy. Lincoln is likely to avoid antagonizing Virginia further, but someone from the south is likely to march in troops. At that point, either Virginia sides with the Confederacy or the Union.

I honestly don't see this independent status lasting long. But if we are supposed to treat this as if Virginia never involves itself with the war, then the Confederacy is probably defeated before the end of 1863. Tennessee quickly falls to the Union as does the Mississippi River Valley, and the Union advances deep into Arkansas and Mississippi in 1862. In 1863, Alabama is invaded and Atlanta taken. At which points some kind of peace is reached.

Virginia just provided too much support for the Confederacy for its absence to not have a huge impact. It was a large manpower reserve, provided its best military leader, and was a significant economic engine. While some of these benefits will still be present to the Confederacy, the lack of full support will be noticeable.

I don't see West Virginia seceding from Virginia. I don't know whether the Emancipation Proclamation takes effect, or if anti-slavery amendments are passed. Given the quickened collapse of the confederacy in this scenario, Lincoln certainly wouldn't need to do it to forestall European recognition. However, much of northern public opinion will be against it. Still, with such quick successes, Lincoln might feel emboldened to do it anyway, confident that it won't hurt the war effort. The only problem is whether concern about Virginia rejoining ultimately prevents that from happening.

If Virginia secedes, as the title "Independent Virginia" suggests, then Lincoln won't care whether it's part of the Confederacy or not - they're still rebels.

If Virginia tries to be "neutral" there are two likely options. Either the Union counts that as separation (and invades them, as above) or they don't. If they don't, then Virginia is going to still be considered as being "in the Union", and so won't likely end up independent.

If the (rump) CSA wins independence (mostly because the Union can't reach them in this scenario - assuming Kentucky is also "neutral"), then possibly Virginia might later decide to secede themselves. But that's going to be problematic. A successful secession on the part of the CSA is almost certainly going to generate a constitutional amendment prohibiting secession, and there will be a strong opinion of "never again".

So even if they DID try, later, I think they'd fail. Thus, I don't SEE a scenario that ends up with an Independent Virginia.

Dirk_Pitt said:

What would be the concequences of an independent Virginian Republic, beyond the obvious fact that the Northern Virginia wouldn't be the main front? I'm assuming that Virginia declares it's neutrality in the conflict.

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Not a plausible premise. There was a solid majority in Virginia for declaring secession (and joining the CSA) if the slavery issues were not resolved on terms satisfactory to "the South". Part of this majority opposed secession as long as that appeared to be possible. When the CSA fired on Fort Sumter, that possibility went away, and Virginia declared secession.

Unless the President adopts a grovelling pro-Southern policy, the Deep South states will not rescind secession, and probably not even then.

If the Deep South stays out, eventually Virginia will declare secession too.

Dirk_Pitt said:

What would be the concequences of an independent Virginian Republic, beyond the obvious fact that the Northern Virginia wouldn't be the main front? I'm assuming that Virginia declares it's neutrality in the conflict.

Also Lee may or may not stay with Virginia. He wouldn't be crossing swords with them...

Also Virginia only has to stay independent for the duration of the war. Some time after the war Virginia can rejoin the Union. West Virgina can decide to secede from Virginia.

Click to expand...

With the pod you would need to get a independent Virginia, there is in all likelihood, not going to be any American Civil War that would resemble OTL's Civil War.