CSA survives: What happens to slave states in the North?

[Rush Tarquin]

Thought experiment:

The CSA secedes from the Union, but the Union retains West Virginia, Virginia north of the Rappahannock, Arkansas, and western Tennessee. These, in combination with Delaware, Maryland, Missouri, and Kentucky, are areas that are slave states or were part of slave states. Some questions about these states:

If these results of the war come before the Emancipation Proclamation, how long does it take before the slaves in these states are freed?
What does reconstruction look like? Is it better or worse than OTL?
How long before the applicable states regain readmittance to the Union/civilian government/self-government/normal political representation at the federal level?
Will there be *Jim Crow laws?
Will the *Klan have a presence?
Will the *Klan be able to have as much influence over state governments further down the line?
What happens to the Democrats in these states?
Will the Democrats be able to recover faster at the federal level?

[Simon]

Well with the CSA gone there's going to be nothing to stop the federal government from passing the laws to outlaw slavery, although with how pissed off the northerners are likely to be at losing - or at beast being fought to a draw - I could see them emancipation proclamationing their arses in very short order. It could either go the way it did in our timeline with the moderates in control due to people just being tired of the whole affair or the Radical Republicans might get to impose their harsh version of reconstruction if there isn't a south to counterbalance them and as what revenge is available. With a much smaller possible sized area you might actually see the government do reconstruction properly rather than just lose interest.

[oudi14]

I have a number of questions. First, does this mean that these areas were captured by Union forces in 1861, or did they never secede? I'm referring to AR, TN and VA. I can't imagine any reason why Arkansas wouldn't have seceded, and if any part of Tennessee had opted to stay in the Union, it would have been the east, as per OTL. I don't know why any part of Virginia would have opted out, except for OTL WV. As for the slave states that stayed in the union in OTL, I recently started a thread about this, but it didn't attract much attention. Perhaps this one will be more successful. Beyond that, I really don't know; although however you scramble events, I believe border state slavery is gone by 1865, 1870 at the latest, followed by no more than 5 years by the upper south. It lasts in the deep south for a while, but goes away there by 1890 or thereabouts. Many on this board will disagree, and clain that it would have lasted into the early 20th century at least.

[Rush Tarquin]

Originally Posted by oudi14

I have a number of questions. First, does this mean that these areas were captured by Union forces in 1861, or did they never secede? I'm referring to AR, TN and VA. I can't imagine any reason why Arkansas wouldn't have seceded, and if any part of Tennessee had opted to stay in the Union, it would have been the east, as per OTL. I don't know why any part of Virginia would have opted out, except for OTL WV. As for the slave states that stayed in the union in OTL, I recently started a thread about this, but it didn't attract much attention. Perhaps this one will be more successful. Beyond that, I really don't know; although however you scramble events, I believe border state slavery is gone by 1865, 1870 at the latest, followed by no more than 5 years by the upper south. It lasts in the deep south for a while, but goes away there by 1890 or thereabouts. Many on this board will disagree, and clain that it would have lasted into the early 20th century at least.

Well, like I said, thought exercise. Same states leave, no Plan Anaconda or Atlanta Campaign, war ends much later than your scenario, Union keeps the pieces of land they're sitting on in the peace treaty, delayed Emancipation Proclamation. Put it down to different people in charge.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Rush Tarquin

Thought experiment:

The CSA secedes from the Union, but the Union retains West Virginia, Virginia north of the Rappahannock, Arkansas, and western Tennessee. These, in combination with Delaware, Maryland, Missouri, and Kentucky, are areas that are slave states or were part of slave states. Some questions about these states.

Let's clarify this.

11 slave states declare secession and form the CSA.

4 slave states remain in the Union.

The Union invades the CSA, and conquers or holds certain areas, including western Tennessee, western Virginia, northern Virginia, and Arkansas.

Query: how is it that the Union has west Tennessee and not New Orleans?
Or is it that the Union had both, but returned only New Orleans?

The CSA halts the Union invasion, and forces the Union to recognize CSA independence.

The terms of that recognition are key. The CSA will be very reluctant to accept a settlement which leaves significant parts of any Confederate state in Union hands.

The CSA may be forced to settle for a fait accompli regarding western Virginia, as most of that region was never under CSA control to begin with. Western Tennessee is unlikely, Arkansas almost impossble, except a few areas along the Mississippi, and northern Virginia flatly unacceptable.

If these results of the war come before the Emancipation Proclamation,

It seems rather hard for this result to come afterwards.

how long does it take before the slaves in these states are freed?

A better question would be - how long before slavery is ended in these states. Because the odds are most of the slaves there would be transported to the CSA by their emigrating owners, or sold into the CSA.

What does reconstruction look like? Is it better or worse than OTL?

The only areas of "Reconstruction" would be the area of Tennessee (which is very unlikely)

How long before the applicable states regain readmittance to the Union/civilian government/self-government/normal political representation at the federal level?

Which states? None of the Border States nor West Virginia were ever excluded from Congress.

Will there be *Jim Crow laws?

Almost certainly. "Jim Crow" laws first appeared in the North.

Will the *Klan have a presence?

There would be no Klan. The Klan was formed to strongarm control of the state governments in the Deep South and parts of the Upper South, where Republicans gained control of state and local governments, with black support. This threatened white supremacy.

The Border States didn't have enough blacks for that. So no *Klan.

What happens to the Democrats in these states?

They dominate, perhaps less than OTL.

Will the Democrats be able to recover faster at the federal level?

The Democrats recovered pretty well OTL. In 1874, IIRC, Democrats won a majority of US House seats outside the "Confederate" states.

[Rush Tarquin]

To start with, I'll state that this scenario is aimed at giving the Union a maximum of slave states while trying to keep the CSA a viable state. I'm flexible on just how much of the CSA is taken back.

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

Let's clarify this.

11 slave states declare secession and form the CSA.

4 slave states remain in the Union.

The Union invades the CSA, and conquers or holds certain areas, including western Tennessee, western Virginia, northern Virginia, and Arkansas.

Query: how is it that the Union has west Tennessee and not New Orleans?
Or is it that the Union had both, but returned only New Orleans?

The latter. I'm assuming the Union would return territory which is not contiguous to its own territory.

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

The CSA halts the Union invasion, and forces the Union to recognize CSA independence.

The terms of that recognition are key. The CSA will be very reluctant to accept a settlement which leaves significant parts of any Confederate state in Union hands.

The CSA may be forced to settle for a fait accompli regarding western Virginia, as most of that region was never under CSA control to begin with. Western Tennessee is unlikely, Arkansas almost impossble, except a few areas along the Mississippi, and northern Virginia flatly unacceptable.

The CSA may well not want to concede those lands, but the Union would be sitting on them. I'm basing this on previous threads where even though the Union is suing for peace, they're doing it from a position of strength whereas the South is facing imminent manpower and resource shortages. The war wouldn't be the OTL one as there is no Plan Anaconda or Atlanta campaign, but even if they were, I'm assuming the Union would have to concede the advances made in those campaigns since territorial integrity are pretty basic requirements for a nation-state. Assuming those campaigns don't take place, the Union would be waging a broad front attritional war. I'm assuming Union advances further into Arkansas and western Tennessee (and perhaps eastern Tennessee as well, giving the whole Tennessee to the Union).

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

It seems rather hard for this result to come afterwards.

Fair point, and I'll probably make delaying the Emancipation Proclamation a matter for another thread. Though the delay would only be a year or so.

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

A better question would be - how long before slavery is ended in these states. Because the odds are most of the slaves there would be transported to the CSA by their emigrating owners, or sold into the CSA.


The only areas of "Reconstruction" would be the area of Tennessee (which is very unlikely)



Which states? None of the Border States nor West Virginia were ever excluded from Congress.


Almost certainly. "Jim Crow" laws first appeared in the North.



There would be no Klan. The Klan was formed to strongarm control of the state governments in the Deep South and parts of the Upper South, where Republicans gained control of state and local governments, with black support. This threatened white supremacy.

These things wouldn't happen in captured border states as revenge for/an overreaction to the CSA seceding?

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

The Border States didn't have enough blacks for that. So no *Klan.



They dominate, perhaps less than OTL.



The Democrats recovered pretty well OTL. In 1874, IIRC, Democrats won a majority of US House seats outside the "Confederate" states.

I'm by no means an expert on the ACW, and with the rest of what you've said holding true, you've pretty much resolved my enquiries with these answers.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Rush Tarquin

The CSA may well not want to concede those lands, but the Union would be sitting on them. I'm basing this on previous threads where even though the Union is suing for peace, they're doing it from a position of strength whereas the South is facing imminent manpower and resource shortages.

If the Union is sitting on large parts of the Confederacy, why are they suing for peace? The only way I could see anything like that is if the Union is exhausted by several years of war and Lincoln is defeated for re-election by an outright Copperhead like Vallandigham.

These things wouldn't happen in captured border states

What "captured border states"? The Border States, by definition, remained loyal to the Union. They were never under CSA control, except in a few areas. They provided a few troops to the CSA, and far more to the Union, and were never excluded from Congress.

as revenge for/an overreaction to the CSA seceding?

Nowhere in the Border states were there enough black voters to threaten white supremacy. The Klan arose because in many parts of the Deep South, included some entire states, blacks could be a voting majority, or near to it. Thus white supremacy could be maintained only by force, and the Republican Party had to be suppressed.

In the Border States, and even in parts of the Upper South, where there was less or no danger of black supremacy, there was no need for Klan terrorism, and no great hostility to the Republican Party, which in those states did not always include blacks.

[Rush Tarquin]

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

If the Union is sitting on large parts of the Confederacy, why are they suing for peace? The only way I could see anything like that is if the Union is exhausted by several years of war and Lincoln is defeated for re-election by an outright Copperhead like Vallandigham.

We've had lengthy threads on whether the Union giving up if they've made gains is plausible or not. Since those arguments have typically ended with both sides tiring themselves out, I'd like to discuss consequences with the caveat that the plausibility is debatable.

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

What "captured border states"? The Border States, by definition, remained loyal to the Union. They were never under CSA control, except in a few areas. They provided a few troops to the CSA, and far more to the Union, and were never excluded from Congress.

Not OTL border states. Border states of this TL would refer to states which lie along the CSA border of this TL. This would include former CSA states: Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Virginia.

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

Nowhere in the Border states were there enough black voters to threaten white supremacy. The Klan arose because in many parts of the Deep South, included some entire states, blacks could be a voting majority, or near to it. Thus white supremacy could be maintained only by force, and the Republican Party had to be suppressed.

In the Border States, and even in parts of the Upper South, where there was less or no danger of black supremacy, there was no need for Klan terrorism, and no great hostility to the Republican Party, which in those states did not always include blacks.