Bandits and Generals - The 20th Century and Beyond

Perhaps the greatest example of foreshadowing in all of history is Hailey's Comet. It appeared 20 April 1910. Many Mexicans believed it was an omen of war, pestilence, and death to come. They didn't know how right they were. It would become an apt prediction of the century ahead. This is a history of that turbulent century all the way up to the modern day, made up of excerpts from the many books written on the subject.

Mexico at War - A Comprehensive History
In late 1910, Porfirio Diaz was proclaimed president of Mexico for his 8th term. His contender, Francisco Madero, was thrown in jail for being too popular. Within a few weeks, Madero escaped to Texas, where he called for a revolution against Diaz's regime. This is usually considered the start of the Mexican Revolution, a period of time in which many leaders would be overthrown through violent revolution. The revolution, followed by the 2nd Mexican American War, would become a sideshow to that Great War in Europe, but that doesn't mean it wasn't just as important in the long run.

In November of 1910, Pancho Villa captured Chihuahua, Madero came back from Texas, and the revolution really began to heat up. Pascual Orozoco launched his own rebellion at the same time. The rebellion continued throughout the year and well into the next, with Madero slowly gaining ground. Then, in May 1911, Orozoco and Villa demanded that several federal officers were killed. Madero refused, causing Villa and Orozoco to abandon him. This didn't turn out to matter, however, as Madero replaced Diaz as president of Mexico on 21 May 1911.

Revolution soon began anew, with Emiliano Zapata calling for revolt against Madero, and Orozoco bombing a train full of federal soldiers in early 1912. Orozoco's rebellion is quickly put down by Huerta. Months later, in February 1913, there is an attempted military coup by Felix Diaz, General Mondragon, and General Ruiz. It is put down by Huerta, who then uses the confusion to stage his own coup, overthrowing Madero and becoming leader of Mexico. Huerta orders Madero and a hundred of his followers murdered, in a brutal start to a short reign.


In March 1913, Alvaro Obregon rises up in yet another revolt and captures Nogales, Sonora. The Battle of Ojinaga on 10 January 1914 sees Huerta's forces soundly defeated and pushed out of Chihuahua. On the 15 of August, the last of Huerta's forces surrender and on 20 August 1914, Venustiano Carranza becomes president of Mexico.

World At War - The early 20th Century
Make no mistake, Mexico was hardly the only nation embroiled in conflict as the 1910s rolled on. In Asia, there was conflict and strife in China. The US continued its strategy of gunboat diplomacy, including the Tampico Affair, which was a warning of things to come. On 9 April 1914, 21 US sailors were detained by Mexican troops. This prompted the US occupation of Veracruz, which would last from April to November 1914. Tensions boiled over in Europe, when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, throwing Europe into a war that would prove to be far bigger and more deadly than any before it.

Pancho Villa's War​
Carranza's reign got off to a bad start. Within days of each other, both Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa refused to recognize him. The two would come to be strong allies in the coming years. Carranza sent Obregon to quell this rebellion, and on 6 April 1915 Villa was significantly defeated by Obregon at the Battle of Celya. Soon after, Villa was beat yet again at the Battle of Trinidad. However, Obregon lost his right arm to shellfire in this battle. The day after the battle, President of the US Woodrow Wilson threatened to intervene in the war if unrest continued.

However, soon after, Lusitania was sunk, and American eyes turned towards Europe. That would prove not to matter in the long run, but in the short run it may perhaps have set the coming war back a year or so. The US soon cut off its arms supplies to Villa, angering him. When forces under Villa's command attacked a train near the border and killed 16 Americans, tensions began to heat up. On the 9 March 1916, Villa raided the town of Columbus, New Mexico. In a short, sharp battle, 18 Americans and around 100 Villistas were killed.

Enraged, Wilson sent Major John J Pershing and around 4800 American troops into Mexico to track down and kill Villa. This would soon spiral into a war of large proportions, but of course no one knew that at the time. The expedition started off well, with Colonel George A Dodd routing Villista forces all over the place. However, on the 5 May 1916, several troopers of the 11th cavalry and a detachment of Apache Scouts were ambushed by unknown forces, with only a couple scouts surviving. Those unknown forces are now thought to be a band of rebels led by Julio Acosta.

Only days later, a second disaster for the expedition occurred. Lieutenant George S. Patton came across the ranch of Julio Cardenas, near Rubio. With 15 men and 3 armored cars he led the first armored attack in US history, and shot 3 men himself. However, unbeknownst to him, the rebels led by Julio Acosta happened to be nearby. Upon hearing gunfire, they advance on the ranch, ambushing Patton and his troops as they clear out the ranch. Patton's group is soon overwhelmed and wiped out with only one survivor, who was able to escape on a horse in the confusion. For his actions that day, Lieutenant Patton won a posthumous Medal of Honor, and would be remembered as an American hero.

The Villistas, meanwhile, take the armored cars and move out. They set a trap for the US 7th cavalry, led by Colonel Dodd himself. A survivor, Jack Cypress, told his story in the book Mexico: A Land out of Hell :

"We chased the Mexican along, and as had happened several times previously, they ran before us. We led them like sheep to the slaughter, or so we thought. Never did it occur to us that perhaps we were the ones being led, perhaps we would run into something we should have avoided. As we rounded a corner into a ravine, we were subjected to withering fire from the flanks and front. That was when we heard the chattering sound that would come to appear in many a veteran's nightmares, the sound of machine guns ahead. They worked a fearful slaughter upon our men. Never shall I forget the terrible sounds of screaming men and horses as I fled..."

Only 124 of the original 300 mean were able to escape. When news of the disaster reached the US, the public was understandably outraged. How could such a tragedy befall our troops? How did so many young Americans die? We aren't even at war! All of these could be heard on the streets and seen in newspaper editorials. To top it all off, 1916 was an election year....
 
Very cool spin on the Mexican Revolution. I like how it's gotten slightly out of hand :)

We see a lot on the news about how revolutions and civil wars spill over the borders (Syrian civil war in Turkey and Lebanon, for instance), and I was wondering what might happen if something similar to that occurred near the US, so I researched into it a little bit and found the Pancho Villa expedition. I wondered how a very imperialist (see Banana Wars) US might handle the situation and bam, a timeline was born.
 
1916 - The Critical Election​
In May 1916, the US was hit with major defeats in Mexico, the biggest one being the Dodd massacre. Rumors were circulating and people were understandably outraged. Some of the blame fell on Wilson, some on Pershing, and some on Dodd. Only one thing seemed to be certain, the US people wanted revenge. In hindsight, its hardly surprising Wilson seized upon this to solidify his position, even if the war would later actually be seen as a bad thing of his administration, and would lead to the loss of the house to the Republicans in 1918, which would keep the US out of the League of Nations Wilson envisioned and attempted to set up after the end of the Great War. But no one knew this at the time, and Wilson kept his eyes fixated on Mexico, despite the fact that some prominent politicians such as Theodore Roosevelt favored joining the war in Europe on the side of the Triple Entente. But their cries fell on deaf ears and were drowned out by the war drums beating ever faster on the US-Mexico border. Wilson ordered the Pershing Expedition to pursue and kill the Mexican war hero Pancho Villa and his troops. Carranza was becoming tense as reinforcements were sent to the American Army operating within his borders. Attempts to reconcile with the American government were shot down as Wilson followed the people's wishes and inched ever closer to war.

Pancho Villa's War
Villa again fought US troops to a standstill outside of Ojinaga after the expedition began receiving reinforcements from the US, killing or wounding another 70 Americans. The border was pretty much in a state of war by this point, with constant skirmishing all along it. Only two days after that battle Villa took nearly 500 troops to attack the town of Presidio, Texas, along with his 3 armored cars, all of which would be destroyed in the raid. He killed 24 American citizens and 37 garrison troops, losing around 100 troops in return. The famous image of armored cars shooting up buildings in the town appeared all over newspapers in the coming days.

Four days after the raid, angry US cavalry forces mistook federal General Felix Gomez's forces for Villistas and attack them. 72 Mexican federals are killed, along with 54 American troops. Felix Gomez himself is wounded. Before now there had only been battles and skirmishes between Villista forces and American forces. This was the first time federal troops and American troops came into contact and skirmished with each other. Carranza, upon learning of this, is famously reported to have said, "The gears of war are now unstoppable".
 
We see a lot on the news about how revolutions and civil wars spill over the borders (Syrian civil war in Turkey and Lebanon, for instance), and I was wondering what might happen if something similar to that occurred near the US, so I researched into it a little bit and found the Pancho Villa expedition. I wondered how a very imperialist (see Banana Wars) US might handle the situation and bam, a timeline was born.

Hmm a kind of predicatable outcome in the long run, but you've gotten me intrigued. Please continue :)
 
The Diplomacy War
Richard von Kuhlmann would never have come to power if not for the very mysterious death of Arthur Zimmerman in mid 1916. No one ever found out exactly what happened, and the death was very hush hush. It appears he was just found dead in his bedroom one day, afflicted with symptoms of a mysterious disease now known as encephalitis lethargica, which would sweep the world along with the Spanish influenza in the late 10's and early 20's. Despite his rather mysterious rise to power however, Kuhlmann would go on to become a very important figure in German history. Some historians argue that without his famous Kuhlmann telegram the US may have turned his eyes back to Europe, but others feel America was already too focused on Mexico. Regardless, it certainly didn't hurt Germany, and was a very smart political move. The Kuhlmann telegram was actually not a telegram at all, but rather an open diplomatic invitation to both Mexico and the US for Germany to help mediate the heated border conflict between the two. Whether Germany was actually in the position to do this is up to debate, but that didn't end up mattering anyways. The only thing the Kuhlmann telegram succeeded in doing was to assure the American people Germany was not interested in war with them. Indeed, the German government would later go on to warn the Americans about their renewal of unrestricted submarine warfare. The content of the telegram suggested that Mexico call all troops out of the area and order federal troops to actually help Pershing (now Dodd's) expedition in finding Villa. Carranza, however, decided to publicly reject the proposal and make a fiery speech inflaming the Mexican populace against the US. Upon hearing of this, German arms deals in the area, of which there were many, were significantly reduced. The US was grateful for what they perceived to be German support of them. It would foreshadow German-US relations to come.
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American Empire - The Banana Wars
While the US was bogged down on the border with Mexico, there were several occupations and interventions already being conducted by them. The US had created the Panama Canal zone only a decade earlier, and was seeking to solidify its position in the region, perhaps one of the reasons for its intervention in Mexico in the first place. Nicaragua had been occupied in 1912 in response to a rebellion which was attacking US interests, and in 1916 Nicaragua would end up assuming a quasi-protectorate status under the terms of the Chamerro-Bryan treaty. In July 1915, US troops had landed in Haiti, beginning another US occupation. That had been kicked off by another revolution which again had been attacking the interests of US companies in the area. The people of the US were told it was a "mission to reestablish peace and order in the nation". Fighting against the rebels would continue throughout 1915. Honduras saw insertion of American troops in both 1912 and 1919, to ensure stability in the Panama region and protect the interests of various American companies, a theme which seemed to permeate throughout the Banana Wars. The American operated United Fruit Company has been compared, perhaps unfairly, to the British East India Trading Company. In 1916, US forces took control of the Dominican Republic and imposed a military government, which was opposed by the Dominican people.
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Mexico at War - A History​
In early July 1916, around 300 Mexicans opened fire on Pershing's forces near modern day La Cuesta. They sustained 89 casualties, inflicting around 60 on the US troops, including hitting Pershing himself. Colonel Dodd was forced to take overall command of the mission, which is perhaps why a lot of the blame for the botched expedition would end up landing on him. Luckily, Dodd would redeem himself in the upcoming war. Only a few days after the battle, and the day after Carranza's inflammatory speech that was in response to the Kuhlmann telegram, Carranza notified John Lind, Wilson's personal envoy to Mexico, that all US troops must be pulled out of Mexico within the month, or war would be inevitable. Despite the already escalating battles between US and Mexican federal forces, Wilson reportedly did not take the threat seriously. Former US president Teddy Roosevelt would later jokingly call the war in Mexico a "game of chicken gone horribly wrong". It would be particularly costly when the two nations finally collided.
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1916 - The Critical Election
In 1916, President of the United States Woodrow Wilson was at a crossroads. The Mexican government had just notified him to pull all troops out of Mexico. However, the passion of the American populace was aimed at Mexico, and more specifically Pancho Villa. They still wanted his head, and Wilson knew that giving it to them would ensure his reelection. In hindsight, the choice appears easy, but Wilson had the worry of war on his shoulders. Were he to get the US into a long and drawn out war, he knew history would not judge him kindly. Regardless of that however, Wilson decided to order the occupation of large towns on the US-Mexico border to, "preserve peace and tranquility for our citizens who live near the area of conflict, and bring an end to the intolerable turmoil occurring in our neighbor in the South." Despite all these speeches and well meant words, most people knew that this was an occupation. That thought was only reinforced when US troops were fired at in the streets of many towns, prompting retaliations which Wilson quickly ordered a stop to. Perhaps Wilson still thought to avoid war by making a show of force against Mexico, but if he did he was sadly mistaken.

Emiliano Zapata - An unlikely leader
On 1 August 1916, while the US was beginning occupations of border towns and the conflict had become a war in all but name, Carranza decided to ask for a meeting with Zapata. Zapata, intrigued, accepted. Their discussion consisted of plans for a possible ceasefire so that the two sides could join together to fight off the northern imperialists. Zapata agreed on the condition that one of his allies, Pancho Villa, would never be given up to the Americans, even in defeat or to end the war. Carranza decided to accept, knowing he couldn't fight both the Americans and his own countrymen at the same time. When the alliance was announced, church bells rang out across the country as people rejoiced at the realization that there would be no more civil war, not realizing in turn this was only because a much bigger and more destructive war was on the horizon. And so a shortlived alliance was born, one that would be packed with violence, betrayal, and war.
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General Emiliano Zapata

Pancho Villa's War
After the announcement of an alliance between Carranza and Zapata got to them, Pancho Villa and Felix Gomez found themselves on the same side. They quickly linked up to discuss tactics, being the only major leaders in the area. Gomez decided to take around 700 of his infantry and march on Juarez. Villa, meanwhile, was supposed to take 400 of his cavalry and raid American supply lines around El Paso. They hoped to dislodge American troops from Juarez, which would be a strategic victory as well as much larger boost for morale, in the troops and at home.

While that happened, tensions rose in town of Juarez itself, which was under US occupation. People took potshots at US troops as the troops marched threw the streets, and no quarter was wasted on US soldiers who found themselves alone or in pairs in the dark street at night. Villa sent some troops, disguised as civilians, into the towns to help stir up even more trouble for the Americans. Already the beginnings of a guerrilla resistance in the occupied territory was forming. Perhaps this was fueled by the American's hostile treatment of Mexican citizens as an occupied people, and their harsh reprisals for Americans found mutilated and killed in the most horrible ways. The situation was similar in many other towns up and down the border, prompting a general order for troops to stay pretty much to themselves.

One thing the US didn't expect however was the large but peaceful protests by Mexican-Americans, who were already discriminated against. Many of these Mexicans were first generation immigrants, and saw the war as simply the US taking a chance to exploit yet another war torn and tumultuous country's natural resources. The local governments allowed the protests, which also included white Americans protesting the war. The protests were generally fairly small, as people in the area still remembered Villa's raids of the preceding months. It heartened the Mexican troops and guerrilla fighters to know that they had supporters on the Northern side of the border as well.

Only one of these protests became violent, and that was hardly the fault of the protesters. US troops in El Paso were uneasy, both because of the stories coming out of Juarez and Pancho Villa's raiding parties. Over 200 people congregated in the town for a protest march, marching straight towards the barracks where they sat outside and yelled and chanted, watched over by nervous soldiers. Its unknown who fired the first shot, but someone did. It became a slaughter as American soldiers trained their rifles on the crowd and fired. 48 Mexican Americans were killed and dozens more injured. This caused rioting all around the area in protest, allowing Villa's troopers to cause yet more damage and escape unharmed as US troops had to hold down their own town. Luckily, the riots were quelled by the end of the week, but they had tied down troops that should have been in Juarez and fueled the near hatred of Americans by Mexicans across Mexico.

While the riots were occurring, Gomez took around a thousand of his troops to liberate Juarez, where the American troops didn't have a chance. There were only around four hundred of them, and although they fought a brave rearguard action over two hundred were killed or wounded. The rest escaped back to El Paso, just barely. The US followed up with a small counterattack, driving the Mexicans out of the town with heavy casualties. Brutal street to street fighting had occurred as Mexican soldiers and civilians alike fought side by side from house to house until the town was wrecked. Juarez was the first Mexican town to really be seriously damaged by the war, but it certainly wouldn't be the last. Just after the victory at Juarez and with the border in a state of open conflict, President of Mexico Venustiano Carranza made an official declaration of war against the United States of America. On 23 August 1916, the Second Mexican American War officially began.

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Mexican Sharpshooters in the ruins of a building in Juarez
 
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The Invasion: September 1916 - August 1917​
On 10 September 1916, thousands of US infantry began streaming across the border with Mexico, continuing the occupation of border towns and securing strategic river crossings, bridges, and military objectives such as armories and barracks in those border towns. Small detachments of Mexican soldiers attempted to hold some of the crossings over the Rio Grande but were beaten back as the crossings were taken. Some bridges were burned or blown up using TNT, but again most were taken intact. These relatively small skirmishes began what would become one of the greatest wars the North American contact has ever seen, second in casualties only to the American Civil War decades earlier. While that was occurring, around ten thousand marines and army soldiers embarked on ships along the East Coast, and began sailing down to Veracruz, the Mexican coastal province nearest to Mexico City.

The battle for Veracruz itself was fairly small, as Mexican reinforcements had not yet arrived in the city, instead many were going north to join the fight against the invasions across the Rio Grande. The battle opened with a prolonged shore bombardment by the US fleet, right over the heads of Americans as they landed. The troops quickly fought their way into the city. Many Mexicans holed up in the prison San Juan de Ulúa, a former military fort with thick walls. The US troops were forced to aim much of their bombardment at this fort and Baluarte de Santiago (Santiago Bastion), both of which were reduced to rubble by the heavy bombardment from US guns. Despite this, the troops in those forts fought on in the rubble, delaying the US advance just enough for many of their comrades to escape the city and set up defenses. This would be the last invasion of Veracruz, gaining it its fifth and final title of "heroic city" (the fourth being earned just two years before during the US occupation).

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US ships at Veracruz

The real battle began when US troops, who had spent time to reorganize within the city, left and began to try and push their way to Mexico City, hoping to end the war quickly, install a friendly government, and leave. This objective, of course, was soon to prove quite impossible under the circumstances, and would only lead to the unnecessary deaths of many US and Mexican troops. When the US troops left the city, they were heavily harassed by Mexican guerrillas and little detachments of Mexican infantry who had escaped the city. Meanwhile, the Mexican government hastily diverted troops there to hold the Americans. The Veracruz offensive quickly began to ground to a halt, as the small US military would find a war in this era required a larger and more advanced army. Interestingly to the people at the time, planes took on an important role in the advance, helping to notify ground troops of Mexican defenses ahead and even strafing enemy positions at some points, or bombing them by dropping makeshift explosives over the side of the aircraft. The usefulness of these aircraft would soon come to the notice of high ranking US officials and new types would soon be developed, designed with specific roles such as fighting other aircraft or bombing the ground in mind.

Despite the slowing of operations in Veracruz, the US showed no intention of rethinking its strategy of taking large amounts of land very fast. The week after the Veracruz landings, another ten thousand US infantry stormed and captured Nogales, a town well in the north that had previously been fought over during the Mexican Revolution, which had basically ended now that the entire nation was focused on the American attacks in the north. The Mexican garrison there was small, only a couple hundred men, and surrendered with only a very small fight put up, killing only 12 Americans. Only a few days after that a similarly small garrison was overrun at Hermosillo, and at the exact same time a force of 1,500 US cavalry raided down the Baja Peninsula. The raid was calculated to distract Mexican troops from the much more important battles happening in the North and in Veracruz, as well as disrupting Mexican operations and finally, giving the newspapers at home something good to report.

In their first objective, the American cavalry succeeded as Pancho Villa himself, as well as four thousand Mexican cavalry went into Baja after the Americans. In the second, they would partly succeed, but it turns out cavalry aren't as important in modern war as people seemed to think. During the raid into Baja, six thousand US infantry led by newly promoted Brigadier General George A. Dodd captured the town of Sonora, and then moved on to reinforce the US troops at Nogales. The fighting in Baja would become the first real fighting of the war that resulted in large amounts of casualties, although in the end it wouldn't be very important in the grand scheme of things. Of course, no one quite expected the stunning results of the small raid into Baja, which would have a large effect on the 1916 election.

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Villa's cavalry advancing into Baja in pursuit
 
Just a quick update, I'll try and update more frequently but I make no promises, school makes things hard to write and I always want to have one or two updates written ahead of time, so that when I type up the final product I can add in little things here and there that aren't in what I originally wrote. Enjoy!
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Military Disasters of the 20th Century​
While the US cavalry advanced down the Baja peninsula, south of California, preparations were made for its defense. Small numbers of militia were called up and supplied with ammo to try and beat the Americans in the area. Villa chased the American troops along at his own space, skirmishing with their rear guard, keeping them cut off from their own country, and generally making a nuisance of themselves. For the Americans part, they destroyed valuable military targets and requisitioned supplies for themselves, tearing up any vital infrastructure and burning one army barracks they came across. It was mainly a guerrilla war for both sides, as neither came into much contact with the other. Around 1000 militia ended up being mustered and sent to San Ignacio, a town in the very north of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, a few hundred miles from the border with California, and around halfway down the Baja Peninsula.

On the 25 October 1916, over a month after the US cavalry had gone across the border, they were forced to attack San Ignacio, which they had been attempting to avoid. However, they now needed to assault it both to open a path to go forward and for supplies. The American troopers dismounted for battle, many armed with long range accurate rifles. The Mexicans, on the other hand, are both outnumbered and outgunned, with many of the militia carrying outdated weapons. However, fortune would smile on the Mexicans this day, as a heavy fog descended over the battlefield at dawn. The American commander did not want to risk his troops in an attack until the fog lifted, as he was afraid of his troops being disorganized and cut off from each other in the fog.

The fog gave Villa time to send forward cavalry scouts, both to link up with the militia and watch the US cavalry's moves. It wasn't until late in the morning, around 10am, that the fog finally lifted. Villa was already moving towards the American troops, and when his scouts reported the fog had lifted he had his cavalry move even faster. Meanwhile, in San Ignacio, what would be called the "Mexican Alamo" was beginning, with dismounted US cavalry slaughtering many of the militia and moving into the town, forcing many Mexicans to hole up in a mansion near the center of town, where they bravely held out for nearly an hour and gave Pancho Villa and his large force of nearly four thousand cavalry to arrive. The Americans were already tired, running out of ammo, and depleted from the battle as Villa sent his own dismounted cavalry into their backs.

Seeing Villa's cavalry begin their attack, the US troops attempted to disengage, but quickly fell apart and were routed. Throughout the rest of the day Villa's troopers would be cleaning up the remaining pockets of resistance, but by dusk of the 25th, the entire American force of 1,500 cavalry would have for all intents and purposes ceased to exist. Throughout the rest of the war however, small units of 10 cavalry here, 5 there, and 20 somewhere else would be raiding small farms and towns, continuing their own little guerrilla resistance deep within Mexican territory.

The battle itself would solidify Villa's position as a brilliant commander and hero of the Mexican people, and would lead to his appointment to the much larger forces that were being gathered across Mexico for what people were realizing would be a long and drawn out war. Although relatively unimportant, it would send much larger shockwaves across the US, as people's confidence was severely shaken by the disaster. Morale dropped when the reports came in of the battle, and the casualty reports were long as everyone in the small force was feared dead or captured. With the US 1916 presidential elections so close, this was a very bad thing, and put fear into the hearts of Woodrow Wilson and other democrats. Ironically, in the long run this would actually cause a morale boost when people heard about the small guerrilla movements in Baja, and when those American guerrillas returned home for a triumphant parade when they were rescued. Of course, that was long after the election.

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American Cavalry Trooper some time before the battle at San Ignacio
 
Be interesting to see what happens once the US gets mobilized and the heavy stuff start's coming into play

Hmm, is Mexico producing any nitrates at the time, they aren't producing any now as far as I know, has that changed?

Because if not they are gonna run out of ammo real quick once the heavy fighting starts, as the allies are buying all the nitrates and ammo on the market, and even when they run out of money the USN is effectively unchallengeable and US control over Guatemala via UFC is pretty complete and the US has enough influence to keep anything from being shipped via Belize
 
Hmm, is Mexico producing any nitrates at the time, they aren't producing any now as far as I know, has that changed?

Because if not they are gonna run out of ammo real quick once the heavy fighting starts, as the allies are buying all the nitrates and ammo on the market, and even when they run out of money the USN is effectively unchallengeable and US control over Guatemala via UFC is pretty complete and the US has enough influence to keep anything from being shipped via Belize
There won't be too many major battles, and there are tons of weapon and ammo laying around from their little revolution :p

So the ammo problem won't be too much of a problem in a war that will last less than a year. But yes, the Mexicans will be having supply problems throughout the war in all manner of things, not just ammo. No tanks for them or anything crazy :D
 
1916 - The Critical Election
Perhaps we haven't given much attention to Allan L. Benson and his running mate George Ross Kirkpatrick, who, although not winning, made the best showing for a socialist candidate in American history. The socialist party had made their platform one of peace, and Benson followed the platform to the letter. If elected, he promised to make a reasonable peace with Mexico, reminding some of the peace candidates in 1864, during the American Civil War. In the West and Southwest, where the Mexican revolution had been spilling across the borders for some time, and where the war was most hard hitting and relevant to them, the people were very united in wanting war with Mexico to continue and be won, and as a result Benson and Kirkpatrick got barely any notice in the West and Southwest. In the Northeast however, as well as the Midwest, things were different. The people had not been affected by the Mexican raids like the Westerners had been, and many felt that the US should not be involving itself in Mexico.

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Allan L. Benson

This feeling was exasperated by the news that 1500 US cavalry bad been wiped out in a little town that not many people in America had ever heard of, San Ignacio. Despite the relative insignificance of the defeat (where a large US raiding force had been wiped out by Mexican cavalry and militia deep within Baja California), it was a very large hit to US morale and a large boost to Mexican morale, showing that the invincible Americans really could be defeated. Following the defeat, both the Republican candidate (Charles Evans Hughes) and the Socialist Candidate (Allan L. Benson) campaigned heavily in the North, trying to win over the hearts and minds of people who thought the war was going badly. The Republicans were claiming that if they were put into power, they would run the war much better than the way the Democrats currently were, playing off people's fears about the defeat and stalemate in Mexico. The Democrats pointed to all their successes and pointed out that no war can be won without some defeats, unfortunately. Hughes also attacked Wilson over his "pro labor" legislation, which Wilson had been passing throughout his term.

Finally around came 7 November 1916 and with it came election day. The results were unclear at first and would take several days to sort out, although it was quickly quite clear that neither Frank Hanly (Prohibition) or Benson (Socialist) had won. That left it down to Wilson and Hughes, in what would be quite a close election. Wilson would easily carry the deep south beating Hughes by nearly 70% in Georgia and nearly 90% in Mississippi, which were massive margins. He beat Hughes in most of the deep south also by large margins, but not as large as in those two states. The only state in the South that Hughes won was West Virginia. In California, Wilson barely won, carrying it by only a couple percentage points. Wilson won Ohio by a similarly small margin, along with Washington. Wilson, however, did not win even one New England state, although he did get higher percentages in New England than Hughes got in the deep South. The race in the Midwest was the closest between the two, with states being rather evenly split.

As for the two other major parties, Prohibition and Socialist, Frank Hanly would only get over 5% of the vote in one state, which was Florida. Benson, on the other hand, made a much better showing, winning just over a million votes. Most notably he won almost 20% in Oklahoma, and around 10% in both Minnesota and Wisconsin, with percentages hovering around 5% in most of New England, and barely any percentage of the vote in the South or Southwest. The results of the 1916 US presidential election showed that there was indeed dissent against the war, although Democrats would still hold control of the House and the Senate. Below are the election results

1916 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote
Woodrow Wilson/Thomas R. Marshall (Democrats) - 47.5%
Charles Evans Hughes/Charles W. Fairbanks (Republicans) - 46.1%
Allan L. Benson/George Ross Kirkpatrick (Socialists) - 5.4%
Frank Hanly/Ira Landrith (Prohibitionists) - 0.6%

1916 US Presidential Election - Electoral Vote
Woodrow Wilson/Thomas R. Marshall (Democrats) - 273
Charles Evans Hughes/Charles W. Fairbanks (Republicans) - 258
Allan L. Benson/George Ross Kirkpatrick (Socialists) - 0
Frank Hanly/Ira Landrith (Prohibitionists) - 0



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1916 Electoral Vote



1916 US Senate
Democrats - 55 seats
Republicans - 41 seats

1916 US House of Representatives
Democrats - 219 seats
Republicans - 210 seats
Progressives - 3 seats
Socialists - 1 seat
Prohibitionists - 1 seat
Independents - 1 seat​
 
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