What the title says. I've always felt such sympathy for Mary I because of how her life ended up. Losing her mother and being tossed aside by her father, fighting with both her siblings later in life and finally being vilified throughout history for a few bad choices. So lets say Edward VI died in early 1549. That would be before the book of common prayer was introduced so when Mary ascended the throne there would be less religious infighting. Also she would be 33 instead of 37 when she came to the throne, thus making it more likely that she would have children. So what would be the longer term ramifications of Edward Vi dieing earlier? Would England still be Catholic? Would Scotland stay independent? Would England still become a great empire?
WI: Edward VI dies earlier
- Thread starter Emperor Constantine
- Start date
Even at 33, I doubt Mary could have children.. although she came to the throne IOTL at 37 and was quite old (at the time) for marriage and children, it wasn't impossible. It was simply the ovarian cancer that killed her. We can never pinpoint when exactly it developed, but I wouldn't be surprised if she was already in the early stages in 1549.
There is also the issue that Mary was plagued with gynecological problems throughout of her life, such as irregular periods and even issues with fluid being retained that caused great physical pain. Given her assortment of gynecological problems in her later life, children seem quite unlikely IMO.
As for her succession, I could imagine some worry, seeing her succeed in 1549, barely two years after her father's death, with her brother's short reign cosigned to the dustbin. Mary has one advantage of succeeding at this time, as the Edwardian government had not yet began to radicalize things, so she will inherit a church still close to the Henrican Acts and more conservative. The faith of the English is still muddled, but not muddled between Catholics, Henrican Anglicans, and those who favored Edwards reforms. In this scenario, Mary is definitely in a better position, as while the common people are "confused," the Henrican Establishment is still strong and returning to Rome is not as farfetched. There will be no Jane Grey; I forsee Mary having no problems with her ascension.
Still, there would still be opposition from those who have no desire to return to Rome. Radical religious ideas have still been introduced from abroad, whose fans could be stroked if Mary is particularly ruthless in attempting to restore England to Rome. In an interesting twist, it is Elizabeth who these Protestants might look too as their figurehead.
Marriage is also an interesting twist. In 1549, Philip II is of course unmarried, his wife having died in 1545. So they might well marry, as Mary was slavishly dependent upon him and he would take advantage of it. There are other options, such as a Portuguese Infante, like Dom Luis, the Duke of Beja. As I said earlier, Mary may still be suffering some early stage ovarian cancer, so children may be impossible, no matter who she marries (which she will -- unlikely Elizabeth, she saw a desire to marry and definitely would).
Domestically, Mary may have a better reign with more time to handle things. She'll be inheriting a war in Scotland (the "Rough Wooing") which she'll most certainly try to end ASAP... unless she is urged on by the Emperor to continue with Spanish aid, ostensibly to remove the French from Scotland. It's more likely that Emperor Charles mediates to end the conflicts. This gives Mary a chance to focus on restoring the economy. IOTL, this was one of her many achievements, seeking out new ports, working on strengthening the pound, ect, yet a achievement that English was able to take as her own as the economy recovered on her reign.
Other issues include the monastatic lands, the more recent Chanteries Dissolutions (which effectively provided education for poor children and in rural areas), the constant devaluation of the pound, and relations with France.
There is also the issue that Mary was plagued with gynecological problems throughout of her life, such as irregular periods and even issues with fluid being retained that caused great physical pain. Given her assortment of gynecological problems in her later life, children seem quite unlikely IMO.
As for her succession, I could imagine some worry, seeing her succeed in 1549, barely two years after her father's death, with her brother's short reign cosigned to the dustbin. Mary has one advantage of succeeding at this time, as the Edwardian government had not yet began to radicalize things, so she will inherit a church still close to the Henrican Acts and more conservative. The faith of the English is still muddled, but not muddled between Catholics, Henrican Anglicans, and those who favored Edwards reforms. In this scenario, Mary is definitely in a better position, as while the common people are "confused," the Henrican Establishment is still strong and returning to Rome is not as farfetched. There will be no Jane Grey; I forsee Mary having no problems with her ascension.
Still, there would still be opposition from those who have no desire to return to Rome. Radical religious ideas have still been introduced from abroad, whose fans could be stroked if Mary is particularly ruthless in attempting to restore England to Rome. In an interesting twist, it is Elizabeth who these Protestants might look too as their figurehead.
Marriage is also an interesting twist. In 1549, Philip II is of course unmarried, his wife having died in 1545. So they might well marry, as Mary was slavishly dependent upon him and he would take advantage of it. There are other options, such as a Portuguese Infante, like Dom Luis, the Duke of Beja. As I said earlier, Mary may still be suffering some early stage ovarian cancer, so children may be impossible, no matter who she marries (which she will -- unlikely Elizabeth, she saw a desire to marry and definitely would).
Domestically, Mary may have a better reign with more time to handle things. She'll be inheriting a war in Scotland (the "Rough Wooing") which she'll most certainly try to end ASAP... unless she is urged on by the Emperor to continue with Spanish aid, ostensibly to remove the French from Scotland. It's more likely that Emperor Charles mediates to end the conflicts. This gives Mary a chance to focus on restoring the economy. IOTL, this was one of her many achievements, seeking out new ports, working on strengthening the pound, ect, yet a achievement that English was able to take as her own as the economy recovered on her reign.
Other issues include the monastatic lands, the more recent Chanteries Dissolutions (which effectively provided education for poor children and in rural areas), the constant devaluation of the pound, and relations with France.
U bring up very good points. However considering the era in which she lived, is it realistic to think she developed cancer in 1549 and lived another 9 years? I admit I don't know much about cancer in the Renaissance era but most women with breast cancer only lived 2 maybe 3 years so 9 seems like a long time. So assuming she hasn't developed cancer yet then there is a fairly strong possibility that she could have at least one child,taking into account her irregular periods. Also, if the radical religious reform hasn't started yet then would the protestants really be in a position to revolt against her? I mean in OTL most of the revolts form that era were committed by Catholics. The only revolt against Mary I in her OTL reign was about her upcoming marriage to Prince Philip of Spain. The question is without the Edwardian reforms would Mary be as radical in returning the Anglican Church to Roman allegiance as she was in OTL. Plus without the Edwardian reforms she wouldn't have a religious cold war with her brother, thus driving her to take refuge in her faith.
Now that Sounds really cool!
Unrealistic but really cool. The Valois dynasty would never let then be completely inclosed like that. I didn't think about Mary marring the Empeor. I still think the best choise would be either Infante Luis, Duke of Beja or perhaps a Scottish match or even a homegrown consort. I think there were some surviving descendents of the house of York.Now that Sounds really cool!
The Valois dynasty doesn't have much it can do to stop it. The English lords who do -not- want England to just be part of Charles's empire, on the other hand. . .
Well actually the french could do something about it considering that Mary of Scotland was in France at the time. She qas engaged to the dauphin at that point so scotland would still be in France's orbit. As for England, the revolts against royal decisions never succeded before,why would they now? In fact the English lords rose against Mary otl about her marriage to Philip and failed so i doubt they would succed and if she was marrying the emperor then it stands to reason that Charles would send troops from the netherlands if necessary.
Mary of Scotland being in France is irrelevant, because she's not the Mary who would be following Edward son of Henry (may shit be upon him).
As for succeeding or not - the point is that Mary is going to make enemies, and making enemies in exchange for Charles is not worth it for her (I'd argue Philip wasn't worth it, but at least she loved Philip OTL).
Policies that spark rebellion generally list rebellion as an undesirable consequence.
Now that Sounds really cool!
It's really not unrealistic. Mary's first choice as husband was Charles V; he was the one who indicated Philip in his stead. In this WI, Charles is younger, more inclined to remarry, and England stands to obtain the Low Countries without being subsumed into the Habsburg empire (which would be the inheritance of Philip and his descendants).
By this point Mary Stuart is already away in France, but it's worthwhile to remember that OTL after her first husband died she looked to Spain for a husband (Don Carlos). Assuming François dies young here too, she could conceivably find in Philip the strong-hand she so desperately need. Marriage to Philip would bring her foreign support against her internal and external enemies and secure for her (and consequently, for the Habsburg cause) the English succession (failing any issue of Mary Tudor's own). Elizabeth Tudor would be nothing more than a dynastic anomaly, most likely shuttered away somewhere in the country, or whisked abroad to marry Savoy or some other Imperial lackey.
She loved Charles - she transferred her life-long affections to Philip after Philip emerged as her suitor and savior. Charles would be a more amenable match than Philip, since England could look forward to continued independence. Charles was popular and well-liked among the English nobility, who had seen him and his parents in past visits to the court of Henry VIII. I don't think anyone would rebel against Mary because she got married - the idea of an unmarried female monarch was inconceivable to her contemporaries - and the Spanish alliance was the default of English foreign policy.
The problem is more her getting married and dragging England into the Habsburg orbit.
Spanish alliance is one thing. Spanish subjugation is another.
It might work better with Charles personally and with the idea that it won't mean England being absorbed (as Philip is Charles's heir), but I can't see it being taken with overwhelming enthusiasm unless it's handled well, either.
Charles isn't that much younger and probably still disinclined to marry. Given the problems of ruling his empire and his constant globetrotting, I doubt he marries Mary even in this scenario. He'll still offer Philip. Even while he a few years younger, he has already began to suffer from gout and the weight of his empire is beginning to weigh upon him, as shown in the performance of his forces in the most recent Italian War.
After all, he'll shortly be considering retirement to Spain, and it's not as if the English would stand for their Queen going following them. And he's certainly not going to abdicate and stay in England. The Spanish Prince is much preferred, as he will be able to stay in England for long amounts of time. Just because Mary is heavily pro-Spanish does not mean the entire kingdom and council will fall in line. Many Catholics were opposed to the match and some advocated the Earl of Devon, who may make a viable marriage partner too, if he doesn't put his foot in his mouth. The English would certainly prefer him, as an Englishmen and with Plantagenet blood to boot.
Sorry, but I don't see the Emperor happening. For one, he's not even going to suggest himself. Even if he did, I can't see the English accepting it. They threw enough of a fit over Philip. Why would Mary waste all of her political capital on marrying the Emperor? Even if she loved him (which I find doubtful; they were engaged when she was a little girl and she spent the rest of her life as part of various other marriage matches, none fulfilled--I'd see him more as a friend than anything), Mary isn't stupid and knows she is a Queen first and foremost. She has to be practical.
The Spanish alliance was also far from a default. Henry VIII spent his reign cultivating other ties. Of course, he was allied with the Emperor, but he was also at times allied with France and even sought out Protestant connections. While there's no doubt that Mary will be predisposed towards Spain, but that doesn't mean she has to be slavishly dependent upon them. In fact, Beja may make a better match in this scenario as he is a scion of the house of Aviz, the royal family of Portugal; they're Catholic, have Habsburg connections, but won't drag England into foreign conflicts. It may also be a chance for the English to build further trading connections, which would be a bonus too. I suppose you could mull over marriage to one of Ferdinand I's sons too, but IMO they're way too young.
After all, he'll shortly be considering retirement to Spain, and it's not as if the English would stand for their Queen going following them. And he's certainly not going to abdicate and stay in England. The Spanish Prince is much preferred, as he will be able to stay in England for long amounts of time. Just because Mary is heavily pro-Spanish does not mean the entire kingdom and council will fall in line. Many Catholics were opposed to the match and some advocated the Earl of Devon, who may make a viable marriage partner too, if he doesn't put his foot in his mouth. The English would certainly prefer him, as an Englishmen and with Plantagenet blood to boot.
Sorry, but I don't see the Emperor happening. For one, he's not even going to suggest himself. Even if he did, I can't see the English accepting it. They threw enough of a fit over Philip. Why would Mary waste all of her political capital on marrying the Emperor? Even if she loved him (which I find doubtful; they were engaged when she was a little girl and she spent the rest of her life as part of various other marriage matches, none fulfilled--I'd see him more as a friend than anything), Mary isn't stupid and knows she is a Queen first and foremost. She has to be practical.
The Spanish alliance was also far from a default. Henry VIII spent his reign cultivating other ties. Of course, he was allied with the Emperor, but he was also at times allied with France and even sought out Protestant connections. While there's no doubt that Mary will be predisposed towards Spain, but that doesn't mean she has to be slavishly dependent upon them. In fact, Beja may make a better match in this scenario as he is a scion of the house of Aviz, the royal family of Portugal; they're Catholic, have Habsburg connections, but won't drag England into foreign conflicts. It may also be a chance for the English to build further trading connections, which would be a bonus too. I suppose you could mull over marriage to one of Ferdinand I's sons too, but IMO they're way too young.
I agree. Marrying the Emperor sounds good on paper but in practice it would be damaging for England. The Emperor is older and has health issues. There's no guarantee that he would be able to father another child, especially with Mary's own health problems. Second he wouldn't be able to stay in England full time and there is no way the English Nobility would allow their Queen to go off following her husband on the continent. Personally I think the Duke of Beja is the best choice, or a Scottish match, if someone was available. Also marrying the Duke of Beja would give the English Monarchs a claim to the Portuguese throne, and if King Sebastian and Cardinal-King Henry die on schedule,..... Anglo-Portuguese Empire anyone
???Edit: After going threw the Scottish line of Succession under Mary Queen of Scots early years I found a possible Scottish Match. James Hamilton, son of the 2nd Earl of Arran and next in line to the Scottish Throne after his father. He was born in 1532 so he would be 16. Pretty young but possible. It would give England a claim to Scotland and a way to threaten Henri of France. U know, if Scotland sides with France against England, Mary can invade Scotland and put her husband or father-in-law on the throne. After all the only other claim-it to the throne was in France.
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Assuming Mary dies as per OTL, without issue, does the fact she is Queen earlier give her greater ability to either deal with Elizabeth, or use her position to marry Elizabeth off to a good Catholic Prince?
If Mary dies without children and around the same time as OTL, then she'd have ruled for nine years. That should be enough time to either convince/bully Elizabeth into a marriage or to find another English royal catholic to succeed her. However if England stay's catholic during her entire reign, with no back and forth religious upheavals then Elizabeth would probably stay Catholic, at least in public, so Mary might not worry as much over the religious future of England.
I agree. Marrying the Emperor sounds good on paper but in practice it would be damaging for England. The Emperor is older and has health issues. There's no guarantee that he would be able to father another child, especially with Mary's own health problems. Second he wouldn't be able to stay in England full time and there is no way the English Nobility would allow their Queen to go off following her husband on the continent. Personally I think the Duke of Beja is the best choice, or a Scottish match, if someone was available. Also marrying the Duke of Beja would give the English Monarchs a claim to the Portuguese throne, and if King Sebastian and Cardinal-King Henry die on schedule,..... Anglo-Portuguese Empire anyone
Edit: After going threw the Scottish line of Succession under Mary Queen of Scots early years I found a possible Scottish Match. James Hamilton, son of the 2nd Earl of Arran and next in line to the Scottish Throne after his father. He was born in 1532 so he would be 16. Pretty young but possible. It would give England a claim to Scotland and a way to threaten Henri of France. U know, if Scotland sides with France against England, Mary can invade Scotland and put her husband or father-in-law on the throne. After all the only other claim-it to the throne was in France.
James Hamilton's father was a notorious schemer, his actually wanted to have his son marry the Queen of Scots. Of course this was in 1543, and by the time of the POD she was in France. He supposedly had eyes on the lady Elizabeth, too. The big issue though is that his father was a big schemer--the boy was even captured in 1547 and the Scottish Parliament even barred him from the succession during that time.
It seems that by 1548 though, James Hamilton was in France and there were talk of several French brides. His father's aspirations for his sons aimed either towards the Queen of Scots, or towards a French match. He seemed very supportive of that alliance when it suited him.
True. I read something about a suggested French match. However if He had tht chance, would the 2nd Earl of Arran marry his son to the Queen of England. It would be a tremendous opportunity, especially when comparing a noblewoman to a Queen. That would be doubled if the Earl was to find out that the Scottish succession had been promised to France, even if Mary of Scots died childless.
I could see him possibly scheming for it of course, but Mary wouldn't ever consent. If she's going to marry below her station, she'll do some in the realm, to Devon, as he at least has Plantagenet blood. True Arran has Stuart blood, but I don't think it would register on Mary's radar. After all, even if she marries him, she'd still need to push the French out of Scotland. Something that isn't possible given the state of English finances and the army. Hell, Elizabeth got smacked pretty hard at her first attempt to check the French up there.
Sorry Emperor, I did not see this post. In regards to Mary's illness, we'll never really know. At the time of her ascension she was still having regular periods (much as Cecil made demands that he be kept informed of Elizabeth's menstrual cycles, Mary's council made the same demands). So upon her ascension she was still having regular periods. Still, her first phantom pregnancy in 1554 points out that it is likely the cancer had began to spread. Of course she had merely had a hysterical pregnancy, but IIRC the tumor that was already present. Philip II didn't believe this pregnancy to be true, much like her later one.
Assuming she doesn't have the cancer yet, it would be possible to have a child--a little difficult, but not impossible. Ovarian cancer can sometimes be mistaken for a pregnancy, so it's very possible that Mary was already suffering from it when she became Queen IOTL in 1553. I'm not sure how aggressive the cancer is, as it really just depends. Assuming Mary had it ~1553, she lasted about five years. So it's likely she developed it in the early 1550s. I think, in this case, one child is certainly possible, assuming she's married by 1550, 1551.
The radical reform hasn't kicked off since Edward's death will nip it in the bud, but some Protestants may choose to migrate much as many did IOTL. I doubt we'll see any revolts like OTL, though. Like I said, no Jane Grey, and I doubt there would be any incident involving Thomas Wyatt. If she chooses the Spanish Match, there will likely be protests, but I don't see anything happening like whay The reason is simply because there is less religious division. It exists, but it's more between the old style Henricans and of course the Catholics. Members of Edward's council were quite reformist, but most religious reform came in the later part of the reign. The most they'd done by 1549 is to close the Chanteries.
And yes, Edward was quite puritanical in his religion, but Mary was just as so. She had always been fairly religious in her Catholic belief; indeed she agonized terribly over when she was forced to submit to Henry VIII's will and sign the Act of Supremacy, recognizing herself as a bastard and Henry as Supreme Head. Even with Edward's early death stalling the Edwardian religious changes, the creators of those ideas will still exist. Edward's treatment may of hardened Mary's faith, but she was always sincere in it. So I still think she'll view returning England to Rome as a priority and her mission. She may just have a significantly easier idea since the Protestant faith no widespread. Especially in the country, little has changed except the King/Queen is the Head of the Church. Much of the rituals are the same, another thing that Edward muddled with.
So, she will still fight to return England to the One, True, Faith, but will have an easier time of it. It still still take time, but should Mary marry, say Beja or Courtenay, and beget a successor who can have a long reign ala Elizabeth, England may very well return to the Catholic fold.
As we saw OTL, Mary was willing to go to any lengths to bring about things she considered important - her succession, the return of England to the Catholic fold, the Spanish marriage. In a timeline where she inherits considerably earlier she is younger, presumed (by her contemporaries) far more nubile and fertile, and the memory of both her parents very fresh in all minds. As with both Mary and Elizabeth, the opinions on the Council are divided enough to allow Mary to force through her chosen consort against any other candidates. No English nobleman (or at least, no amount significant enough to amount to an insurmountable faction) would want one of his peers suddenly elevated to the Kingship. The English people and council don't have to fall in line, because Mary could care less when it comes to such matters.
I agree the Emperor's gout and disinclination to remarry are potential impediments, but not necessarily completely prohibitive. The English knew Charles personally, but not Philip; he was older and thus likely to be abroad more often; he was also the greatest man in Christendom and the Emperor, a position not without its significance, even in English eyes. Philip is young, likely to live longer and remain longer within England with his hateful foreign lackeys. Philip also presents a greater certainty of England being swallowed into the Habsburg whole, while marriage to Charles ensures the succession (he only recently fathered another bastard) while gauranteeing continued English succession. Remember, England hasn't had a Queen since...well, since forever, unless you're counting the brief "reign" of the Empress Matilda. Who better than the Emperor - himself sprung of the line of Lancaster - to help the legitimate heiress secure her title and provide her with the male heir the kingdom so desperately needs?
When I say Mary "loved" Charles, I don't mean in a romantic, Taylor Swift way. Throughout the whole of her adult life she and her mother looked to him, and him alone, for emotional and political support. His exertions on their behalf and the mere threat of his towering figure was enough to make even Henry Tudor think twice before making a move. Catherine met Charles once, maybe twice, but was completely devoted to him and his cause. Mary likewise. She immediately and completely looked to him for paternal counsel, support and - upon her succession - a husband. With the next legitimate heiress about to marry the Dauphin, you can bet your bottom dollar bringing England into the Habsburg orbit decisively is of the utmost importance.
Mary was her mother's daughter first, a Queen second. Practicality and common sense never came into it.
I'd argue that the Spanish alliance is the default. Henry VIII's general foreign policy centered on convincing Spain to help him carve up France - it was only his desperation over his lack of a son and affront over Charles' marriage to Isabella of Portugal that begrudgingly forced him into the arms of France. And even then, only temporarily - it wasn't long before he was calling up the Habsburg hotline for another Imperial mail-order bride. Significant portions of England's population depend on the wool trade with the Netherlands and, to a lesser degree, Castille. France is the hateful, traditional enemy, and the Habsburgs (as the inheritors of both Castille and Burgundy) the natural allies.
Beja only has a shot if the Emperor is disinclined to marry Mary himself or to his son, which I think most unlikely given the context.