Sucessful Republic of China

As we all know, Republic of China, after establishment in 1911 was plagued with weak central government, political disunity, warlordism, coups and revolutions etc.

But, how can we accomplish much more sucessful RoC? OFC, not China where all things will go smoothly, but China that is stabilised enough that by 1931 is strong enough to repell the Japanese with no/little foreign help?
And that it is more or less working democracy.

In another thread some of us had the idea that the OTL large Chinese anarchist movement could become even larger/widespread/active following the republican revolution, creating an agrarian revolution/populist movement among Chinese that would act as sufficient threat for the traditional local elites blocking much of China's modernization and the success of centralized government (landlords, moneylenders, etc.) to be willing to work with the KMT government on reform.

*cough* Haven't you been reading my TL? *cough*

YLi said:

*cough* Haven't you been reading my TL? *cough*

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I did, but I didn't find there plausible way for making sucessful RoC.


If I ovelooked something, link please?

For China to fend off Japan as early as 1931 is extremely hard.

ROC was on the way to be able to fend off Japan by 1938/1939 IOTL. When Japan invaded in 1937, it was probably at the latest time they could do so and substantially succeed. If Japan had waited, China would have completed several important industrial projects, built caostal defenses, and established a large number of German trained divisions with standardized weaponry.

I question if it is even possible for the ROC to do so almost a decade ahead of time. Chiang Kai-Shek did almost everything he could to get China to that point by the time he took over in 1926 and launched the Northern Expedition. Even assuming he succeeded beyond anyone's dreams and unified south, central, and north China for real by 1927 (instead of the mixture of direct KMT rule and warlordism in 1928), four years is not enough.

So we are looking at national unity at a much earlier date when Sun Yat-Sen was still alive. So Sun Yat-Sen liklely needs to unify most of China by 1921, which is the time when in reality he really began. That means the POD that is needed is when Sun and the KMT attempted to overthrow Yuan Shikai in 1913. THe POD you need will need to be between 1911-1916.

Blackfox5 said:

For China to fend off Japan as early as 1931 is extremely hard.

ROC was on the way to be able to fend off Japan by 1938/1939 IOTL. When Japan invaded in 1937, it was probably at the latest time they could do so and substantially succeed. If Japan had waited, China would have completed several important industrial projects, built caostal defenses, and established a large number of German trained divisions with standardized weaponry.

I question if it is even possible for the ROC to do so almost a decade ahead of time. Chiang Kai-Shek did almost everything he could to get China to that point by the time he took over in 1926 and launched the Northern Expedition. Even assuming he succeeded beyond anyone's dreams and unified south, central, and north China for real by 1927 (instead of the mixture of direct KMT rule and warlordism in 1928), four years is not enough.

So we are looking at national unity at a much earlier date when Sun Yat-Sen was still alive. So Sun Yat-Sen liklely needs to unify most of China by 1921, which is the time when in reality he really began. That means the POD that is needed is when Sun and the KMT attempted to overthrow Yuan Shikai in 1913. THe POD you need will need to be between 1911-1916.

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I agree that very early POD, somewhere around Chinese revolution, is needed, but can you tell us what such POD could be?

Could early death of Yuan Shikai ( in 1908 after the death of Emperor Guangxu ) help? ( He was supposed to be execuded by late Emperor's will )

abc123 said:

Could early death of Yuan Shikai ( in 1908 after the death of Emperor Guangxu ) help? ( He was supposed to be execuded by late Emperor's will )

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Nobody?

It is my idea that without Yuan Shikai in 1911 Chinese Revolution would be easier, and more important, he wouldn't make troubles for new government as he OTL did...
Also, no his attempt to become the Emperor.

Could this give Chinese Republic few precious initial years to sort things out?

Also, something needs to be done with Sun Yatsen's cancer. He was one of few public figures influential and charismatic enough to unite both the southern and northern factions beneath one banner and also play hardball when it came to dealings with foreign powers.

Color-Copycat said:

Also, something needs to be done with Sun Yatsen's cancer. He was one of few public figures influential and charismatic enough to unite both the southern and northern factions beneath one banner and also play hardball when it came to dealings with foreign powers.

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Well, IMO it isn't necesarry, considering that he lived by 1925, if 14 years at helm of China isn't enough to do many important things, than 10 years more doesn't means much.
Others could carry on, like Song Jiaoren, if he isn't assasinated as OTL.

I would like to write an TL with POD of early death of Yuan Shikai, but since I'm really poorly versed into Chinese history and I don't speak/read Chinese, I would need major help from someone who is much better at those things...

I'm not super well versed on the period either, but my university library has a pretty decent collection of English language books on early Republican and Warlord China. I've only leafed through a handful, but if I have time, I might try to get through some more and share anything I come up with.

Color-Copycat said:

I'm not super well versed on the period either, but my university library has a pretty decent collection of English language books on early Republican and Warlord China. I've only leafed through a handful, but if I have time, I might try to get through some more and share anything I come up with.

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Well, it seems that your knowledge if waaay better than mine, but if we can cooperate on a basis of aforementioned POD, I would be glad to try to write something short as v1.0, and maybe expand it later...

I sort of think that Jiang has to fall from preeminence somewhere along the way. China needs a leader who can balance his goals (nd know what they are) with those of the malefactors in the region given that it just is not plausible to prevent the Soviets and the Japanese from having interests in the area. I'd like to see a timeline done, therefore, which utilizes the Zhongshan Warship Incident as its point of departure.

Wendell said:

I sort of think that Jiang has to fall from preeminence somewhere along the way. China needs a leader who can balance his goals (nd know what they are) with those of the malefactors in the region given that it just is not plausible to prevent the Soviets and the Japanese from having interests in the area. I'd like to see a timeline done, therefore, which utilizes the Zhongshan Warship Incident as its point of departure.

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Can you elaborate?

I have the feeling that both Yuan and Chiang need to be butterflied early on. Yuan, for obvious reasons. Chiang, because not only did he lack political skills, but during the 1930s he had also become a textbook fascist. He made extensive cooperation with Nazi Germany, started a fascist personality cult, and even began a Blue Shirt movement. So even if miraculously Chiang ends the Warlord Era earlier and he had built a modern army by the time Japan invaded, would the west and Soviets even have bothered to deliver aid to a fascist regime? At best they would have been content to see two fascist regimes devour each other.

EternalCynic said:

I have the feeling that both Yuan and Chiang need to be butterflied early on. Yuan, for obvious reasons. Chiang, because not only did he lack political skills, but during the 1930s he had also become a textbook fascist. He made extensive cooperation with Nazi Germany, started a fascist personality cult, and even began a Blue Shirt movement. So even if miraculously Chiang ends the Warlord Era earlier and he had built a modern army by the time Japan invaded, would the west and Soviets even have bothered to deliver aid to a fascist regime? At best they would have been content to see two fascist regimes devour each other.

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With proper POD Chiang could end either as Chinese Oswald Mosley or as their Montgomery...