AH challenge: Finnish-Estonian republic

Max Sinister

Banned
The POD doesn't really have to be after 1900, but the Finnish-Estonian republic has to be completely independent, has to rule at least 75% of each modern Finland / Estonia, and it has to last at least 25 years. Good luck!
 

Nicole

Perhaps a Confederation, based on similar Ethnic grounds, is established between the two nations after their independence from Russia? It manages to get involved in the European Alliance system, so Stalin decides against invading it, and it joins NATO after WW2... The Fenno-Estonian Confederation lasts 1919-present, and is actually slightly larger, including territories Finland lost OTL...
 

wkwillis

Too many Finns, not enough Estonians. If you put in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, there still aren't enough Balts to restrain Finnish dominance.
 

Andrei

wkwillis said:
Too many Finns, not enough Estonians. If you put in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, there still aren't enough Balts to restrain Finnish dominance.
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I doubt that. Finland's population is about 5.2 million , Estonia's population is 1.5 million , Latvia's population is 2.5 million , and Lithuania's population is 3.7 million people. So the combined population of Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania will be larger than the population of Finland.

The Estonians are fino-ugric , not baltic , closely related to the Finns , so it probably won't matter there are more Finns than Estonians.

I could see a Finnish republic that includes Estonia ( IIRC the Finns helped the Estonians in 1919 to repell the Bolsheviks ), but I think that Finland will lose Estonia as well , to the Russians , after the winter war. An Estonian SSR will be created , and after the fall of the USSR , Estonia might chose to be independent or to become a part of Finland
 

wkwillis

Andrei said:
I doubt that. Finland's population is about 5.2 million , Estonia's population is 1.5 million , Latvia's population is 2.5 million , and Lithuania's population is 3.7 million people. So the combined population of Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania will be larger than the population of Finland.

The Estonians are fino-ugric , not baltic , closely related to the Finns , so it probably won't matter there are more Finns than Estonians.

I could see a Finnish republic that includes Estonia ( IIRC the Finns helped the Estonians in 1919 to repell the Bolsheviks ), but I think that Finland will lose Estonia as well , to the Russians , after the winter war. An Estonian SSR will be created , and after the fall of the USSR , Estonia might chose to be independent or to become a part of Finland
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I wasn't counting the postwar Russian immigrants to the Baltics, but I could. Or assume that lots of refugees from Russia would arrive, or from someplace.
 

Andrei

wkwillis said:
I wasn't counting the postwar Russian immigrants to the Baltics, but I could. Or assume that lots of refugees from Russia would arrive, or from someplace.
Click to expand...

If we discount the non-Lithuanian/Latvian/Estonian population from the total population of Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia and we add those numbers we come up with 5.6 million people . Finland has 5.2 million people including the Swedish minority.

But we need to know the 1920 statistics to be sure of who would have dominated the union.
 

Andrei

What about this POD:
-Bolshevik troops are more succesful in their offensive against Estonia in december 1918
-the Finnish forces sent in Estonia are more numerous and have a decisive role in repelling the Soviet invasion
-the Estonians , in a referendum , vote to join Finland because of the Soviet threat
-Finalnd loses the Winter war and is forced to cede Estonia , Vyborg and Karelia to the Russians
-the Estonian SSR is created
-during WWII , Estonia is occupied by German and Finnish troops
-Estonia is reincorporated in the USSR in 1945
-Estonia declares independence and the people vote to be reincorporated into Finland in the early 1990's.
 
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