WI Eamon de Valera executed in 1916?

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

Eamon de Valera took part in the 1916 Easter Rebellion and was originally sentenced to death by firing squad. However de Valera was born in New York and the British authorities felt it may not be in its best interests to shoot an American citizen.

How do you think Ireland would have been different had the execution taken place.Personally I consider the man a blight on Ireland.

deathscompanion1 · Oct 30, 2012

jamsodonnell said:
Eamon de Valera took part in the 1916 Easter Rebellion and was originally sentenced to death by firing squad. However de Valera was born in New York and the British authorities felt it may not be in its best interests to shoot an American citizen.

How do you think Ireland would have been different had the execution taken place.Personally I consider the man a blight on Ireland.

Initially things are bloodier and the IRA has less foreign support and is less politically legitimate.

However the end result is a net plus with no civil war and a sane economic policy.

I just hope whoever takes charge keeps us out of the War.

Trotsky · Oct 30, 2012

I think the Wilson government would make some noise about it, official protest to the embassy in Washington, an op-ed in some national rag, etc., and then still enter the war in the spring of 1917.

Æsir · Oct 30, 2012

Trotsky said:
I think the Wilson government would make some noise about it, official protest to the embassy in Washington, an op-ed in some national rag, etc., and then still enter the war in the spring of 1917.

A thought; Wilson was very pro-British and the election results in New Hampshire and California were very, very close. If you can find 2,000 Irish Catholics who voted for Wilson in California and convince them to vote for Charles Evans Hughes, Wilson loses the election. Although IOTL apparently the British did execute a US citizen, Tom Clarke, so it might not have much of an effect.

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

deathscompanion1 said:
Initially things are bloodier and the IRA has less foreign support and is less politically legitimate.

However the end result is a net plus with no civil war and a sane economic policy.

I just hope whoever takes charge keeps us out of the War.

I presume that there would be other anti treaty types who might take up arms and precipitate a civil war. Without de Valera would Fianna Fail have become as dominant in politics though?

As for WWII I doubt any Taoiseach would take Ireland into the war in 1839 but he may be less inclinded to stay neutral as the tide turns especially if the US is a bit less dickish towards Ireland

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

jamsodonnell said:
I presume that there would be other anti treaty types who might take up arms and precipitate a civil war. Without de Valera would Fianna Fail have become as dominant in politics though?

As for WWII I doubt any Taoiseach would take Ireland into the war in 1839 but he may be less inclinded to stay neutral as the tide turns especially if the US is a bit less dickish towards Ireland

There were other anti treaty members, but it would be interesting to see how this would impact the War of Independence,and therefore the treaty (I wonder for example if there wasn't the confusion about the remit of the delegation to London)

As to FF he was a major driver in them and is the founding father, I doubt they would be formed in the same way, there's also the fact that if the Civil War plays out differently then the birth of both the dominant political parties. And it would also mean perhaps different newspapers which would affect the body politic of Ireland during the period.

As to the War, I think it would depend on how the intervening decade went, without the Economic war, would Ireland be in a better position. Would either CnaG or the not FF party have pursued the policies that resulted in the Treaty ports being handed over, in which case the chances are that Ireland would be dragged into the War

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

sparky42 said:
There were other anti treaty members, but it would be interesting to see how this would impact the War of Independence,and therefore the treaty (I wonder for example if there wasn't the confusion about the remit of the delegation to London)

As to FF he was a major driver in them and is the founding father, I doubt they would be formed in the same way, there's also the fact that if the Civil War plays out differently then the birth of both the dominant political parties. And it would also mean perhaps different newspapers which would affect the body politic of Ireland during the period.

As to the War, I think it would depend on how the intervening decade went, without the Economic war, would Ireland be in a better position. Would either CnaG or the not FF party have pursued the policies that resulted in the Treaty ports being handed over, in which case the chances are that Ireland would be dragged into the War

Without Dev ould Fianna Fail or its analogue have become the power it did? I think not but I am not certain which party or parties would have take its place. Could CnaG have survived?

No econoic war would certainly change the face of 1930s Ireland and beyond. If the Treaty Ports were still British then Cobh and probably Cork would have been bombed by the Luftwaffe. With no facilities for an RAF station at Spike or Berehaven I fear Ireland would indeed have been draggged into the war in 1940.

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

jamsodonnell said:
Without Dev ould Fianna Fail or its analogue have become the power it did? I think not but I am not certain which party or parties would have take its place. Could CnaG have survived?

No econoic war would certainly change the face of 1930s Ireland and beyond. If the Treaty Ports were still British then Cobh and probably Cork would have been bombed by the Luftwaffe. With no facilities for an RAF station at Spike or Berehaven I fear Ireland would indeed have been draggged into the war in 1940.

It would depend on how the non Dev party developed, FF's strength came from the local party infrastructure that they built up during the '20's while CnaG had to put the country back together and make the hard choices.

The anti treaty forces might have splintered without a unifying figure like Dev, or been unwilling to make the flip like his change of heart on the oath, perhaps you might have seen Irish Labour become resurgent without Dev and FF, giving Ireland a true left/right divide.

(By the way CnaG did survive, they just rebranded to FG)

As to the 1930's-40's it very much depends on factors like how the Irish Government deals with the crash and the decade, and what the relationship with the UK is.

Certainly without a better relationship with them the chances of the Port's being used is difficult. It would really be a large butterfly.

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

sparky42 said:
It would depend on how the non Dev party developed, FF's strength came from the local party infrastructure that they built up during the '20's while CnaG had to put the country back together and make the hard choices.

The anti treaty forces might have splintered without a unifying figure like Dev, or been unwilling to make the flip like his change of heart on the oath, perhaps you might have seen Irish Labour become resurgent without Dev and FF, giving Ireland a true left/right divide.

(By the way CnaG did survive, they just rebranded to FG)

As to the 1930's-40's it very much depends on factors like how the Irish Government deals with the crash and the decade, and what the relationship with the UK is.

Certainly without a better relationship with them the chances of the Port's being used is difficult. It would really be a large butterfly.

A stronger Labour party would have been an interesting development but then I am biased being rather of a leftist persuasion.

Had not Britian decided to hand back the treaty oints wouldn't the relationship have been a moot point. The bases would ahve been there and the Luftwaffes probably would have attacked them. with a fair bit of collateral damage. If uboats also declared open season on Irish shipping....

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

jamsodonnell said:
A stronger Labour party would have been an interesting development but then I am biased being rather of a leftist persuasion.

Had not Britian decided to hand back the treaty oints wouldn't the relationship have been a moot point. The bases would ahve been there and the Luftwaffes probably would have attacked them. with a fair bit of collateral damage. If uboats also declared open season on Irish shipping....

A stronger Left movement (and not just FF left because FG was right) would have large effects on Ireland, perhaps avoiding the smaller minor left parties that have spread up and died out over the years.

The question would be interesting, if the 1930's are handled better perhaps there's an airport in Cork that could be used.

Perhaps a better relationship would mean a bigger presence in Cork Harbour which might improve things, (I'm sure WW2 planes could base off Cobh for example (there must be a bit of flat land somewhere on the island

)

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

sparky42 said:
A stronger Left movement (and not just FF left because FG was right) would have large effects on Ireland, perhaps avoiding the smaller minor left parties that have spread up and died out over the years.

The question would be interesting, if the 1930's are handled better perhaps there's an airport in Cork that could be used.

Perhaps a better relationship would mean a bigger presence in Cork Harbour which might improve things, (I'm sure WW2 planes could base off Cobh for example (there must be a bit of flat land somewhere on the island)

A stronger Labour party should hhve a considerable effect on social legislation if they can take power I would guess that this party wold be less willing to kow tow to the church which can't be a bad thing

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

Some more thoughts on the subject, Dev not being there might free up Lemass for an earlier position in the leadership in the anti Treaty Sinn Féin which might be interesting. He was fully involved with building up the Cumann which were to be so vital in FF's power base within Ireland (which might mean that the FF replacement would have the same structure) but he also is considered responsible for the economic plans that improved Ireland when he became Taoiseach (so not Dev's dancing at the crossroads bit). So the very underlying policies of the not FF might be interesting.

As for the left given the underlying divisions within the labour party between Larkin and O Brien the Irish Labour party might still be weakened and challenged by the fringe left parties. The might do better due to any issues the Anti Sinn Féin would have but I think they might at best have parity with the anti groups.

jamsodonnell · Oct 30, 2012

sparky42 said:
Some more thoughts on the subject, Dev not being there might free up Lemass for an earlier position in the leadership in the anti Treaty Sinn Féin which might be interesting. He was fully involved with building up the Cumann which were to be so vital in FF's power base within Ireland (which might mean that the FF replacement would have the same structure) but he also is considered responsible for the economic plans that improved Ireland when he became Taoiseach (so not Dev's dancing at the crossroads bit). So the very underlying policies of the not FF might be interesting.

As for the left given the underlying divisions within the labour party between Larkin and O Brien the Irish Labour party might still be weakened and challenged by the fringe left parties. The might do better due to any issues the Anti Sinn Féin would have but I think they might at best have parity with the anti groups.

Lemass as Taoiseach earlier? Now that would have some major benefits for a de Valera-less Ireland. I'm not thinking of a much earlier celtic tiger but perhaps soe of the economic storms that Ireland faced over the years would e weathered better... unless the similar mistakes where made earlier.

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

jamsodonnell said:
Lemass as Taoiseach earlier? Now that would have some major benefits for a de Valera-less Ireland. I'm not thinking of a much earlier celtic tiger but perhaps soe of the economic storms that Ireland faced over the years would e weathered better... unless the similar mistakes where made earlier.

It's a big question, and there are major butterflies from a lack of Dev, but for ease lets assume the Civil War happens as OTL with the same loses. Lemass seemed to be a strong force in support of abandoning the SF policy of abstention so maybe at least a party entering the Dail at the same time as OTL (which might have more tensions given his brother's murder).

Now even if this not FF wins the same historic victories as OTL I have to say I can't see the man that played such a role in building up the economy during his OTL leadership, deciding instead to engage in the Economic War which has knock on's.

Assuming Ireland stays neutral, perhaps a better investment of the little Marshall funds Ireland got would help as well. Of course it would be no Celtic Tiger(the first half not the second) but it would as you said have the potential stabilise the economic situation of the country during the 50's and possibly the 60's. I don't know enough to speak of any social views that would occur though.

The major issue is of course you remove Dev and the Constitution could be vastly different to what we have, I read somewhere that there's a copy of the original variant proposed by the working group that didn't have the "special position" of the RC for example.

A Lemass in his Prime as Taoiseach would certainly change the Republic I think.

General Greene · Oct 30, 2012

Well I think we could be pretty confident that the Big Fella would play a much bigger role, and without the opposition from Dev, Collins' position as head of the IRA would probably make it easier to sell to the anti-treaty faction that it's a temporary measure. Hopefully Collins doesn't get assassinated ITTL. I'd love to see what a Collins led Ireland looks like.

sparky42 · Oct 30, 2012

General Greene said:
Well I think we could be pretty confident that the Big Fella would play a much bigger role, and without the opposition from Dev, Collins' position as head of the IRA would probably make it easier to sell to the anti-treaty faction that it's a temporary measure. Hopefully Collins doesn't get assassinated ITTL. I'd love to see what a Collins led Ireland looks like.

Well the effects of having Collins alive would change Ireland beyond all that we know. Perhaps without Dev the anti forces can't get as many men to create a viable civil war?

While as a Cork Man I will always give the big fella the benefit of the doubt I am forced to point out that we can only guess at the path he would have taken. If he had survived would we be typing about what shape Ireland would be in if Dev or one off the other Rising commanders survived.

I stayed with Lemass as we can at least compare and contrast what happened in that case.

General Greene · Oct 30, 2012

sparky42 said:
Well the effects of having Collins alive would change Ireland beyond all that we know. Perhaps without Dev the anti forces can't get as many men to create a viable civil war?

While as a Cork Man I will always give the big fella the benefit of the doubt I am forced to point out that we can only guess at the path he would have taken. If he had survived would we be typing about what shape Ireland would be in if Dev or one off the other Rising commanders survived.

I stayed with Lemass as we can at least compare and contrast what happened in that case.

Well the death of Dev has huge effects on how both the treaty is debated, and how the peace conference is set up to begin with. It probably has huge affects on the Civil War itself. So it would have a significant change on how Collins was both viewed and acted. As Director of Intelligence for the IRA, and the President of the IRB he would have even more power as a leader in the independence movement, and would have a decent chance at becoming the Taoseach as his position in the IRB made him according to them the President of the Irish Republic. If he had survived, of course we would be typing about what shape Ireland would be in if Dev had survived. We're all about discussing alternate history. Unless you mean that the site would be butterflied away, but not even I would give the Big Fella that much credit.

Certainly I understand your motivation, I was just curious to the possibility as it seems a decently plausible one that Collins is even more prominent with Dev out of the picture. Also in this case I don't think Collins is on the treaty delegation, so that brings up another bunch of potential butterflies. I do think though that Collins would pursue the same route Dev eventually did in regards to the treaty, and that eventually Ireland would gain full status as a republic (perhaps sooner ITTL). Maybe this is facilitated by a much less severe or non existent Civil War, and more economic development spurred by Collins and his successors in order to quicken the day when full independence is declared. It be interesting to see a Collins government's relationship with Ulster as well.

sparky42 · Oct 31, 2012

General Greene said:
Well the death of Dev has huge effects on how both the treaty is debated, and how the peace conference is set up to begin with. It probably has huge affects on the Civil War itself. So it would have a significant change on how Collins was both viewed and acted. As Director of Intelligence for the IRA, and the President of the IRB he would have even more power as a leader in the independence movement, and would have a decent chance at becoming the Taoseach as his position in the IRB made him according to them the President of the Irish Republic. If he had survived, of course we would be typing about what shape Ireland would be in if Dev had survived. We're all about discussing alternate history. Unless you mean that the site would be butterflied away, but not even I would give the Big Fella that much credit.

Certainly I understand your motivation, I was just curious to the possibility as it seems a decently plausible one that Collins is even more prominent with Dev out of the picture. Also in this case I don't think Collins is on the treaty delegation, so that brings up another bunch of potential butterflies. I do think though that Collins would pursue the same route Dev eventually did in regards to the treaty, and that eventually Ireland would gain full status as a republic (perhaps sooner ITTL). Maybe this is facilitated by a much less severe or non existent Civil War, and more economic development spurred by Collins and his successors in order to quicken the day when full independence is declared. It be interesting to see a Collins government's relationship with Ulster as well.

I fully agree that without Dev the chances are that Collins becomes a much more powerful figure and that would have significant butterflies. I just meant that sadly we are left with very little firm idea on how an Ireland lead by Collins would have turned out. Of course as a Corkman I would tend to be Pro Collins.

It would bring up interesting questions about how different Ireland would be, how would the treaty have been negotiated, the civil war, the flight of the Protestant community during the Civil War, the Economic policies, international polices.

Assuming that the IRA/Sinn Féin split in some form over the treaty we could still see some of the historic FF figures on the other side but what form of party this would take is up in the air. Would as I suggested we see Labour take a more dominant role in the Daíl?

Over on ChangingTimes there is a short 1 page TL on such a situation, it basically had Collins as an Internationalist rather than the isolationism of Dev.

jamsodonnell · Oct 31, 2012

sparky42 said:
It's a big question, and there are major butterflies from a lack of Dev, but for ease lets assume the Civil War happens as OTL with the same loses. Lemass seemed to be a strong force in support of abandoning the SF policy of abstention so maybe at least a party entering the Dail at the same time as OTL (which might have more tensions given his brother's murder).

Now even if this not FF wins the same historic victories as OTL I have to say I can't see the man that played such a role in building up the economy during his OTL leadership, deciding instead to engage in the Economic War which has knock on's.

Assuming Ireland stays neutral, perhaps a better investment of the little Marshall funds Ireland got would help as well. Of course it would be no Celtic Tiger(the first half not the second) but it would as you said have the potential stabilise the economic situation of the country during the 50's and possibly the 60's. I don't know enough to speak of any social views that would occur though.

The major issue is of course you remove Dev and the Constitution could be vastly different to what we have, I read somewhere that there's a copy of the original variant proposed by the working group that didn't have the "special position" of the RC for example.

A Lemass in his Prime as Taoiseach would certainly change the Republic I think.

Very different perhaps. I am not sure about social liberalisation. Even without the special place for the church in the constitution it wielded enormous power and influence..Perhaps a Lemass government would reach out to Northern Ireland earlier. Not sure if this could help avert the Troubles though

jamsodonnell · Oct 31, 2012

sparky42 said:
I fully agree that without Dev the chances are that Collins becomes a much more powerful figure and that would have significant butterflies. I just meant that sadly we are left with very little firm idea on how an Ireland lead by Collins would have turned out. Of course as a Corkman I would tend to be Pro Collins.

It would bring up interesting questions about how different Ireland would be, how would the treaty have been negotiated, the civil war, the flight of the Protestant community during the Civil War, the Economic policies, international polices.

Assuming that the IRA/Sinn Féin split in some form over the treaty we could still see some of the historic FF figures on the other side but what form of party this would take is up in the air. Would as I suggested we see Labour take a more dominant role in the Daíl?

Over on ChangingTimes there is a short 1 page TL on such a situation, it basically had Collins as an Internationalist rather than the isolationism of Dev.

A cynic might say that Collins did not live long enough to disappoint. A Collins who survived the Civil War and played a major art in the early development of the Irish Free State is interesting. I couldn't even gues at how the country would progress. Would he be an internationalist? I simply don't know.