Implications for aircraft development if Lt Belenko doesn't defect

AdA · Oct 29, 2012

Up until 1976 the MiG25 was was regarded as a serious threat in the west and the need to counter it as a major motivition to raise the capability of NATO AirForces. Once PVO LT Victor Belenko defected to Japan with a brand New MiG25P the aircraft limitations were know and led to a reverse effect, Soviet Aircraft now being dismissed as old fashioned and inferior.
The defection prompted the Sovietes to accelerate modernizations of their interceptors, with the MiG25PD being rushed and the P being upgraded to PDS standard, and ultimately by the new generation MiG31 being introduced. Combat performance by downgraded MiG export variants later reinforced the general view resulting from the analysis of Belenko's aircraft.
So what would have happened if he had bever defected, and the MiG25 kept being seen for a few more years as a super fighter? What would have been the impact on Westhern aircraft programs.

"A true understanding of the strengths and failings of the MiG-25 by the West came in 1976. On 6 September, a PVO pilot, Lt. Viktor Belenko, defected to the West, landing his MiG-25P at Hakodate Airport in Japan. It was carefully dismantled and analyzed by the Foreign Technology Division (now the National Air and Space Intelligence Center) of the United States Air Force, at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio. After 67 days, the aircraft was returned to the Soviets in pieces"
http://www.globalaircraft.org/planes/mig-25_foxbat.pl

Orville_third · Oct 30, 2012

I don't think much would have changed. The Reagan buildup would have continued no matter what. (And the quality changes were designed to counter the quantity of the Soviet Air Forces.)

Herzen's love-child · Oct 30, 2012

Are you sure the defection prompted the Soviets to significantly accelerate anything?

Dan · Oct 31, 2012

On the face value of the POD, I don't think you'd see much of an acceleration of quality, and I don't think there was much drop off of quality after it was revealed either. You might see stealth tech come forward by a year max if not. By and large, unfortunately it will be business as usual.

AdA · Oct 31, 2012

Herzen's love-child said:
Are you sure the defection prompted the Soviets to significantly accelerate anything?

A huge one. The entire fleet of MiG25P had to be upgraded tp PDS standard, a process that incorporated the qualities of the MiG25PD.
This gave them, for the first time, a large fleet of Look Down Shoot Down interceptors. Without the MiG25P being compromissed, they might have done what they usally did, not upgrading older aircrfat and progressively introducing the PD into service alonside unupgraded Ps. The upgrade program reduced the number of PDs built, and this accelerated the introduction of the MiG31.
But the export versions of the MiG 25, even though labeled PD, were equiped with the original P radar. This led to a general complacency in the west about soviet radar technology and for a while NATO still assumed that the PVO lacked the ability to engage low flying targets.

Herzen's love-child · Oct 31, 2012

AdA said:
A huge one.

I know that the Soviets upgraded their interceptors. But I'm questioning the causality. Militaries upgrade equipment all the time. I was asking for documentation showing that the defection set off the train of events that led to the upgrading of the Soviet interceptor fleet. You imply essentially that the Soviets were embarrassed into modernizing their planes.

burmafrd · Nov 6, 2012

We were already beginning to find out that the MiG-25 was not the monster it had been thought of at first.

We already knew it was heavy and short ranged.

So realistically from the NATO side of things not much changed.

AdA · Nov 6, 2012

Herzen's love-child said:
I know that the Soviets upgraded their interceptors. But I'm questioning the causality. Militaries upgrade equipment all the time. I was asking for documentation showing that the defection set off the train of events that led to the upgrading of the Soviet interceptor fleet. You imply essentially that the Soviets were embarrassed into modernizing their planes.

Pg 102 of Yefim Gordon book on the Foxbat.
The USSR didn't upgrade it's aircraft all the time. They mostly built new ones. After 1976 they started a rush program to get the PD in service and converted the whole P fleet to PDS. They had a more capable fleet in 82, while NATO still used the baseline P as indicative of what they could do. Until the PD potential was fully know, NATO was planning with outdated intel.