Go Back   Alternate History Discussion Board > Discussion > Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old October 27th, 2012, 04:22 AM
Alternate History Geek Alternate History Geek is offline
Chessmaster-in-Training
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: North Minnesota Province, Massachusite Federation
Posts: 1000 or more
Latin American countries are 1st world countries

How can we make this happen?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Doctor
I'm the Doctor, you're nuts, and I'm going to stop you!
Economic Left/Right: -8.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.69
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old October 27th, 2012, 04:48 AM
pa_dutch pa_dutch is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1000 or more
Argentina, Uruguay, and maybe Costa Rica seem pretty close to it.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old October 27th, 2012, 05:13 AM
Super_Cool Super_Cool is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 535
Argentina
Argentina was "first world" in the early 20th Century.

It declined because it didn't diversify their economy. Argentina became rich by being the British Empire's official beef producer and they did not bother to do anything else. When world trade declined, they were screwed real bad, and it got worse after a military coup.

The solution is to have Argentina use the boom years to diversify and it would probably still be first world today.

Venezuela
When oil is discovered, have Venezuela set up a decent welfare state. It could easily have been as wealthy as Norway, if, again, not for the military coups.

Cuba
No communist revolution. Cuba was the wealthiest Latin American country in OTL under Batista. Obviously, that does not make up for his crimes. Perhaps if Batista was more forward thinking, he could have used his time in office to try to benefit its citizens. This way, he gets replaced by democracy, not communism, and Cuba becomes comparable to South Korea in industrialization.

Latin America
Outside of those three, it is difficult given the lack of stable governments. Brazil had the additional problem of slavery which holds back industrialization.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old October 27th, 2012, 07:09 AM
Mr.J Mr.J is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 828
Paraguay continues industrializing and avoids the Triple Alliance War. At some point, it sides with Brazil/Argentina against the other, and ends up with guaranteed sea access. Nikola Tesla goes to Paraguay (for some reason) and helps with the design of large-scale hydroelectric dams in the early 1900s, giving the nation a massive jump-start in building electrified industry. The country democratizes in the '20s and has been a stable democracy ever since, with a GDP/capita comprable to Italy today.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old October 27th, 2012, 04:07 PM
Dathi THorfinnsson Dathi THorfinnsson is online now
Daši Žorfinnsson
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Syracuse, Haudenosaunee, Vinland
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Super_Cool View Post
Argentina
Argentina was "first world" in the early 20th Century.

It declined because it didn't diversify their economy. Argentina became rich by being the British Empire's official beef producer and they did not bother to do anything else. When world trade declined, they were screwed real bad, and it got worse after a military coup.

The solution is to have Argentina use the boom years to diversify and it would probably still be first world today.

Venezuela
When oil is discovered, have Venezuela set up a decent welfare state. It could easily have been as wealthy as Norway, if, again, not for the military coups.

Cuba
No communist revolution. Cuba was the wealthiest Latin American country in OTL under Batista. Obviously, that does not make up for his crimes. Perhaps if Batista was more forward thinking, he could have used his time in office to try to benefit its citizens. This way, he gets replaced by democracy, not communism, and Cuba becomes comparable to South Korea in industrialization.

Latin America
Outside of those three, it is difficult given the lack of stable governments. Brazil had the additional problem of slavery which holds back industrialization.
Dont forget Chile.
__________________
David Houston
un Canadien errant
my TL: Canada-wank (99% ASB-free) or here.
Turtledove 2010
updated: 30 Aug '13
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old October 27th, 2012, 04:41 PM
Socrates Socrates is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Super_Cool View Post
Argentina
Argentina was "first world" in the early 20th Century.

It declined because it didn't diversify their economy. Argentina became rich by being the British Empire's official beef producer and they did not bother to do anything else. When world trade declined, they were screwed real bad, and it got worse after a military coup.
The real misstep here is the military coup. Plenty of first world nations like the US, UK and France have had economic dislocations over the 20th Century, but they didn't react by removing their democracy.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old October 27th, 2012, 04:42 PM
Faeelin Faeelin is offline
Lord of Ten Thousand Years
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1000 or more
Send a message via AIM to Faeelin
Quote:
Originally Posted by Socrates View Post
The real misstep here is the military coup. Plenty of first world nations like the US, UK and France have had economic dislocations over the 20th Century, but they didn't react by removing their democracy.
Incidentally, this makes me think there is something more fundamental going on.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iori View Post
Don't take this the wrong way, it's mean in a more neutral, observational manner, but you sort of have the general look of a young politician.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old October 27th, 2012, 05:23 PM
Malta Malta is online now
Kirked
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Baltimare
Posts: 1000 or more
Balkanize Brazil...
__________________
Quote:
Then he raised his head to meet the Great Necromancers Gaze. 'SETTRA DOES NOT SERVE' he shouted, trembling with rage. 'SETTRA RULES'.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old October 27th, 2012, 05:56 PM
Vault boy Vault boy is offline
Stubborn Iturbidista
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Otay, BAC, Imperio Mexicano
Posts: 255
Well, there's also Mexico during the Porfiriato, which reached a very high level of industrial development, but the Mexican Revolution managed to undo all of that development in just 10 years. If Porfirio Diaz had left the building when he was supposed to, it's likely that Francisco I. Madero had a shot at really improving the country's welfare. He would have had to negotiate a lot with the potential revolters that might have arised.

Other than that, have someone smarter manage the spending during the Dķaz Ordaz - Echeverrķa years (who managed to turn upside down the whole Mexican Miracle period with the rampant corruption and overspending on pointless projects).

Aside from Mexico, Colombia could have done better also, if not for the fact there's been a lot of instability due to the Communist insurgency.
__________________
Si a la lid contra hueste enemiga nos convoca la trompa guerrera,
De Iturbide la Sacra Bandera, ”Mexicanos! ”Valientes Seguid!
(A Mexican Empire TL)
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old October 27th, 2012, 06:09 PM
Tobit Tobit is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Kr'rundor
Posts: 1000 or more
I imagine, in a world where either communists or fascists or some other force is occupying Europe, the US sends a Marshal plan to latin America, or some other massive capital transfer to prop up and build up a new hemispheric alliance. That would bring Latin america into the first world as the term was originally used.
__________________
GESTÖRT!  OH JA!
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old October 27th, 2012, 09:20 PM
ByzantineCaesar ByzantineCaesar is online now
King of Winter
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Sćo Paulo, SP, Brasil
Posts: 1000 or more
Keep the Brazilian monarchy.
__________________
The Empire of Oparį - an alternate Brazil in the Isaac's Empire world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by statichaos View Post
When you play the Game of Threads, you win, or you're banned.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old October 27th, 2012, 09:31 PM
Herzen's love-child Herzen's love-child is online now
hipster bon vivant
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: la costa a sinistra
Posts: 1000 or more
Chile and Argentina are. Uruguay as previously stated. Brazil, I would add at this point, in its own unique Brazilian way....
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old October 28th, 2012, 12:27 AM
Pikers3 Pikers3 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Londres, United Federation of Europe
Posts: 736
I think with more democracy they could have easily been 1st world countries by 2012. The problem was that they had dictatorships, but unlike Spain and Greece, they haven't had free access to the 1st world economies due to the EU etc.

(Personally I regard any country below South Korea, Portugal and Malta in GDP per captia rankings as emerging, developing or 3rd world economies) so Argentina and Chile would still be emerging, like Brazil.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old October 28th, 2012, 02:55 AM
HARRY HARRY is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 368
Somewhere like Panama could have become the Latin American Singapore if it had been managed right.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old October 28th, 2012, 03:05 AM
Herzen's love-child Herzen's love-child is online now
hipster bon vivant
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: la costa a sinistra
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pikers3 View Post
(Personally I regard any country below South Korea, Portugal and Malta in GDP per captia rankings as emerging, developing or 3rd world economies) so Argentina and Chile would still be emerging, like Brazil.
There are variations in definitions of and the criteria for "1st World"-ness. If you go by the criteria of the UN Human Development Reports, this one for 2011, Chile and Argentina have reached 1st World status:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?...les.svg&page=1
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old October 28th, 2012, 03:31 AM
wolf_brother wolf_brother is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTC−6
Posts: 1000 or more
It depends on how you define "first world," but by most arguments several Latin American countries are IOTL. Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Guyana, Uruguay, and Venezuela all have better GINI scores than France. The Bahamas, Uruguay, Chile, Trinidad and Tobago, and Argentina all are in the top 50 IHDI nations, just below Russia or the Eastern European nations now looking to join the EU. Looking at nominal GDP PPP shows Brazil doing better than even France and Britain, with Argentina just below the Netherlands or Poland. GDP PPP per capita shows the Bahamas are doing better than Israel, Spain, South Korea, or New Zealand, while Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago equivalent to the Czechs or Portuguese. Argentina and Chile both rank higher than Russia, and again middle out in the same ground as the Eastern Europeans.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old October 28th, 2012, 03:43 AM
Zuvarq Zuvarq is offline
Pinche pendejo güey
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tobit View Post
I imagine, in a world where either communists or fascists or some other force is occupying Europe, the US sends a Marshal plan to latin America, or some other massive capital transfer to prop up and build up a new hemispheric alliance. That would bring Latin america into the first world as the term was originally used.
More successful Alliance for Progress/Alianza para el Progreso?
__________________
Collaborative Earthlike World (thread - wiki)
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old October 28th, 2012, 04:05 AM
Ęsir Ęsir is offline
Counter-Revolutionary Leftist
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: On the pavement thinkin' bout the government
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf_brother View Post
Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Guyana ... The Bahamas
None of which are Latin American.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf_brother View Post
all have better GINI scores than France.
Not a very good measure of development. There are poor countries with low Gini coefficients (Bangladesh, Eithiopia) and rich ones with high coefficients like the United States. And I'm not sure that statement is accurate either; according to the CIA World Factbook, all of the countries you listed that they have data for have higher Gini coefficients than France.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf_brother View Post
Looking at nominal GDP PPP shows Brazil doing better than even France and Britain, with Argentina just below the Netherlands or Poland.
That is a terrible comparison. France and the UK have a third Brazil's population and the ratio between the Netherlands and Argentina is similar, so per capita GDP (which matters more in calculating how prosperous a country is than total GDP; India has a very large GDP but is still a poor country) is substantially lower even though the value of economic activity is the same or higher.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thespitron 6000 View Post
If it does, after we pull the plug we'll be able to nod somberly to ourselves and say, "It's what North Korea would have wanted."
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old October 28th, 2012, 05:09 AM
wolf_brother wolf_brother is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTC−6
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ęsir View Post
None of which are Latin American.
Only if you're using a very limited definition.

Quote:
Not a very good measure of development [...]
I've spoken quite abit about the utility of the GINI before. [1], [2], [3], [4]

Quote:
That is a terrible comparison [...]
And you'll notice I also posted about the GDP PPP per capita.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old October 28th, 2012, 05:24 AM
Iori Iori is offline
Envoy of the Dark Abyss
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Cascadia
Posts: 1000 or more
Send a message via AIM to Iori Send a message via MSN to Iori
Quote:
Originally Posted by Super_Cool View Post
and Cuba becomes comparable to South Korea in industrialization.
You can't compare Cuba and South Korea in this ay for one very important reason: population.

Today Cuba has a population of 11.2 million compared to South Korea with a population of 50 million.

Now going back to 1960, the point SK entered the rapid industrialization phase it had a population of 25 million where-as Cuba at the time only had a population of 7 million.

Now, while Cuba could build some industries and become First World by the present day, it's never going to be able to be the equivalent of South Korea.
__________________
DeviantArt

Of Space and Mind
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 06:00 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.