Is there a way to make the 1914 crisis small, and for it to stay a local war? Unnoticed by everyone but obsessed AH writers looking for something to annalyse? I'm not saying that there wouldn't be a war later, but is there a possible 1914 POD that would produce something other then mass destruction?
WWI: A unoticed blip in history
- Thread starter reformer
- Start date
There is a theory that if the Dual Monarchy had simply launched an immediate attack on Serbia there would be some grumbling from Russia but a prevailing 'Serbs had it coming' sentiment would've kept the crisis from escalating. Ironically it was the failure of the extended diplomacy that set the system of alliances into motion.
I am not sure this theory is correct but it is at least a possibility.
Tom
I am not sure this theory is correct but it is at least a possibility.
Tom
Yeah, have Nicholas not rescind the demobilization order.
IIRC, the Kaiser called the Czar, upon recieving word that the Russian Army was mobilizing, and told him that if Russia mobilized at all, then Germany would be forced to mobilize, and that would mean war. Seeking to avoid a general war for the time being, and hoping that the issue could still be diplomatically resolved before the Austro-Serbian crisis/war got out of hand, Nicholas called for demobilization.
Enter France and Nicholas' Generals. France then gets on the line, and issues a statement of support to Russia, saying that if Russia continues to mobilize, France would move to mobilize in support. Germany would then be in a tricky position, and could not mobilize against both, and therefore, war would be avoided out of Germany's fear of the two front war. Nicholas' Generals also voiced opposition to the idea, stating that the mobilization gears were too far along to just turn back and that it would be far better to just continue, because demobilizing would do much more damage to Russia's chances to remobilize in a hurry.
So, Nicholas ordered the mobilization to continue, and the rest is history...
IIRC, the Kaiser called the Czar, upon recieving word that the Russian Army was mobilizing, and told him that if Russia mobilized at all, then Germany would be forced to mobilize, and that would mean war. Seeking to avoid a general war for the time being, and hoping that the issue could still be diplomatically resolved before the Austro-Serbian crisis/war got out of hand, Nicholas called for demobilization.
Enter France and Nicholas' Generals. France then gets on the line, and issues a statement of support to Russia, saying that if Russia continues to mobilize, France would move to mobilize in support. Germany would then be in a tricky position, and could not mobilize against both, and therefore, war would be avoided out of Germany's fear of the two front war. Nicholas' Generals also voiced opposition to the idea, stating that the mobilization gears were too far along to just turn back and that it would be far better to just continue, because demobilizing would do much more damage to Russia's chances to remobilize in a hurry.
So, Nicholas ordered the mobilization to continue, and the rest is history...
The Kaiser having the common sense that God gave a dog?
The Kaiser, the Tsar, & the King remembering that they were cousins?
The Emperor remembering that he didn't even LIKE his late nephew and truly despised his wife?
Any of the above having even the slighest idea of what they were starting?
The Kaiser, the Tsar, & the King remembering that they were cousins?
The Emperor remembering that he didn't even LIKE his late nephew and truly despised his wife?
Any of the above having even the slighest idea of what they were starting?
If Germany had not encouraged Austria's extreme response then Austria would have accepted Serbia's humiliating concessions in response to the ultimatum.
Then WW1 would have been avoided or postponed,
They key problem was that Germany had persuaded itself that a war was inevitable and that 1914 was the best time for Germany to fight.
Then WW1 would have been avoided or postponed,
They key problem was that Germany had persuaded itself that a war was inevitable and that 1914 was the best time for Germany to fight.
NomadicSky
Banned
[sarcasm]and I thought I fought with my cousins[/sarcasm]
Seriously it's nasty how all monarchies are related and intermarry yet they still exist...and europeans complain about Americans...
Natural crisis
Suppose there was a natural crisis at the time of the assassination--say in influenza epidemic. With numerous soldiers and civilians sick, and the resultant uncertainty in relative military capabilities, might there be more incentive to find some way to prevent the explosion?
Of course, the network of alliances is still in place, so a future crisis could cause a similar war...
Suppose there was a natural crisis at the time of the assassination--say in influenza epidemic. With numerous soldiers and civilians sick, and the resultant uncertainty in relative military capabilities, might there be more incentive to find some way to prevent the explosion?
Of course, the network of alliances is still in place, so a future crisis could cause a similar war...
How About This...
-How about this little item? Consider an ATL wherein the Spanish influenza outbreak took place 4 years earlier (in OTL, 1918). All of the disease vectors were in place for a potential plague. There is a large enough network of international travelers to spread the disease. Within six months you would have 100 million dead of the disease as in OTL. With the death toll involved, no one will be concerned about the diplomatic concerns and problems. A more virulent strain of the virus could simply last past those six months....
-Another idea would be to have massive technological disaster. Consider that according to many conspiracy theories, the 1908 Tunguska, Siberia explosion was caused by the testing of a device built by Nikola Tesla. Consider what if another explosion similar to the Tunguska explosion took place over a large metropolitan area....
-How about this little item? Consider an ATL wherein the Spanish influenza outbreak took place 4 years earlier (in OTL, 1918). All of the disease vectors were in place for a potential plague. There is a large enough network of international travelers to spread the disease. Within six months you would have 100 million dead of the disease as in OTL. With the death toll involved, no one will be concerned about the diplomatic concerns and problems. A more virulent strain of the virus could simply last past those six months....
-Another idea would be to have massive technological disaster. Consider that according to many conspiracy theories, the 1908 Tunguska, Siberia explosion was caused by the testing of a device built by Nikola Tesla. Consider what if another explosion similar to the Tunguska explosion took place over a large metropolitan area....
Most likely, would have been a different German Strategy. Instead of the Schlieffen Plan (march through Belgium around the French defensive lines an take Paris before the Russians can mobilise their Army) Germany could have employed a defensive strategy towards France, attacking Russia instead, very likely defeating the Tzar.
Britain and the U.S. would have stayed out of the war, France would have made only little (if any) progress into German territory.
The russian Empire would have been splitted into many countries, most of them german puppet states.
Britain and the U.S. would have stayed out of the war, France would have made only little (if any) progress into German territory.
The russian Empire would have been splitted into many countries, most of them german puppet states.
reformer said:
Actually I am on a first bark basis with quite a few.
The 1914 Crisis was incredibly easy to avoid. The system had a huge number of checks built into it, that was why there had been no general European War since 1815. The Kaiser was the key. He, quite stupidly (IMHO), was itching for a chance to show he was THE MAN. He was the one who egged on the Emperor to set the ultimatum. He was the one who ignored, until it was too late, any advice that would defuse the crisis. Even a dog is smart enough to walk away from a fight it is not likely to win if the opprotunity presents itself.
What WOULD have set off a War? The same thing that did in 1914 & generally does even today. Envy. Greed. Stupidity. Simple bloody mindedness. Someone believing they could get away with something of value at below wholesale price. Hell, just the guys in charge forgetting what it was like.
There is no decent excuse that a Austrian/Serb dispute KILLED millions of people. It happened because the Tsar wanted to show how big his package was, because the Kaiser wanted to do the same, and the King couldn't stand to be left out. All those people died because the King's cousins wanted to prove that they were just as important as he was.
Madness. Absolutely, unforgivably, stupidly, pitiful Madness!
Have the Serbians cave in to the Austrian ultimatum.
IIRC the Serbian government had all but decided to do this when a last-minute conversation between their Foreign Minister and the Russian ambassador persuaded them to make a reservation on the last (and farthest-reaching) point on the Austrian list of demands. Which reservation was excuse enough for Austria to declare war.
IIRC the Serbian government had all but decided to do this when a last-minute conversation between their Foreign Minister and the Russian ambassador persuaded them to make a reservation on the last (and farthest-reaching) point on the Austrian list of demands. Which reservation was excuse enough for Austria to declare war.
Tom_B said:
I think you are right. Unless I am confusing textbooks here, was not the plan between Germany and Austria to attack Serbia before anyone could react? The ultimatium would reach Serbia, and of course no nation would ever accept what the Dual Monarchy wanted, so sweep in take out the serbs, and BAM Austria has more control in the Balkans. Plus Germany gets an ally all that closer to the sweet prize of the crumbling Ottoman empire.