WI: Gustav Adolphus the Great of Sweden leads Protestants to Victory in 30 Years War?

Excerpt from (ATL) Textbook:

...In March 1632, Gustavus Adolphus invaded Bavaria, a staunch ally of the Emperor. He forced the withdrawal of his Catholic opponents at the Battle of Rain. This would mark an important point of the campaign. In the summer of that year, he sought a political solution that would preserve the existing structure of states in Germany, while guaranteeing the security of its Protestants. But achieving these objectives depended on his continued success on the battlefield.

Gustavus is reported to have entered battle without wearing any armor, proclaiming, "The Lord God, is my armor!" It is more likely that he simply wore a leather cuirass rather than going into battle wearing no battle protection whatsoever. In 1627, near Dirschau in Prussia, [POD] a volley of shots from an unknown Polish regiment of musketeers miss Gustavus as he leads his elite guard into the enemy line, breaking their left flank. This incident, and others like it, strengthen Gustavus' impression as a better alternative than the reigning Hapsburgs.

Two days before the Battle of Lutzen, on 14 November (in the Gregorian calendar, 4th in the Julian calendar) the Roman Catholic general Wallenstein decided to split his forces and withdraw his main headquarters back towards Leipzig. He expected no further move that year from the Protestant army, led by the Swedish king Gustavus Adolphus, since unseasonably wintry weather was making it difficult to camp in the open countryside; however, Gustavus Adolphus' army marched out of camp towards Wallenstein's last-known position and attempted to catch him by surprise, [POD] and succeeded. Gustavus found the camp of a small Catholic force left by Wallenstein, and forced a complete surrender. Without physical struggle, Gustavus was able to obtain the position of Wallenstein's winter camp.

Although exhausted, the Protestant army under Gustavus the Greatest approached Wallenstein's position on a particularly wintry night undetected. What resulted was a complete slaughter, with what was left of the Catholic army sent back to Munich as disgraced prisoners, Wallenstein put up for ransom, and 10 men sent to Pappenheim to warn him that he was next. First Tilly, now Wallenheim. First Brandenburg, then Bavaria. And now Austria was left precariously exposed; it would seem God now favored Gustavus Adolphus, his Protestant coalition, and his designs for Scandinavia and Germany...

So yeah, let's say Vienna falls sometime the next year, what do you guys think would be the peace terms of the ATL Treaty of Westphalia? And what would take place after this peace? Please entertain me.

If Gustav II Adolf does not get a bullet lodged at his collar bone in Poland, he probably wears a steel cuirass above his moose leather coat in Germany, instead of just the leather coat.

Gustav II Adolf was toying with the idea of declaring himself Emperor (of Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Livonia and Denmark north of the Sound) and protector of all protestants - and forcing the Holy Roman Emperor to accept this. One catholic Emperor, one protestant Emperor. He would then invade Denmark to force them to cede all lands north of the Sound (Scania, Halland, Blekinge).

As for land, Sweden would probably get about OTLs Westphalia lands. Bremen alone provided the Swedish state with large tolling income, and until 1721 it alone paid for all garrisons and all other costs of the Swedish German posessions.

This would be rather interesting. Whilst Gustavus Adolphus should be able to win more battles and make himself (and by extension, Sweden) a much greater power than before, when he dies there's still going to be problems. He has no heir except his daughter who might or might not convert to catholism and head to Rome. Assuming anyone was ready to negotiate I figure he should be able to get a fair amount of territory.

HOWEVER; I believe during this time the title of "Emperor" was the sole purview of the Emperor of the Romans whom was named by the Pope. The Emperor of the Romans was also more conviniently known as the Holy Roman Emperor. If the Pope would agree to Gustavus getting the title, he'd take the rug from under anything else he'd do to oppose the Swedes. With the title comes legitimacy and with legitimacy... well no reason to oppose him.

During this time, protestantism was also the rejection of the wordly and holy power of the pope - instead putting that power in the hands of the Kings and Princely Rulers of Europe. A protestant Emperor could very well have been created without the approval of the pope. What is interesting is if the other protestant Kings and Princely Rulers would accept it. Denmark could be forced to in war. Britain has its own problems at the time and the Netherlands are mostly reformist rather than protestant and would probably reject the idea. Left are the Princely States in Germany, of which most would probably accept a post-1648-like Emperorship for protestant states - if nothing else becase the Swedish army is the only thing preventing the catholics from curbstomping them.

Btw, Gustavus Adolphus is the latin name, Gustav Adolf is the Swedish name.

von Adler said:

Btw, Gustavus Adolphus is the latin name, Gustav Adolf is the Swedish name.

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I tend to use Gustavus Adolphus in English forums since it seems to be better known. If I wanted to, I could use the Finnish variant Kustaa II Aadolf. Nobody would recognize it, but I could!

What if he controlled enough of Germany to claim the title Holy Roman Emperor, himself, without it being laughable?

Actually, the liner notes of the "Carolus Rex" album by Sabaton claim that this was his intention (become Holy Roman Emperor). I do not have them handy right now, though.

Edit: The album does not just deal with Charles XII but rather with the roughly 100 years between the rise and fall of Sweden as a significant European power. Just to clarify.

I also forgot to mention that Gustav Adolf would have also added Brandenburg-Prussia into his domains at the end of the 30YW, right?

Well with Sweden more established than otl, perhaps we'll see more armies using Amarschbommar instead of Grand Batteries. To Clarify the Swedes used Artillery in support of their infantry, basically like giant shotguns on the infantry line. OTL the waning of Swedish power led to the Artillery being formed in a grand battery behind the infantry to duel with the enemy artillery as opposed to the Swedish system. ITTL perhaps with Legitimacy of Sweden will come Legitimacy of their system?

von Adler said:

If Gustav II Adolf does not get a bullet lodged at his collar bone in Poland, he probably wears a steel cuirass above his moose leather coat in Germany, instead of just the leather coat.

Gustav II Adolf was toying with the idea of declaring himself Emperor (of Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Livonia and Denmark north of the Sound) and protector of all protestants - and forcing the Holy Roman Emperor to accept this. One catholic Emperor, one protestant Emperor. He would then invade Denmark to force them to cede all lands north of the Sound (Scania, Halland, Blekinge).

As for land, Sweden would probably get about OTLs Westphalia lands. Bremen alone provided the Swedish state with large tolling income, and until 1721 it alone paid for all garrisons and all other costs of the Swedish German posessions.

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I think if he decides to take Denmark out, he would take the entire Danish state. But a few points, when Sweden was able to defeat Denmark in 1645 it was to large degree thanks to Dutch support. If he tries to deal with Danes without this support, the Danes just retreat to the Islands, blockage Sweden and wait to Sweden gives up and unless there are a major ice winter, there's nothing the Swedes can do. A much better solution is instead of conquering Danish lands, he make a alliance with the Dutch and simply force the Danes to swear loyalty as a vassal. While this would usual be a bad idea, at this point the Danish king is an old drunk, his heir is an fat, stupid and childless drunk with bad health and his second son is despised by the nobility. It didn't take a genius to see that Denmark would go into decades of weakness. As suchthere are little chance that Denmark would be able to challenge Sweden in decades, giving the Swedes room to consolidate their power and build up a big enough fleet that Denmark would be unable to challenge Sweden.

So, from what i can gather, Gustav could easily get Protestant Germany under his wing, annex the Baltic Coast and Prussia-Brandenburg, and have decades to consolidate this empire? With some more luck, garner more of Germany, gain a naval ally in the Dutch, annex Scania, get Denmark as a vassal, and get the rest of Europe to accept his empire? Then some questions:

-How much of Germany could Gustav plausibly annex? Put under his influence and/or protection?
-What would France be doing?
-How would they rank among the powers of Europe?

ingemann said:

I think if he decides to take Denmark out, he would take the entire Danish state. But a few points, when Sweden was able to defeat Denmark in 1645 it was to large degree thanks to Dutch support. If he tries to deal with Danes without this support, the Danes just retreat to the Islands, blockage Sweden and wait to Sweden gives up and unless there are a major ice winter, there's nothing the Swedes can do. A much better solution is instead of conquering Danish lands, he make a alliance with the Dutch and simply force the Danes to swear loyalty as a vassal. While this would usual be a bad idea, at this point the Danish king is an old drunk, his heir is an fat, stupid and childless drunk with bad health and his second son is despised by the nobility. It didn't take a genius to see that Denmark would go into decades of weakness. As suchthere are little chance that Denmark would be able to challenge Sweden in decades, giving the Swedes room to consolidate their power and build up a big enough fleet that Denmark would be unable to challenge Sweden.

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Swedeb can use its German army to take Jylland and an army from Sweden to take Halland, Skåne and Blekinge - the the Danes have only the islands, and if the war turns into one of attrition, the Swedes will have the upper hand in the long run, even if the Danish navy is much stronger. On the other hand, during the period the Swedish navy was almost equal to the Danish one, winning a big battle at Fehmarn 1644 (with Dutch support) and fighting the combined Dutch and Danish fleets to a standstill in the Sound 1658 (although the battle was tactically a small Dano-Dutch victory, it was a major strategic victory for the Danes as the Dutch could supply Copenhagen as the Swedish fleet retreated). It is not impossible to envision that Sweden could defeat or at least force a withdrawal of a Danish fleet.

As long as the Swedes declare that they are not interested in both sides of the Sound nor in controlling the Sound trade and tolls, the Dutch and English will most likely not intervene.

Sweden will not annex Brandenburg, Prussia, Lüneburg or any other German states - this would be worse to the German Princes than the increased Imperial influence that they fought against during the 30 years' war. A status as post-Westphalen Emperor over these lands would be enough for Gustav II Adolf - he had the sense to know when he had bitten off more than he could chew, and knew that his powerbase in Sweden, the free peasants, would never accept having a majority of serfs reducing their influence in the riksdag.

ilikesushi said:

-How much of Germany could Gustav plausibly annex? Put under his influence and/or protection?

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If he wants to be conservative? Pommerania, Meckelnburg and other coastal territories and maybe down to Brandenburg. If he wants to be rash? Almost all of it. Seriously, at this point there's only a few armies capable of stopping him in the region, and those are at a severe disadvantage. The problem with this is that in the space of a few years or a decade at most, many of those regions would suffer from additional Bavarian or other Catholic incursions or rebellions which would break his powerbase.

ilikesushi said:

-What would France be doing?

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Unless the Bourbons feel threatened I imagine they'd do the same they were doing up until this point: give the Swedes war subsidies in order to have him fight their war against the Habsburgs. If they feel that Sweden is starting a become a little too powerful? No idea. I still doubt they'd openly attack him at first. Would be bad policy if French arms would fight old allies quite so recently.

ilikesushi said:

-How would they rank among the powers of Europe?

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Who? The Swedes? The French? The new Empire?

Something to note. Gars (Gustavus Adolphus Rex, Seciae ) was 38 (well, just short of) when he died OTL - what's stopping him from siring a son or three?

Also, Sweden's OTL decline as a power is about eighty years after Gars, so him doing even better than OTL doesn't necessarily make a stronger case for the Swedish system than Sweden's OTL triumph.

Elfwine said:

Something to note. Gars (Gustavus Adolphus Rex, Seciae ) was 38 (well, just short of) when he died OTL - what's stopping him from siring a son or three?

Also, Sweden's OTL decline as a power is about eighty years after Gars, so him doing even better than OTL doesn't necessarily make a stronger case for the Swedish system than Sweden's OTL triumph.

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That's... true. If Adolphus reaches the zenith of the Swedish Empire well before its time, the Empire might not have the drive to continue later on.

Olligarchy said:

That's... true. If Adolphus reaches the zenith of the Swedish Empire well before its time, the Empire might not have the drive to continue later on.

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And it would be worth noting that the resources are scarce. Oxensteirna was a genius, but he can't produce gold from straw.

Elfwine said:

Something to note. Gars (Gustavus Adolphus Rex, Seciae ) was 38 (well, just short of) when he died OTL - what's stopping him from siring a son or three?

Also, Sweden's OTL decline as a power is about eighty years after Gars, so him doing even better than OTL doesn't necessarily make a stronger case for the Swedish system than Sweden's OTL triumph.

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He wasn't really interested in sex and had already fathered a daughter that he doted on and groomed to be his successor. She of course was a disaster as queen, but that was obviously unknown at the time and appeared to be just as good as anyone for the throne.

First of all, Sweden was way ahead of all European countries in usings its resources effectively - the bureaucracy was way better, as was census, tax collection, army administration and supply - Sweden did make gold from straw, considering the times. And Oxenstierna was a part of this well-oiled machine.

Gustav II Adolf was interested in sex (I think you might be thinking of Karl XII, who showed little interest) and fathered at leats one bastard son. He also had three children with his wife before Kristina, but all died before the age of 1. If he had time to go home, he would surely sire more children - he and his wife had a suprisingly loving relationship, considering their arranged marriage. The queen was 33 at the time of his death, and capable of bearing children still.

His grandfather got to 64, his father to 61, and neither lived very healthy lifestyles, so him living another 25-30 years (with his martial exercises this is not impossible) seems reasonable.

von Adler said:

First of all, Sweden was way ahead of all European countries in usings its resources effectively - the bureaucracy was way better, as was census, tax collection, army administration and supply - Sweden did make gold from straw, considering the times. And Oxenstierna was a part of this well-oiled machine.

Gustav II Adolf was interested in sex (I think you might be thinking of Karl XII, who showed little interest) and fathered at leats one bastard son. He also had three children with his wife before Kristina, but all died before the age of 1. If he had time to go home, he would surely sire more children - he and his wife had a suprisingly loving relationship, considering their arranged marriage. The queen was 33 at the time of his death, and capable of bearing children still.

His grandfather got to 64, his father to 61, and neither lived very healthy lifestyles, so him living another 25-30 years (with his martial exercises this is not impossible) seems reasonable.

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Shoot, you're right, I was thinking of Karl.

Is it any possible that in the event that Sweden cannot annex Brandenburg, could Denmark actually take it instead?