AHC: Communist Italy + West Berlin-like Vatican

#1 October 22nd, 2012, 04:02 PM

Your challenge is to make the following possible:

In WW2, it's the Soviets who liberate Italy and they make it a Warsaw Pact Communist country.

However after a few talks between the Western Allies and the Soviets, a decision is made:

The Vatican, in the middle of Rome will be a part of the geopolitical West. The Pope and the Catholic Church will stay there.

The Italians build the Iron Curtain around the Vatican which will be known as "The Roman Wall."

Transport of people and goods between Western countries and the Vatican is made possible by pre-determined transit routes through Communist Italy.

HeavyWeaponsGuy · #2 October 22nd, 2012, 04:23 PM

In a word, how? The British and the Americans have the first say with regards to the Med, and they aren't crazy enough to let the Soviets even think about putting Italy in their corner.

Killer300 · #3 October 22nd, 2012, 04:54 PM

Especially since if the Soviets gain Italy, it would mean that they beat Hitler back almost right off the bat, and all the butterflies from this. Mainly, no encirlements on their front, and probably pushing through all Germany.

If they do that though... then the Soviets have no reason to negioate with the Allies, as they'll have all of Europe, pretty much, to themselves. I doubt they'd get all the way to France but... it could get disturbingly close.

M. Adolphe Thiers · #4 October 22nd, 2012, 05:11 PM

All of Italy goes Communist? So, there's no invasion of Sicily or Italy by the Wallies? I'm not familiar with the details of the Italian campaign, but I'm fairly certain that they were adamant about opening up another front before D-Day, so any territory the Brits and Americans have is going to be made into an Anti-Communist South Italy. Although if the Soviets come in from the North, then it would be easier for them to reach Rome and occupy it first.

EnglishCanuck · #5 October 22nd, 2012, 05:50 PM

I can't see Italy going Soviet-style communist. They're far to conservative in most regions. I can see a socialist government taking power using army officers who don't like the fascists.

Noravea · #6 October 22nd, 2012, 07:07 PM

I can see maybe Northern Italy being Soviet controlled if the Soviets get really lucky (Then we get a North Korea-South Korea kind of thing going on), but beyond that, unless the Germans prevent an Allied invasion up the boot, Rome will go to the Allies.

Killer300 · #7 October 22nd, 2012, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EnglishCanuck

I can't see Italy going Soviet-style communist. They're far to conservative in most regions. I can see a socialist government taking power using army officers who don't like the fascists.

Actually, Italy had a really strong Communist movement throughout. After all, there were genuinely Socialists the Fascists were opposing, and used as boogiemen to get into power.

clifton · #8 October 22nd, 2012, 07:57 PM

Churchill wanted to invade Italy first before France, just let Roosevelt push for France first. Italian communist just need to revolt te moment the Sovjets are pushing into Italy. The Allies supported Tito while he was communist, Churchill was against communisme, while Roosevelt was pro-socialist.

The Germans will have without the Italian front additionel divisions to defend France including a few Italian divisions(low quality). Remember most of the Italian army was disarmend because of the Italian surrender. While there were a few Italian divisions serving with the germans it was a shadow of the former Italian army.

That's your window of oppurtunity, small but there.

RGB · #9 October 22nd, 2012, 08:03 PM

The WAllies would probably fund Gladio on steroids unless the Red Army is there propping up the regime, before the new government settles in.

But Italy has the potential to be very interesting if radicalized like that.

Cook · #10 October 23rd, 2012, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EnglishCanuck

I can't see Italy going Soviet-style communist. They're far to conservative in most regions. I can see a socialist government taking power using army officers who don't like the fascists.

By 1944 Italy had the largest Communist Party in Europe outside of the Soviet Union and, more importantly, the largest and best equipped Communist partisan army in Europe.

Dan1988 · #11 October 25th, 2012, 12:54 AM

If Italy goes Communist, it would most likely - in my opinion, at least - would not be Soviet-style. Most likely, it would probably be more like Titoism with a heavy dose of Gramsci, maybe also Bordiga. In other words, a very Italian form of Communism which would probably make it, like Yugoslavia, an independent Communist state. In this case, Italy and Yugoslavia would be natural allies (which, of course, means no Tolyatti city in the USSR, meaning no Lada Zhigulis and other Lada models thereafter).

RGB · #12 October 25th, 2012, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan1988

If Italy goes Communist, it would most likely - in my opinion, at least - would not be Soviet-style. Most likely, it would probably be more like Titoism with a heavy dose of Gramsci, maybe also Bordiga. In other words, a very Italian form of Communism which would probably make it, like Yugoslavia, an independent Communist state. In this case, Italy and Yugoslavia would be natural allies (which, of course, means no Tolyatti city in the USSR, meaning no Lada Zhigulis and other Lada models thereafter).

Italians were often invited for technical expertise. It would probably have a lot of impact in food processing industries too.

Cook · #13 October 25th, 2012, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan1988

If Italy goes Communist, it would most likely - in my opinion, at least - would not be Soviet-style... In this case, Italy and Yugoslavia would be natural allies...

I agree with you that an Italian Communist state would not be a completely pliant Soviet satellite, if for no other reason than the unlikelihood of any large Soviet forces making it that far before the war ends. But I think that they’d still want Soviet material support, (as opposed to troops) if faced with a non-communist Italy in the south, which I think they’d have to be; if the Germans pulled out and the Italian regime collapses, the British would rush forces in, stripping the Mediterranean to do so.

Yugoslavia and Italy would still clash over Trieste though.

Zimmerwald1915 · #14 October 25th, 2012, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan1988

If Italy goes Communist, it would most likely - in my opinion, at least - would not be Soviet-style. Most likely, it would probably be more like Titoism with a heavy dose of Gramsci, maybe also Bordiga. In other words, a very Italian form of Communism which would probably make it, like Yugoslavia, an independent Communist state. In this case, Italy and Yugoslavia would be natural allies (which, of course, means no Tolyatti city in the USSR, meaning no Lada Zhigulis and other Lada models thereafter).

You get props for remembering Bordiga existed. Most people don't. However, Bordiga and Gramsci/Togliatti hadn't been in the same organization since 1926. After 1943 Bordiga was involved in the left-communist and anti-Soviet International Communist Party with Damen, while Gramsci and Togliatti led the Soviet-aligned Italian Communist Party. You won't get these parties cooperating in government. As late as 1944 the Communists were denouncing the International Communists to the Fascist police. And let's not forget that there were Trotskyists running around as well.

So in a "red Italy" scenario where the USSR isn't installing and supporting the government from the start, you have to consider which reds are taking power, and how. I disagree that Gramsci and Togliatti are going to break from Moscow in any significant way. The latter in particular was a Stalinist hack in ways Tito never dreamed. And neither will consider moving away from Moscow til the left-communists and the Trotskyists are liquidated. In terms of foreign policy, a Communist-led Italy is going to be a stick for the Soviets to beat Tito with.

Neither of the other red factions can take power in a scenario where the Soviets are involved in any meaningful way, given the Soviets' violent antipathy towards them. The Trotskyists might consider aligning themselves with Tito - the left-communists will not. Both will be interested in using Italy's resources, such as they are, to strengthen their co-thinkers, such as they are, in France.

Wolfpaw · #15 October 25th, 2012, 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Killer300

Actually, Italy had a really strong Communist movement throughout. After all, there were genuinely Socialists the Fascists were opposing, and used as boogiemen to get into power.

Also, many of those opposing the Fascisti during the Italian Civil War were far-Left partisan groups.

d32123 · #16 October 25th, 2012, 03:47 AM

Someone should write a TL where "Vietnam" happens on the Italian Peninsula.

Alex1guy · #17 October 25th, 2012, 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d32123

Someone should write a TL where "Vietnam" happens on the Italian Peninsula.

Possible? Allies really botch up their half of the invasion or D-Day doesn't go ahead and they throw their lot invading through Italy getting bogged down in the process. The USSR meanwhile pushes much faster (IDK with magic or something),Yalta is different and Italy ends up being split as the Soviets push from the north? Not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but it kinda fits the bill.