AHC: Earlier Soviet Collapse?

There are plenty of threads on extending the life of the Soviet monster, but far fewer on on killing it off earlier.
So:

Short of full on WWIII, just how soon after the OTL conclusion of WWII can you kill off the SU? And by "killing off": feel free to interpret as you will: I mean effectively to the degree that it is no longer able to competitively function as a counter-balance in the post-war Cold War.

Could we have WWII be far worse on the Eastern Front or have Stalin`s attack in the Pacific go wrong ? That would weaken its army and it wouldn`t have the Eastern Bloc to loot to rebuilt its economy.

stirlingdraka said:

Could we have WWII be far worse on the Eastern Front or have Stalin`s attack in the Pacific go wrong ? That would weaken its army and it wouldn`t have the Eastern Bloc to loot to rebuilt its economy.

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How it could go wrong in Pacific? They just beat Nazis. I can imagine fall od Soviet Union after Stalin's death.

Have a Sino-Soviet War that goes horrendously for both sides, the Soviets only succeed by nuking China, but it's a Pyrrhic victory?

Hitler orders an earlier breakout attempt for the Sixth army maybe, or doesn't order Kursk to go ahead, or maybe the mixed Finnish/German force manages to take Murmansk.

Maybe if the Soviets are caught doing something VERY illegal in America, like bribing an important public official, that could prevent Lend Lease from going to them. Or if the Isolationists are bigger in Congress they could block Lend-Lease any ways.

MattII said:

Hitler orders an earlier breakout attempt for the Sixth army maybe, or doesn't order Kursk to go ahead, or maybe the mixed Finnish/German force manages to take Murmansk.

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So they abandon their position and whatever heavy weapons in town and are destroyed even early on rum. Afterwards Soviets armies, which didn't lost time guarding Stalingrad kessel will cut of Nazis armies in Caucasus and we got Super Stalingrad. As to Kursk. Germand will have to spread up their tanks along the front more or less and at the and Soviest will destroy them.
If Murmansk is taken, there will be some problems, bit still Archangelsk is open, Vladivostok is open and Iranian rout is open.

After Stalins death the USSR surly were going through a crisis. De-Stalinisation released some pressure, but it could have gone out of controll like Perestroika 30 years later. In the end it came only in Hungary 1956 to an massive uprising and the Soviets could smash it. But before this they compromised in Poland and prevented that things got out of hand there like in Hungary. But what if they tried to get rid of Gomulka through force and it came in Poland to an uprising like in Hungary? I think an uprisng in both countrys could lead to a "critical mass", leading to uprising in the other Satelitte-republics and maybe the USSR itself. So I think 1956/57 is a time where the USSR could have collapsed.

Nationalist China wins the Chinese Civil War, Soviet efforts to work with Chiang fall apart quickly. Basically the Sino-Soviet split in 1952, and the US and China are working together on the Soviet frontier. The Soviet military buildup necessary combined with better US decision making in Asia (because the old Asia experts aren't purged for being Communist sympathizers who "lost China" as in OTL) leads to earlier economic crises and a general collapse of the Soviet bloc in the late '60s.

KACKO said:

So they abandon their position and whatever heavy weapons in town and are destroyed even early on rum. Afterwards Soviets armies, which didn't lost time guarding Stalingrad kessel will cut of Nazis armies in Caucasus and we got Super Stalingrad.

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OTOH, you get back more than 100,000 experienced troops that you lose OTL, plus some equipment and vehicles.

If Murmansk is taken, there will be some problems, bit still Archangelsk is open, Vladivostok is open and Iranian rout is open.

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The Arctic Convoys accounted for about 1/4 of the total LL supplies, and Murmansk can be retasked as a U-Boat base, virtually closing off Archangelsk too. More supplies will go through the other routes of course, but it will take time to work out the schedules, and if they're luck the Germans will capture a convoy in harbour.

Don’t have Khrushchev denounce Stalin in 1956; the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact satellites remain Stalinist. Politics in the Kremlin remains a blood sport with regular purges and party members who have fallen out of favour being ‘retired’ in the Sicilian Mafia’s use of the term.

Production goals are set at the highest level and without the least regard to the requirements of the population, failure to meet production goals is treated as sabotage with ‘the guilty’ being exiled to the gulags. Production reports are regularly falsified and bear no resemblance to actual productivity, and the goals for each successive year is set higher than the previous as the Socialist economic success model is expected to continuously grow.

Consequently the Soviet economy goes into terminal decline in the mid to late 1960s and the Soviet Union collapses in the late 1970s amid bread riots, violent suppression and bloody revolution. Picture Rumania writ large without anyone propping the whole thing up.

Thanks for all the input, although I was thinking more of a post OTL WWII conclusion POD. Having the Soviets beaten harder by Hitler via LL reduction isn't too tough, but I was thinking more of not messsing with WWII...

Cook said:

Don’t have Khrushchev denounce Stalin in 1956; the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact satellites remain Stalinist. Politics in the Kremlin remains a blood sport with regular purges and party members who have fallen out of favour being ‘retired’ in the Sicilian Mafia’s use of the term.

Production goals are set at the highest level and without the least regard to the requirements of the population, failure to meet production goals is treated as sabotage with ‘the guilty’ being exiled to the gulags. Production reports are regularly falsified and bear no resemblance to actual productivity, and the goals for each successive year is set higher than the previous as the Socialist economic success model is expected to continuously grow.

Consequently the Soviet economy goes into terminal decline in the mid to late 1960s and the Soviet Union collapses in the late 1970s amid bread riots, violent suppression and bloody revolution. Picture Rumania writ large without anyone propping the whole thing up.

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Now this has promise. I was wondering about the whole Post-Stalin, Stalinist mentality continuing on and what that would imply as well. However, rather than tearing itself apart internally, I was thinking of a somehow much lesssuccessful Operation Paperclip: resulting in the Soviet Union getting their hands on far more German engineers and scientists.
With the results of their going down the same Nazi path of vastly overly complex, massively overly expensive military programs out of paranoia of the West. Only, unlike the Germans, they would have the industrial capacity to actaully pull some of it off: wrecking enormous havoc with economics as the financial losses would all be swept under the rug of falsified reports.
Either way, do you think it's possible to have them collapsed by the time Ameican involvement in Vietnam really kicks off (late 60's)?

An interesting side-note to the increased/continued shipping of "saboteurs" out to the Gulags might be a (slightly?) more heavily populated Siberia/RFE...

Hmm... if there was no oil crisis (because of no car culture in the US, or nuclear power, or just different Arab-Israeli Wars) in the '70s, the Soviets wouldn't get the boost of high prices for their oil exports. Could that result in a collapse by, say, the early to mid-80s?

Mr.J said:

Hmm... if there was no oil crisis (because of no car culture in the US, or nuclear power, or just different Arab-Israeli Wars) in the '70s, the Soviets wouldn't get the boost of high prices for their oil exports. Could that result in a collapse by, say, the early to mid-80s?

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I actually remember hearing about the Soviets being in serious economic problems without their oil boom. Supposedly, if they didn't discover the more recent reserves, then they could have collapsed economically around the Nixon/Ford administration.

MattII said:

The Arctic Convoys accounted for about 1/4 of the total LL supplies, and Murmansk can be retasked as a U-Boat base, virtually closing off Archangelsk too. More supplies will go through the other routes of course, but it will take time to work out the schedules, and if they're luck the Germans will capture a convoy in harbour.

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Well even with 1/4 of LL cut, Soviets wouldn't be beaten. Deffinitely they will not be able to explore for example Kursk. They will not be able from August to October 1943 push and cross Dnieper. But also, without LL they may not go to far after Stalingrad (if it happens anyway) and in doing so, they losses (Charkov 43 for example)could be smaller.
In Germans capturing convoy, or more likely it's cargo captured in harbor could be possible with some luck. But... More likely in case towns is going to fall, it would be destroyed.

MattII said:

OTOH, you get back more than 100,000 experienced troops that you lose OTL, plus some equipment and vehicles.

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How many will reach the lines? How many will be sick and wounded? How long it take to redirect whole army from fighting in the city to open country? How would they attack Soviets line and defend themselves against Soviets attacks? It is winter. So they will dig new trenches every day, or few times a day? No fire wood, open country, no shelter... Well...
I am not so sure it would work.

freivolk said:

After Stalins death the USSR surly were going through a crisis. De-Stalinisation released some pressure, but it could have gone out of controll like Perestroika 30 years later. In the end it came only in Hungary 1956 to an massive uprising and the Soviets could smash it. But before this they compromised in Poland and prevented that things got out of hand there like in Hungary. But what if they tried to get rid of Gomulka through force and it came in Poland to an uprising like in Hungary? I think an uprisng in both countrys could lead to a "critical mass", leading to uprising in the other Satelitte-republics and maybe the USSR itself. So I think 1956/57 is a time where the USSR could have collapsed.

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I hink this is one of best ways to go. Mid-1950s saw a series of uprisings in eastern bloc. You have 1953 one in GDR, 1956 in Poland and Hungary. If somebody else takes power in SU and they are either more harsh, say one of die hard stalinists, or too lenient, say one of more reform minded people. In former case there is massive backlash in Eastern Europe, in latter it becomes what glasnost was, opening the gates to flood and whole system comes crashing down.

It's possible SU would remain as a state, not collapse along OTL lines.

aktarian said:

I hink this is one of best ways to go. Mid-1950s saw a series of uprisings in eastern bloc. You have 1953 one in GDR, 1956 in Poland and Hungary. If somebody else takes power in SU and they are either more harsh, say one of die hard stalinists, or too lenient, say one of more reform minded people. In former case there is massive backlash in Eastern Europe, in latter it becomes what glasnost was, opening the gates to flood and whole system comes crashing down.

It's possible SU would remain as a state, not collapse along OTL lines.

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Let say after Krushev somebody even more weaker is in power and 1968 Prague spring goes without Soviet intervention. In 1969 we probably would have Hungary and Poland go away. Let say, easter Germany afterward. But would fall of Soviet union really follow? It depends on inside situation. If they still can feed the people, they can hold on power inside their borders. Eastern Europe at that time was already depending on oil imports from Soviet Union.

Does it count as Necro-ing a thread, if it's your own thread?

Sorry, been a bit AWOL lately...

All right, I like the above idea: Post Stalinist Soviet Union sees no De-Stalinizaiton, and Moscow Politics continue in the blood-sport it was before Uncle Joe's death.
The mid-50's uprisings are met with massive incopitence by Soviet forces, with tank deployments failing to materialize due to supply shortages and command confusion.
It drags on (because they weren't REALLY going to be able to "win"), and Poland and Hungary kick off early (or some similar Warsaw Pact uprising scenario) and things domino. What ever the intermediary steps, the final straw is Tito breaking with the Soviet Union, and Russia itself has an economic meltdown.

As such, we have the Warsaw Pact falling apart, with the Soviet Union crumbling in... say... Early '60's.

So, what then? The WWII generation is still going strong when America is thrown into a hegemonic situation ala 1991... and Communism has been debunked.

I'm curious about what happens next: especially as many of Europe's Empires are still standing...
(India is free but much of the British Empire still stands in Africa and elsewhere, for example)
Granted, popular uprisings will likely still happen, but the flame-fanning breath of Communist/Socialist USSR is now gone.

What course does the US take as the newly undisputed world leader, and...
What happens to the Colonial Empires without the Soviet fueled popular fuel beneath the flames?

Just playing with the OP

I love the less-successful Op Paperclip POD (give the Sovs MORE Nazi scientists, therefore more resource-devouring boondoggles! Nuclear-powered ekranoplans UNDT Zeppelins!!!!)
!!!!!

IDK about the Warsaw Pact falling apart by 1960, though. You still had the WWII generation of Soviets that went through unimaginable suffering.
They weren't suffering fools at all on their doorstep and didn't mind getting their hands dirty. They'd endure North Korean-level repression and deprivation to avoid another Barbarossa.
Stalin's paranoia was fully justified when dealing with the Nazis. It took two generations before the Soviet Zeitgeist accepted a different world that didn't have genocidal psychopaths out to conquer, exterminate, and enslave them.

For the USSR to collapse earlier, you have to butterfly Barbarossa entirely and the Western interventions in the Russian Civil War to remove the justifications for Soviet siege mentality which Stalin exploited on his rise to power.

Energy is a topic with serious potential for a POD.

A common joke in fiction in the 1970s involved Soviet government meetings where the representative for energy assured all attending on the many triumphs of Soviet energy production. After which various other figures anticipate imminent Soviet energy disasters and how their agencies had planned ahead for those disasters.