Spain and Turkey enter WWII

[Greyfang]

2 years later and I finally post in this subsection!

So, my question is how would WWII be altered if Spain and Turkey join in? Spain presumably joins the Axis around 1942 during Operation Torch (or anytime before) and Turkey joins the Allies around 1942 during Case Blue. How significant will the change be?

[Tongera]

Originally Posted by Greyfang

2 years later and I finally post in this subsection!

So, my question is how would WWII be altered if Spain and Turkey join in? Spain presumably joins the Axis around 1942 during Operation Torch (or anytime before) and Turkey joins the Allies around 1942 during Case Blue. How significant will the change be?

What could they gain? What do they want?

[sparky42]

Originally Posted by Greyfang

2 years later and I finally post in this subsection!

So, my question is how would WWII be altered if Spain and Turkey join in? Spain presumably joins the Axis around 1942 during Operation Torch (or anytime before) and Turkey joins the Allies around 1942 during Case Blue. How significant will the change be?

The doubts I have about this is that by 1942 the US has joined the Allies and Germany has gone after Russia. Meaning that for wither of these nations they are stepping into a major war with uncertain outcomes when they don't need to.

Neither Spain or Turkey are stupid enough to risk things until they could understand how things are going to play out. Just like you had some nations declaring war when it became obvious that the Allies were winning I could see them maybe doing so if the situation had been reversed.

As is I think you would have to come up with a major reason to escalate them into the war.

[Greyfang]

Originally Posted by Tongera

What could they gain? What do they want?

Ah yes, an incentive. I forgot to include that.

Spain joins the Axis because Hitler motivates Franco to take a look around him. The Allies are right around Spanish Africa, the British still have Portugal as an ally (although a neutral and fascist one in this war) and Gibraltar as part of their territory, plenty of anti-fascist talk coming from the Allies, and Franco's old enemy the Soviets on the other side. I suspect this pressure to have almost caused him to declare war.

Turkey had signed a Mutual Aid Pact with France and Britain, but backed out in fear of a possible Soviet invasion after the conquest of Poland. Turkey was a source of chromite which the Axis may have coveted, along with being directly close to the Soviet oil fields which the Axis wished to have eliminated. Let's say Hitler successfully convinced the Turks to allow German troops in, but it remained only a shaky relationship. The Turks take offense at something the Germans did, and bring Hitler back for a talk. He crosses a point that the Turks didn't like, so all German troops have to leave. Hitler doesn't like this, and declares war.

Then what?

[General Greene]

I'm sorry, but that's just not going to cut it in terms of getting Franco to change his mind. You think Hitler didn't try to persuade him? The fact that the Allies are right next to him was exactly one of the reasons Franco didn't join the Axis.

Also, there is no way that Turkey is going to let Nazi troops in. Especially if they were so afraid of the USSR that they pulled out of their agreement with the UK and France.

As far as I can see, you're POD just seems to be "What if Hitler was magically more persuasive with foreign leaders?" You don't have any real significant difference to help explain the change. While I'm sure they're are ways to bring the Spanish and Turks into the war, you don't provide any credible reasons for them to do so.

The idea is an interesting one, but needs much better POD's, probably at least something happening in the Spanish Civil War if not earlier.

[sparky42]

Originally Posted by General Greene

I'm sorry, but that's just not going to cut it in terms of getting Franco to change his mind. You think Hitler didn't try to persuade him? The fact that the Allies are right next to him was exactly one of the reasons Franco didn't join the Axis.

Also, there is no way that Turkey is going to let Nazi troops in. Especially if they were so afraid of the USSR that they pulled out of their agreement with the UK and France.

As far as I can see, you're POD just seems to be "What if Hitler was magically more persuasive with foreign leaders?" You don't have any real significant difference to help explain the change. While I'm sure they're are ways to bring the Spanish and Turks into the war, you don't provide any credible reasons for them to do so.

The idea is an interesting one, but needs much better POD's, probably at least something happening in the Spanish Civil War if not earlier.

At the very least I think it would have to come in the period where the UK and Empire stood alone. After the combination of the USSR and the US comes into play then the chances of two nations that have stayed out of the war just deciding to get involved with all the risks that entails is a bit much to be honest.

[General Greene]

Yeah, that's probably the only time a very small POD could get Franco in on it. Still you need something more than just saying Hitler gives Franco a heart to heart in order to change his refusal in the same period OTL.

Turkey either needs a even more insane Hitler to invade them, or somehow to be on the Axis side. Otherwise it has nothing to gain by joining the war. They have no interest in getting reinvolved in the Balkans.

[Herzen's love-child]

In the right circumstances, might not Turkey go for a little territorial readjustment at the expense of an Axis-allied neighboring country? Meaning Bulgaria, which still had a Turkish minority. It would have to be before Sept. 1944 when Bulgaria left the Axis.
OTL, Turkey had a non-aggression pact with the Nazis until 1944.

Spain flat out isn't going to do more than what they did OTL--send a Spanish division to die in Russia. Franco was smart enough to realize that flat out joining the war allied to the Nazis would offer no long term advantages for his regime. Spain was still picking up the pieces from the Civil War.

[azander12]

Originally Posted by Herzen's love-child

In the right circumstances, might not Turkey go for a little territorial readjustment at the expense of an Axis-allied neighboring country? Meaning Bulgaria, which still had a Turkish minority. It would have to be before Sept. 1944 when Bulgaria left the Axis.
OTL, Turkey had a non-aggression pact with the Nazis until 1944.

I was thinking that. Control of parts of southern Bulgaria with major Turkish and/or Roma populations (plus significant post-war influence in whatever Bulgarian polity emerges), plus perhaps the Aegean islands and some pieces of Thrace could put them on the Allied side somewhat earlier. If Churchill gets his way and Overlord is cancelled in favour of an invasion of the Balkans and southern France, the Turks might get pulled in with Allied bribes. A couple dozen divisions, even poorly armed and trained, would still cause a major headache for the Germans and could help secure liberated territory.

[JRScott]

Turkey has chosen a bad time to enter, they should of entered when Greece was still free. Ultimately their ships will have little effect as they have so few they'll need them to guard their own coastline so they can't help the British farther out than say Cyprus.

Their military can harass the back lines of the Germans seeking to draw a little pressure off the Russians. The danger here is that German divisions could choose to knock Turkey out as a result, using Italian troops from Greece to attack into Turkey as well as the retreating divisions from Russia.

This would probably help Russia out in the short term which is good because they needed a second front and well the British and Americans are being slow on that front.

Spain's entry has much more dire consequences for the alliance. Though she lacks Battleships and Carriers having lost her dreadnoughts in the civil war she does have submarines and air power. Operation Torch is in serious danger.

Not only can the German U-Boats attack the convoy SL 125, but they have enough subs with the Spanish ones to also pick off some of the Operation torch troop transports.

German and Spanish air support from Spain will make landings of the Center and Eastern Task Forces nearly impossible. The Tuskagee Airmen on their first combat mission will probably suffer heavy losses trying to guard the convoys. The loss of these expert pilots will have severe consequences for years to come, they were one of the most successful bomber escorts in the war, they never lost a bomber, without them there or at full strength all future bombing missions they would have covered are jeopardy.

I believe both the Center and Eastern Task Forces will have to divert after losses to the Western Task Force zone before they pass Gibraltar this means the important ports/airbases in Vichy France will remain intact.

Spain's army is going to attack Gibraltar and cut off its supplies as well starving it to death if need be.

As the Western Task Force and the others are clearly doing an amphibious assault the Spanish subs will target the troop transports. Probably half the landing force in all three Task Forces will be lost. This will cause some initial problems as they try to secure Casablanca but I do believe they'd still make a beachhead. This is going to be a much more bloody and longer term African campaign than historically and with Gibraltar lost they will have no chance to easily resupply as they move east. That means long supply lines in line of Spanish, German and Vichy French bombers. The subs and u-boats will make resupplying Africa without Gibraltar exceedingly difficult, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the Allies ultimately lose in Africa with Rommel whose supply lines are now secure running over them.

Gibraltar's loss means that the Axis will dominate the Med, and will easily take control of all of it by early 43. This will take time as they'll seek to take Malta etc before concentrating their air and naval assets against Turkey.

Still Turkey's entry won't make it a total wash as they will give Stalin some breathing room. But it is doubtful without reinforcement that Turkey will hold. Germany most likely will entrench before the Soviets and attack Turkey, this would give them another zone to launch attacks into the Soviet Union.

[Greyfang]

Originally Posted by General Greene

I'm sorry, but that's just not going to cut it in terms of getting Franco to change his mind. You think Hitler didn't try to persuade him? The fact that the Allies are right next to him was exactly one of the reasons Franco didn't join the Axis.

Also, there is no way that Turkey is going to let Nazi troops in. Especially if they were so afraid of the USSR that they pulled out of their agreement with the UK and France.

As far as I can see, you're POD just seems to be "What if Hitler was magically more persuasive with foreign leaders?" You don't have any real significant difference to help explain the change. While I'm sure they're are ways to bring the Spanish and Turks into the war, you don't provide any credible reasons for them to do so.

The idea is an interesting one, but needs much better POD's, probably at least something happening in the Spanish Civil War if not earlier.

Well....yes, that's basically it. I'm more interested in how the two countries could effect World War II at the time they join in, not their incentives to actually join it.

[Tongera]

Originally Posted by azander12

I was thinking that. Control of parts of southern Bulgaria with major Turkish and/or Roma populations (plus significant post-war influence in whatever Bulgarian polity emerges), plus perhaps the Aegean islands and some pieces of Thrace could put them on the Allied side somewhat earlier. If Churchill gets his way and Overlord is cancelled in favour of an invasion of the Balkans and southern France, the Turks might get pulled in with Allied bribes. A couple dozen divisions, even poorly armed and trained, would still cause a major headache for the Germans and could help secure liberated territory.

What parts of Thrace exactly?

[azander12]

Originally Posted by Tongera

What parts of Thrace exactly?

The east, up until roughly the Komotini area. It would mostly be a pride/buffer to the Bosporus thing.

[basileus]

1942 ia too late. Maybe it's possible during the summer of 1940, when France lay prostrated and defeated and Britain was alone.

[deh74]

i don't think that spain could cause much of a difference to the war because they would probably end up needing german help every time it invaded someone so in fact the war in europe would probably have ended quicker because german forces would be spread even thinner helping spain as well as fighting turkey in the balkans.

[Greyfang]

Originally Posted by deh74

i don't think that spain could cause much of a difference to the war because they would probably end up needing german help every time it invaded someone so in fact the war in europe would probably have ended quicker because german forces would be spread even thinner helping spain as well as fighting turkey in the balkans.

Spain isn't Italy. I expect them to be more helpful.

[sparky42]

Originally Posted by Greyfang

Spain isn't Italy. I expect them to be more helpful.

How does that work?

Spain was just out of a heavy Civil war with infrastructural damage, and a far weaker industrial base, navy, airforce.

How do you think that they could in any way bring more to the War than Italy?

[deh74]

Originally Posted by sparky42

How does that work?

Spain was just out of a heavy Civil war with infrastructural damage, and a far weaker industrial base, navy, airforce.

How do you think that they could in any way bring more to the War than Italy?

exactly. other than the fact that it would be easy-ish for them to establish control other gibraltar

[sparky42]

Originally Posted by deh74

exactly. other than the fact that it would be easy-ish for them to establish control other gibraltar

I would think that if there was an attempt by the Spanish to try taking the Rock that perhaps the English would kick lose some units to counter them and perhaps take the Spanish colonies instead.

[JRScott]

Originally Posted by deh74

exactly. other than the fact that it would be easy-ish for them to establish control other gibraltar

I think you mean over, and yep that's the key with Spain's entry, effectively cuts off Gibraltar which has huge strategic importance, without it the war in Africa, Italy etc would not have gone anywhere near as good.

The other main value strategically is their sub fleet, means more subs to harass convoys and disrupt allied movements.

However D-Day won't be in France in this scenario, if it comes my bet would be it would be in the far less fortified Spain mainly due to the fact you need Gibraltar back.

It's going to draw the war out in Europe for sure, which means those first atomic bombs might not hit Japan, but might hit Germany.