Would Reagan have blocked German re-unification?

Let's handwavingly say that the Fall of the Berlin Wall happens 2 years before it did OTL. I'm not quite sure how this is possible, since it probably needs Gorbachev to become Soviet leader at a slightly earlier point, which is difficult - having Andropov & Chernenko die before Brezhnev wouldn't work since Gorby would not be in a position to asssume the leadership in 1982.

But anyway, lets assume that German reunification is a major issue in 1988, rather than in 1990. Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterand were both initially against German reunification happening immediately and wanted to delay it. George Bush Snr (who sought Kohl as the European leader with whom he could have the closest relationship) ignored their concerns and gave his blessing to immediate reunification, forcing the UK and France to backdown in their opposition.

But if it happened 2 years earlier and Reagan had been president, would Ronald have, like his political soulmate Maggie, have been against German reunification happening so quickly? Would Thatcher have had any influence on him in this matter?

Reagan was the master communicator. Still, having so famously called for the wall to torn down, it would have been hard for his administration to be like, "...Uh, well, tear that wall down, but you know, slowly...."

I didn't mean "could he have stopped the Fall of the Berlin wall" - I meant after that event happens (in 1987 instead of 1989), would Reagan have desired to/been able to delay German reunification?

The "tear down this wall" speech came in June 1987, maybe a little late in this timeline. But even though I was a teenager the time, I remember the Wall itself being a symbol of divided Germany. You couldn't have one without the other.

Besides, could you have a GDR without some sort of physical border keeping everybody in and treking west as fast they could? Both Thatcher and Mitterand feared some sort of Fourth Reich but again, that would be a hard sell to the American public.

Maybe - just maybe - if the CIA had been on the ball and actually predicted the wall was going to tumble, the groundwork could have been laid in 1985 or 1986, via studies coming out from friendly think tanks and annonymous briefings by administration officials. Americans hate Nazis worse than commies and that might have down the trick.

No, Reagan would even push the German unification !
It was the perfect opportunity to get a piece of east block into NATO and send the stationed Soviet Army back to USSR.

WI Gorbachev not come to power but a conservative ?
how now opposed the German unification and to threaten with War even use of nuclear weapons.
here Reagan would block the the German unification, but only temporally
then after somme time, the USSR will collapse, it just will only delay the unification of Germany.

After the Berlin Wall fell there was nothing holding up the GDR as a state. Bureaucrats and Party officials at all levels were running away from rioters. Thousands of East Germans were voting with their feet each day. And most importantly the East German state encountered financial difficulties making it politically dependent on western aid.

In these circumstances if the west attempted seriously to block German reunification, even fair-minded Germans will feel betrayed and humiliated by the west.

As for a hardline Soviet leader using nukes to oppose German reunification, there's a 1998 Made for TV movie on that topic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zO-BLggwqRU

Don't really see what the alternative would've been. A non-communist Eastern Germany just wouldn't be viable as there'd be a hemorrhage of people to the West, especially young working age people. It'd be really really hard to get the revenue to keep a social safety net (as the people who'd depend on it the most like the old would probably be the least likely to leave) and the state would be pretty lacking in legitimacy.

It's the same basic deal as with modern Korea, unification will create all kinds of messes so people come up with all kinds of plans by which North Korea could reform without unifying with the South but they're all pretty unworkable.

I believe he would of been for it.

Why?

Mitterand and Thatcher had some irrational mental leftovers from WW2. On a personal level Mitterand wanted to be The Big Man within the EU politics, and a Kohl that reunited BDR and DDR would be far Bigger. France also knew that a strong Germany would out-compete France on all levels.

But Reagan didn't have to share any of these views. The US have never had the same fear of Germany as France have. Who was the biggest on the Continent were uninteresting for Reagan.

Let's face it: when the Berlin wall fell it was clear that the Soviet Union would follow. Gorbachov had given up the eternal struggle between marxist-leninism and capitalism that was the basis for the Soviet Union. The Baltic republics wanted out. The end of history was near - and with liberal market democraties everywhere the US had little interest if Germany united or not. Military bases and options would be of far less use/demand than before. Just look at the military cutbacks during the 1990s.

In the end the reunification was impossible to stop (except for with Soviet nukes). Would NATO invade Germany to stop the reunification? Kohl could always hold a german referendum on reunification and get around 80% support while reduciling Mitterand and Thatcher as political fossils or putting their own self interest before what is best for everyone. And the White House would know that.

superkuf said:

Gorbachov had given up the eternal struggle between marxist-leninism and capitalism that was the basis for the Soviet Union.

Click to expand...

That wasn't the basis for the Soviet Union, man. The Soviet Union was a totalitarian state capitalist shithole that tried to pass itself off as communist when it was nowhere near.

Unlikely Reagan would have blocked German re unification since he wouldn't have cared too much about it.

He was anti Communist and that was it. There's little to suggest that his foreign policy ideas went any deeper than that.

Both Thatcher and Mitterrand came from the WW2 era and served during that period so I think it is understandable from their viewpoint as they may have sincerely thought that German reunification would result in a neo-Nazi Fourth Reich, which is extremely unlikely and definitely ASB.

This is the man who laid wreaths at an SS cemetary - I hardly think he would refuse to support German reunification because of fears that Nazism would rise again in Germany.

He didn't personally lay the wreaths, although he was present- that incident is somewhat charming due to a lack of research (US didn't know Wehrmacht SS and regular army units shared grave sites), political favors due (nuclear cruise missiles I believe), and people with the last name of Buchanan (the previous one almost personally caused the US Civil War).

I do think that Reagan would have supported reunification- he seemed to have an optimistic view of the future, people, and nations, so I doubt he would fear a 4th Reich. Also, he had decried Soviet imperialism, so enforcing a 2 Germany solution would feel hypocritical, especially since Kohl wanted the reunion. Plus, the fact that the German government had backed him loyally when hundreds of thousands of West Germans protested nuclear missiles being located in Germany means State Dept might feel compelled to go along...

I think Reagan would have stood watching and making the comment me and my classmates did the day after they opened the gates "WTF did we just see?"