hey, all. ive asked around a few times before about how Napoleon could ultimately succeed and get a hegemony over Europe, but have never really gotten anything conclusive. i've worked out most of it already, but now the only thing standing in the way of writing more of the timeline is Waterloo itself. a Napoleonic victory at Waterloo can come about any way that isn't ASB, but has the provision that only Britain and Prussia are necessarily part of the Seventh Coalition; other powers involved historically can variably be neutral or allied to France (though more would be neutral). specifically, Austria and Russia will be neutral here. France must also be in good enough shape to keep fighting after Waterloo; there is also no French invasion of Russia ITTL, so Napoleon has at least 685,000 more soldiers than IOTL
How Could Napoleon Win at Waterloo?
- Thread starter oshron
- Start date
The battle? In theory, yes, but by 1815 the British and their allies had Napoleon figured out. He's not winning the war.
Anaxagoras
Banned
A command mix-up certainly would have helped. He should have had Davout in the field commanding a corps rather than administering things back in Paris. He should have had someone other than Soult as chief-of-staff and kept Soult in his place at the head of an infantry corps. And he should have taken Murat up on his offer to command the cavalry; the guy might be a traitorous scumbag, but Napoleon could have seen that Murat's back was to the wall as well and, when you get right down to it, the guy was a damn fine cavalry commander. If these changes were made, I believe Napoleon would have won the battle pretty handily.
Aside from that, another easy POD is to have Blucher be killed at the Battle of Ligny (as he very nearly was IOTL). That done, the Prussians would probably have retreated to the northeast after their defeat, away from Wellington. And without the Prussians arriving to save the day, Wellington would likely have lost.
Or have the weather change. If it had not rained so much the night before the battle, the French could have begun their attack earlier (they delayed to give the ground time to dry in order to place their cannon). If the attack starts earlier, the Prussians probably won't arrive in time.
Aside from that, another easy POD is to have Blucher be killed at the Battle of Ligny (as he very nearly was IOTL). That done, the Prussians would probably have retreated to the northeast after their defeat, away from Wellington. And without the Prussians arriving to save the day, Wellington would likely have lost.
Or have the weather change. If it had not rained so much the night before the battle, the French could have begun their attack earlier (they delayed to give the ground time to dry in order to place their cannon). If the attack starts earlier, the Prussians probably won't arrive in time.
Anaxagoras
Banned
But in 1815, the "allies" were on the verge of political fragmentation, with a Prussia/Russia vs. Britain/Austria conflict appearing imminent. If Napoleon wins some of the opening rounds, there's no telling what might happen. And 1814 showed that Napoleon could still take on and smash armies much more powerful than his own.
out of curiosity, what does everyone think would happen to Wellesley, specifically, if he's defeated at Waterloo and escapes death during the battle? would be be captured and imprisoned by the French, executed, or returned to Britain at some point? or, in a reversal of history, would Wellesley perhaps be sent into exile (and perhaps stripped of his title)?
The Allies are much more concerned about NApoleon than their own quarrels there, that's the problem.
Anaxagoras
Banned
It appears that way IOTL, sure. But it was somewhat surprising that Napoleon was defeated so quickly in 1815. Assuming that he won the opening rounds and a longer and more difficult war beckoned, things could obviously change.
Yes, the idea that Napoleon is dangerous will be strengthened.
You want the Allies falling out, you need it to look like combining against Napoleon isn't necessary, not Napoleon justifying "compared to this, our quarrels are petty".
But there won't be a longer war. All of Europe's Imperialist powers have been at war with Napoleon for 20 years. Britain in particular has basically fought three undeclared world wars back to back to back, the Seven Years' War, the American Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars. All of Europe is exhausted and they want to end it. Now.
Last edited:
Not to mention France being exhausted and not able to support another long drawn out war, so Napoleon is . . pretty much dependent on the Allies just giving up.
Exactly. After 20 years of war, the Seventh Coalition is approaching the end of its rope and the Allied generals knew it, but they've finally figured Napoleon out, and they are going to put him down, one way or another, and as quickly as possible. So Napoleon can win at Waterloo and postpone the inevitable for a while, but for Napoleon, the war is lost.
Last edited:
Battles are chaotic places, but no, he would not be executed, he would at the most be a POW. Furthermore, there is no way he would get exiled or stripped of his title. The British simply just didn't do that with failed commanders. He could get cashiered, and fade from political prominence, but it should also be remembered that Lord Cornwallis was made Governor General of India after his defeat at Yorktown, and also was in charge of crushing the Irish rebellion of 1798. General Burgoyne was also made commander-in-chief in Ireland and even a Privy Councilor even after his defeat and the general contempt with which he was regarded for it. If things work out for Wellesley thanks to the right personal connections, he could even make out with minimal damage to his political position and reputation.
Flocculencio
Donor
Yup- actually given Wellesley's experience with India it's even more likely that he gets shipped off there.
As long as Napoleon is in power the Allies will keep fighting him. There is no way the Coalition will collapse until Bonaparte is defeated. Just look at the language the Coalition states used when they declared war on Napoleon himself.
WI Waterloo was a crushing defeat for the Coalition, but Napoleon was wounded and died shortly afterwards?
then the Austrians and Russians would march into France, seize Paris, topple whats left of the Bonaparte loyalists and reinstate the Bourbons. Likely if bonaparte died his former generals would surrender en masse
You're right, considering the fact that both the Russians (200,000*) and the Austrians (with some other smaller German states: 264,500*) had armies heading towards France. By 1815 Napoleonic France was severely outnumbered. Well that were the men at their disposal for an invasion, so I'm not even counting reserves.
All in all France could at maximum mobilization field 300,000, whereas the coalition had 1000,000 men.
(*=approximately)
Last edited: