Soyuz 80: Soviet Troops Enter Poland in 1981

[alternatehistorian]

On 1 December 1980, the Soviets revealed their plans to send in 18 divisions into Poland to put down the Solidarity movement (15 Soviet divisions, 2 Czech division and one E German.) to the deputy chief of the Polish General Staff.

The forces were to enter Poland under the guise of Warsaw Pact maneuvers code named Soyuz 80. But the troops would carry live ammo and move to surround major Polish cities and industrial centers. Four Polish Army divisions were to join latter.

POD: On 5 December 1980, during a meeting of the Warsaw Pact in Moscow, the decision is made for Soyuz 80 to commence because the Soviets do not believe that Jaruzelski, who has suggested his own plan to put down the opposition movement, will be successful. While the risks of intervention are great as are its costs, losing Poland might lead to the unraveling of the entire Eastern Block.

In September, Soviet troops are amassing on Poland's border under cover of military exercize Zapad-81.

Aware of the Soviet troops movements and divisions massing on the Polish border, Zbigniew Brzezinski warns the Soviets that entry of Soviet troops into Poland will be met with a sharp response from the US. The Soviet Ambassador in Washington delivers a response from Moscow: any attempt by the US to intervene militarily will be construed by the Soviet Union as an act of war and be met with a nuclear response.

1 December 1981: Soviet troops enter Poland. The public is told that this is part of Warsaw Pact maneuvers. But Solidarity leadership is told by the CIA that the Soviet troops are carrying live ammo.

[Catspoke]

Even with Reagan as President its hard to believe the USA would go to war over Poland, its not strategically important to the USA and its next door to the Soviet Union. Reagan foreign policy was wise and only pushed back in OTL on the periphery of the Soviet client states, Angola, Grenada etc..

But what kind of response can the US make?, cold war is frosty already after Afghanistan. The Grain embargo was ended in April 1981 as ineffective, becasuse unless countries like Argentina get onboard the Soviets can get grain elsewhere.

Likely this just makes it easier to pass military spending bills in the west, allows Reagan to pick on the Contras and such with less interference.

Poland is crushed, but pretty much requires a permanent Soviet occupation, another festuring financial hole when Afghanistan is going on.

[mowque]

Crushing a backward Asian place like Afghanistan is quite a different kettle of fish then crushing Poland, right in Europe.

[Georgepatton]

Originally Posted by mowque

Crushing a backward Asian place like Afghanistan is quite a different kettle of fish then crushing Poland, right in Europe.

Especially because any refugees are going to be pouring into Western European countries.

[Grimm Reaper]

Poland ceases to exist as a member of the Warsaw Pact as the Polish military must be disbanded and probably goes down fighting.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Georgepatton

Especially because any refugees are going to be pouring into Western European countries.

And how exactly when Poland was surounded by communist countries ( E. Germany, Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union ) and short shoreline in Baltic Sea is easily blocaded by the Soviet Navy?

[Dementor]

Very unlikely, the Soviets had definitely decided not to intervene in Poland. Andropov said that they would not intervene even if Poland was taken over by Solidarity.

[Georgepatton]

Originally Posted by abc123

And how exactly when Poland was surounded by communist countries ( E. Germany, Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union ) and short shoreline in Baltic Sea is easily blocaded by the Soviet Navy?

Depends on how well they want to enforce that cordon, and how fast they're able to put it in place.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by mowque

Crushing a backward Asian place like Afghanistan is quite a different kettle of fish then crushing Poland, right in Europe.

And given that the Soviet union couldn't crush Afghanistan...
ctually, crushing Poland woud be easier, there's not the same suicidal faith driven love of fighting and lack of value for life that there is in Afghanistan.
Or Mountains.

Originally Posted by abc123

And how exactly when Poland was surounded by communist countries ( E. Germany, Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union ) and short shoreline in Baltic Sea is easily blocaded by the Soviet Navy?

You say that, I have no doubt that there would be sympathetic people in the Baltic states that would assist the Poles in getting over the Baltic to Finland or Sweden. The suggestion that the Czechs would automatically block Poles escaping may not be the case. Tens of thousands of East Germans escaped to West Germany through the Czechslovakia.
It's not a given that, East Germany aside, any of the other countries would actively block Poles from leaving.

[alternatehistorian]

Originally Posted by Dementor

Very unlikely, the Soviets had definitely decided not to intervene in Poland. Andropov said that they would not intervene even if Poland was taken over by Solidarity.

That's true, but on the condition that the Soviets would have access to East Germany. Perhaps Andropov is dissuaded that such access will be possible. And Honecker warns him that permitting such independence in Poland will very likely lead to unrest in East Germany and other block countries.

[Herzen's love-child]

All I see happening in this unlikely scenario is that the CCCP (and the Warsaw Pact) implodes earlier from all the economic, social, nationalistic and ideological tensions and contradictions unleashed by such a debacle.

[alternatehistorian]

Originally Posted by Herzen's love-child

All I see happening in this unlikely scenario is that the CCCP (and the Warsaw Pact) implodes earlier from all the economic, social, nationalistic and ideological tensions and contradictions unleashed by such a debacle.

What, specifically, is unlikely about the Soviets deciding to become aggressive and protecting their world? Them giving up was actually highly unlikely. Recall that nobody in the West really thought that the Soviets would fall flat on their face as they did, certainly not in 1981.

[Herzen's love-child]

It is of course by looking at things in retrospect. You are right that no one foresaw the Soviet Union's ending. However, knowing what we know today (dissension in upper Soviet ranks about an invasion of Poland as opposed to letting internal forces working things out, the Soviets being engaged and increasingly bogged down in Afghanistan) and just how tenuous the Soviet economy had become by the 80's, for example), I think that my perspective is likely. What's more, the Soviet leadership was apparently cognizant of some of the dangers of overextension and of the negative effects of directly intervening in Poland spilling over into other members of the Warsaw Pact. Just because they didn't want to "give things up" doesn't mean the USSR leadership wasn't occasionally capable of competent risk management and making the best of a bad situation.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Hold it. The Russian invasion of Poland to crush a Union (Solidarity) is code named Union? ???

OK, so a worker's collective probably isn't called a "Soyuz", it may only be a problem in English. Still. Weird.

[mowque]

Originally Posted by Dan

And given that the Soviet union couldn't crush Afghanistan...
ctually, crushing Poland woud be easier, there's not the same suicidal faith driven love of fighting and lack of value for life that there is in Afghanistan.
Or Mountains.

I meant politically.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Dan

And given that the Soviet union couldn't crush Afghanistan...
ctually, crushing Poland woud be easier, there's not the same suicidal faith driven love of fighting and lack of value for life that there is in Afghanistan.
Or Mountains.

I think it's mostly the mountains and fighting spirit, not lack of value for life.

[Paul V McNutt]

I see a guerilla war.

[Zireael]

Originally Posted by Paul V McNutt

I see a guerilla war.

So do I. The Poles wouldn't just lay down and surrender. The sympathetic Czechs (remember 1956?) would probably do their best to help.

And yes, I can see people escaping either to Scandinavia via Baltic or to West Europe via East Germany or Czechoslovakia...

[AdA]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

Poland ceases to exist as a member of the Warsaw Pact as the Polish military must be disbanded and probably goes down fighting.

Thats the whole point. If the Polish Army fights the invasion, even if it looses rapidly, the whole Warsaw pact logic goes down the drain. And while its hard to judge what they would have done back then, everything the Polish Army has done since then reinforces the view that they would have fought against an invasion, and fought well.

[The Ubbergeek]

Originally Posted by Dan

And given that the Soviet union couldn't crush Afghanistan...
ctually, crushing Poland woud be easier, there's not the same suicidal faith driven love of fighting and lack of value for life that there is in Afghanistan.
Or Mountains.

Hey lad, I saw what you did there - nice way to put an anti-muslims snark there.