German WI: No Spiegelaffäre

freivolk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiegel_scandal

I have recently heard, that several month before the Spiegelaffäre, Strauß, weary of the permanet attacks of the Spiegel, toyed with the idea of retiring as Defense minister and becoming Prime Minister of Bavaria.
In the end a combination of resistance by the conservative wing of the CSU (which considered Strauß as to liberal:D) and Adenauers unwillingness to let Strauß go prevented this idea, but what if Strauß put it through and goes to Munich?
Without him as Defence minister, the Spiegelaffäre will propably never happend. Maybe the Spiegel will not even print the Articel, which was meant as a special attack on Strauß Nuclear strategy.

So, if this happens, how will West-Germany develope. Will Adenauer kling some more time on Power and maybe prevent his unlowed crown-prince Ludwig Ehrhard becoming chancellor? And if Ehrhard still becomes chancellor, will an untarnished Strauß maybe become his successor in 1966? And how will the political culture in West-Germany develope.
 
Petike

Petike

Ah, this is a good one. Post-WWII German PODs are rare. I know a bit about the case, but I too hope some of our German members will post in this thread. :)
 

Nekronion

Strauß will definetly have stronger influence than OTL, as the Spiegelaffäre damaged his reputation. I can see him becoming chancellor as like OTL Adenauer will hate the thought of Erhard becoming chancellor and with Strauß as a viable alternative, he will probably support him. Strauß as chancellor hm well lets just say West Germany will get it's own nukes.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
freivolk said:
So, if this happens, how will West-Germany develope. Will Adenauer kling some more time on Power and maybe prevent his unlowed crown-prince Ludwig Ehrhard becoming chancellor? And if Ehrhard still becomes chancellor, will an untarnished Strauß maybe become his successor in 1966? And how will the political culture in West-Germany develope.
Click to expand...

I guess not that much (apart from a zillion squadrons of the usual butterflies). The basic political conflicts would evolve anyway, and FJS would be in much better position as MP of Bavaria. However, things inside of the conservative/free-democrat camp would become interesting in the chinese sense soon. FJS hated the free democrats even more than the social democrats. Could a FJS in a much stronger position in the Union (CDU and CSU) push the FDP much deeper into the SPD camp than during the 70s ?

Also, remember Wildbad Kreuth: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU#Kreuther_Trennungsbeschluss. Would a MP Strauss push the whole thing trough ?

FJS became IOTL MP of Bavaria as late as 1978, and after the federal elections in 1980 the basic scores among the conservatives were settled, meaning that FJS was not the Alpha male anymore. Him being in charge of Bavaria from the mid-60s could result in political brinkmanship much earlier. I assume the SPD(+FDP) would be in charge sooner or later in the late60s/early70s.

So I could imagine trying to get into control of the conservatives much sooner. Either he is successful and becomes conservative candidate in '76 (or even '72). I guess a much more right-winged Union would fail in both cases (but then again, don't underestimate FJS). This TL would probably quite similar to ours at the end.

An angry FJS deciding to nuke his own partner-party in order to become a major player on federal level would probably have a major impact on German politics. On the short term, it would destroy any chances for the conservatives to get back into power. It is a save bet that in many cases, the CSU would fall below the 5% hurdle in state elections outside Bavaria, thus giving the SPD a stronger hold on power by controlling the Bundesrat (the upper house e.g. like Senate in the US). This could extend the SPD/FDP era far into the 80s. Probably sooner or later the situation would stabilize. FJS died IOTL in '88, so we have a leaderless, but strong right-winged party in Germany. In '89, the Wall falls.
 
Michel Van

Michel Van

no Spiegelaffäre, could had consolidated Franz Joseph Strauß in West german politic, even so much he could become chancellor !

but on other side of zillion squadrons of the usual butterflies lies this:

October 1962
Germans troops on order of war-minister Franz Joseph Strauß, attack a US Nuclear weapon Depo.
the Plan to steal the nuclear weapon + carriersystem and make a preventive strike, on Soviet Union Forces on East germany !
see this for more detail
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=255184
 
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freivolk

Nebogipfel said:
I guess not that much (apart from a zillion squadrons of the usual butterflies). The basic political conflicts would evolve anyway, and FJS would be in much better position as MP of Bavaria. However, things inside of the conservative/free-democrat camp would become interesting in the chinese sense soon. FJS hated the free democrats even more than the social democrats. Could a FJS in a much stronger position in the Union (CDU and CSU) push the FDP much deeper into the SPD camp than during the 70s ?

Also, remember Wildbad Kreuth: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU#Kreuther_Trennungsbeschluss. Would a MP Strauss push the whole thing trough ?

FJS became IOTL MP of Bavaria as late as 1978, and after the federal elections in 1980 the basic scores among the conservatives were settled, meaning that FJS was not the Alpha male anymore. Him being in charge of Bavaria from the mid-60s could result in political brinkmanship much earlier. I assume the SPD(+FDP) would be in charge sooner or later in the late60s/early70s.

So I could imagine trying to get into control of the conservatives much sooner. Either he is successful and becomes conservative candidate in '76 (or even '72). I guess a much more right-winged Union would fail in both cases (but then again, don't underestimate FJS). This TL would probably quite similar to ours at the end.

An angry FJS deciding to nuke his own partner-party in order to become a major player on federal level would probably have a major impact on German politics. On the short term, it would destroy any chances for the conservatives to get back into power. It is a save bet that in many cases, the CSU would fall below the 5% hurdle in state elections outside Bavaria, thus giving the SPD a stronger hold on power by controlling the Bundesrat (the upper house e.g. like Senate in the US). This could extend the SPD/FDP era far into the 80s. Probably sooner or later the situation would stabilize. FJS died IOTL in '88, so we have a leaderless, but strong right-winged party in Germany. In '89, the Wall falls.
Click to expand...


I think Strauß hate against the FDP originated especially out of the Spiegelaffäre, because the FDP enforced his retirement and later blocked his return into the goverment. Before this his relation with the FDP seemed to be rather good and he even plotted with the FDP against Adenauer after the Federal election of 1961. And in summer 1962 he would needed FDP-votes to become Ministerpräsident of Bavaria. So Strauß would be in 1966 ironicly a chancellor acceptable for FDP and SPD.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
Michel Van said:
October 1962
Germans troops on oder of Franz Joseph Strauss, attack a US Nuclear weapon Depo.
the Plan to steal the nuclear weapon + carriersystem and make a preventive strike,
on Soviet Union Forces on East germany !
see this for more detail
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=255184
Click to expand...

He had about a snowballs chance in hell to even come close to pull this thing through (and knew it). But then again, Spiegelaffäre and Cuba Crisis actually overlapped in late Ocober '62 :eek:

A desperate FJS, fearing his secret world-domination plot will be revealed manages to provoke WWIII with a completely inane attack on US nuclear installations :D:D
 

Max Sinister

Banned
Even if he became MP of Bavaria, he might return to Bonn if the opportunity is right. AFAIK he dreamed of a big super-ministry for security (Inner affairs + Justice + Defense?) in 1982, but it didn't happen. Maybe in a different Great Coalition?

Or would we even see a chancellor Strauß? Now that would have consequences...

But even so, Strauß had many affairs, and if he didn't fall over one, then over another.
 

freivolk

I think once he would be the first in Munich, Strauß will never settle for the second place in Bonn. If he returns, then as chancellor.
So lets say, Strauß is Chancellor of a great coalation 1966-69 and with a absolut majority 1969-1973. What would he do? One thing is sure, Strauß really wanted german nukes.
 
Michel Van

Michel Van

freivolk said:
I think once he would be the first in Munich, Strauß will never settle for the second place in Bonn. If he returns, then as chancellor.
So lets say, Strauß is Chancellor of a great coalation 1966-69 and with a absolut majority 1969-1973. What would he do? One thing is sure, Strauß really wanted german nukes.
Click to expand...

He wanted german nuclear weapons
but gave up that idea as France tested there first Atomic Bomb.
he had say to one of worker this:

"With French Atomic bomb, we don't need our self build one. We got now a independent European nuclear weapon"
note: is unclear if Strauß had say like this, the only second qoute from his worker on TV-Doku about French Atomic bomb and Germany help on it
Click to expand...

His work as chancellor, would be same as Mininster-president of Bavaria
make West Germany into High tech industry State special on aerospace like Airbus (it was his idea for the Airbus consortium )
European politics he wanted a unification of "Europe as United States of Europe"

if not the Lockheed bribery scandals become his down fall...
 

freivolk

Michel Van said:
He wanted german nuclear weapons
but gave up that idea as France tested there first Atomic Bomb.
he had say to one of worker this:



His work as chancellor, would be same as Mininster-president of Bavaria
make West Germany into High tech industry State special on aerospace like Airbus (it was his idea for the Airbus consortium )
European politics he wanted a unification of "Europe as United States of Europe"

if not the Lockheed bribery scandals become his down fall...
Click to expand...

Lockheed wouldn´t become critical till 1975 and in OTL it didn´t hurt Strauß really much.
Still I wonder: In OTL Strauß was in the end political practicly undestructibel. The CSU would never ditch him as chairman and after 1978 as Ministerpräsident. Was it maybe the Spiegelaffäre which made him so undestructibel, by creating "us against them"-mentality in the CSU. Like I said in the original post there was resistance in the CSU against him becoming MP in 1962. The Spiegelaffäre propably robbed Strauß of any chance becoming chanccelor, but without her he may have been much more fulnerable against internal conflict in the CSU.

To the nukes-question: In the new Kohl-biograpfie stands that Strauß talked about the need for nuclear weapons for Germany even in the late seventies.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
freivolk said:
Lockheed wouldn´t become critical till 1975 and in OTL it didn´t hurt Strauß really much.
Still I wonder: In OTL Strauß was in the end political practicly undestructibel. The CSU would never ditch him as chairman and after 1978 as Ministerpräsident. Was it maybe the Spiegelaffäre which made him so undestructibel, by creating "us against them"-mentality in the CSU. Like I said in the original post there was resistance in the CSU against him becoming MP in 1962. The Spiegelaffäre propably robbed Strauß of any chance becoming chanccelor, but without her he may have been much more fulnerable against internal conflict in the CSU.

To the nukes-question: In the new Kohl-biograpfie stands that Strauß talked about the need for nuclear weapons for Germany even in the late seventies.
Click to expand...

'Last Days of America' by Paul Erdman (1980) features a chancellor Strauss
with nuclear weapons.

I don't think he would have went that far. We talk about a different time, I think the attempt would have killed him politically (altough I might be wrong, are there any polls etc about public opinion in this regard from that time ?)

Also, the political climate of the time was not necessarily in favor of Strauss, I cannot imagine an absolute majority for him in '69 nationwide. After 20 years of conservatives in charge, it is safe to assume that people would vote for any acceptable candidate of the opposition.
 

freivolk

Nebogipfel said:
'Last Days of America' by Paul Erdman (1980) features a chancellor Strauss
with nuclear weapons.

I don't think he would have went that far. We talk about a different time, I think the attempt would have killed him politically (altough I might be wrong, are there any polls etc about public opinion in this regard from that time ?)

Also, the political climate of the time was not necessarily in favor of Strauss, I cannot imagine an absolute majority for him in '69 nationwide. After 20 years of conservatives in charge, it is safe to assume that people would vote for any acceptable candidate of the opposition.
Click to expand...
The CDU/CSU nearly got a absolut majority in 1969, the right-wing NPD won 4,3%, huge SPD wins were contradicted by huge FDP losse, so that SPD and FDP together actually lost 0,3% against 1965. What makes 1969 a strange election is, that a clear majority of the voters voted for right-wing parties and it ended in a left-wing goverment. So I think a absolut majority for Strauß is at least a possiblity.

Last days of America was an intersting book. Paul Erdman shows in all his books a massive hate for us decadent europeans.
 
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