Latest possible PoD resulting in no European Superpower Status?

[willbell]

What is the latest possible Point of Divergence when the Europeans could be screwed enough that they couldn't have spread their power to the extent that they did OTL. Could it be later than 1500? Or would it need to be earlier.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by willbell

What is the latest possible Point of Divergence when the Europeans could be screwed enough that they couldn't have spread their power to the extent that they did OTL. Could it be later than 1500? Or would it need to be earlier.

The problem is that something that would screw - for instance - France is not necessarily something that would hurt Iberia's chances at all.

So it would probably be better to strengthen the parts of the non-European world you want to survive.

[Henriksson]

I'd say that 1500, the processes that had nearly the entire world turn European are pretty established - you may get more resistance with the right PoDs, but not enough to turn away from superpowerdom. The definite PoD I would say are the Mongol invasions. If they fail to materialize, well I'm not sure I buy the idea that Europe would be much worse off by 1500 compared to OTL, but it was absolutely devastating to most of the rest of the world, which in the absence are far better off.

[invol]

How about a later mutation of the bubonic plague that decimates more people?

[BBadolato]

You could have the Mongols go farther into Europe and have many cities refuse to pay tribute, Then maybe have a earlier black death as icing on the cake? Although in all likely hood that would be impossible, but many there would be some massive screwage.

[Roger II]

Eh, do epidemic diseases really work that way? There's a tradeoff between virulence and ease of transmission so one can only screw Europe so much worse with a uglier plauge. A more promising route might be to have China do better; even if you don't get actual land empires a more successful China will be a valuable counterbalance to Europe and we've recently discussed how Ming China was in the process of experiencing some of the economic and social shifts(a print culture, the rise of a mercantile class, etc.) that happened in Europe at this time. Averting the Ming collapse or finding a way to keep the Ming collapse from being as big a mess would be an excellent step in this direction.

[satilisu]

Originally Posted by BBadolato

You could have the Mongols go farther into Europe and have many cities refuse to pay tribute, Then maybe have a earlier black death as icing on the cake? Although in all likely hood that would be impossible, but many there would be some massive screwage.

Considering one theory on the origin of the plague implicates the Mongols, it's not entirely impossible.

Maybe if we added say, a decade to Ogedei's life, Europe would've fallen. He had already given permission for an invasion of all Europe, and they had already penetrated to Silesia, overran Poland and Hungary, and were preparing to siege Vienna.

[LHB]

Originally Posted by satilisu

Considering one theory on the origin of the plague implicates the Mongols, it's not entirely impossible.

Maybe if we added say, a decade to Ogedei's life, Europe would've fallen. He had already given permission for an invasion of all Europe, and they had already penetrated to Silesia, overran Poland and Hungary, and were preparing to siege Vienna.

That would be a pretty potent Euro-screw, the only places I could see really holding out are the Iberian peninsula (if the Iberian powers aren't otherwise trying to kill each other), Italy (same problem as Iberia multiplied times 100), England (mostly because the Mongols never had a good record when it came to ships), and Scandinavia (mostly because of distance, even MORE inhospitable environment, and the mountains of Norway) with the Balkans also being a tough one to break up. Even then those surviving regions would be busy either keeping the Mongols happy or spending a LOT of resources on keeping them at bay until the Mongol Empire in Europe falls.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by satilisu

Considering one theory on the origin of the plague implicates the Mongols, it's not entirely impossible.

Maybe if we added say, a decade to Ogedei's life, Europe would've fallen. He had already given permission for an invasion of all Europe, and they had already penetrated to Silesia, overran Poland and Hungary, and were preparing to siege Vienna.

Which leaves half of Central and all of Western and Southern Europe to conquer with Batu and his kin at odds, Subotai getting no younger, and so on.

And let's say you make it all the way to Aquitaine/the Atlantic. What happens when Ogedei does die and the Horde turns back? Are we seriously proposing Europe remaining under Mongol control in that situation?

[Basileus444]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Which leaves half of Central and all of Western and Southern Europe to conquer with Batu and his kin at odds, Subotai getting no younger, and so on.

Nevermind that medieval Germany is probably some of the worst terrain on the planet for Mongol-style warfare.

I'm very skeptical that the Mongols could've conquered much beyond Hungary and Poland, although the possibility of turning those two into vassals like the Russian principalities is certainly feasible. The terrain is very poorly suited for large cavalry armies, and no, the Mongols are not magically immune to logistical overstretch. South China and Persia were close to the centers of Mongol power. Germany is literally on the other side of the planet.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Basileus444

Nevermind that medieval Germany is probably some of the worst terrain on the planet for Mongol-style warfare.

I'm very skeptical that the Mongols could've conquered much beyond Hungary and Poland, although the possibility of turning those two into vassals like the Russian principalities is certainly feasible. The terrain is very poorly suited for large cavalry armies, and no, the Mongols are not magically immune to logistical overstretch. South China and Persia were close to the centers of Mongol power. Germany is literally on the other side of the planet.

Yeah. I'm sure the Mongols could wreak merry havoc further than Austria, if they tried, but not the long term damage or occupation necessary for a Mongol invasion to have any influence on "Europe" rising.

If anything, a Mongol smashing through the HRE might be better for Germany as a power as the princes recognize that they have to stand together or else.

Not a given, but a not-fake possibility either.

[Gregorius]

Originally Posted by Basileus444

Nevermind that medieval Germany is probably some of the worst terrain on the planet for Mongol-style warfare.

I'm very skeptical that the Mongols could've conquered much beyond Hungary and Poland, although the possibility of turning those two into vassals like the Russian principalities is certainly feasible. The terrain is very poorly suited for large cavalry armies, and no, the Mongols are not magically immune to logistical overstretch. South China and Persia were close to the centers of Mongol power. Germany is literally on the other side of the planet.

Yes, no doubt the jungles of South China, or mountains of Tibet and Nepal were far better cavalry terrain than the landscape of Germany.
And there were no "centers of Mongol power". Where Mongol Army went, there was its center. That's the point of their warfare and success.

[Basileus444]

Originally Posted by Gregorius

Yes, no doubt the jungles of South China, or mountains of Tibet and Nepal were far better cavalry terrain than the landscape of Germany.
And there were no "centers of Mongol power". Where Mongol Army went, there was its center. That's the point of their warfare and success.

And I'm sure the Mongols didn't take advantage of having the teeming masses of north China, aka the very definition of cannon fodder, right next door, in conquering those regions.

And more importantly, why would the Mongols try and conquer Germany and beyond? The terrain is lousy for the tumen, and Hungary and Poland can't wield enough levies to beat Germany. Unlike North China, which would be of no use since Germany is literally on the other side of the planet.

In short, conquering Germany would be hard for the Mongols, and it is nowhere near rich enough to justify the expense.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Basileus444

And I'm sure the Mongols didn't take advantage of having the teeming masses of north China, aka the very definition of cannon fodder, right next door, in conquering those regions.

And watch the Tumen do badly in just those regions, too.

Also, I'd like to add that there very much were 'centers of Mongol power" - even for the Mongols, riding across Eurasia is not practical.

If it was just centered around the army, there would have been no need to pull back to Mongolia to elect the new Khan, for instance.

[satilisu]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Yeah. I'm sure the Mongols could wreak merry havoc further than Austria, if they tried, but not the long term damage or occupation necessary for a Mongol invasion to have any influence on "Europe" rising.

If anything, a Mongol smashing through the HRE might be better for Germany as a power as the princes recognize that they have to stand together or else.

Not a given, but a not-fake possibility either.

Perhaps the Mongols could also introduce the Black Plague at this point? Even without a permanent conquest of Germany the Mongols could do serious damage to the countryside and hit them with another "punishment from God."

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by satilisu

Perhaps the Mongols could also introduce the Black Plague at this point? Even without a permanent conquest of Germany the Mongols could do serious damage to the countryside and hit them with another "punishment from God."

That would require the black plague to be around to be introduced at this point, and even if you adjust things so that it is - it won't just hit Germany.

The Horde itself will suffer from it if it is bringing it, for instance.

[htgriffin]

Much like South China, the Mongols taking Central/Western Europe would rely more than a bit on locally recruited levies and turncoats,

As to the original question? I agree that the Mongols _not_ wrecking so much of Eurasia would keep Europe in a weaker relative position.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by htgriffin

Much like South China, the Mongols taking Central/Western Europe would rely more than a bit on locally recruited levies and turncoats,

As to the original question? I agree that the Mongols _not_ wrecking so much of Eurasia would keep Europe in a weaker relative position.

The Mongols had no success in India (not counting the Mughals, who didn't raze the place), and China ought to have been able to recover from the damage the Mongols did.

Iran and Iraq are another story, but the Ottomans were powerful enough for me to hesitate to say "the Middle East" was.