WI: No Plevna?

Nassirisimo · Oct 10, 2012

The Battle of Plevna was perhaps the most important battle in the Russo-Turkish war of 1877/78. Ottoman forces managed to hold the Russian army for several months and managed to win back some of the public opinion in the West the Ottomans had lost with their suppression of the Bulgarian revolt a year earlier. A.J.P Taylor considered the battle to have been the one that "Saved the Ottoman Empire in Europe".

But lets say something went differently and the Ottomans are not able to hold off the Russian armies for months. Say the Russians do some basic recon before the first battle. Say Osman Pasha is incapacitated. Lets assume that the force that held Plenva OTL is beaten with moderate casualties. What next for the Russians? I find it quite possible for them to be at the gates of Constantinople before winter, but what else happens?

Dementor · Oct 10, 2012

The first attack on Pleven was before Suleiman Pasha moved against the Central Russian army, so in this scenario it may be decided to sent him against the Western army. This probably would result in a more westerly repeat of the Battle of Shipka and with a stronger Russian army and judging by his historical abilities, a disaster for his army, while the Central Russian army is left free to roam through Thrace. If he attempts the OTL crossing of the Balkan mountains, he's left himself exposed to a Russian attack in his rear. Probably the best strategy for him would be to fortify the passes and adopt a defensive strategy (after defeating all Russian forces south of the mountains, of course) but it's doubtful whether that would have much success.
All in all, the result would be most likely a much faster Russian victory. It's likely that Britain would still intervene to save the Ottomans, but perhaps they would not be able to impose such a crushing treaty (and a less weakened Russia would be less likely to agree to this).

Nassirisimo · Oct 10, 2012

Dementor said:
The first attack on Pleven was before Suleiman Pasha moved against the Central Russian army, so in this scenario it may be decided to sent him against the Western army. This probably would result in a more westerly repeat of the Battle of Shipka and with a stronger Russian army and judging by his historical abilities, a disaster for his army, while the Central Russian army is left free to roam through Thrace. If he attempts the OTL crossing of the Balkan mountains, he's left himself exposed to a Russian attack in his rear. Probably the best strategy for him would be to fortify the passes and adopt a defensive strategy (after defeating all Russian forces south of the mountains, of course) but it's doubtful whether that would have much success.
All in all, the result would be most likely a much faster Russian victory. It's likely that Britain would still intervene to save the Ottomans, but perhaps they would not be able to impose such a crushing treaty (and a less weakened Russia would be less likely to agree to this).

Actually, I'm not too sure the British would intervene. It was the brilliant defense of Plevna that was one of the most important factors in making the British public forget about the "Bulgarian Horrors". The question is if D'israeli is willing to go against public opinion to such a degree.

Dementor · Oct 10, 2012

Nassirisimo said:
Actually, I'm not too sure the British would intervene. It was the brilliant defense of Plevna that was one of the most important factors in making the British public forget about the "Bulgarian Horrors". The question is if D'israeli is willing to go against public opinion to such a degree.

Public opinion would not prevent him from stopping Russia from capturing Istanbul, though it may prevent him from imposing an ATL Berlin treaty. Also public opinion is a fickle thing. In OTL, for example, neither the devastation the Ottoman Army under Suleiman Pasha on the territories he reconquered nor the defense of the Shipka Pass by a handful of Russians and Bulgarian volunteers had much of an effect on the public opinion as compared to the Siege of Pleven which was happening at the same time. Of course, the siege lasted much longer, so that might be the decisive factor here.