PC for a united Scandinavia

So I've got large parts of a TL planned out so far for a united Nordic federation. I just want to get thoughts on the POD and how people might see it panning out to give me some further food for thought.

PS: I remember seeing something similar to this POD on someone else's timeline from ages ago while I was doing research. Forgive me for any (accidental) similarity!

POD:
During World War 1, mid 1917, (when Scandinavian relations were probably at their highest following the monetary union etc etc), a German border patrol accidently crosses into Denmark. A couple of small skirmishes take place between the isolated Germans and a Danish unit, before the Germans realise their mistake and retreat.

In a quick moment of intelligence work by the British, focussed on attempting to bring additional allies into the war against Germany, plant faked reconnaissance plans in the Danish area trespassed upon by the Germans, to insinuate a possibility of German invasion. At the least, the Danish may reinforce the border, leading the Germans to think the Danish are joining the Allies and planning to invade Germany. In mid-1917 I think the Allies are eager for any help they can grab.

Following this, Denmark is alarmed, and reinforces the Danish-German border, and seeks assistance from the Sweden and Norway. Norway jumps to help it's old friend, but Sweden is a little more reluctant. Agreement is swiftly made though; Sweden will help Denmark, if Denmark will help Sweden in assisting Finland who is attempting to declare independence. Sweden has no interest in re-establishing Swedish control over Finland, but is interested in seeing an independent Finland both for sentimental reasons as an old friend and for defensive reasons to give breathing space between Sweden and it's old foe Russia whose domestic situation is quickly falling apart.

Things never escalate on the Danish-German border bar some military build up, but seeds of further Nordic co-operation are sown.

Sweden (with some help from Denmark & Norway) ends up diplomatically assisting Finland in asserting independence, and later ends up sending supplies and letting volunteers help the white movement in the Finnish civil war.

Firstly....plausible? Secondly....immediate butterflies?

My thoughts: A more peeved Denmark might take some more German territory post Versailles (ie. Schleswig)? On the other hand, I guess it might stick at OTL border to completely delineate the border along as semi-practical ethnic lines.

Might the Finns (maybe after the Prince Fred Charles relinquishes/is stripped of the possibility of taking the throne) let one of the Swedish princes take the throne as an independent King of Finland (I'm thinking Prince Carl of Vastergotland, would be slightly poetic after being unable to take the Norwegian throne!)?

Sweden is pro German 1917 and would probably not help Denmark against Germany in any military scenario. Some fast diplomacy to alleviate tensions is much more likely. In said compromise Germany might give some leeway to Denmark in exchange for some Swedish help in Finland (and tactic Danish help to if it’s possible). It’s also possible for UK to persuade Sweden to “help” Denmark out in exchange for some badly needed food transports IF Sweden is perfectly sure that there is not going to be anything else than some strongly worded hot air between Germany and Denmark. Norway might get a free hand to participate in all this from their masters UK. Who knows maybe Russia might consider the loss of Finland a fair price for much needed supplies being shipped through Sweden to them. The political tension in Sweden might make such a deal possible as the internal political pressure is nearing boiling point and the “price” of selling Germany out is far less than losing the political power to the Socialists (SDP) for the conservatives. But I’m might be talking nonsense in this as this period of Swedish political history were a bit tricky as the power of SDP grew and the power of the conservatives were diminishing. But it’s SDP that traditionally have been more oriented towards UK and USA so a agreement of opening up Sweden for UK shipping might be a compromise they were willing to do as it would end the starvation in Sweden.

Interesting idea, and one I'm actually politically supporting to this day. The North must unite!

But yes, the biggest problem in OTL was Swedish neutrality and isolationism in the Second World War. With a Swedish Prince on the throne, that might be migitated enough for the Swedes to send out whole divisions to the eastern border. What happens is anyones guess, but either the Nordics hold the line there, or even push forwards a bit. The Danish part however is going to create a lot of problems for the Eastern Front, since the Swedes would have to declare war on Germany to stop them from invading Denmark, and couldn't hold the line even if Finland and Norway too came in. If Germany won't help Finland, the line will be weaker to begin with. No idea if even whatever Swedes can release would help or not at that point.

If the Nordics survive the war however, it should be relatively smooth sailing... some treaties, propaganda about the glorious past (lots of glorification of the Union of Kalmar) and voila... maybe half a century later the Nordics are if not entirely extatic, at least willing to unite under a single government.

stjernkjempe said:

Sweden is pro German 1917 and would probably not help Denmark against Germany in any military scenario. Some fast diplomacy to alleviate tensions is much more likely. In said compromise Germany might give some leeway to Denmark in exchange for some Swedish help in Finland (and tactic Danish help to if it’s possible). It’s also possible for UK to persuade Sweden to “help” Denmark out in exchange for some badly needed food transports IF Sweden is perfectly sure that there is not going to be anything else than some strongly worded hot air between Germany and Denmark. Norway might get a free hand to participate in all this from their masters UK. Who knows maybe Russia might consider the loss of Finland a fair price for much needed supplies being shipped through Sweden to them. The political tension in Sweden might make such a deal possible as the internal political pressure is nearing boiling point and the “price” of selling Germany out is far less than losing the political power to the Socialists (SDP) for the conservatives. But I’m might be talking nonsense in this as this period of Swedish political history were a bit tricky as the power of SDP grew and the power of the conservatives were diminishing. But it’s SDP that traditionally have been more oriented towards UK and USA so a agreement of opening up Sweden for UK shipping might be a compromise they were willing to do as it would end the starvation in Sweden.

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Interesting thoughts - thanks!

So, maybe crash diplomacy between Germany, Denmark and Sweden leads to Swedish reassurances that Germany is not plotting any invasion on Denmark in 1917. Denmark is reassured as well of no invasion, but is still uneasy, and thereby fortifies the border a bit better to protect against unwanted "accidental" incursions. Sweden assists, creating a slight "Danish Maginot line", which as a defensive establishment is not going to really bother Germany that much as it can't really be used to press into Germany. Norway gets a free hand to help from the UK who are only too happy to provide any distraction possible to Germany.

After that, I don't see Sweden doing that much, as you say I'm assuming they want to continue trading with Germany and are still somewhat entrenched in neutrality of some sort. Finland being the "old friend" will be the exception to that. Other then more general Nordic friendship, I don't think there will be many butterflies, but I'll admit I know little of Swedish politics at this point.

I'd like to keep things as reasonably close to OTL as possible to manage butterflies, and also because if & when I come to write this I want to do so from the current day looking back which makes running changes bloody difficult to manage.

Olligarchy said:

Interesting idea, and one I'm actually politically supporting to this day. The North must unite!

But yes, the biggest problem in OTL was Swedish neutrality and isolationism in the Second World War. With a Swedish Prince on the throne, that might be migitated enough for the Swedes to send out whole divisions to the eastern border. What happens is anyones guess, but either the Nordics hold the line there, or even push forwards a bit. The Danish part however is going to create a lot of problems for the Eastern Front, since the Swedes would have to declare war on Germany to stop them from invading Denmark, and couldn't hold the line even if Finland and Norway too came in. If Germany won't help Finland, the line will be weaker to begin with. No idea if even whatever Swedes can release would help or not at that point.

If the Nordics survive the war however, it should be relatively smooth sailing... some treaties, propaganda about the glorious past (lots of glorification of the Union of Kalmar) and voila... maybe half a century later the Nordics are if not entirely extatic, at least willing to unite under a single government.

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Well I don't think that's as much of a problem as you think (although I'm certainly open to being corrected and schooled! ). Come World War 2, the Nordic countries will pronounce neutrality as per norm. OTL, a large part of the reason for Opeartion Weserubung was to deny the Allies the opportunity to take Denmark/Norway and cutting off Swedish iron ore upon which the Germans were reliant. Due to increasing ties between the Nordic countries, I'd think Germany would be nervous of invading an ally/friend of Sweden and thus possibly cutting themselves off from Swedish iron ore. Any move that Germany makes would thus need to take all of Denmark, Sweden & Norway in order to guarantee the iron ore - an almighty task given the British fleet in the North Sea.

So my thoughts are that with closer relations, the Nordic countries might manage to just rough out WW2 with neutrality.

I think the best thing you can get is a "Nordic EU", which start as a free trade zone and evolve with a common currency, and perhaps get a Nordic Parliament for legislation on some common issues (that all still has to go through the national parliaments for ratification), but still very much behave like 5 different countries on foreign policy.

Devvy said:

Well I don't think that's as much of a problem as you think (although I'm certainly open to being corrected and schooled! ). Come World War 2, the Nordic countries will pronounce neutrality as per norm. OTL, a large part of the reason for Opeartion Weserubung was to deny the Allies the opportunity to take Denmark/Norway and cutting off Swedish iron ore upon which the Germans were reliant. Due to increasing ties between the Nordic countries, I'd think Germany would be nervous of invading an ally/friend of Sweden and thus possibly cutting themselves off from Swedish iron ore. Any move that Germany makes would thus need to take all of Denmark, Sweden & Norway in order to guarantee the iron ore - an almighty task given the British fleet in the North Sea.

So my thoughts are that with closer relations, the Nordic countries might manage to just rough out WW2 with neutrality.

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You do make a good point about Denmark, but will the Germans feel the need to support Finnish efforts? I realize that the Union will probably be more easily formed without Finland, but if we include it, it must survive the War with at least token independence. If Germany won't help the Finns, it's uncertain if the Nordics can muster enough help to equal/exceed the help the Finns would've gotten from the Nazis. Even if we assume that the Nordic help is suitably large, who knows what the Soviets would do? If they attack and the Nordics declare war too, all of Scandinavia becomes firmly part of the Axis camp, as such weakening their ties to the allies.

If both, Germany and SU accept Nordic neutrality though, there is no problem.

Devvy said:

Interesting thoughts - thanks!

So, maybe crash diplomacy between Germany, Denmark and Sweden leads to Swedish reassurances that Germany is not plotting any invasion on Denmark in 1917. Denmark is reassured as well of no invasion, but is still uneasy, and thereby fortifies the border a bit better to protect against unwanted "accidental" incursions. Sweden assists, creating a slight "Danish Maginot line", which as a defensive establishment is not going to really bother Germany that much as it can't really be used to press into Germany. Norway gets a free hand to help from the UK who are only too happy to provide any distraction possible to Germany.

After that, I don't see Sweden doing that much, as you say I'm assuming they want to continue trading with Germany and are still somewhat entrenched in neutrality of some sort. Finland being the "old friend" will be the exception to that. Other then more general Nordic friendship, I don't think there will be many butterflies, but I'll admit I know little of Swedish politics at this point.

I'd like to keep things as reasonably close to OTL as possible to manage butterflies, and also because if & when I come to write this I want to do so from the current day looking back which makes running changes bloody difficult to manage.

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Have the tree (four) separate SDPis of Norway, Sweden and Denmark (Finland could be included but I will explain later) find grounds to unite around would help a lot to get the Nordic countries to Unite. If the respective SDP leadership of each country could get together before1918 and find enough common ground to unite their parties the Nordic countries is practically united by the start of ww2 (I might exaggerate a bit). If you could find a way to include the Finish SDP into this the Finish civil war might be avoided (by influence from the other Nordic SDPs) whit a lot of political maneuvering and other tricks. But Finland IOTL were so dependent on German aid for its independence, winning the civil war and other things this might be hard to do anything whit Germanys approval.

UK might see this falling out between Sweden and Germany as positive and might support a Nordic intervention in Finland in hope to get the Swedish government to stop trading whit Germany.

It would not hurt if the three countries Liberal parties throw their Wight behind their respective SDPis and swing Denmark and Sweden toward pro UK camps. Getting a relative free hand in Finland and some other things to stick to the conservatives might be the thing for Swedish Liberal partie to make them consider this.

The effect on Finland whit more Nordic help and involvement is hard to predict. Sweden Is going to be wanting Aland for their help ant this might not create such a good feeling in Finland.

stjernkjempe said:

The effect on Finland whit more Nordic help and involvement is hard to predict. Sweden Is going to be wanting Aland for their help ant this might not create such a good feeling in Finland.

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Speaking as a Finn I could give a whit for the Ålands if we get Karelia back and maybe some extra towards the Isthmus in the case the Soviets attack.

yourworstnightmare said:

I think the best thing you can get is a "Nordic EU", which start as a free trade zone and evolve with a common currency, and perhaps get a Nordic Parliament for legislation on some common issues (that all still has to go through the national parliaments for ratification), but still very much behave like 5 different countries on foreign policy.

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I think we can get a little better then the Nordic EU, but still a very decentralised federation (less so then Canada!). There's been so many attempts to strengthen ties between the Nordic nations over the years, that I actually find it surprising they haven't managed any of them and instead have been all just joined the EU.

Olligarchy said:

You do make a good point about Denmark, but will the Germans feel the need to support Finnish efforts? I realize that the Union will probably be more easily formed without Finland, but if we include it, it must survive the War with at least token independence. If Germany won't help the Finns, it's uncertain if the Nordics can muster enough help to equal/exceed the help the Finns would've gotten from the Nazis. Even if we assume that the Nordic help is suitably large, who knows what the Soviets would do? If they attack and the Nordics declare war too, all of Scandinavia becomes firmly part of the Axis camp, as such weakening their ties to the allies.

If both, Germany and SU accept Nordic neutrality though, there is no problem.

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My thoughts are that Germany will accept Nordic neutrality as long as they are assured of Swedish iron. The British won't invade Norway unilaterally in this case, because to do so would trigger a reaction in Sweden driving them closer to Germany which would be a huge mistake. And Britain has no real army to cross the fjords into Sweden!

I think the Soviet Union will still trigger the Winter War, as they want to be assured of defence for St Peterburg/Leningrad, and because Stalin is still going to want to have a dabble in reconquering the former Russian territories. But given the Finnish defence, and the additional help from Denmark/Sweden/Norway, I think the Soviets could get an even more bloody nose with Finland holding out and managing to settle on roughly even terms (although they'll give up some territory to try and get the Soviets to have no reason to go to war again). Maybe a swap of Petsamo for Repola and Porajarvi and some minor concessions on the Karelian Isthmus.

This of course means that there should be no Continuation War as there are no German troops in Finland, with Finland being more Nordic-orientated. OTL Stalin threw somewhere around 500,000 - 750,000 soldiers at Finland in the Continuation War. Come this TL, he can throw them at the Germans instead - maybe Stalin turns back the Germans earlier and makes greater strides into Germany?

I'm unsure on that and am open to opinion as I don't particularly want to cover it in my TL so I stay focussed on Scandinavia. I find it particularly hard to write when you lose focus and start to cover all the butterflies

stjernkjempe said:

The effect on Finland with more Nordic help and involvement is hard to predict. Sweden Is going to be wanting Aland for their help ant this might not create such a good feeling in Finland.

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True, but might Sweden still agree to international arbitration. Having just moved the Russian border well away from Sweden thanks to an independent & friendly Finland, are they really going to want to risk alienating Finland.

Olligarchy said:

You do make a good point about Denmark, but will the Germans feel the need to support Finnish efforts? I realize that the Union will probably be more easily formed without Finland, but if we include it, it must survive the War with at least token independence. If Germany won't help the Finns, it's uncertain if the Nordics can muster enough help to equal/exceed the help the Finns would've gotten from the Nazis. Even if we assume that the Nordic help is suitably large, who knows what the Soviets would do? If they attack and the Nordics declare war too, all of Scandinavia becomes firmly part of the Axis camp, as such weakening their ties to the allies.

If both, Germany and SU accept Nordic neutrality though, there is no problem.

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I am pretty confident that if Finland has the firm support of the Scandinavian nations, or at the very least Sweden, the USSR would not attack Finland like it did in the Winter War IOTL. I think that if all else is equal, or pretty nearly that, Stalin would not risk the possibility of all of the Nordic area going to war against the USSR. In fact I believe that if IOTL Sweden would have declared openly in 1938-39 that it will stand by Finland even in case of war, the Winter War would have been avoided.

The situation is somewhat different if the Scandinavians are lukewarm in their support to Finland. If there is a developing Nordic Union, much in the way yourworstnightmare terms it above, but one that has political problems between the different countries, the whole situation with the USSR and Nazi Germany in the late 30s could well tear it apart. That would be the worst case scenario in that event: each nation looking at its narrowly defined national interest and withholding help, political and military, to the others. Like it often has been IOTL, Sweden would be the linchpin in keeping it together or possibly breaking the union.

If we consider the idea from that angle, we might have well seen a very strong and positive project for a Nordic Union (or something like that) in the interwar era, but one that broke apart due to the stress brought on by WWII and national short-sightedness: a lost opportunity that would be even more tragic because it really seemed so promising, one everyone would be making ATLs about.

Devvy said:

True, but might Sweden still agree to international arbitration. Having just moved the Russian border well away from Sweden thanks to an independent & friendly Finland, are they really going to want to risk alienating Finland.

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Well most top political leaders in Sweden will still continue to see the Åland islands as rightfully Swedish ITTL, since the population is entirely Swedish speaking and support reunification with Sweden. Maybe it would be possible for the dispute over Åland to actually lead to some kind of referendum, which would definitely be in favor of unification with Sweden by a big margin.

Also, it may be a bit soon for this, but I just thought I'd suggest a capital for a united Nordic federation/confederation.
Gothenburg. It's a major economic hub in the region, the biggest port in Scandinavia, it's got good infrastructure, and it's in close proximity to both Oslo and Copenhagen, which would makes the Danes and Norwegians relatively happy.

EvilSpaceAlien said:

Well most top political leaders in Sweden will still continue to see the Åland islands as rightfully Swedish ITTL, since the population is entirely Swedish speaking and support reunification with Sweden. Maybe it would be possible for the dispute over Åland to actually lead to some kind of referendum, which would definitely be in favor of unification with Sweden by a big margin.

Also, it may be a bit soon for this, but I just thought I'd suggest a capital for a united Nordic federation/confederation.
Gothenburg. It's a major economic hub in the region, the biggest port in Scandinavia, it's got good infrastructure, and it's in close proximity to both Oslo and Copenhagen, which would makes the Danes and Norwegians relatively happy.

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Doesn't that take it even further away from the Finns, making them once again feel like the lost eastern province of peasants working under the norse elite?

Olligarchy said:

Doesn't that take it even further away from the Finns, making them once again feel like the lost eastern province of peasants working under the norse elite?

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Honestly speaking, I had the same reaction. But maybe it is just our inferiority complex doing the talking.

DrakonFin said:

Honestly speaking, I had the same reaction. But maybe it is just our inferiority complex doing the talking.

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Personally the Capitol could be in Greenland for all I care, but the media would have a field-day describing it to the people who start to rage about it.

DrakonFin said:

I am pretty confident that if Finland has the firm support of the Scandinavian nations, or at the very least Sweden, the USSR would not attack Finland like it did in the Winter War IOTL. I think that if all else is equal, or pretty nearly that, Stalin would not risk the possibility of all of the Nordic area going to war against the USSR. In fact I believe that if IOTL Sweden would have declared openly in 1938-39 that it will stand by Finland even in case of war, the Winter War would have been avoided.

The situation is somewhat different if the Scandinavians are lukewarm in their support to Finland. If there is a developing Nordic Union, much in the way yourworstnightmare terms it above, but one that has political problems between the different countries, the whole situation with the USSR and Nazi Germany in the late 30s could well tear it apart. That would be the worst case scenario in that event: each nation looking at its narrowly defined national interest and withholding help, political and military, to the others. Like it often has been IOTL, Sweden would be the linchpin in keeping it together or possibly breaking the union.

If we consider the idea from that angle, we might have well seen a very strong and positive project for a Nordic Union (or something like that) in the interwar era, but one that broke apart due to the stress brought on by WWII and national short-sightedness: a lost opportunity that would be even more tragic because it really seemed so promising, one everyone would be making ATLs about.

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Interesting to note. I still want the Winter War to happen - I think it works as a good shove to Finland into Nordic sphere, to fully seek union in some form to assure itself of survival. Maybe Stalin thinks they can crush Finland before the Swedes intervene...

EvilSpaceAlien said:

Well most top political leaders in Sweden will still continue to see the Åland islands as rightfully Swedish ITTL, since the population is entirely Swedish speaking and support reunification with Sweden. Maybe it would be possible for the dispute over Åland to actually lead to some kind of referendum, which would definitely be in favor of unification with Sweden by a big margin.

Also, it may be a bit soon for this, but I just thought I'd suggest a capital for a united Nordic federation/confederation.
Gothenburg. It's a major economic hub in the region, the biggest port in Scandinavia, it's got good infrastructure, and it's in close proximity to both Oslo and Copenhagen, which would makes the Danes and Norwegians relatively happy.

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Yeah I've been thinking of this as well. I remember seeing (although I have no idea where) the notion that Malmo would be the capital in the planned Nordek, as it's a good sized Swedish city that is also a "suburb" city of Danish Copenhagen which acts as a compromise between the 2 larger powers. Gothenburg is a nice central location in the middle of Norway, Sweden & Denmark, but I'm unsure if it might be a little "political" - kinda like placing the EU capital fully in French Strasbourg instead of mostly in neutral Brussels.

Olligarchy said:

Personally the Capitol could be in Greenland for all I care, but the media would have a field-day describing it to the people who start to rage about it.

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Actually laughed out!

Devvy said:

Yeah I've been thinking of this as well. I remember seeing (although I have no idea where) the notion that Malmo would be the capital in the planned Nordek, as it's a good sized Swedish city that is also a "suburb" city of Danish Copenhagen which acts as a compromise between the 2 larger powers. Gothenburg is a nice central location in the middle of Norway, Sweden & Denmark, but I'm unsure if it might be a little "political" - kinda like placing the EU capital fully in French Strasbourg instead of mostly in neutral Brussels.

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I don't think you could remotely call Malmö a "suburb" city of Copenhagen at this point because the Öresund Bridge doesn't even exist yet so travel and trade between the two cities isn't at the same level as today, and there definitely aren't any people commuting between the two cities for work reasons. So having Malmö as the capital probably wouldn't have any different political impact than Gothenburg would.

EvilSpaceAlien said:

I don't think you could remotely call Malmö a "suburb" city of Copenhagen at this point because the Öresund Bridge doesn't even exist yet so travel and trade between the two cities isn't at the same level as today, and there definitely aren't any people commuting between the two cities for work reasons. So having Malmö as the capital probably wouldn't have any different political impact than Gothenburg would.

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Mmmm yeah, fair point.

Gothenburg is maybe the best located then. I need to find that source I had for Malmo....

Drakonfin is correct in his analysis that the Nordic countries could have formed a closer bond during the interwar era IOTL. A military Union were brought up during economic negotiations (there were a free trade and other economic agreements already in place) 1930 but Hitler got in the way for this (and national short slightness).
Politics and power is the key for a Nordic unification during the interwar era to happen. First off the SDP leaders of Sweden and Denmark, Hjalmar Branting and Torvald Stauning, expressed interests in a Nordic union many times. Working out who should be the big boy in a Nordic SDP is key to get this rolling BEFOR both of them become to prominent in each of their countries to be interested in giving up power. Second the Danish and Norwegian Liberal movements (and keep in mind in these times Liberals were not conservatives but wanted to change society) were close to each other, get them to include the Swedish Liberals and work out who could be big dog against a SDP Nordic cooperation and there is a natural dynamic building up for all those that don’t want to support SDP but like a more united Nordic brotherhood. Third have enough of conservatives make deals that secure some power for them in a Nordic union and there should be a broad political majority for the project. Finland have to get involved in this in a later stage as they first have to gain independence and secondly have to work out if they are going to have a civil war or not. I would prefer not as it both saves human life’s but also could involve some close meddling from the Nordic countries and give closer connections between Finland and them.

Gothenburg is an Ideal capital city for SDP as it is a big factory town; Liberals might like it because of its trade connections. It would placate Swedish feelings as it is the biggest partner in the Union but also sooth Danish and Norwegian feelings as it is a brand new location and not being ruled from Stockholm. Nobody cares about what Finland wants because if they want to come with they have to prove to the bigoted Swedes that they are not a bunch of primitive poor uneducated Russian peasants that like to drink kosinkorva and fight whit knifes. (I don’t want to make any Finns angry but these were the common stereotypes of Finnish people in Sweden long into the 70is in Sweden).

Is there anybody that have any Idea how the other Nordic countries SDPs could help Oskari Tokoi navigate away Finland from the abyss of Civil war?

In terms of location of the capital, absent Finland Gothenburg seems a likely bet - all the cities that are larger in Scandinavia are also capital cities of the constituent countries, and Gothenburg's infrastructure-links to Oslo, Stockholm and Copenhagen are all relatively decent (for the time, at least). Its location might be relatively 'neutral', as well - neither Copenhagen, nor Oslo, nor Stockholm are that much closer than one of the others.

A timeline where Gothenburg is the capital of a nation with a GDP almost as large as Russia's sounds like a rather special timeline. I like it.