Herman Cain won the 2012 Republican Nomination

[Teejay]

The POD is that Herman Cain unlike in OTL does not engage in adulterous relationships and has no scandals like that to scuttle his campaign to become the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

That would make his road to become the Republican nominee for President in 2012 a lot easier. So in this timeline I am proposing Herman Cain becomes the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

[imperialaquila]

Even without the scandal, he still has the problem that he has never held public office and is a walking gaffe-machine. His complete ignorance of foreign policy would be a big problem. Obama could probably break 400 EVs in this scenario.

[Turquoise Blue]

Landslide for Obama.

[Komodo20]

2012 becomes notable for being the first election in which both parties ran African-American presidential candidates. Obama wins.

[modelcitizen]

Obama experiences serious deja vu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Illinois,_2004 against an African-American Republican of slightly deranged presentation.

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by Teejay

The POD is that Herman Cain unlike in OTL does not engage in adulterous relationships and has no scandals like that to scuttle his campaign to become the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

That would make his road to become the Republican nominee for President in 2012 a lot easier. So in this timeline I am proposing Herman Cain becomes the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

Even scandal-free, Cain's chances of winning the GOP nomination are minuscule, as he lacks the credentials and experience needed to be a credible candidate for the presidency.

[Ariosto]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Even scandal-free, Cain's chances of winning the GOP nomination are minuscule, as he lacks the credentials and experience needed to be a credible candidate for the presidency.

This. Herman Cain basically becomes what Rick Santorum was in the primaries, with more money. Though that certainly might make for more interesting results.

[kevvy2010]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Even scandal-free, Cain's chances of winning the GOP nomination are minuscule, as he lacks the credentials and experience needed to be a credible candidate for the presidency.

Nevertheless, Cain was the only truly charismatic one in the race. And nobody liked Romney.

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by kevvy2010

Nevertheless, Cain was the only truly charismatic one in the race. And nobody liked Romney.

This is true. Perhaps, given a 2004 POD in which he wins election to the US Senate, he could have been the GOP nominee in '08 or this year.

[Ariosto]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more realistic it seems that Cain could have been a real challenge for Romney were the scandals to have never appeared. He didn't have much in the way of Campaign Infrastructure, but neither did Santorum, and Cain would have the money to fix that. He didn't have the record Gingrich or Santorum did that could be drawn upon, in the sense of being more Liberal than they let on. He had charisma, something as someone else pointed out was found lacking; though it may not have translated at the debates, that doesn't matter much when you are trying to enthuse crowds at rallies.

So he wins Iowa with little trouble; Romney pulls his money out of there when it appears he won't perform all that well. New Hampshire is much like OTL, but with Cain polling somewhere around 18%, and Gingrich dropping out following a weak showing.

The real question is South Carolina. I understand Gingrich won the state overwhelmingly, but I am wondering how much Cain's ethnicity would play in the Deep South among conservative voters. Thoughts?

[Porthos]

I feel like shouting "ASB!!!" but that seems counter-productive.

Cain's problem is that he makes Newt Gingrich look disciplined and a model of campaign stability.

He had practically no campaign staff when he took off. In fact, he was really on a glorified book tour when some of the GOP grassroots took a shining toward him. He would have imploded sooner or later. Either from an utter lack of planning, or some campaign misstep, or simply lack of organization. Not to mention that he had practically no platform whatsoever outside of '9-9-9'. Seeing him talk about almost anything outside of economic matters during debates was cringeworthy.

Think the freakout of the Establishment GOP when Gingrich actually looked to be within striking distance of the nomination was something to behold? It's be nothing compared to the freakout that would occur if Herman Cain was anywhere near the nomination.

Herman Cain actually getting the nomination is gonna take a lot of doing. Maybe not quite successful Sealion level of doing, but pretty darn close.

[Jasen777]

Originally Posted by Porthos

Actually getting him the nomination? That's gonna take a lot of doing. Maybe not quite successful Sealion invasion level of doing, but pretty darn close.

Life can be a challenge, life can seem impossible, it's never easy when there is so much on the line. But you and I can make a difference. With courage you can set things right. A gift to dream and make dreams real is yours and mine.

[Æsir]

Originally Posted by Jasen777

Life can be a challenge, life can seem impossible, it's never easy when there is so much on the line. But you and I can make a difference. With courage you can set things right. A gift to dream and make dreams real is yours and mine.

The power of one!

[Porthos]

Originally Posted by Jasen777

Life can be a challenge, life can seem impossible, it's never easy when there is so much on the line. But you and I can make a difference. With courage you can set things right. A gift to dream and make dreams real is yours and mine.

*brain sues eyes for divorce*

I hope you happy with yourself, Jasen777.

[Sunny]

Originally Posted by modelcitizen

Obama experiences serious deja vu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Illinois,_2004 against an African-American Republican of slightly deranged presentation.

Yup. I was thinking the same thing. Like Alan Keyes, Cain had a certain base of support among the right-wing "Freeper" GOP fringe, but outside of that he would have been unpalatable to the vast majority of American voters (Democrats and Republicans, as well as both blacks and whites). If in some timeline, Cain did win the 2012 nomination, I'm thinking a huge blowout for Obama in November. Along the lines of LBJ in 64, Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84.

[Jasen777]

Originally Posted by Porthos

I hope you happy with yourself, Jasen777.

I can't take credit for that. It was written by some poet.

[Porthos]

Originally Posted by Sunny

Yup. I was thinking the same thing. Like Alan Keyes, Cain had a certain base of support among the right-wing "Freeper" GOP fringe, but outside of that he would have been unpalatable to the vast majority of American voters (Democrats and Republicans, as well as both blacks and whites). If in some timeline, Cain did win the 2012 nomination, I'm thinking a huge blowout for Obama in November. Along the lines of LBJ in 64, Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84.

Something like this, I think:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=EIN

Cain gets ID, UT, WY, NE (minus NE-2), KS, MS, AL, WV. I threw in KY and TN for Cain as well, but upon reflection they might actually go for Obama.

Funny thing is that during the sexual harassment scandal, Cain was still outpolling Obama in Mississippi,. So I kinda used that as my baseline.

Of course seeing months of Cain in a general election scenario might even make those states flip. Especially if a third party candidate decides to enter the race.

[Paul V McNutt]

Cain showed so much stupidity. He seemed unprepared to respond to sexual harassment charges.vGenerak election voters would much less understanding on that issue than Republican primary voters. He also was caught off guard when asked about Libya.

[Porthos]

Originally Posted by Paul V McNutt

Cain showed so much stupidity. He seemed unprepared to respond to sexual harassment charges. General election voters would much less understanding on that issue than Republican primary voters. He also was caught off guard when asked about Libya.

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced some center-right politician would have entered the race as an independent.

The main problem is timing. The ballot access deadlines for various states are all different. A lot would depend on just when it appeared that Cain might actually get the nomination. He gets it in late May, there might not be time to launch a credible alternative. But if he all-but-wrapped it up in Early April?

That's a different story.

[modelcitizen]

Originally Posted by Sunny

Yup. I was thinking the same thing. Like Alan Keyes, Cain had a certain base of support among the right-wing "Freeper" GOP fringe, but outside of that he would have been unpalatable to the vast majority of American voters (Democrats and Republicans, as well as both blacks and whites). If in some timeline, Cain did win the 2012 nomination, I'm thinking a huge blowout for Obama in November. Along the lines of LBJ in 64, Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84.

And, the process for Cain to get the nomination might be at least as convoluted as the process was for Keyes to get the GOP nomination against Obama in 2004.