Earliest possible Space Program in the 20th Century

Sorry if this has been asked already. My question out there to all of you is, when was the earliest possible date/year when satellites and or manned space launches could have happened? All things have to be considered re: electronics, plastics, tracking stations (ships), fuel, mathematics/physics, aeronautics, etc. Once again, sorry if this has been already been posted. Thank you for all of your replies. Joho :)
 
Sorry if this has been asked already. My question out there to all of you is, when was the earliest possible date/year when satellites and or manned space launches could have happened? All things have to be considered re: electronics, plastics, tracking stations (ships), fuel, mathematics/physics, aeronautics, etc. Once again, sorry if this has been already been posted. Thank you for all of your replies. Joho :)

Well, if you just want 'something' somewhere 'in orbit' v2 tech would work. I believe a two stage version, with the first stage being a rather scaled up version of a v2 and the second a scaled down one could achieve orbital velocity. Basically the a9/a10 of the nazis.

This would have lots of serious problems, though. Firstly, the v2 had a mass ratio of 28. So to get eg 100kg in orbit youd need an 85 tonne rocket. Secondly, youd have 4 times as many engines to break down. Thirdly, the reliability of v2s wasnt great to start with, two stages squares the risk. Fourthly, the v2s inertial guidance system sucked. Again, compound that with errors in two stages, and you could get a satellite in low orbit, but youd not have a lot of control over WHAT orbit. Fifthly, what good would it do? Vacuum tubes are notoriously unreliable, so any sort of comsat would have a short life. Photo reconn would require film and reentry vehicles to return it, which isnt their yet. Maybe your best bet would be a big metallized balloon like ... echo, was that what it was called? And sixthly, it would be hugely expensive.

A surviving nazi regime, verging on asb there, might put up a satellite after half a dozen failures in, say '47, which would beep at the Allies for a week. They might think the propaganda value worth it.

The math and physics had been well understood for decades, and are pretty trivial once you start looking for them. Tsiolkovsky, Goddard and Oberth all figured out the basics independently.

Edit:
Photovoltaic cells were invented pretty early, but the first useful ones were invented in 1954. They were put on a US satellite in '58. Until you have some way to get power for your satellites, they aren't going to be very useful, as they have to be either passive, like the Echo balloons or they live only as long as their batteries. RTGs (radioisotope thermal generators) were apparently first launched in '61.

Hmmm... you might get large satellites with steam generators (think http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy#High-temperature_collectors) but you'd need a certain size for that weight to be feasible.

Arthur Clarke's early stories had his satellites manned - partly so they could keep changing the tubes as they burned out.
 
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The Nazis would be in a good position to do it at least a decade early in part because they wouldn't care about what happens to any personnel "volunteered" onto a space-craft. (Including the satellite slaves noted above!)
 
back basics

the Theories and first working examples of rockets were made in 1920s-1930s
USA: Robert H. Goddard, John Whiteside Parsons.
Weimare Republic: Hermann Oberth, Max Valier, Eugene Sänger
Soviet Union: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Valentin Glushko, Sergei Korolev.
Great Britian: Arthur C. Clarke, head of British Interplanetary Society
Argentina: Pedro Paulet
Italy: Luigi Gussalli

a Solid base for Early Space Program, worldwide !
Only we need the political and Military will to start the Program.
The Germans made R&D in rockets, to escape the regulation of treaty of Versailles. (what let to V2.)
maybe a eccentric superrich like Guggenheim, Rockefeller or Ford put his money in R&D, as a monument for him

I'm so rich, i gave Earth a second Moon!

on V2 as satellite launcher
you don't need to modified the rocket, just put 2 small stages on it and satellite of 150kg !
so is a analog of the French Diamant A, it's first stage is almost same in mass and size of a V2.
 
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This would have lots of serious problems, though. Firstly, the v2 had a mass ratio of 28. So to get eg 100kg in orbit youd need an 85 tonne rocket. Secondly, youd have 4 times as many engines to break down. Thirdly, the reliability of v2s wasnt great to start with, two stages squares the risk. Fourthly, the v2s inertial guidance system sucked. Again, compound that with errors in two stages, and you could get a satellite in low orbit, but youd not have a lot of control over WHAT orbit. Fifthly, what good would it do? Vacuum tubes are notoriously unreliable, so any sort of comsat would have a short life. Photo reconn would require film and reentry vehicles to return it, which isnt their yet. Maybe your best bet would be a big metallized balloon like ... echo, was that what it was called? And sixthly, it would be hugely expensive.

There are a couple of reasonably practical things you could do with very early satellites, actually. Echo-type big metallized balloons to serve as surrogate Moons for long-range radio communications are possible; so are Vanguard-type very carefully machined little spheres which can be tracked as their orbit decays to iron out the properties of the upper atmosphere (this is still being done, by the way--you only need optical tracking, so the satellite can be a totally inert lump of metal).

This last would actually have practical value in designing ballistic missiles and other spacecraft, so it seems the most likely overall to me (and now you know why Vanguard was America's first satellite program. Well, besides politicking)
 
In principle the V2 was the earliest sub orbital rocket that could be made. It would be very difficult to imagine any launch vehicle being developed before that with a simmilar or greater payload capacity. This is because the pressures of the world war catylised rocket development greatly.

Therefore, given the Space Race preaty much started right after the war, our normal history probally created the earliest space program possible for mankind unless Rome perhaps had never fallen and we never had the Dark Ages as we did (not saying they were dark in knowledge, but in loss of large centralised kingdoms with the economic might to be able to develop new ideas and machines).


Building a rocket is not really the difficult bit, but having a device on the rocket able to do something worth the cost is the question. Without the electronic computing equipment that came with the second world war your going to be greately limited in finding a use for a space rocket other than to lob bombs at one another...and that is a significant obsicle to overcome when these rockets cost a bomb themselves ;).

Sure their are some basic uses, at the very least a burst radio transmitter with a nuclear pile could have made a Great War era GPS system if we really want to go back and plug the realms of plausibility. But there isn't much more you can do without electronic components in the realms of telecommunications and navigation. Satilite photography is well out of the question.
 

Garrison

Donor
Well as I said the last time this came up get the US to take Goddard seriously in the 20's and 30's. That would probably accelerate rocket development all around. You could start by having someone at the New York Times who actually understood the laws of physics.
 
There is a story that the Yanks could have got up by '55. But Ike said no, because the Reds could then not complain about the US flying over their country.
 

Garrison

Donor
There is a story that the Yanks could have got up by '55. But Ike said no, because the Reds could then not complain about the US flying over their country.

It was possible for them to beat Sputnik but there was an issue over using the Von Braun designed rocket because of the Nazi associations so they persevered with an alternate design and the Soviets beat them to the punch.
 
@genmotty
the us basically coasted from the end of the war til sputnik.

If they had put any significant amount of money in, you could have had a us satellite up in '52, possibly. Certainly by '54.

So beating otl by up to five years is 'easy'. More than that gets tough.
 
I agree with others here: the best reasonable chance with the fewest butterflies already existed for Germany refining the existing V2 program by the late 40's, assuming that the Nazi regime survives that long, and has the political will to do so. The first is obviously a big "if," however, and probably requires an early POD, such as Hitler delaying or avoiding going to war. Once Hitler has attacked Russia, he's dug himself into a strategic hole that's not easy to get out of.

But real point is that the basic engineering work had been largely done in the 20's and 30's. What was lacking was the political will. That only reemerged once the Cold War heated up in the 50's.
 
There is a story that the Yanks could have got up by '55. But Ike said no, because the Reds could then not complain about the US flying over their country.

1956 actually, but yeah, there was a failure to understand the potential benefits of having a space program, and a desire to not antagonize the Russians.
 
Had politics in France and USA not almost murder Rockets program after World war 2, we could be much further

like French super V2, a advance version of V2 (A8), cancelled because they politician believed that the rocket would be obsolete in 1950.
this delay french space program for almost 20 years, imagine how the French could launch the First satellite in 1955 !

In USA the early Space Program and Technology transfer, was stop by politician believed it was waste of money, because the War was over.
the 1946 Projekt MX-774 got cancelled and reinvigorated 1951 as Project MX-1593 aka the Atlas ICBM
for 5 years Werner von Braun and his team were twiddle there thumbs, in Fort Bliss, Texas.

In Soviet Union problems were different, First they had to jump technological years ahead, most rocket scientist were in Gulags, because there work was consider "contra productive"
 
President Eisenhower was keenly interested in getting a satellite up for a very specific purpose--he wanted orbital surveillance of the Soviets. He was alarmed at the risks involved in aerial surveillance missions but also unwilling to go without the information that overflights brought him, thus the desire for orbiting surveillance satellites.

But, he also figured that if the first spacecraft the USA launched were a spysat, the Soviets would assert a principle of airspace sovereignty extending out to infinity, claiming the right to shoot down any satellite passing over Soviet territory at any altitude whatsoever.

Hence, Vanguard, as a nominally civil and scientific program. The plan was, Vanguard would launch first, and the Soviets would say nothing against the obviously harmless and completely public program. Then after a few of these successes, other American rockets could start launching other satellites with a minimum of fanfare or publicity. The Russians might start crying foul at that point, but having established the principle of limited airspace and the international character of orbital space, Eisenhower hoped, their objections would have limited force, and eventually they'd reflect that they too could have free surveillance of the USA from satellites of their own. Since Eisenhower offered the Russians the "Open Skies" proposal whereby each nation would be allowed to send verifiably unarmed scout planes over the other freely, I think he'd anticipate and accept reciprocal Soviet spysats as inevitable, fair, and not undesirable, since honest information about what both sides were doing would tend to cool down war fevers.

In the event, the Russians beat Vanguard into orbit, which was not what Ike wanted, but served the purpose of preempting Soviet objections to Corona spysats much much better. Any Soviet-launched satellite would surely pass over US territory (whereas US launched craft might completely avoid passing over Soviet territory, the US being at a much lower latitude) so since Khrushchev did not ask US permission nor even give a warning, the Soviet themselves were by implication asserting the free passage of orbital space as a principle; all the USA had to do was agree.

Once Sputnik was up the restraints were taken off von Braun's Huntsville team and, quietly, the Corona program was cleared for launches.

Early Corona attempts were a long series of failures by the way, I believe it took them ten launch attempts to finally get a spysat up that took useful pictures and then returned them recoverably to Earth. But I believe that first successfully recovered set of pictures was delivered to Eisenhower before he left office so he could see the fruits of his policies. However much money it cost to put up that finally successful rocket, and factoring in the costs of the failures that had preceeded it, not one American risked being shot down over Russia to get these pictures; with the legal metaphysics of "who owns orbital space?" settled in favor of an analog with the open seas rather than extended national sovereignty, by the Soviets themselves, there was much less risk of an international incident leading to war than sending over an American spy plane.

It's just wrong then to say that Eisenhower had no interest in space; for this specific purpose his interest was strong. It was just that, with the best minds he could find working on a secret rocket project, it was necessary to mask this with a second, open, project, and he did allow that project to bog down because too much White House interference in what was supposed to be an ivory tower scientific program might raise questions as to the true nature of Vanguard and just why the President cared so much.

On the other hand, I am not sure just when Eisenhower was convinced that a series of spysats would be a possible and good solution to his intelligence dilemmas, at a guess I'd say no earlier than 1954. I'm also not sure just how early the idea would have percolated upward in the bureaucratic chain of command to land on the desk of any Presidential intelligence or science advisor, nor even how early space enthusiasts would have made the proposal for that mission seriously. In the 1940s, probably there would have been little confidence that an automated machine could have done the job and such notions would have been linked to the idea of putting a human being into orbit, which of course greatly complicates the matter by requiring a method of landing that person, along with their negatives, safely. The mass of a capsule that can carry and sustain a person is greater. (Though actually spysats, especially early ones, needed a lot of mass too, for good telescopic camera lenses, and as technology progressed allowing a spysat of a given capability to be smaller, the ambitions increased at a faster pace and the trend was for spysats to get bigger and bigger in fact). So that would have made early surveillance satellite proposals that much more blue-sky and remote--and meanwhile, since we are putting at least one human into space, mixed the surveillance mission in with many other objectives. After all the first human launched into orbit would be big big news, lots of luck trying to keep it secret!

So I don't think it was just cultural conservatism that marginalized the space program until the latter half of the 50s. It was realism that pointed out that a satellite, unless it was just a dumb hunk of metal just to score prestige points (or a passive comsat like Echo) would be a manned mission, much harder to achieve.

Could a crash program determined for some unspecified reason to accomplish that as quick as possible have done so before Yuri Gagarin actually became the first man in orbit in 1961? Or even before Sputnik in 1957? I suppose, with enough effort, it might have been done. I do think we'd want more advanced rocket engines than the alcohol-burning V-2 engines! With lots of them clustered, with lots of stages, with an escape system for a capsule for the pilot because launch failure would be quite likely, maybe this might have been done by 1950, using kerosene-like rocket fuel and liquid oxygen, or possibly the "storable" hypergolic room-temperature acids used by the Titan rockets that launched Gemini OTL--these latter are very nasty stuff though, I personally would push for ker-lox.

So, maybe a decade more advanced, but the capabilities of a given system would be less than their OTL counterparts a decade later, and their costs much higher.

And one still has to think of a motive for a government to put that high a priority on it. Especially when the decision-makers involved would presume that gradual progress on all fronts, particularly linked to the development of ballistic missiles that both Americans and Russians were keen enough on doing, would solve many problems for them and eventually bring the capability within their grasp without a crash program, so the hypothetical alt-motivation would have to be of an emergency character that could not wait patiently like that.

The best I can think of is, an alien spaceship strands itself in orbit and the mission is to get to it and claim it first.
 
Hence, Vanguard, as a nominally civil and scientific program. The plan was, Vanguard would launch first, and the Soviets would say nothing against the obviously harmless and completely public program. Then after a few of these successes, other American rockets could start launching other satellites with a minimum of fanfare or publicity. The Russians might start crying foul at that point, but having established the principle of limited airspace and the international character of orbital space, Eisenhower hoped, their objections would have limited force, and eventually they'd reflect that they too could have free surveillance of the USA from satellites of their own. Since Eisenhower offered the Russians the "Open Skies" proposal whereby each nation would be allowed to send verifiably unarmed scout planes over the other freely, I think he'd anticipate and accept reciprocal Soviet spysats as inevitable, fair, and not undesirable, since honest information about what both sides were doing would tend to cool down war fevers.

More to it than that. As I pointed out in my previous post, the Vanguards provided (and continue to provide) a great deal of information about the upper atmosphere through careful observation of their orbital decay. This is obviously of value for, say, designing ballistic missile RVs.

Early Corona attempts were a long series of failures by the way, I believe it took them ten launch attempts to finally get a spysat up that took useful pictures and then returned them recoverably to Earth. But I believe that first successfully recovered set of pictures was delivered to Eisenhower before he left office so he could see the fruits of his policies. However much money it cost to put up that finally successful rocket, and factoring in the costs of the failures that had preceeded it, not one American risked being shot down over Russia to get these pictures; with the legal metaphysics of "who owns orbital space?" settled in favor of an analog with the open seas rather than extended national sovereignty, by the Soviets themselves, there was much less risk of an international incident leading to war than sending over an American spy plane.

13. It was the 13th "Discoverer" that was the first to actually succeed from end to end.

It's just wrong then to say that Eisenhower had no interest in space; for this specific purpose his interest was strong. It was just that, with the best minds he could find working on a secret rocket project, it was necessary to mask this with a second, open, project, and he did allow that project to bog down because too much White House interference in what was supposed to be an ivory tower scientific program might raise questions as to the true nature of Vanguard and just why the President cared so much.

Vanguard was being run by the Navy, I have to point out. There's no particular reason you couldn't have had a similar program being run by the Army or the Air Force, both of whom would have been much better qualified at that point in time. It would have been perfectly understandable for the President to interfere in it, especially as it was supposed to be a major part of a large international scientific effort (the 1957 IGY).

On the other hand, I am not sure just when Eisenhower was convinced that a series of spysats would be a possible and good solution to his intelligence dilemmas, at a guess I'd say no earlier than 1954. I'm also not sure just how early the idea would have percolated upward in the bureaucratic chain of command to land on the desk of any Presidential intelligence or science advisor, nor even how early space enthusiasts would have made the proposal for that mission seriously. In the 1940s, probably there would have been little confidence that an automated machine could have done the job and such notions would have been linked to the idea of putting a human being into orbit, which of course greatly complicates the matter by requiring a method of landing that person, along with their negatives, safely. The mass of a capsule that can carry and sustain a person is greater. (Though actually spysats, especially early ones, needed a lot of mass too, for good telescopic camera lenses, and as technology progressed allowing a spysat of a given capability to be smaller, the ambitions increased at a faster pace and the trend was for spysats to get bigger and bigger in fact). So that would have made early surveillance satellite proposals that much more blue-sky and remote--and meanwhile, since we are putting at least one human into space, mixed the surveillance mission in with many other objectives. After all the first human launched into orbit would be big big news, lots of luck trying to keep it secret!

It would have been possible...and automated recon sats were actually being proposed in the late 1940s. Mostly as a "well, this is where it could go, but we need to do R&D to figure out how to actually do it" sort of thing, though. (They did do that R&D, so that by the early 1950s everything was pretty much lined up for the various spysat programs). You might want to go look up Dwayne Day's posts on The Space Review if you haven't, since he's a space historian who sort of specializes in spysats.

So I don't think it was just cultural conservatism that marginalized the space program until the latter half of the 50s. It was realism that pointed out that a satellite, unless it was just a dumb hunk of metal just to score prestige points (or a passive comsat like Echo) would be a manned mission, much harder to achieve.

Eh, not really. Automated satellites were certainly being proposed by the late 1940s, as I said above. And there are useful missions that you can do with electronics-less machines, like the Vanguards I mentioned above or, as you say, the Echoes.

Could a crash program determined for some unspecified reason to accomplish that as quick as possible have done so before Yuri Gagarin actually became the first man in orbit in 1961? Or even before Sputnik in 1957? I suppose, with enough effort, it might have been done. I do think we'd want more advanced rocket engines than the alcohol-burning V-2 engines! With lots of them clustered, with lots of stages, with an escape system for a capsule for the pilot because launch failure would be quite likely, maybe this might have been done by 1950, using kerosene-like rocket fuel and liquid oxygen, or possibly the "storable" hypergolic room-temperature acids used by the Titan rockets that launched Gemini OTL--these latter are very nasty stuff though, I personally would push for ker-lox.

They were a couple of years away from figuring out nitrogen tetroxide and hydrazine in 1950, although they were spending a great deal of time and effort on it (since hypergolics are much more militarily useful than cryogens, and they hadn't worked out solids quite yet). Oxygen-alcohol would probably be close to the best they could do at that point, with alkane-based fuels like kerosene coming in second (the problem there was that they didn't have sufficiently pure kerosene quite yet, although it probably wouldn't have been much of an issue to do it). Alcohol/oxygen is perfectly sufficient if you don't want to do all that much, though, just throw up a little robot sphere or someone in a can or something like that. Not a lot of growth potential, maybe, but that's not really a big issue, you can always design new rockets.

Really, a greater early focus on ballistic missiles without all the time wasted on intercontinental cruise missiles would be better for the space program than anything else, but that in turn requires someone to figure out blunt bodies and ablative shielding earlier, so...
 
on V2 as satellite launcher
you don't need to modified the rocket, just put 2 small stages on it and satellite of 150kg !
so is a analog of the French Diamant A, it's first stage is almost same in mass and size of a V2.
Err... No. I'll admit I may have gotten my numbers wrong on the V-2, but here's a comparison from Astronautix.com FWIW.
V-2
  • Stage 1. 1 x A-4. Gross Mass: 12,805 kg (28,230 lb). Empty Mass: 4,008 kg (8,836 lb)

Diamant A
  • Stage 1. 1 x Diamant-1. Gross Mass: 14,685 kg (32,374 lb). Empty Mass: 1,946 kg
So, while the gross masses were comparable, the V2, with lower gross mass actually has a higher empty mass.
So, additional stages at the same ratio would give you a miniscule orbital payload. Nicht wahr?
 
So, while the gross masses were comparable, the V2, with lower gross mass actually has a higher empty mass.
So, additional stages at the same ratio would give you a miniscule orbital payload. Nicht wahr?

oh yes that is true
but the French satellite Asterix had mass of 42 kg
USA Vanguard 1 satellite had even a mass of 1.47 kg !
his only payload was a solar-power transmitters for engineering and tracking data
so a low mass satellite could be launch by V2 with two additional stage.
 
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