Your challenge is, with a PoD no earlier than the Napoleonic wars, to allow for Metropolitan Spain to have a population equivalent to that of France by 1900. Bonus points if it's equivalent to Germany's population by then; much bigger bonus if it's equivalent to the UK. So how can it be done?
AHC: Larger Spanish Population
- Thread starter Shtudmuffin
- Start date
Wiping out most of the population of France and Germany would be the easiest way to do it. A really nasty WWII (or WWIII, a la CalBear's Anglo-American Nazi War).
Spanish land isn't nearly as productive as France's or Germany's, so they can't support as many people. Small countries, wealthy countries like the Netherlands can import enough food, and so can very wealthy global traders like Britain. Spain would have to change drastically to be able to afford that much imported food, IMO.
Spanish land isn't nearly as productive as France's or Germany's, so they can't support as many people. Small countries, wealthy countries like the Netherlands can import enough food, and so can very wealthy global traders like Britain. Spain would have to change drastically to be able to afford that much imported food, IMO.
wolf_brother
Banned
According to Wikipedia between 1850 and 1950 some 3.5 million Spaniards left for the New World, mostly to the former Spanish colonies. Stopping that in some way would be the best bet towards maintaining population parity with France (without turning this into a French-screw, as Dathi THorfinnsson suggests). Perhaps someone other than Isabella comes to power? She certainly was a fairly weak ruler, especially in her early reign.
Coincidentally, I notice you open a lot of threads on the subject of mid-19th century Europe Shtudmuffin. Is there a TL in the planning stages there or just curiosity?
Coincidentally, I notice you open a lot of threads on the subject of mid-19th century Europe Shtudmuffin. Is there a TL in the planning stages there or just curiosity?
I imagine keeping Spain as one of the top great powers by completely changing their 17th century is the best way. Britain would still be quite small if not for it's massive wealth and empire, and realistically shpuld not be supporting more than Spain based on what the island produces, but its position as the greatest great power going into the 20th century made their population expand to match their reputation. Having the most important trading center in the world can do wonders for your population size.
So, do for Spain what was done for Britain and you should be able to achieve that level of population.
So, do for Spain what was done for Britain and you should be able to achieve that level of population.
Doing for Spain what was done for Britain would require an entirely different Spain with PODs well before the 17th century.
Heck, keeping Spain a Great Power in the 17th, alone, requires such PODs. The system is exhausted and replacing it isn't going to be some sort of "Adopt Realistic Policies!" Decision.
Heck, keeping Spain a Great Power in the 17th, alone, requires such PODs. The system is exhausted and replacing it isn't going to be some sort of "Adopt Realistic Policies!" Decision.
Spanish terrain isn't improductive. Quite the opposite, it is fertile, and well suited for the growing of annual crops like cereals.
The emigration in the XIX and XX centuries mostly affected poor regions which already had high population densities, near the European numbers. The great population hole is the central mesa, despite, as i said, being well suited for the growing of crops.
In the little i know, I think the biggest problem was how the kingdom of Castille favored greatly the migrating livestock industry, because it produced great benefits for the crown (wool cloth selling). Focusing your strongest and most dynamic territory (Castille) into an activity that had very little food production return could have been a reason for its stunted demographic growth.
This could be coupled with the colonization of America: if you already have a weak vegetative growth, and then you promote the colonization of a whole continent, the area that produces the colonists is going to be further demographically weakened.
If these two naive assumptions are correct, for Spain thrive demographically it could have been necessary to remove the privileges had by the "Honrado Concejo de la Mesta" (the "trade union" of the migrating livestock ranchers), and perhaps giving new privileges to land holders from cities.
Failing that, the colonization of America could have been delayed till Castille had a critical mass of population, and use a system of coastal factories, like the Portuguese did.
The emigration in the XIX and XX centuries mostly affected poor regions which already had high population densities, near the European numbers. The great population hole is the central mesa, despite, as i said, being well suited for the growing of crops.
In the little i know, I think the biggest problem was how the kingdom of Castille favored greatly the migrating livestock industry, because it produced great benefits for the crown (wool cloth selling). Focusing your strongest and most dynamic territory (Castille) into an activity that had very little food production return could have been a reason for its stunted demographic growth.
This could be coupled with the colonization of America: if you already have a weak vegetative growth, and then you promote the colonization of a whole continent, the area that produces the colonists is going to be further demographically weakened.
If these two naive assumptions are correct, for Spain thrive demographically it could have been necessary to remove the privileges had by the "Honrado Concejo de la Mesta" (the "trade union" of the migrating livestock ranchers), and perhaps giving new privileges to land holders from cities.
Failing that, the colonization of America could have been delayed till Castille had a critical mass of population, and use a system of coastal factories, like the Portuguese did.
Erm, Britain (62 mln) is the least populace of the three, France (65 mln) has a few million more than Britain and Germany (81.8 mln) has nearly 20 million more than both.
Which has a huge impact on Castile in ways that no king wants - the Mesta are both loyal to the crown and a good source of income.
Colonization is not something like EU or Civ where the king has much sway in how many people head overseas, though.
The Spanish, however, ore one of the most strict in controlling who would go. You could only get there starting your journey from a couple of ports, and your background was checked to make sure you were an "old Christian". No foreigners were allowed in the Americas. Of course, there were many exceptions, an many got through, but these controls worked, to a certain extent
True. But in the sense of "Send colonists!", that was a decision of the people - subject to this mechanicism - not the kings.
And trying to bar all people who want to settle in the Americas sounds almost impossible to enforce.
I'm considering a TL, but it's still stuck in the planning stage. I have yet to do any pre-writing.
If the PoD has to happen no before than the Napoleonic wars, all i can think of is:
Napoleon, who already had a good part of the royal family as prisioners, advices his brother Joseph to seize up the rest. As the Spanish Independence War progresses, Napoleon and his brother realize that keeping them as hostages isn't helping at all to keep the Spaniards from revolting, even worse, it's giving them hope to overthrow the French (Fernando VII was nicknamed "the wished for one" at the time). So it's decided, that the whole royal family will be executed, and so it's done, shortly after.
With this PoD (dunno how much of ASB it is...), you can ensure that there will be no Carlist civil wars, at the very least (a huge drain of resources and population). You can also have Cadiz Constitution to last a lot longer, maybe even enough to transform Spain into an actual constitutional monarchy.
A King would have to be brought from outside, there would have to be an election, kinda like it was needed much later on in OTL. Even if a republic (monarchy with vacant throne, actually) could be stablished at first, chosing an actual king would be necessary to avoid the intervention of the 100,000 children of St. Louis. Depending on who you chose to become king of Spain (to make it realistic, the Court would chose someone who was trusted to believe in the values of the Constitution), you can have a much different XIX century for Spain.
In fact, without Riego's Pronunciamiento, a large chunk of the American territories could be kept. Not only manu militari: 1812 Constitution acknowledged all the inhabitants of Spanish America were Spaniards all the same, and with the same rights, as those who lived in the peninsule. This certainly would satisfy many of the liberals who were behind the american independences.
Additionally, a liberal constitutional monarchy would be politically very close to Britain, which added to the militar collaboration fighting against Napoleon, might make both countries close allies. If the Spaniards began to look up to Britain instead of to France, they could take lessons on how they used the resources from their colonies to bolster the industry of the metropolis. Doing this, the population of the British islands tripled during the XIX century. Could the same happen in Spain?
Edit: regarding the American independences, i don't think the success of the revolt could be avoided in Mexico, Argentina, Chile and the Great Colombia. So Spain might get to hold Perú, Bolivia, Central America and the Caribbean islands. Maybe chunks of Mexico here and there. I don't know how hard the US pushed to obtain Florida from Spain in OTL, so Spain keeping that too is a posibility to explore.
Napoleon, who already had a good part of the royal family as prisioners, advices his brother Joseph to seize up the rest. As the Spanish Independence War progresses, Napoleon and his brother realize that keeping them as hostages isn't helping at all to keep the Spaniards from revolting, even worse, it's giving them hope to overthrow the French (Fernando VII was nicknamed "the wished for one" at the time). So it's decided, that the whole royal family will be executed, and so it's done, shortly after.
With this PoD (dunno how much of ASB it is...), you can ensure that there will be no Carlist civil wars, at the very least (a huge drain of resources and population). You can also have Cadiz Constitution to last a lot longer, maybe even enough to transform Spain into an actual constitutional monarchy.
A King would have to be brought from outside, there would have to be an election, kinda like it was needed much later on in OTL. Even if a republic (monarchy with vacant throne, actually) could be stablished at first, chosing an actual king would be necessary to avoid the intervention of the 100,000 children of St. Louis. Depending on who you chose to become king of Spain (to make it realistic, the Court would chose someone who was trusted to believe in the values of the Constitution), you can have a much different XIX century for Spain.
In fact, without Riego's Pronunciamiento, a large chunk of the American territories could be kept. Not only manu militari: 1812 Constitution acknowledged all the inhabitants of Spanish America were Spaniards all the same, and with the same rights, as those who lived in the peninsule. This certainly would satisfy many of the liberals who were behind the american independences.
Additionally, a liberal constitutional monarchy would be politically very close to Britain, which added to the militar collaboration fighting against Napoleon, might make both countries close allies. If the Spaniards began to look up to Britain instead of to France, they could take lessons on how they used the resources from their colonies to bolster the industry of the metropolis. Doing this, the population of the British islands tripled during the XIX century. Could the same happen in Spain?
Edit: regarding the American independences, i don't think the success of the revolt could be avoided in Mexico, Argentina, Chile and the Great Colombia. So Spain might get to hold Perú, Bolivia, Central America and the Caribbean islands. Maybe chunks of Mexico here and there. I don't know how hard the US pushed to obtain Florida from Spain in OTL, so Spain keeping that too is a posibility to explore.
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