July 20th, A Day Which Will Live in Victory

[The Man From Nevada]

What if the July 20th assassination plot on Hitler was successful? Would Germany try for peace with just tge Western Allies and go all out on USSR? Or would Germany sign a full peace? What would happen?

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by The Man From Nevada

What if the July 20th assassination plot on Hitler was successful? Would Germany try for peace with just tge Western Allies and go all out on USSR? Or would Germany sign a full peace? What would happen?

The Western Allies wouldn't accept a seperate peace with Germany or even a offical surrender that was announced to be just to Western Allied forces.

The only thing they would accept at that point in 1944 would be battlefield surrenders in the West so that it doesn't look like they are screwing over Stalin while they are getting to central Europe far faster then OTL.

People need to remember that America and the British were at war with Germany and its people not just its government. They also believed Stalin was an honorable and trustworthy indivisual (at least the U.S. did) and even many in the British government were hoodwinked by him. A simple change in German government not backed up by massive military success on the part of Germany which wasn't possible at that point wouldn't alter any of those facts.

The failure of the July 20th Plot and Rommel being strafed by a plane three days before then meant that the hopes to end the war in 1944 and with the Western Allies having a much larger say in redrawing the lines of central Europe and deciding who gets what with the occupation zones went out the window.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by The Man From Nevada

Would Germany try for peace with just tge Western Allies and go all out on USSR?

They undoubtedly would have tried to negotiate a peace with the western powers while continuing the war against the Soviet Union and equally undoubtedly their offer would have been rejected; the Big Three had already agreed (in Tehran, nearly a year before the bomb plot) on unconditional surrender, occupation and dismemberment of the Third Reich. Churchill in particular believed that the Prussian Junkerism needed to be permanently purged from the German psyche and had agreed with Stalin that East Prussia, the birthplace of Junkerism, would be divided between Poland and Russia. The discussions concerning East Prussia actually took place in late 1941, when the Germans were approaching the outskirts of Moscow, which just goes to show that Stalin for one was planning several moves ahead.

The bomb plot would definitely have shortened the war; the confusion and dislocation caused by the coup and probably a civil war between the army on one side and the Nazi party apparatus and SS on the other, would have been devastating to the war effort and with the collapse of the central authority various commanders would have probably opted to surrender unilaterally, Kesselring and Wolff in Italy for example. But the Junta, assuming they actually managed to seize power in Berlin, which given the incompetence with which they carried out their assassination attempt is a real stretch, would have been terribly disappointed to discover that no-one outside of Germany had the least interest in ending the war with Germany undefeated and unoccupied.

[Noravea]

I could see, depending on who takes over Germany, a sneaky way to get past the W. Allies not accepting a peace, and still screw Stalin in the end. Germany gives up on the Western Front, and knowing the war is lost, allocate resources to the Eastern Front and allow the Allies to occupy Germany from the west.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by Noravea

Germany gives up on the Western Front, and knowing the war is lost, allocate resources to the Eastern Front and allow the Allies to occupy Germany from the west.

The allies occupy Germany, and in accordance with their previous agreements, hand over the east to their ally: Stalin.

[Noravea]

Originally Posted by Cook

The allies occupy Germany, and in accordance with their previous agreements, hand over the east to their ally: Stalin.

I thought the final Post-War agreements weren't agreed upon until 1945. I'm sure the Iron Curtain can be pushed to the Vistula and Danube if the Western Allies get lucky.

[yourworstnightmare]

No one cares Germany sues for peace. They demand unconditional surrender. Both Western Allies and Soviet at this point.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by Noravea

I thought the final Post-War agreements weren't agreed upon until 1945. I'm sure the Iron Curtain can be pushed to the Vistula and Danube if the Western Allies get lucky.

Yes, but that was minor quibbling, like do the French get a zone and where. The big decisions were made much earlier. I believe we had this discussion in one of the DDay threads, where it became clear that the borders had been set before then.

[Hörnla]

Excuse me but - including the French as a fourth occupier was anything but minor.
I am not saying that this changes everything, but if the WAllies get into Germany with double speed and half the casualties, while Uncle Joe gets at least slowed down, it will habe some repercussions on the final outlook of Europe.

Also, I would say, that under the given conditions of such a "fighting surrender" the WAllies effort should be re-directed away from air-strikes, but into supporting the mobility and logistics of their advance (that is, if they understand what bring them forward!).

Germany will be dismantled and occupied, still. Perhaps the Soviet zone gets a bit smaller (minus Thuringia perhaps....someone must have seen the Fulda gap already on the first maps!). Perhaps Stalin gets no Austrian zone.

But the odds are higher that there is less of a tendency to pass whole countries into a "90% Soviet influence"-box.

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by Noravea

I thought the final Post-War agreements weren't agreed upon until 1945. I'm sure the Iron Curtain can be pushed to the Vistula and Danube if the Western Allies get lucky.

Two of the most important were held in 1945 which were Yalta in Feb and Potsdam in July.

Also, I would say, that under the given conditions of such a "fighting surrender" the WAllies effort should be re-directed away from air-strikes, but into supporting the mobility and logistics of their advance (that is, if they understand what bring them forward!).

The fire bombings of civilian targets by that point had become an accepted way of fighting the war, but lets just say it would be a fair bit less popular in the West burning countless German civilians alive if you had a non-Nazi government who was asking for peace and waging a retreating campaign in the West.

[modelcitizen]

Originally Posted by jmc247

The fire bombings of civilian targets by that point had become an accepted way of fighting the war, but lets just say it would be a fair bit less popular in the West burning countless German civilians alive if you had a non-Nazi government who was asking for peace and waging a retreating campaign in the West.

A non-Nazi government that had offed Hitler. I wonder what kind of pressure would be brought to bear on allied governments...

[Stolengood]

I asked this question a few months ago; dunno if the thread should be restarted, but it generated 10 or so pages of discussion, so: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=239470

(Incidentally, didn't even know Snake'd been banned for more than a month until I looked at that thread; shame he won't be able to continue his "Arafat's Great Gamble" TL... )

[MattII]

Assuming the conspirators win and move the majority of their forces east, how much further east could the border be drawn, could we in fact see an at least partially free Poland (I'm imagining a region with a border somewhere along the line of Elbląg, Warsaw, Poznań and Szczecin/Stettin)?

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by modelcitizen

A non-Nazi government that had offed Hitler. I wonder what kind of pressure would be brought to bear on allied governments...

The problem is London and Washington could just tell their people these guys are ardent Nazis and like any hard core Nazis they killed their boss because they want total power for themselves and most people would have believed it because the British and American public had no idea who this Beck guy was.

That was why many of the plotters wanted Rommel as either Reichspräsident or Chancellor if it worked, because they needed someone to be the face of the government to the West that it would be harder for the Western Allies to wave away to their people as just another evil power hungry Nazi.

By the way for those here who don't know about Beck.

In 1943, Beck planned two abortive attempts to kill Hitler by means of a bomb. In May 1944, a memorandum by Field Marshal Erwin Rommel made it clear that his participation in the proposed putsch was based on the precondition that Beck serve as the head of state in the new government. In 1944, he was one of the driving forces of the 20 July plot with Carl Goerdeler and Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg. It was proposed that Beck would become the head of the provisional government that would assume power in Germany after Hitler had been eliminated

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Beck

[The Kiat]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

No one cares Germany sues for peace. They demand unconditional surrender. Both Western Allies and Soviet at this point.

If the plotters killed Hitler, they would be most disappointed about the war's outcome. That being said, they're better off trying to make a deal with Stalin; he wouldn't hesitate to screw over the allies. Or at least he'd be the most likely of the three to be pragmatic.

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by The Kiat

If the plotters killed Hitler, they would be most disappointed about the war's outcome. That being said, they're better off trying to make a deal with Stalin; he wouldn't hesitate to screw over the allies. Or at least he'd be the most likely of the three to be pragmatic.

That is actually correct and Stalin was seriously considering making a seperate peace with Hitler himself as late as 1943/early 44. Its simply that Hitler by that point would rather eat a bullet then make peace with him.

Stalin if he felt it would be to his advantage would be willing to make a seperate peace and watch as Germany and the Western Allies bleed themselves big time before stepping back into the ring when he feels the time is right.

[Paul V McNutt]

I think Goering takes over but there is a power struggle.

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by Paul V McNutt

I think Goering takes over but there is a power struggle.

There was a conflict over to kill or not to kill Goering as part of the plot and Stauffenberg's view of a 'limited purge' did win out.



Stauffenberg reminds me a fair bit like Brutus at least in so far as his sense of honor meant that he couldn't see that a real coup against a popular leader would require a deeper purge against not only the leader, but his key supporters in the government and other potental rivals of the coup plotters.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by jmc247

There was a conflict over to kill or not to kill Goering as part of the plot and Stauffenberg's view of a 'limited purge' did win out.



Stauffenberg reminds me a fair bit like Brutus at least in so far as his sense of honor meant that he couldn't see that a real coup against a popular leader would require a deeper purge against not only the leader, but his key supporters in the government and other potental rivals of the coup plotters.

Everything I've read (Fest, Fitzgibbon) said that the Schwarze Kappelle wanted to get Hitler, Himmler, and Goering in one bang. There were several plans to get all three, and at least one attempt in early 1944 was aborted because one of the "big three" wouldn't be there.

The 20 July attempt on Hitler alone was made because the SK decided time was running out.

Also, Rommel was never a formal member of the SK, and IIRC wanted Hitler arrested and put on trial, not assassinated.

[lucaswillen05]

Ther may well have been a collapse on the Russian Front. Following the Destruction of Army Group Centre Model was still holding things together. Things were still holding together in France but assuming Operation Cobra went as per OTL the Wehrmacht would have had to pull back but probably the Mortain Counter attack and the Falaise Pocket would not have happened. The Wehrmach couldf have made a more efective fighting withdrawl in France. The end would probably have some similarities to the end of WW1 with some form of Armistice agreed in the autumn of 1944 as the Allies approached Germany's borders. Probably would have been a similar ending to the end of the First World War in Europe.